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Collaboration on Understanding Climate Vulnerabilities in a Coastal Community:
Port Credit, Region of Peel
2013 A.D. Latornell Conservation SymposiumThursday November 21, 2013
Chandra Sharma, Toronto and Region Conservation
http://climateontario.org
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
1. Port Credit Climate Risk and Resilience: Context and Background
2. Objectives
3. Process and Preliminary Findings
4. Anticipated Outcomes
SITE CONTEXT
PROJECT DRIVERS
Peel Climate Change Strategy Goal 1.1… “conduct risk and vulnerability assessments…”
• Advance implementation of Peel CC Strategy; Generate consistent data; Conduct vulnerability risk assessments
• Support adaptation in Great Lakes watersheds• Adaptive Management
• Interest in risk management; awareness of need to increase resilience to extreme events and changing climate; advance adaptive management
STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
• Decision‐ready climate information• Consistent climate risk and vulnerability assessment methodology
• Guidance / experience working with uncertainty
• Kickstart adaptive management
PROJECT APPROACH
PROJECT OVERVIEW
1. Issue, Hazard, Need Identification
2. Climate Risk Analysis
3. Adaptation Prioritization
Current Focus
What? Climate risk analysis to inform adaptive
management decision making.
METHOD: CLIMATE RISK
1. Issue, Hazard, Need Identification
2. Climate Risk Analysis
3. Adaptation Prioritization
Stakeholder engagement to
understand range of climate impacts and understand current needs for responses‐Workshop & advisors
WORKSHOP 1 APPROACHWorkshop 1: Climate and Flooding Impacts and Responses
Questions:‐ What are climate‐related
impacts of concern?‐ What are the key system
response thresholds?‐ How are climate impacts
currently managed?
WORKSHOP 1 RESULTSClimate Event/Condition
System Changing Wind Patterns
Drought Extreme Heat
Storms (Extreme Wind and Precipitation)
Seasonal Shifts
Snow and Ice Storms
Weathering
Hydrology / Water Resources
Lake fetch Decrease lake ice cover
Backwater effects Loss of snowpack
Water quality impacts
Debris causing flooding;
Lower water levels
Lake water temperaturesWater quality due to erosion (turbidity)More suspended sediment
Drainage and Stormwater Conveyance
Material longevity
Debris causing flooding
Deterioration leading to safety issue
Infrastructure damage
Water and Wastewater
Material longevity
Difficulty treating raw water
Loss of service Deterioration leading to safety issue
Infrastructure damage
Treatment plant power loss
Impacts Identified by Stakeholders‐ Others may exist
METHOD: CLIMATE RISK
1. Issue, Hazard, Need Identification
2. Climate Risk Analysis
3. Adaptation Prioritization
Detailed risk analysis to understand the systems
and the relative importance of impacts
DETAILED RISK ANALYSISClimate Event/Condition
System Changing Wind Patterns
Drought Extreme Heat
Extreme Wind / Precip. (Storms)
Seasonal Shifts
Snow and Ice Storms
Weathering
Hydrology / Water Resources
Lake fetch Decrease lake ice cover
Backwater effects Loss of snowpack
Water quality impacts
Debris causing flooding;
Lower water levels
Lake water temperaturesWater quality due to erosion (tubidity)More suspended sediment
Drainage and Stormwater Conveyance
Material longevity
Debris causing flooding
Deterioration leading to safety issue
Infrastructure damage
Water and Wastewater
Material longevity
Difficulty treating raw water
Loss of service Deterioration leading to safety issue
Infrastructure damage
Treatment plant power loss
Probability of climate event
Probability of impact, given climate event
Outcome of Impact Risk!
Climate model estimate
System attributesand response
research
Stakeholder input:Social, Economic,
Environmental factors (specified by Peel)
Comparable &
transparentscoresRisk scoring
process
RISK ANALYSIS- CLIMATE DATA
Two IPCC AR5 Scenarios Full Range of IPCC Models and Runs for each Scenario (GCMs)
10‐year periods for calculating
statistics
21 different customized variables
DETAILED RISK ANALYSIS
Climate Event / Condition Impact Port Credit System
Storms (Extreme wind and precipitation)
Flooding and Flood Damage
Properties
Stormwater Infrastructure
Extreme Wind Blackouts and Brownouts Electrical distribution
Lake Ontario Water Levels and Extreme Wind
Coastal Dynamics (erosion and deposition)
Shoreline
Extreme Heat Heat waves and air quality People
DETAILS RISK ANALYSES FOR PORT CREDIT
NEXT STEPS: WORKSHOP 2‐ Present preliminary detailed risk analysis
‐ Validate results / get feedback for improvement
‐ Explore possible responses that increase local resilience
‐ Opportunity for shared learning and understanding of risks
METHOD: CLIMATE RISK
1. Issue, Hazard, Need Identification
2. Climate Risk Analysis
3. Adaptation Prioritization
Use risk information to
understand which impacts to respond to… Concept of Resilience for
detailed planning
ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES• Risk assessment methodology will
be applied to range of sectors / systems– Transportation– Water Resources– Additional communities on Great Lakes
• More custom analysis of climate variables and refinement of risk analyses
• Identification of optimal adaptation options and initiation of adaptive management using concept of resilience
