Colac Housing Needs Assessment Shire of Colac Otway

30 May 2016

Prepared by Southern Cross Town Planning Pty Ltd

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1. INTRODUCTION Southern Cross Town Planning has been engaged by the Shire of Colac Otway to prepare the Colac Housing Needs Assessment 2016 for the township of Colac (including Elliminyt). This assessment is one of several background reports that will support the preparation of Councils long-term strategy, Colac 2050.

Council is committed to having appropriate plans in place to ensure that Colac continues to grow and thrive and can take advantage of the opportunities presented by forthcoming changes. It is therefore undertaking the Colac 2050 project which will commission a number of technical assessments and lead to the Colac 2050 Growth Plan. The objectives of Colac 2050 are to produce a sustainable strategic framework for Colac that is visionary and aspirational, achieves the ‘Garden City’ theme identified for the city and provide drivers for growth in the population and local economy that will improve the overall wellbeing, productivity, functionality and liveability of the town. An input into the Colac 2050 technical reporting phase is an assessment to determine the future housing needs in the township of Colac.

The Colac Housing Needs Assessment 2016 should be examined in conjunction with the Colac Housing Land Supply Assessment 2016, prepared by Rod Bright and Associates. This report examines potential lot and associated dwelling yield for Colac (including Elliminyt) under current conditions in the context of current residential land use zones and identification of known constraints.

2. BACKGROUND Colac township is the Shire’s primary urban centre, within a two-hour drive of Melbourne, and approximately an hour to the large regional cities of Geelong to the east and Warrnambool to the west. It is situated on the southern shore of Lake Colac and strategically located on the Princes Highway between Geelong and Warrnambool, and on the Geelong to Warrnambool rail line. The town has a population of approximately 11,000 in 2011 (Statistical Local Area, ABS Census), and is a regional centre for surrounding local government areas, providing the main industrial, commercial and service activities to the Shire and surrounding region.

Growth and development in Colac has in recent years been guided by the Colac Structure Plan, which was adopted in February 2007. The Colac Structure Plan anticipated continued low growth (with an expected population of approximately 15,000 by 2021), forecast a residential land supply of 50-80 years and did not identify any medium to long term growth beyond existing town boundaries. The Independent Panel which examined the Structure Plan in 2008 recommended that the plan be reviewed to check some of the plan’s underlying assumptions.

A number of key drivers however have necessitated a reassessment of these growth assumptions. These include:

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• The G21 Regional Growth Plan 2013 has identified Colac for targeted growth, with an aspirational population target in 2050 of 20,000 (two thirds increase to the current population).

• A need to create local employment and business investment to stimulate economic and population growth. • Significant transport infrastructure improvements are occurring such as the Princes Highway duplication between Geelong and Colac

and the Geelong Ring Road. • Colac is a service centre to the sub-region. • Colac occupies a strategic location on the Princes Highway, as a gateway to the Great South Coast and to the Great Otway National

Park and nationally significant Great Ocean Road.

This paper will guide the Colac 2050 project, a long-range planning project that has been established to respond to Colac’s population increasing to 20,000 residents by 2050, as identified in the G21 Regional Growth Plan (2013). Colac 2050 will establish a plan for the expansion of Colac’s residential housing footprint and its business and industry sectors. It will also examine residential, retail and industrial land availability, drainage, flood planning, social and recreational infrastructure, traffic and pedestrian needs. The project is funded by the State Government and the Colac Otway Shire.

A strategic growth plan and a township structure plan are envisaged as key outcomes of the Colac 2050 project, and the plans will be guided by input from this Strategy. The G21 Regional Growth Plan (‘the Growth Plan’) is a key strategic document upon which this Strategy will be based. The Growth Plan was developed by the G21 Geelong Region Alliance which is the “… formal alliance of government, business and community organisations working together to improve the lives of people within the Geelong region across five municipalities – Colac Otway, Golden Plains, Greater Geelong, Queenscliffe and Surf Coast.” (G21 Geelong Region Alliance website). The Growth Plan provides a planned response to the situation wherein the five municipalities in the region accommodate a population of 500,000 persons over the next 30-40 years, and it builds upon the strategic planning work already undertaken by individual Councils. Colac is identified as performing a ‘District Town’ role which provides “food production activity and services to settlements within the rural hinterland, including the Otway’s and Great Ocean Road, and is a gateway to the Great South Coast”. Supporting the planned growth in district towns is one of the key elements of the Growth Plan.

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4. STUDY AREA The Study Area for the project is located within the residential areas of the township of Colac/Elliminyt. This area is shown in Figure 1. For the purposes of the study and statistical analysis, the study area has been further defined as the statistical districts of Colac, Colac East, Colac West and Elliminyt (Figure 2) and will be referred to as ‘Colac’ in this report.

It is noted that the ABS produce a number of population statistics at the micro level in Colac/Elliminyt. These statistics differ, depending upon the boundaries used for calculations. For the purpose of this report, id consulting datasets have been used, which are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006 and 2011 datasets.

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Figure 1 Study Area – Residential areas of the Colac Township Figure 2 – Local districts

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5. PROJECT SCOPE The Scope of the Colac Housing Needs Assessment 2016 is to:

• Using existing ABS datasets and recent building approvals, assess existing housing supply in the study area • Quantify the various types and forms of accommodation in Colac, including, rental, hotels/motels, caravan parks, social housing, aged

care etc • Quantify the supply of vacant residential zoned land in Colac (to be provided by Council) • Examine trends in demographics, occupancy rates, price points and housing types over time • Using .id consulting forecasting and the G21 projection of 20,000 people for 2050, predict future housing needs for Colac. Key issues

that must be addressed include;

o provision of an overall estimate of the number of dwellings required;

o provision of estimates of the characteristics of the housing stock required, including dwelling type (e.g. houses, apartments), size, affordability and location;

o the impact of changing household composition and household size on housing needs;

o current rental supply

o the impact of changing age structures on housing needs; and

o the specialised housing needs of key population subgroups such as tertiary students, older persons, professionals and temporary workers.

• Compare the future housing needs predictions with the current housing stock and identify the housing supply that needs to be provided over the period to 2050. This is to include numerical estimates of both the required overall increase in housing supply and the characteristics of the additional housing supply in terms of dwelling type (e.g. houses, apartments), size, affordability and location

• Provide low/medium/high population growth scenarios to support future housing needs

This study examines ‘housing needs’ in Colac. The housing needs of Colac are based on statistical analysis of past trends and current numbers to produce forecasts. However, in reality future housing demand and supply can differ markedly from forecasts and such forecasting provides a number of challenges. For example, in assessing the size of future dwellings required, assuming a causal link between household size and

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dwelling size may not suffice. An illustration of this is that a single person or couple without children may choose to remain in a three or four-bedroom dwelling for various reasons, including emotion, taxation, house price, land supply or convenience. They may also purchase a dwelling that exceeds their apparent domestic needs for similar reasons. Such matters are difficult to quantify in this study. Therefore, the Colac Housing Needs Assessment will confine itself to forecasting on the statistical needs of Colac, making assumptions that, for example, a one or two-person household needs are a one or two-bedroom dwelling.

For the purposes of the project, this report will be divided into two sections.

The first section will detail and examine the current housing supply data, including demographic factors that shape housing issues. The second section will examine future demand issues in Colac.

It must be noted that G21 data sets were not used in the production of this report as they generally did not break down datasets within the geographic areas of the Shire.

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6. HOUSING SUPPLY SECTION This section provides a snapshot of historical and current housing supply and key demographic data for the study area in Colac.

6.1 Age Structure The Age Structure table gives a snapshot of population movements since 1991. Total population numbers indicate significant changes from 1991 to 2011. Population numbers dropped substantially after 1991 to slowly rise over 1996 – 2006 and then accelerate into 2011.

Changes to the overall age mix of Colac in percentage terms are not considered to be extreme across the 1991 – 2011 period. Table 1 indicates slight falls in percentage terms for babies through to primary school children, stable secondary and tertiary student levels, a fall of 3% for the young workforce, a rise in the older workforce and a small increase in seniors and the elderly. For more recent figures, Victoria in Future estimate the 2016 (as at 30 Jun 2016) population at 12,152 in the Colac study area. This would continue the growth seen in the 2006 -2011 period identified below.

Table 1 – Age Structure - Service Age Groups Colac 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)

804 7 736 7 723 6 769 7 905 8

Primary schoolers (5 to 11)

1,011 9 1,079 10 1,167 11 1,175 11 1,236 11

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)

978 9 1,010 9 1,040 9 1,016 10 1,046 9

Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)

1,030 9 948 9 853 8 863 8 1,038 9

Young workforce (25 to 34)

1,309 11 1,235 11 1,327 12 1,401 13 1,507 14

Parents and homebuilders 2,092 18 2,190 20 2,147 20 2,066 19 1,987 18

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(35 to 49) Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)

1,440 13 1,292 12 1,197 11 1,062 10 1,010 9

Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)

1,147 10 986 9 942 9 928 9 1,085 10

Seniors (70 to 84) 1,303 11 1,279 12 1,291 12 1,178 11 1,104 10

Elderly aged (85 and over) 364 3 323 3 275 3 165 2 167 2

Total 11,479 100 11,078 100 10,960 100 10,622 100 11,084 100 Source : id consulting data 2016

6.2 Total Dwelling Supply In 2011 there were 5,262 private dwellings in the Colac statistical area. This is an increase of 809 dwellings from 1991, and averaging 40 new dwellings per annum across the period. However, over the most recent period where statistical data is available (2006-2011), 320 new dwellings were constructed. This averages at 64 new dwellings per annum, a marked increase over the 20-year trend.

Of these dwellings, a slight variation of composition is noted. In 1991 – 2011 the number of separate house dwellings has remained relatively steady, at 87-88% of the total. The number of medium density dwellings has proportionally increased over the period from 10% to 12%. During the 1991 – 1996 period 30 medium density dwellings were constructed, or an average of 6 per annum. However, during the 2006 – 2011 period, 82 dwellings were constructed, an average of over 16 per annum.

It is noted that there are discrepancies within data on the number of dwellings within Colac in this report. This is due to the fact that some dwellings were not habitable at the time of the census, and thus did not complete a survey (but were noted as being a ‘dwelling’ for statistical purposes), whilst in other dwellings questions seeking further information (eg household size, tenure, number of bedrooms etc) were not completed by the occupants.

Table 2 : Dwelling supply and structure Colac 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 9

Dwelling type Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %

Separate house 4,588 87 4,355 88 4,168 88 4,036 87 3,938 88

Medium density 617 12 535 11 514 11 472 10 442 10

High density 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Caravans, cabin, houseboat

42 1 27 1 37 1 25 1 33 1

Other 14 0 25 1 16 0 35 1 30 1 Not stated 0 0 0 0 25 1 61 1 9 0 Total Private Dwellings

5,262 100 4,942 100 4,760 100 4,630 100 4,453 100

Source : id consulting data 2016

Council building statistics have been examined to ascertain total residential builds since the 2011 ABS Census (9 August 2011). It is noted that this time period corresponds to a period of approximately 4.5 years as Council records are from August 2011 to February 2016. Nevertheless the data provides an insight into recent completed building activities in Colac. An additional 41 dwellings from this period have no recorded completion date. This would most likely indicated that building works were not undertaken after an initial building permit was received, or, given the most of these incompleted building permits were issued in recent times, building works have not been completed at the survey date of February 2016.

From 2011 to 2016 the records indicated that a total of 272 dwellings have been completed in the study area. This averages at 60 per annum, similar to the number of dwellings per annum between 2006 -2011. The interesting result was that 14.5% of new dwellings were classified as medium density dwellings, above the recent 12% during the 2006 – 2011 period. Data is not available on the number of bedrooms in the medium density dwellings.

Table 3 : Dwelling Construction August 2011 – February 2016

Colac 2011 – 2016

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Dwelling type Dwellings 233 Medium density 39 Total Private Dwellings 272

Source : Colac Otway Shire Building Department records

The Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21) – Colac Otway (2013) also examined building approvals in the Statistical Local Area (SLA) of Colac. Between July 2006 to July 2012 (a six-year period), 82 residential dwellings per annum have been approved. There is no clear reason for the discrepancy between the G21 data and the id consulting data (82 dwellings compared to 64 dwellings). It is noted that the G21 data is based upon building approvals, whilst the id consulting data is based on the Census. As earlier discussed, whether all building approvals resulted in the completion and occupation of a dwelling is unknown. It is also noted that whilst the Colac SLA does not exactly match the Colac – Elliminyt statistical districts, the geographic variation is considered to be negligible.

6.3 Household Size Household size has changed over the survey period and generally reflects changes Australia wide. The number of one and two person households increased from 56% of the study area in 1991 to 66% in 2011. One or two bedroom dwellings generally indicate single persons living alone or as couples. The number of dwellings with three or more residents has dropped from 44% in 1991 to 34% in 2011. Table 4 also indicates that trends towards smaller households has markedly slowed in recent years. Table 4 - Household size Colac 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 Number of persons usually resident

Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %

1 person 1,445 31 1,313 30 1,283 30 1,183 28 970 24 2 persons 1,595 35 1,535 35 1,436 34 1,371 33 1,297 32 3 persons 587 13 577 13 555 13 575 14 581 15 4 persons 561 12 549 12 553 13 551 13 600 15 5 persons 300 7 323 7 306 7 324 8 376 9 6 or more persons 105 2 112 3 150 4 152 4 181 5

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Total classifiable households

4,594 100 4,408 100 4,283 100 4,156 100 4,004 100

Source : id consulting data 2016

6.4 Number of Bedroom per Dwelling Trends in the number of bedroom per dwelling reveal no real increase in the percentage of one bedroom dwellings and a decrease (3%) in the number of 2 bedroom dwellings from 1991 to 2011. Three bedroom dwellings have also fallen as a percentage of the overall mix, from 60% to 55% between 1991 and 2011. Larger houses, with four or more bedrooms have risen from 12% of overall dwellings in 1991 to 19% in 2011.

Table 5 - Number of bedrooms per dwelling Colac 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 Number of bedrooms Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %

0 or 1 bedrooms 231 5 202 5 226 5 212 5 194 5

2 bedrooms 777 16 757 17 772 18 795 19 784 19 3 bedrooms 2,611 55 2,586 58 2,564 59 2,492 60 2,508 62 4 bedrooms 807 17 712 16 628 14 524 13 447 11 5 bedrooms or more 100 2 69 2 89 2 49 1 48 1

Not stated 187 4 144 3 76 2 98 2 67 2 Total households 4,713 100 4,471 100 4,354 100 4,171 100 4,048 100

Source : id consulting data 2016

6.5 Housing Tenure

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Changes to housing tenure types indicate a substantial move away from fully owned dwellings between 1991 and 2011. Simultaneously, the percentage of people renting and paying off a home has increased. The number of social housing rentals indicates a slight fall in both percentage and total numbers, suggesting that social housing dwellings in Colac are not keeping up with overall housing growth.

An interview with an officer of the Department of Health and Human Services revealed approximately 275 Department dwellings are located in Colac in 2016. These dwellings range in size from one bedroom to four bedrooms. Waiting lists are approximately one year for all types of dwellings. The discrepancy between the Social Housing figure cited in Table 6 could indicate that some social housing in Colac is provided by housing cooperatives or the like, or that some public housing has been sold off in recent years.

Table 6 – Housing Tenure Colac 2011 2006 2001 1996 1991 Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Fully owned 1,831 39 1,878 42 2,164 50 2,088 50 2,010 50 Mortgage 1,434 30 1,300 29 1,054 24 972 23 1,035 26 Renting 1,177 25 1,069 24 951 22 903 22 842 21 Renting - Social housing

308 7 297 7 294 7 270 6 311 8

Renting – Private 852 18 733 16 632 15 605 15 496 12

Renting - Not stated 17 0 39 1 25 1 29 1 36 1

Other tenure type 37 1 39 1 51 1 42 1 150 4

Not stated 231 5 192 4 125 3 153 4 0 0 Total households 4,710 100 4,479 100 4,345 100 4,158 100 4,044 100

Source : id consulting data 2016

6.6 Rental Prices

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Table 7 provides a snapshot of rents paid in 2011. This figure includes public and private rents, so as a true market indicator of rental rates, it may be partially distorted by the public rental figures which generally do not reflect the free market value of the product. Nevertheless, the table reveals that the bulk of renters (53%) are in the $150 - $224 weekly brackets. University students traditionally seek rental accommodation whilst living away from home. Any increased in tertiary student number (eg as commuting time to Geelong improves) may stimulate rental demand and shared housing arrangement. Table 7 - Rentals

Colac 2011 Weekly rental amount Number % $Nil - $74 59 6 $75 - $99 78 7 $100 - $124 90 8 $125 - $149 100 9 $150 - $174 191 16 $175 - $199 157 13 $200 - $224 176 15 $225 - $249 98 8 $250 - $274 91 8 $275 - $299 42 4 $300 - $324 15 1 $325 - $949 19 1 $950+ 6 1 Rent not stated 44 3 Total households renting 1,166 100

Source : id consulting data 2016

6.7 House and Unit Prices House prices in Colac reveal a steady, but fluctuating increase from 2007 to 2015. Housing costs in both Colac and Elliminyt were around $200,000 in 2007. Elliminyt rose to $300,000 across the study period whilst Colac increased to $250,000.

The unit market has fluctuated substantially across the same period, ranging from $180,000 to $250,000. There is no unit data available for Elliminyt, probably reflecting the low-density nature of development in the locality and the lack of unit developed in the precinct. In recent 14

years it is noted that the unit market has trended downwards. In interpreting these figures, it is unclear as to the number of individual sales the data has been derived from, particularly with regards to unit sales. Based on the data available, the average value of units has declined in Colac between 2007 and 2015. The spike at 2010 may be the result of lower numbers of higher value units sold. Care should therefore be taken in interpreting the data.

The lower price points in Colac may serve as an attractor for workers, students etc commuting to Geelong.

Figure 3 - House and Unit Prices in Colac from 2007 to 2015

Source : Realestate.com.au

Figure 4 - House Prices in Elliminyt from 2007 to 2015

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Source : Realestate.com.au

6.8 Tourist Accommodation Sites A phone survey was conducted on tourist accommodation venues in Colac, including hotels, motels and caravan parks. The Colac Visitor Information Centre was also contacted for information. Establishments surveyed were sourced from various search engines commonly available on the internet. Only hotel/motel, cottages and caravan parks data is included. Bed and Breakfast style tourist and visitor accommodation would generally be recorded in the ABS Census data as dwellings.

The data reveals that as at March 2016, there were 164 hotel rooms or cabins/cottages available as accommodation and 96 powered and unpowered sites for camping and caravans in Colac. It is noted that tourist accommodation provides around three percent of overall available accommodation stock in Colac. Tourist style accommodation often provides for accommodation for temporary (eg visiting professional services) and seasonal workers. Given the relatively low numbers of visitor accommodation units available, temporary accommodation may stimulate opportunities to further enhance the tourist mix. Shortfalls in tourist and short term worker accommodation could be made up in Bed and Breakfast type facilities (eg Airbnb) and larger dwelling making rooms available for periods of time or during seasonal fluctuations. Table 8 - Tourist visitor accommodation site in Colac

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Accommodation Accommodation Units Camping sites Baronda Motor Inn 28 0 Otway Gate 18 0 Colac Mid City 30 0 Colac Central Hotel 35 0 Union Club Hotel 12 0 Otway Estate 3 cottages 0 Colac Otway Caravan and Cabin Park

7 cabins 45 caravan/camping sites

Central Caravan Park No response No response Lake Colac Caravan Park 31 cabin 51 caravan/camping sites Total 164 96

Source : Phone survey 29 February 2016

6.9 Summary An examination of the trends of population and housing in Colac reveals the following key findings;

• Population growth has accelerated since 2006, however there have been falls in overall numbers within all age groups below 34 years old and an increase in older workers, seniors and the elderly in the years between 1991 - 2011

• Recent building permits indicate that on average, 60 dwellings were constructed per annum between 2011 and present • G21 data indicate 82 new dwellings were constructed per annum between 2006 and 2012. Using the more recent building approval

numbers from 2011- 2016 (average 60 per annum), this would indicate an overall decline in the rate of new dwellings constructed in Colac - Elliminyt

• In recent years the ratio of the number of new dwellings to population growth does not follow historical trends (ie from 2006 to 2011 there were 320 additional dwellings yet only 401 additional people in Colac)

• Medium density dwellings are growing as a proportion of overall dwelling types, especially in recent years, but still remain a relatively small component of new housing stock

• A substantial increase in the number of one and two person households and a corresponding fall in the number of 4 or more person households

• Percentage fall in the number of two bedroom dwellings and almost doubling in the number of four or more bedroom dwellings • A relatively low number of hotel/motel and camping/caravan sites in relation to overall housing numbers

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• A substantial decrease in the number of fully owned homes, a slight increase in mortgages and a substantial increase in rental properties • A steady increase in the price of houses in Colac whilst the unit price growth is unclear • Average weekly rent of $150 – $244

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7. HOUSING DEMAND SECTION This section provides a snapshot of recent and predicted population and current housing supply and key demographic data for the study area in Colac.

7.1 Population Forecast Population forecasts are available at a five-year interval until 2036 for the four precincts of the Colac - Elliminyt district and as a whole (id consultants). A population forecast is also available from the G21 Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21) – Colac Otway (2013).

Population forecasts are typically variable and notoriously difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the existing data indicates a gradual and generally regular population and household numbers increase across 2011 – 2036. The population of Elliminyt will provide the majority of this growth, with Colac West contributing the next highest level. Colac Central will provide only a slight population boost across the estimate period, according to id consultants analysis.

Average household size continues to trend downwards over the forecast period, dropping from 2.37 persons per dwelling in 2011 to a predicted 2.26 persons per dwelling in 2036. Elliminyt will provide the greatest impetus for this trend, with average household size predicted to decline from 2.75 to 2.51 persons per dwelling from 2016 to 2036, reflecting a maturing population where the young move out of home, the so called ‘empty nest’ syndrome. It is also interesting to note that Dwelling occupancy rates are at their highest in Elliminyt, forecast at 95.98% in 2036, when compared to Colac Central at 92.08%. This possible reflects owner occupier in Elliminyt when compared to Colac Central which may have a greater rental market, and thus transient population, with more frequent residential vacancies as properties are continually vacated.

Population statistics from the G21 Regional Growth Plan have been used to populate year 2050 data sets. The G21 Regional Plan aspires to a population of 20,000 for the study area at year 2050. Average household size and population in non-private dwellings from 2036 has been used in 2050 calculations which gives total households and total dwelling numbers. The 2050 data indicates a substantial surge in population from current levels. Whilst this increase would undoubtedly occur over the entire forecast period, the G21 data is only available for the 2050 year. Therefore, the data reveals a significant jump from the 2036 forecast year.

The Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21) – Colac Otway (2013) also states that there will be projected demand of 111 dwellings per annum from 2011 to 2031 in the Colac SLA. Of this, 55% will be required for greenfield/major infill development.

In analysing the G21 year 2050 population forecast, the average household size for the previous period (2036) was used to ascertain the total dwelling numbers. To meet the year 2050 aspirational target, it is estimated that there will need to be a total of 9280 dwellings in Colac, an increase of 3,985 dwellings from the 2011 ABS figure. 19

Table 9 - Population Forecast

Colac - East Summary 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2050* Population 2,738 2,808 2,931 3,020 3,104 3,184 3,300 Change in population (5yrs) 70 123 90 84 80 116 Average annual change 0.50% 0.86% 0.60% 0.55% 0.51% - Households 1,124 1,174 1,225 1,265 1,310 1,359 1,412 Average household size 2.22 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.19 2.17 2.17 Population in non-private dwellings 240 240 240 240 240 240 240 Dwellings 1,203 1,260 1,317 1,362 1,410 1,461 1,514 Dwelling occupancy rate 93.43 93.17 93.01 92.88 92.91 93.02 93.02

Colac Summary 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2050* Population 11,885 12,285 12,807 13,313 14,198 14,465 20,000 Change in population (from previous period) 400 522 508 552 600 5,535 Households 4922 5138 5387 5636 5917 6220 8,850 Average household size 2.37 2.34 2.32 2.30 2.28 2.26 2.26 Population in non-private dwellings 400 400 400 430 430 430 430 Dwellings 5295 5528 5797 6060 6357 6678 9,280 Colac - Central Summary 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2050* Population 3,693 3,706 3,750 3,841 3,883 3,932 4,100 Change in population 13 44 91 42 49 168 Average annual change 0.07% 0.24% 0.48% 0.22% 0.25% - Households 1,657 1,666 1,693 1,726 1,755 1,791 1871 Average household size 2.13 2.13 2.12 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.09 Population in non-private dwellings 160 160 160 190 190 190 190 Dwellings 1,811 1,819 1,846 1,880 1,910 1,945 2025 Dwelling occupancy rate 91.50 91.59 91.71 91.81 91.88 92.08 92.08

Colac - West

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Source : id consulting data 2016 * G21 population target

It is noted that Victoria in Future (ViF) has provided an alternate forecast for population growth in the study area up until 2031. The forecast reveals reduced growth levels across the period, leaving the study area almost 600 persons less than the alternate id consulting forecast in 2031. Table 10 - Victoria in Future Estimated Residential Population

Year 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 11,981 12,152 12,519 13,023 13,615

Source – Victoria in Future Website

7.2 Forecast Age Structure Forecast Age Structure changes provide a snapshot of age population in Colac. It reveals steady growth across all age groups except the tertiary

Summary 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2050* Population 2,874 3,029 3,191 3,325 3,488 3,692 3,900 Change in population (5yrs) 155 162 134 163 204 208 Average annual change 1.06% 1.05% 0.83% 0.96% 1.14% - Households 1,204 1,266 1,345 1,425 1,513 1,612 1,703 Average household size 2.39 2.39 2.37 2.33 2.31 2.29 2.29 Population in non-private dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dwellings 1,305 1,374 1,462 1,548 1,643 1,753 1,844 Dwelling occupancy rate 92.26 92.14 92.00 92.05 92.09 91.96 91.96 Elliminyt Summary 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2050* Population 2,580 2,742 2,935 3,127 3,390 3,657 8,700 Change in population (5yrs) 162 193 193 263 267 5,043 Average annual change 1.22% 1.37% 1.28% 1.63% 1.53% - Households 937 1,032 1,124 1,220 1,339 1,458 3,466 Average household size 2.75 2.66 2.61 2.56 2.53 2.51 2.51 Population in non-private dwellings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dwellings 976 1,075 1,172 1,270 1,394 1,519 3,611 Dwelling occupancy rate 96.00 96 95.90 96.06 96.05 95.98 95.98

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education and independence (young adults) group, which is predicted to decline over the forecast period. There is also an increase in the Seniors and Elderly Aged sectors, expanding from 15% to 18% of the total population. The implication of these changes on housing needs are that seniors and the elderly may require smaller houses and that less tertiary students may reflect young adults moving out of home and away from Colac, thus potentially decreasing household size in the ‘empty nesters’ and ‘older working and pre-retirees’ age groups. This will further increase the potential need for a different style of dwellings to support smaller households. The impact of the expanding older population may result in increased demand for a different style of dwelling in Colac. This could have significant implications on the demand for other forms of housing, including granny flats, retirement home and nursing homes. Table 11 - Forecast age structure - Service age groups Colac - Total persons 2011 2026 2036 Change between 2011 and 2036

Age group (years) Number % Number % Number % Number Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) 770 6 856 6 902 6 132 Primary schoolers (5 to 11) 1024 9 1228 9 1312 9 288 Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) 948 8 1000 8 1084 7 136 Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) 1131 10 1024 8 1111 8 -20 Young workforce (25 to 34) 1359 11 1528 11 1599 11 240 Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) 2155 18 2366 18 2597 18 442 Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) 1459 12 1598 12 1732 12 273 Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) 1224 11 1477 12 1598 11 374 Seniors (70 to 84) 1406 12 1744 13 1982 14 576 Elderly aged (85 and over) 406 3 496 3 548 4 142 Total persons 11,885 100 13,313 100 14,465 100 2580

Source : id consulting data 2016

7.3 Forecast Household Types From current data (2011 ABS census year) until the forecast 2036 year, there are no forecasted significant changes in percentage terms in Household types according to data supplied by id consulting. Traditional ‘Couple families with dependants’ slightly decreases as a percentage,

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but increases overall by 245 units. ‘Couples without dependants’ slightly increases as a percentage, and increases by 412 units overall. The biggest change is ‘Lone person households’, which increase by 2 percent, or 548 units across the period. In considering the sub-precincts, Elliminyt provides some significant movement over the forecast period. In percentage terms ‘Couple family with dependants’ falls significantly whilst ‘Couples without children’ and ‘Lone person households’ rises accordingly. Colac East, West and Central all reveal relatively small changes in percentage terms of household types. Colac Central is interesting in that 39 percent of current dwellings are ‘Lone person households’, rising to 40 percent in 2036, with a total of 69 new dwellings required. Changing household types also reflects trends in household composition. With the growth of smaller households in terms of numbers of persons (single and two person households), it is anticipated that there will be an increased need for smaller styles of accommodation. In Elliminyt, the primary growth area for Colac, this growth is most marked. By 2036, it is forecast that 59% of all households will be couples without children and single person households in Elliminyt. Given that Elliminyt is where the bulk of future growth is proposed, it is considered that future housing supply must address the changing market and supply more appropriate style dwellings to smaller households. Table 12 – Forecast Household Types

Elliminyt 2011 2026 2036 Change between 2011 and 2036

Type Number % Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 379 40 427 35 491 34 112 Couples without dependents

289 31 423 35 506 35 217

Group households 13 1 15 1 16 1 3 Lone person households 173 18 264 22 345 24 172 One parent family 68 7 74 6 82 6 14 Other families 15 2 17 1 18 1 3

Total 937 100 1220 100 1458 100 937

Colac – West 2011 2026 2036 Change between 2011 and 2036

Type Number % Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 276 23 312 22 350 22 74 Couples without dependents 315 26 366 26 403 25 88

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Group households 45 4 51 4 55 3 10 Lone person households 393 33 498 35 584 36 191 One parent family 161 13 182 13 203 13 42 Other families 14 1 16 1 17 1 3

Total 1204 100 1425 100 1612 100 1204

Colac – East 2011 2026 2036 Change between 2011 and 2036

Type Number % Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 267 24 294 23 304 22 37 Couples without dependents 324 29 365 29 393 29 69 Group households 47 4 45 4 48 4 1 Lone person households 377 34 447 35 493 36 116 One parent family 97 9 103 8 109 8 12 Other families 12 1 11 1 12 1 0

Total 1124 100 1265 100 1359 100 1124

Colac - Central 2011 2026 2036 Change between 2011 and 2036

Type Number % Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 326 20 342 20 348 19 22 Couples without dependents 399 24 419 24 437 24 38 Group households 61 4 58 3 60 3 -1 Lone person households 650 39 682 40 719 40 69 One parent family 204 12 206 12 206 12 2 Other families 17 1 19 1 21 1 4 Total 1657 100 1726 100 1791 100 134

Source : id consulting data 2016

7.4 Growth Scenarios – Population and Total Dwellings Table 13 provides three different growth scenarios for Colac. All growth scenarios commence from 2011 ABS datasets.

The Low Growth scenario is extracted from ABS data for population growth from 1991 to 2011 and extrapolated across the forecast period. Across the 1991 – 2011 period the population grew by an average of 20 persons per year (11,084 to 11,479). Total dwellings grew by an average

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of 40 per year (4453 to 5262). If these rates are used to forecast total change to 2050, total population increase will be 780 persons, with 1,560 additional dwellings. Using this scenario, by 2050 there would be 1.85 persons per dwelling, an unlikely outcome. It would be expected that at some point the growth in the number of new dwellings would level off and reflect population growth.

Id consulting have provided forecasts of population and dwelling numbers to 2036. This is the Base Growth scenario. To achieve a 2050 timeframe, the predicted growth rates between 2026 to 2036 were extended to the year 2050, as were the predicted dwelling occupancy rate of 2.31 person per dwelling between 2026 and 2036. Using this scenario, in 2050 there will be 3,730 more persons living in Colac, with 1,881 additional dwellings required.

G21 provides a 20,000 population at year 2050 as an aspiration. This is considered to be a High Growth scenario. Growth rates up to 2050 have been estimated by averaging out total growth evenly across the 2011 - 2050 period. A total population growth of 8,115 persons from 2011 is forecast. G21 data does not provide dwellings required to 2050, so the average forecast dwelling occupancy across 2011 – 2036 (provided by id consulting) of 2.31 person per dwelling was used to provide a snapshot of future dwelling occupancy rates. Assuming this rates, a total of 3,363 additional dwellings are required up until 2050 (when measured from 2011). The tables are provided in graph form for easy comparison (Fig 5 & 6).

Table 13 – Growth Scenarios

2011 2026 2036 2050 Total change from 2011 - 2050

ABS traditional growth rate Low Growth Population Dwellings

11,885 5,295

12,185 5,895

12,385 6,295

12,665 6,855

780 1,560

Id consulting Population Forecast Base Scenario Population Dwellings

11,885 5,295

13,313 6,060

14,465 6,678

15,615 7,176

3,730 1,881

G21 Aspirational Population Scenario

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High Growth Population Dwellings Dwellings (aver 2.31 person per dwelling)

11,885 5,295

15,005 6,496

17,085 7,396

20,000 8,658

8,115 3,363

Source : id consulting data 2016, ABS Population Statistics and G21 Statistics sourced from Colac Otway Shire Colac Community Infrastructure Plan Final Report ASR Research March 2016

Table 14 – Alternate Scenario - Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21) – Colac Otway

Year 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Additional dwellings 5295 5850 6405 6960 7515

Source – Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21) – Colac Otway

Figure 5 – Growth Scenarios – Colac Population Growth – 2011 - 2050

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Figure 6 – Growth Scenarios – Colac Dwelling Numbers Growth 2011 - 2050

Comparing the future housing needs predictions with the current housing stock (as measured in 2011) reveals continuous and ongoing demand for housing in the township of Colac. Comparing the low growth to the high growth scenarios reveals that between 20 and 86 new dwellings are

0

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15000

20000

25000

2011 2026 2036 2050

Low Growth Base Aspirational

0

2000

4000

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10000

2011 2026 2036 2050Low Growth Base Aspirational

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required per annum up until 2050. Whist the location of these dwellings is partly dependent upon planning policies and the rezoning of appropriate land to meet demand, Elliminyt has generally provided the bulk of housing growth in recent years and is well placed to continue to support growth. In Elliminyt, average household size will remain relatively high across the forecast period. This will support the growth of traditional style dwellings catering for traditional family structures, with a mixture of medium density dwellings to support ‘empty nesters’ where required. In other areas of Colac, average household size is smaller and forecast to decline further. Within the Central, West and East area of Colac, existing lot patterns may allow further subdivision and there is good access to existing goods and services which can support housing at higher densities. Medium density style dwellings should be focused in these areas.

7.5 Summary An examination of the forecasts for population and housing growth in Colac reveals the following key issues;

• The number of ‘Lone person households’ is increasing • All age groups are expanding except the ‘Tertiary education and independence‘ grouping. Seniors and the Elderly groups are growing at

the fastest rates and will require the consideration of smaller style and alternate accommodation types tailored to meet their needs. • Elliminyt facing considerable changes due to the current family based population aging, but this reflects general demographic changes.

Instead of empty nesters remaining in place, they may downsize from larger dwellings in Elliminyt to elsewhere in Colac, the Shire or beyond.

• Despite fluctuating percentages, more housing in all categories is required across all precincts in Colac. Nevertheless, with the aging population and the continued growth in smaller household numbers, a greater number of one and two bedroom units will be required as part of the overall housing mix.

• From 2011, id consulting forecast 55 new dwelling per year till 2036. To meet the G21 population target, 86 new dwellings per year to 2050 are required. Alternatively, the G21 land supply monitor states that there will be a demand of 111 new dwelling per annum from 2011 to 2031.

• If 14.5% of all new dwellings in the 2011-16 period are medium density dwellings, and using the G21 High Growth period data, 488 medium density dwellings (13 per year) will be required during the years 2011-2050 to meet the needs of the forecast future population.

• Comparing the three different growth scenarios provides significant variations in total population and dwelling needs.

8.0 COLAC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 28

The Colac Housing Land Supply Assessment 2016, prepared by Rod Bright and Associates, was commissioned to prepare a housing supply land assessment. It sought to ascertain the potential lot and associated dwelling yield for Colac (including Elliminyt) under current conditions in the context of residential land use zones (General Residential, Low Density Residential and Rural Living zoned land) and identification of constraints. The report finds that Colac and Elliminyt contains 740.65ha of undeveloped or underdeveloped potential housing supply land, with 164.4ha in the General Residential Zone (with 77.9% constrained from subdivision and development). Low Density Residential and Rural Living zoned land combined comprises 576 hectares, of which 232.6 hectares (40%) is constrained from subdivision. Over the next two years (till 2018), 135 lots are likely to be available, which meets the current minimum forecast of 60 lots per annum. From 2018 till 2026, the report states that there should be 413 sites available (or 52 per annum). Beyond 2026, the Colac Housing Land Supply Assessment 2016 notes that housing land supply is uncertain, and will depend upon new land being rezoned and/or physical constraints on the land (flooding, lack of sewer access etc) being overcome. The report also notes that infill development within the existing urban centre can provide opportunity for land supply, however this is difficult to quantify.

9.0 CONCLUSION Colac township comprises the areas of Colac Central, Colac West, Colac East and Elliminyt and forms the commercial hub of the Colac Otway Shire and part of the wider western district. Across the early 1990’s the population declined, although the number of dwellings continued to expand. Since the late 1990’s this decline reversed and there has been steady growth, particularly in the years since 2006. Whilst household size continues to gradually fall, the size of dwellings (at least in terms of the number of bedrooms) has increased. The population is ageing, with the number of young people falling over recent years and older age groups expanding. This should impact upon the type of dwelling required into the future in Colac, although smaller, household sizes do not necessarily lead to smaller and more affordable dwellings in Colac, and other rural and regional areas.

On assessing the forecast population growth, and using the 2011 – 2016 as an indicators of future growth and the G21 land supply monitor forecast, between 60 – 111 new dwellings per year will be required to meet the housing needs of Colac up until 2031. If Council seeks to reach the aspirational year 2050 target of 20,000 persons, then 86 new dwellings are required per annum till 2050. Growth is likely to concentrate on Elliminyt and, to a lesser extent, Colac West and Colac East. It is forecast that on current growth rates, Colac Central will have limited population growth.

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As stated, it is difficult to accurately predict long term growth scenarios in Colac up until 2050. However, if current trends continue, and noting the forecasted aging population and decreasing household size, an increasing proportion of medium density dwellings will be required in Colac. Id consulting forecast an additional 960 single persons and couples without children households in Colac in 2036. Working on the assumption that, statistically, all these households would require a one or two-bedroom dwelling, this would require an additional 38 such dwellings each year from 2011, or over half of new dwellings forecast (at the lower rate of 60 new dwellings per annum). Whilst such demand forecasting is simplistic and somewhat unlikely given that some people prefer larger dwellings or choose to remain in the family home as children move away, it does indicate that medium density dwellings will need to increase as a percentage of the housing mix in Colac.

In this regard, existing urban areas of Colac (in particular Colac Central) are well suited to achieve population growth, where infill housing and redevelopment of older style dwellings with medium density development can occur. Medium density dwellings are best suited in walkable neighbourhoods, within 400m of activity centres, transport links and employment opportunities. The growth of medium density dwellings should be encouraged in these areas through appropriate land use policy. Elliminyt, traditionally the home of detached dwellings, must also provide options for smaller dwellings to meet future changing population needs and provide a diverse housing market.

Considering residential land supply in Colac and Elliminyt, the Colac Housing Land Supply Assessment 2016 found that on current trends, from 2018 the estimated residential land supply will not keep up with forecast demand. The Assessment notes that significant tracts of residential land in Colac are constrained by a combination of lack of access to a sewerage network, flooding and poor drainage and land fragmentation. Further infrastructure upgrades can partially address this shortfall. Infill development will provide some opportunity for increased land supply. It is noted that if the higher levels of demand are assumed, as noted in G21 data, then future residential land supply falls well short of forecast demand.

In summary, there are numerous growth opportunities in Colac, ranging from greenfield to infill development. In smaller towns, often where underlying land values and access and servicing issues shape where new development occurs, greenfield development is generally prioritised. However in Colac, there appears to be increasing demand for higher density development. Land use policies must identify and promote both greenfield and infill residential development opportunities in Colac. They must allow for at least 60 new dwellings per annum, and upward of 111 new dwellings with a mix of land sizes and potential design outcomes to cater for both immediate and long term housing needs. It is therefore imperative that future residential land supply meet forecast demand. Additional land must be made available to meet residential growth needs.

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10.0 GLOSSARY

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

Ageing in place This refers to an existing resident population ageing in their current location, as distinct from other impacts on future population such as births, deaths and in and out migration.

Average annual percentage change A calculation of the average change in total population for each individual year.

Average household size The average number of person’s resident in each occupied private dwelling. Calculated as the number of persons in occupied private dwellings divided by the number of occupied private dwellings. This excludes persons living in non-private dwellings, such as prisons, military bases, nursing homes etc.

'Bottom up' forecast Population forecast based on assumptions made at the local area level. Local drivers of change such as land stocks and local area migration form the basis.

Commencement The construction of a new dwelling (or beginning of).

Dwelling A habitable residential building.

Dwelling stock The supply of dwellings (either occupied or unoccupied) in a given geographic area.

Empty nesters Parents whose children have left the family home to establish new households elsewhere.

Estimated Resident Population (ERP) This is the estimate of the population based on their usual residence. The ERP at the time of the Census is calculated as the sum of the enumerated (counted) population plus persons temporarily absent less persons who are non-permanent (visitor) residents. An undercount of population by small area at Census time is also accounted for. The ERP used in these forecasts is then backdated to June 30. The ERP for forecast years are based on adding to the estimated population the components of natural increase and net migration.

Forecast period In this report, the forecast period is from 2011 to 2036. Most data on the website has focused on the period from 2011 to 2036 plus 15.

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Household One or more persons living in a structural private dwelling.

Mature families One and two parent families with older children, generally of secondary and tertiary school age.

Medium Density Housing Residential development that is at a higher density than standard broad hectare development (8 -15 dwelling per hectare). It can range from 25 – 80 dwellings per hectare, but generally is considered between 30 – 40 dwellings per hectare.

Natural increase The increase in population based on the births minus deaths, not including the impact of migration.

Net household additions The overall increase in occupied dwellings, determined by the level of new dwelling construction that is permanently occupied, or conversion of non-permanently occupied dwellings to permanently occupied minus demolitions.

Non-private dwellings These dwellings include persons resident in establishments such as prisons, student or nurses’ accommodation, nursing homes, boarding houses, military facilities, and hospitals.

Occupancy rate The proportion of structural private dwellings that are occupied by a household.

Occupied Private Dwellings (OPD) These are all Structural Private Dwellings (SPD’s) that are occupied by a household. Excluded are dwellings that were under construction, being demolished or where the house was temporarily vacant.

Private dwellings Self-contained dwelling including houses (attached or detached), flats, townhouses etc. Retirement village units are also private dwellings as are houses or flats rented from the government.

Vacancy rate The proportion of structural private dwellings that are not occupied by a household.

Young families One and two parent families with young children, generally of pre and primary school age.

Source : id consulting 2016

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