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Cognitive and socio-emotional
skills of the Bulgarian workforce
Findings from the Bulgarian Longitudinal
Inclusive Society Survey (BLISS)
Abla Safir
June, 2015
Outline
2
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
Outline
3
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
Bulgaria’s population is aging and shrinking
4
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Cze
ch
Re
pu
blic
Slo
ve
nia
Slo
va
kia
Hu
ng
ary
Po
land
Esto
nia
Lith
ua
nia
Cro
atia
Ro
ma
nia
Latv
ia
Bu
lgaria
Pe
rce
nt
Population dynamics, 2010-2050
There was a recent shift in labor demand from
low-skill to higher-skill intensive sectors
5
18.3 1713.2
8.95.3
-4.2 -5.9-10.9
-20.1
-39.8-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30IC
T
Fin
ancia
l se
rvic
es
Real e
sta
te
Busin
ess s
erv
ices
Art
s, e
nte
rta
inm
ent
Tra
de,
tra
nsp
ort
, h
ote
ls
Pub
lic a
dm
inis
tratio
n
Agri
cultu
re
Ma
nufa
ctu
ring
Co
nstr
uctio
n
Cumulative employment growth, 2008-2013
Source: WB calculations based on NSI data
Employment Composition (simple cross country average by type of
occupation)
(2000-2012)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Sh
are
in
to
tal e
mp
loym
en
t (%
)
OECD countries
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Routine cognitive or manual
Non-routine manual
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Sh
are
in
to
tal e
mp
loym
en
t (%
)
Developing countries
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Routine cognitive or manual
Non-routine manual
Source: WDR 2016 team, based on ILO KILM data. Skills classification follows Autor (2014).
There are concerns about the preparedness of
Bulgaria’s current workforce…
7
Worker education ranked as the
fourth-most important concern of
Bulgaria’s employers in 2008
This concern was especially
severe in IT sector and some sub-
sectors of manufacturing
… and future workforce to address the
demographic challenge
8
Distribution of students by proficiency level in
math, 2012
Source: PISA 2012 data.
Index of School Social Stratification
Bulgaria has the highest rate of
functional innumeracy in Europe…
…and the highest
level of school social
stratification
Objectives
9
• Examine the skills profile of Bulgaria’s current workforce
• Assess the relationship between skills and labor market
outcomes
Labor force participation
Employability
Public vs private employment
Earnings
Outline
10
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
The three dimensions of skills
11
Cognitive
Involving the use of logical, intuitive and
creative thinking
Problem solving ability (as opposed to having knowledge to solve a
specific problem)
Verbal ability, numeracy, problem solving, memory (working and long-term)
and mental speed
Socio-emotional
“Soft” skills, social skills, life-skills, personality
traits
Openness to experience, conscientiousness,
extraversion, agreeability, emotional
stability
Self-regulation, perseverance, decision making, interpersonal
skills
Technical
Involving manual dexterity and / or the use
of methods, materials, tools and instruments
Technical skills developed through
vocational schooling or acquired on the job
Skills related to a specific occupation (e.g. engineer, economist, IT
specialist, etc)
Socio-emotional skills are important to employers
12
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
EMEA
Americas
Global
Bulgaria
Asia-Pacific
% of employers citing workplace competencies (soft skills) as reason for difficulty in filling a vacancy
Source: Manpower 2012 data.
Outline
13
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
The Bulgarian Longitudinal Inclusive Society
Survey (BLISS)
Implemented by the World Bank in partnership with
Open Society Institute – Sofia
Builds on the data collected in three rounds of
Bulgaria’s Crisis Monitoring Survey (CMS) in 2010-
2011
Sample: nationally-representative with 2,400 + 300
households in segregated (mostly Roma)
neighborhoods
Questionnaire: Changes focus from crisis impacts to
more structural issues on activation & skills
Innovative module on cognitive and socio-emotional
skills for a nationally-representative sample of the
adult (18-65) population
Cognitive skills assessment in BLISS
• Memory: short-term recall of increasingly longer number sequences, starting with two
numbers and ending with 9 numbers (12 items)
• Semantics: familiarity with synonyms, antonyms, idioms, complex sentence structure (7
multiple-choice items)
• Reading comprehension: ability to respond to questions about a short non-technical text
(5 multiple-choice items)
• Comprehension of tables and charts: ability to understand written instructions and ability
to read a timetable (4 multiple-choice items)
• Numeracy: ability to perform simple calculations (6 multiple-choice items)
What is the promotional price of
one bottle in the package?
Before the sale, how much did
three packages cost?
In cents, what is the reduction in
package price during the sale?
Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (1/2)
Work and learning style factor: captures the individual’s attitude towards work and his
willingness to learn new things. It’s a combination of the following skills:
Conscientiousness: tendency to be organized, responsible, and hardworking (i.e.
When doing a task, are you very careful?).
Openness to experience: tendency to be open to new aesthetic, cultural, or
intellectual experiences (i.e. Are you very interested in learning new things?).
Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals (i.e. Do you finish whatever you
begin?).
Achievement-striving: facet of conscientiousness: need for personal achievement
and sense of direction (i.e. Do you do more than what's expected of you?).
Decision making: process of generating solutions and considering future
consequences (i.e. Do you think about how the things you do will affect you in the
future?).
Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (2/2)
Relational factor: captures how the individual socializes. It’s a combination of the following
skills:
Extraversion: orientation of one’s interests and energies toward the outer world of
people and things rather than the inner world of subjective experience;
characterized by positive affect and sociability. (i.e. Are you talkative?).
Agreeableness: tendency to act in a cooperative, unselfish manner (i.e. Are you
generous to other people with your time or money?).
A facet of openness to experience: Do you enjoy beautiful things, like nature, art,
and music?
A facet of decision making: Do you ask for help when you don't understand
something?
Fixed mindset factor: belief that one’s personality is malleable or fixed (i.e. As much
as I hate to admit it, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. You can’t really change their
deepest attributes).
Outline
18
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
Skills profile: Significant but not perfect
correlation with educational attainment
Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
******
*** ******
***
*** ***
** ** ****** *** *** *** ***
***
******
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5M
em
ory
Sem
antics
Re
adin
g o
f te
xts
Re
adin
g o
f o
ther
Nu
mera
cy
Overa
ll cogn
itiv
e
Re
lation
al fa
cto
r
Work
ing
/le
arn
ing s
tyle
facto
r
Fix
ed
min
dse
t fa
cto
r
Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills
Sta
nd
ard
ized
sco
re
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Education
Primary or below
Secondary (base)
Bachelor
MA/PhD
Skills profile: Older adults have lower cognitive
but higher socio-emotional skills related to
socializing with others
Notes: Significant differences from base category, controlling for education: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%.
Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
** *** *** ***
***
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Me
mo
ry
Sem
antics
Re
adin
g o
f te
xts
Re
adin
g o
f o
ther
Nu
mera
cy
Overa
ll cogn
itiv
e
Re
lation
al fa
cto
r
Work
ing
/le
arn
ing s
tyle
facto
r
Fix
ed
min
dse
t fa
cto
r
Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills
Sta
nd
ard
ized
sco
re
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Age
18-29
30-49 (base)
50-65
Skills profile: Almost no gender differences in
skills
Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
*
***
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15M
em
ory
Sem
antics
Re
adin
g o
f te
xts
Re
adin
g o
f o
ther
Nu
mera
cy
Overa
ll cogn
itiv
e
Re
lation
al fa
cto
r
Work
ing
/le
arn
ing s
tyle
facto
r
Fix
ed
min
dse
t fa
cto
r
Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills
Sta
nd
ard
ized
sco
re
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Gender
Men (base)
Women
Skills Matter for the Employment of Men, While
Education Matters More for Women
*
**
**
**
**
**
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
Cognitive skills Relational factor Work/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor
Men
Women
All
Socio-Emotional Skills Matter for the Type of
Employment of Women: Different Skills in the
Public and Private Sectors
**
*
*
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Cognitive skills Relational factor Work/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor
Men
Women
All
Cognitive and Socio-Emotional Skills Are
Correlated with Earnings
***
**
***
*
***
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Cognitive skills Relational factor Work/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor
Men
Women
All
Summary
Being in the labor
force, for working-
age individuals
Being employed, for
active working-age
individuals
Being employed in
the private sector, for
working working-age
individuals
Earnings, for
employed working-
age individuals
Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men
Cognitive skills
Relational factor
Work/learning style factor
Fixed mindset factor
Secondary education
Post-secondary education
Outline
26
Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?
Definitions: What do we mean by skills?
Data: How do we measure skills?
Findings
Conclusions
Skill formation benefits from earlier investments
and is cumulative
27
Policy implications
28
• Early childhood and formal education:
• Expand access to preschool and early years
programs
• Delay vocationalization / early tracking
• Adapt school curriculum and teaching methods: – To Develop Socio-emotional skills
– For disadvantaged communities
• Active Labor Market Programs:
• Increase Participation
• Incorporate socio-emotional skills interventions*http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20426330/developing-social-emotional-skills-labor-market-practice-model
• In 2013, only 7% of Bulgarians aged 18-65
participated in any training to improve their skills in
the previous 12 months
• Reasons for non-participation varied significantly
with the LM status:
Unemployed lacked awareness of any suitable
training
Inactive were not interested in training programs
• There appears to be potential untapped demand
for training
One third of Bulgarians are likely or rather likely to
use PES vouchers to obtain training to improve their
employability
More than half (57.7%) of the unemployed would
be willing to use this service
Source: World Bank staff calculations and assessment
based on BLISS (2013)29
Although participation in ALMPs is low, there is a
latent demand for this service
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18-29 30-49 50-65 Total
Reason to use the PES voucher
Other
Get skills in another specialization to get additional job
Personal interest
Get skills in another specialization to get a new job
Increase skills in own specialization to get a new job
Increase skills in own specialization to advance current job
Thank you
For questions and comments please contact
Ulrich Hoerning
[email protected], Tel: +1 202 473 4972
Victoria Levin
[email protected], Tel: +1 202 473 5392
Abla Safir
[email protected], Tel: +1 202 473 6015
