Collaborative Design & Development of Petroleum Sector Performance

Indicators (PSI)

Collaborative Design & Development of Petroleum Sector Performance

Indicators (PSI)

(January 2007)(January 2007)

A research project of the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)

PSI Purpose & ObjectivesPSI Purpose & Objectives

• Find common language for policy debate

• Create capacity for fact-based discourse

• Integrate multiple and disparate data sources

• Reflect multiplicity of dimensions: supply, demand, efficiency, trade, prices, carbon emissions

• Find common language for policy debate

• Create capacity for fact-based discourse

• Integrate multiple and disparate data sources

• Reflect multiplicity of dimensions: supply, demand, efficiency, trade, prices, carbon emissions

• Find key measures of sector performance

• Provide perspective:– For U.S. and World

– Reserves & production

– GDP and economics

– Structure of markets

• Track transportation sector performance: fuels & alternatives

• Find key measures of sector performance

• Provide perspective:– For U.S. and World

– Reserves & production

– GDP and economics

– Structure of markets

• Track transportation sector performance: fuels & alternatives

PSI DriversPSI Drivers

– Undefined political terminology:• ‘energy independence” “oil addiction”

– Inadequate measures of performance:• “reduce imports from volatile Middle-east”

– Highly complex market structure• Physical trade a fraction of total trade

– Dispersed and variably accessible data:• EIA, IEA, private industry

– Fragmented and non-comparable data:• On global fuel economy, alternative vehicles and fuels

– Undefined political terminology:• ‘energy independence” “oil addiction”

– Inadequate measures of performance:• “reduce imports from volatile Middle-east”

– Highly complex market structure• Physical trade a fraction of total trade

– Dispersed and variably accessible data:• EIA, IEA, private industry

– Fragmented and non-comparable data:• On global fuel economy, alternative vehicles and fuels

Roots of Energy Independence PoliciesRoots of Energy Independence Policies

• “Let us unite in a major new endeavor that in this bicentennial era we can appropriately call ‘Project Independence.” Richard M. Nixon, 7 November 1973

• “We must wage a simultaneous three-front campaign against recession, inflation and energy dependence.” Gerald Ford, 13 January 1975

• “Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people, and the ability of the President to govern this nation. This effort will b the moral equivalent of war.” Jimmy Carter, 18 April 1977

• “Let us unite in a major new endeavor that in this bicentennial era we can appropriately call ‘Project Independence.” Richard M. Nixon, 7 November 1973

• “We must wage a simultaneous three-front campaign against recession, inflation and energy dependence.” Gerald Ford, 13 January 1975

• “Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people, and the ability of the President to govern this nation. This effort will b the moral equivalent of war.” Jimmy Carter, 18 April 1977

SupplySupply

• Over 100 nations produce oil

• Over 80 nations export oil

• Estimates of NOC-controlled proved reserves range from 60% to 90%

• Surplus world production capacity in 2006 remains exclusive to Saudi Arabia

• Over 100 nations produce oil

• Over 80 nations export oil

• Estimates of NOC-controlled proved reserves range from 60% to 90%

• Surplus world production capacity in 2006 remains exclusive to Saudi Arabia

Coal

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Natural Gas Liquids

NuclearHydro

Other

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

400

300

200

100

0

Qu

ad

rilli

on

BT

UWorld Energy ProductionWorld Energy Production

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, 2003

24%

24%

3%

36%

6%

6%

1%

Global Proved Reserves (Top 30 = 1.2 Trillion Barrels)

Global Proved Reserves (Top 30 = 1.2 Trillion Barrels)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390

Saudi Arabia25.0%

Kuwait9.7%

Iraq10.9%

Iran13.1%

Qatar1.4%

Oman0.3%

UAE9.3%

Latin America NOCs9.8%

Russia NOCs6.8%

Asia NOCs2.1%

Africa NOCs6.6%

Europe NOCs1.0%

Exxon/Mobil1.0%

Shell0.5%

ConocoPhillips0.6%

Chevron0.9%

BP0.9%

Investor owned oil reserves are roughly 4% of global total

World Crude Oil ProductionWorld Crude Oil Production

Source: EIA International Petroleum Monthly, World Oil Production.http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.htmlNote: Includes condensates.

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mil

lio

n B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

Other

Russia

Asia

South America

Canada/Mexico

United States

Europe

Africa

Persian Gulf

World Crude Oil Production(2005 World Total=78.3 MMB/D)

World Crude Oil Production(2005 World Total=78.3 MMB/D)

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2006http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html

Note: Includes condensates.

States7%

North Sea6%

Iran5%

China5%Mexico

4%

Norway3%

Nigeria3%

UAE3%

Russia12%

Venezuela 3%

Canada3%

Algeria2% Iraq

2%

UK2%

Brazil2%

Angola2%

Libya2%

Gabon0%

Syria0%

Australia1%

Colombia1%

Indonesia1%

Kuwait3%

Oman1%Qatar

1%

Argentina1%Malaysia

1%

Other8%

Ecuador1%

India1%

Egypt1%

Saudi Arabia12%

World Oil Surplus Production CapacityWorld Oil Surplus Production Capacity

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1991

-199

719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

06

Mil

lio

n B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

Other OPEC

Iran

Venezuela

Kuwait

United Arab Emirates

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Th

ou

sa

nd

Ba

rre

ls/D

ay

Actual

1991 Forecast

1996 Forecast

Source: USGS, McCabe, 2005

U.S. Crude Oil Production and Campbell’s Forecasts of Production

U.S. Crude Oil Production and Campbell’s Forecasts of Production

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

World Crude Oil ReplenishmentWorld Crude Oil Replenishment

Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, Crude Oil Production and Crude Oil Proved Reserves; University of Texas-Austin, Center for Energy Economics.

21 68155

949

29

1189

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

1947 Reserves 1948-04Production

2005 Reserves

U.S.

World

World Crude Oil Distillation CapacityWorld Crude Oil Distillation Capacity

Source: EIA International Energy Annual, World Petroleum Data.http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2004/table36.xls

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

China

India

Asia & Oceania

Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Central & South America

Europe

North America

World Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (2006)

World Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (2006)

Source: EIA International Energy Annual, World Petroleum Data.http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2004/table36.xls

United States 20%

China 7%

Russia6%

Japan 5%

Korea, South 3%

Germany3%

Italy 3%

India 3%

All Other18%

Ukraine1%

Kuwait 1%

Indonesia 1%

Taiwan 1%

Netherlands 1%

Spain 1%

Singapore 2%

Venezuela 2%

Australia 1%

Thailand 1%

Saudi Arabia 2%Canada

2%France 2%

Brazil 2%

United Kingdom 2%

Mexico 2%

United Arab Emirates

1%Belgium

1%

Turkey 1%

Egypt 1%

Iran 2%

Oil Consumption Oil Consumption

• World consumption: 84 million barrels/day

• U.S. consumption: 21 million barrels/day

• U.S. oil expenditures: ~$800 billion/year

• U.S. oil expenditures: 3% of GDP

• Global trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day

• Value of U.S. imports: ~$250 billion/year

• U.S. oil imports: ~34% of trade imbalance

• World consumption: 84 million barrels/day

• U.S. consumption: 21 million barrels/day

• U.S. oil expenditures: ~$800 billion/year

• U.S. oil expenditures: 3% of GDP

• Global trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day

• Value of U.S. imports: ~$250 billion/year

• U.S. oil imports: ~34% of trade imbalance

World Crude Oil ConsumptionWorld Crude Oil Consumption

Sources: 1970-1979: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database; 1980-2004: EIA International Petroleum Monthly

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe

r D

ay

India

China

Asia & Oceania ExChina, IndiaAfrica

Eurasia

Central & SouthAmericaMiddle East

Europe

North America

Crude Oil Trade Movements (Imports)

Crude Oil Trade Movements (Imports)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

Rest of World

Europe

USA

Japan

Crude Oil Trade Movements(Exports)

Crude Oil Trade Movements(Exports)

* - European export data not available prior to 1993.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.

http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

USA

Rest of World

Europe*

Mexico

Canada

Asia Pacific

North Africa

West Africa

South & Central America

Former Soviet Union

Middle East

Petroleum ImportsPetroleum Imports

• U.S. imports: 13.7 million barrels/day

• U.S. imports rose by 2.2 million barrels/day between 2002 and 2005

• In same period, Chinese imports rose by 1.8 million barrels/day, and

• Indian imports rose by 0.45 million barrels/day

• U.S. imports: 13.7 million barrels/day

• U.S. imports rose by 2.2 million barrels/day between 2002 and 2005

• In same period, Chinese imports rose by 1.8 million barrels/day, and

• Indian imports rose by 0.45 million barrels/day

U.S. Dependence on Oil Imports(As Percentage of Total Oil Consumption)

U.S. Dependence on Oil Imports(As Percentage of Total Oil Consumption)

Nixon Administration (1974) 37%

Ford Administration (1976) 42%

Carter Administration (1980) 41%

Reagan Administration (1988) 43%

Bush Administration (1992) 46%

Clinton Administration (2000) 58%

Bush Administration (2005) 66%

Nixon Administration (1974) 37%

Ford Administration (1976) 42%

Carter Administration (1980) 41%

Reagan Administration (1988) 43%

Bush Administration (1992) 46%

Clinton Administration (2000) 58%

Bush Administration (2005) 66%Sources: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.xls; EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Product Supplied for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.xls.

U.S. Oil Imports by Source(2005)

U.S. Oil Imports by Source(2005)

Source: U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, EIA Petroleum Navigator

Canada

16%

Mexico

12%

Saudi Arabia

11%

Venezuela

11%

Nigeria

8%

Iraq

4%

Algeria

3%

Angola

3%

Russia

3%

Libya

0%

Netherlands

1%Colombia

1%Norway

2%

All Other Non-OPEC

11%

United Kingdom

3%

U.S. Virgin Islands

2%

Ecuador

2%

Kuwait

2%

Argentina

1%

Brazil

1%

UAE

0%

Indonesia

0%Qatar

0%

U.S. Oil Imports by SourceU.S. Oil Imports by Source

Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Mill

ion

Ba

rre

ls p

er D

ay

Eurasia

Asia & Oceania

Africa

Middle East

Central & SouthAmerica

North America

Europe

U.S. Petroleum Product Imports by Source

U.S. Petroleum Product Imports by Source

Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Petroleum Products Imports by Country of Origin, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_EPP0_im0_mbblpd_a.xls

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Mil

lio

n B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

Eurasia

Asia & Oceania

Europe

North America

Central & South America

Africa

Middle East

U.S. Imports of Petroleum Products by Type

U.S. Imports of Petroleum Products by Type

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, Petroleum Imports by Type, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0503.xls

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

P

Mil

lio

n B

arr

els

pe

r D

ay

Asphalt and Road Oil

Jet Fuel

Liquified Petroleum Gases

Other Products

Residual Fuel Oil

Unfinished Oils

Motor Gasoline BlendingComponents

Motor Gasoline

Distillate Fuel Oil

Petroleum Trade ValuesPetroleum Trade Values

• Global Trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day

• Value of global trade: ~$1 trillion/year

• Value of U.S. oil trade: $250 billion

• Oil share of U.S. trade imbalance: 34%

• Global Trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day

• Value of global trade: ~$1 trillion/year

• Value of U.S. oil trade: $250 billion

• Oil share of U.S. trade imbalance: 34%

U.S. Import and Export Trade Values U.S. Import and Export Trade Values

Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, liquefied propane and butane, and other mineral fuels.

Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Merchandise Trade Value.http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/overview.html

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Bil

lio

n N

om

ina

l D

oll

ars

Petroleum Exports

Petroleum Imports

Total Merchandise Exports

Total Merchandise Imports

U.S. Trade BalancesU.S. Trade Balances

Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, liquefied propane and butane, and other mineral fuels.

Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Merchandise Trade Value.http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/overview.html

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Bil

lio

n N

om

ina

l D

oll

ars

Petroleum Balance

Non-Energy Balance

Total MerchandiseBalance

U.S. Oil ExpendituresU.S. Oil Expenditures

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Bill

ion

200

0$ /

Day

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Per

cen

t o

f G

DP

Oil Expenditures Oil Expenditures as % of GDP

Gasoline Share of Total U.S. Consumption ExpendituresGasoline Share of Total U.S. Consumption Expenditures

Source: NIPA

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

Intensity of Oil ConsumptionIntensity of Oil Consumption

• U.S. oil consumption per unit of GDP declined by 42% between 1980 and 2004

• EU-15 oil consumption/GDP declined by 39% in the same period

• U.S. per capita oil consumption decreased by 5.5% between 1980 and 2004

• EU-15 per capital oil consumption decreased by 4.2% in the same period

• Total U.S. oil consumption increased by 22% between 1980 and 2004

• U.S. oil consumption per unit of GDP declined by 42% between 1980 and 2004

• EU-15 oil consumption/GDP declined by 39% in the same period

• U.S. per capita oil consumption decreased by 5.5% between 1980 and 2004

• EU-15 per capital oil consumption decreased by 4.2% in the same period

• Total U.S. oil consumption increased by 22% between 1980 and 2004

U.S. and EU-15 Oil Consumption per unit GDP and per Capita

U.S. and EU-15 Oil Consumption per unit GDP and per Capita

Sources: EIA International Energy Annual 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base, April 26, 2005; International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2006 Edition.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Ba

rre

ls /

Pe

rso

n

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Ba

rre

ls /

Th

ou

sa

nd

20

00

$

EU15 Per Capita OilConsumption

U.S. Per Capita OilConsumption

EU15 Oil Intensity

U.S. Oil Intensity

U.S. Oil Consumption and Oil Intensity per unit GDP

U.S. Oil Consumption and Oil Intensity per unit GDP

Sources: EIA International Energy Annual 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base, April 26, 2005; International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2006 Edition; EIA International Petroleum Monthly http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1980 1988 1996 2004

Bar

rels

/ T

ho

usa

nd

200

0$

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mil

lio

n B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

U.S. Oil Intensity U.S. Crude Oil Consumption

Strategic & Commercial StocksStrategic & Commercial Stocks

• OECD government-controlled emergency oil stocks: 1.5 billion barrels

• OECD commercial stocks held for strategic purposes: 2.7 billion barrels

• U.S. strategic petroleum reserve: 688 million barrels

• U.S. heating oil reserve: 2.0 million barrels

• OECD government-controlled emergency oil stocks: 1.5 billion barrels

• OECD commercial stocks held for strategic purposes: 2.7 billion barrels

• U.S. strategic petroleum reserve: 688 million barrels

• U.S. heating oil reserve: 2.0 million barrels

World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks(Government Controlled)

World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks(Government Controlled)

Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Datahttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/merquery/mer_data.asp?table=T11.03

* Data prior to 1984 not available.** As of July 2006.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

**

Mill

ion

s o

f B

arre

ls Germany

Other OECD Europe

United States

South Korea*

France

Japan

World Crude Oil Strategic StocksWorld Crude Oil Strategic Stocks

Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data; Medley Global Advisors Oil Brief “China: Stealth SPR Build,” 10/26/2006; Alexander’s Gas and Oil Connections “India to Build up Storage of Crude Oil” 9/21/2004.

0

200

400

600

800

1,0001,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

UnitedStates

France Germany OtherOECD

Europe

Japan SouthKorea

China India

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

Government-Controlled Industry Planned Capacity Expansion

U.S. Total Oil Stocks & Strategic Petroleum Reserves

U.S. Total Oil Stocks & Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2005 and http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/heatingoil/index.html

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

Commercial Oil Stocks Strategic Petroleum ReservesStrategic Home Heating Oil Reserves

Oil Markets & PricesOil Markets & Prices

• Trade in oil is global and integrated

• Physical & financial markets:– Global transactions valued at ~$2.5 trillion/year

• Physical transactions: ~$167 billion

• Futures transactions: ~$299 billion

• Over the Counter (OTC) transactions 3-5 fold larger than physical/futures trade

• Trade in oil is global and integrated

• Physical & financial markets:– Global transactions valued at ~$2.5 trillion/year

• Physical transactions: ~$167 billion

• Futures transactions: ~$299 billion

• Over the Counter (OTC) transactions 3-5 fold larger than physical/futures trade

Source: ESAI

Definitions: ICE – Intercontinental Exchange; OTC – Over the counter; WTI – West Texas Intermediate;Partials – an artificial unit of 25,000 barrels of Oman and Dubai crude; Dated Brent – cargoes with specific loading dates; TAPIS – a crude oil field in Malaysia that serves the same trading purpose as WTI.

World Petroleum Market Structure

NymexWTI ICE

BrentICEWTISaudi

Grades

CanadianGrades

SpotLLS

SpotMars

Mexican Grades

ArgentinaBrazil

ColumbiaEcuador

PeruVenezuela

East Coast

Canadian

Spot WTI

SpotUrals

YemeniGrades

P PlusWTI

PartialsBrent

ForwardBrent

PartialsDubai

PartialsTapis

QatariGrades

KuwaitiGrades

IranianGrades

UAEGrades

IndonesianGrades

AustralianGrades

Chinese,Vietnamese

Grades

SaudiGrades

SpotDubai

TermMinas

TermTapis

EgyptianGrades

Libyan, Syrian, Iranian, AlgerianGrades

Nigerian,AngolanGrades

SaudiGrades

DatedBrent

Mexican Grades

SaudiGrades

Oman Dubai Avg.

Americas AsiaEurope/Africa

Futures

Physical

OTC

Physical and Financial Oil Markets(ESAI)

Physical and Financial Oil Markets(ESAI)

Source: ESAI

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

$Bil

lio

n Total physical crude

Total futures WTI crude

Notional OTC Trade

U.S. Crude Oil PricesU.S. Crude Oil Prices

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005, Crude Oil Domestic First Purchase Prices.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Do

lla

rs p

er

Ba

rre

l

Nominal

2005 Dollars

Gasoline and Ethanol Wholesale Prices, January 2000 – September 2005

Gasoline and Ethanol Wholesale Prices, January 2000 – September 2005

Source: Axxis/ACE

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005

Do

lla

rs p

er

Ga

llo

n

Ethanol

No-Lead

Transportation sectorTransportation sector

• Oil consumption– U.S. per capita consumption tracks fuel economy

– U.S. per capita consumption nearly double EU-15 per capita consumption

• U.S. on-road fuel economy largely unchanged since 1981

• Alternative fuels capability– U.S. AFV fleet approaching 600,000 units

– U.S. ethanol production capacity ~ 3.9 billion gallons

• Oil consumption– U.S. per capita consumption tracks fuel economy

– U.S. per capita consumption nearly double EU-15 per capita consumption

• U.S. on-road fuel economy largely unchanged since 1981

• Alternative fuels capability– U.S. AFV fleet approaching 600,000 units

– U.S. ethanol production capacity ~ 3.9 billion gallons

U.S. Energy Consumption by SectorU.S. Energy Consumption by Sector

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, Energy Consumption by Sector

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005P

Tri

llio

n B

TU Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Electric Power

Transport as Share of Oil Consumption(2003)

Transport as Share of Oil Consumption(2003)

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ieosector.html

India, 29%

China, 36%

Japan, 38%

Middle East, 39%

South Korea, 40%

Russia, 40%

Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 41%

Other Central and South America, 47%

Mexico, 49%

Other Non-OECD Asia, 50%

Canada, 51%

Africa, 53%

Brazil, 53%

OECD Europe, 56%

U.S., 67%

Australia/New Zealand, 75%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

U.S. - EU-15 Actual On-Road New Vehicle Fuel Economy and Per Capita

Oil Consumption

U.S. - EU-15 Actual On-Road New Vehicle Fuel Economy and Per Capita

Oil Consumption

Source: EIA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Bar

rels

/ P

ers

on

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Fu

el E

con

om

y (M

PG

) U.S. Oil Consumption perCapita (Barrels per Year)

EU-15 Oil Consumptionper Capita (Barrels per

Year)

U.S. On Road FuelEconomy (MPG)

Comparison of Projected Fuel Economy Standards

Comparison of Projected Fuel Economy Standards

Adapted from An and Sauer, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2004.

U.S.

CanadaAustralia

EUJapan

China

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

MP

G -

Co

nve

rted

to

CA

FÉ

Tes

t C

ycle

U.S. Annual Gasoline Consumption per Passenger Vehicle

U.S. Annual Gasoline Consumption per Passenger Vehicle

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/index.html, as of July 28, 2000, table VM-201A. 1995-2004: BTS National Transportation Statistics, Fuel Consumption by Mode of Transportation in Physical Units, http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_05.html and

http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/excel/table_01_11.xls.

Note: Data includes gasoline consumed by Motorcycles, Passenger Vehicles, and Other 2-Axle 4-Tire Vehicles.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Gal

lons

of G

asol

ine

Con

sum

ed p

er

Veh

icle

U.S. AFV Fleet CompositionU.S. AFV Fleet Composition

Source: Estimated Number of Alternative-Fueled Vehicles – EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/datatables/aft1-13_03.html.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Nu

mb

er o

f V

ehic

les LNG

M85

Electricity

E85

CNG

LPG

U.S. Vehicle Fleet and Fuel Flexible Vehicle Fleet

U.S. Vehicle Fleet and Fuel Flexible Vehicle Fleet

Source: Estimated Number of Alternative-Fueled Vehicles – EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/datatables/aft1-13_03.html; Total U.S. Fleet – USDOT BTS,

http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html.

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P

Mil

lio

ns

of

Veh

icle

s

AFV Vehicles

Non-AFV Vehicles

Ethanol Production CapacityEthanol Production Capacity

Source: Renewable Fuels Association, http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#A

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Bil

lio

n G

all

on

s

World Ethanol ProductionWorld Ethanol Production

Source: Renewable Fuels Association, Ethanol Industry Outlook 2005-2007.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2004 2005 2006

Bil

lio

n G

all

on

s

South America

Africa

North and Central America

Other

Asia and Oceania

China

Europe

Brazil

United States

U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption Ethanol Production Capacity

U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption Ethanol Production Capacity

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0513c.html

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005P

Bil

lio

n G

all

on

s

Motor Gasoline Consumption Ethanol Production

Petroleum Sector EmissionsPetroleum Sector Emissions

• Petroleum sector SOx emissions: 2.2 Million Short Tons

• Petroleum sector NOx emissions: 9.7 Million Short Tons

• Petroleum sector CO2 emissions: 2.6 Billion Metric Tons

• Transportation sector CO2 emissions: 1.9 Billion Metric Tons

• Petroleum sector SOx emissions: 2.2 Million Short Tons

• Petroleum sector NOx emissions: 9.7 Million Short Tons

• Petroleum sector CO2 emissions: 2.6 Billion Metric Tons

• Transportation sector CO2 emissions: 1.9 Billion Metric Tons

Source: EIA Environmental Indicators, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1203.html and EPA National Emissions Inventory, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/trends/

U.S. CO2 Emissions from OilU.S. CO2 Emissions from Oil

Sources: EIA, International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html; EIA, Environment http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/historical_co2.xls

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Bil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s C

O2

/ Y

ear

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sh

are

of

To

tal

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

CO2 Emissions from Oil

CO2 Emissions from Transportation Sector Oil Use

Percent of Total U.S. Energy CO2 Emissions

PSI DevelopmentPSI Development

• DOE/EIA

• CATO

• Brookings Institution

• National Defense University

• Harvard/JFK School

• Stanford University

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Columbia University

• Duke University

• Johns Hopkins University/SAIS

• Council on Foreign Relations

• DOE/EIA

• CATO

• Brookings Institution

• National Defense University

• Harvard/JFK School

• Stanford University

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Columbia University

• Duke University

• Johns Hopkins University/SAIS

• Council on Foreign Relations

• World Resources Institute

• University of Texas-Austin/CEE

• Resources for the Future

• International Monetary Fund

• CSIS

• Institute for International Economics

• Colorado School of Mines

• Rand Corporation

• University of California/Berkeley

• World Resources Institute

• University of Texas-Austin/CEE

• Resources for the Future

• International Monetary Fund

• CSIS

• Institute for International Economics

• Colorado School of Mines

• Rand Corporation

• University of California/Berkeley

Contact InformationContact Information

Vito StaglianoDavid Rosner

National Commission on Energy Policy1250 “I” St., NW Suite 350

Washington, DC 20005Phone: 202-637-0400

vstagliano@energycommission.orgdrosner@energycommission.org

www.energycommission.org

Vito StaglianoDavid Rosner

National Commission on Energy Policy1250 “I” St., NW Suite 350

Washington, DC 20005Phone: 202-637-0400

vstagliano@energycommission.orgdrosner@energycommission.org

www.energycommission.org