Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. MatlinChapter 12 Cognition, 8e Chapter 12 Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12

Cognition, 8e

Chapter 12

Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making


Chapter Introduction

dual-process theoryType 1 processing—fast and automaticType 2 processing—slow and controlled

Applies to both deductive reasoning and decision making.


Deductive Reasoning

The Confirmation BiasAre human beings rational?The Standard Wason Selection Task

Demonstration 12.2: The Confirmation Bias—Wason's Selection Task


Deductive Reasoning

The Confirmation BiasThe Standard Wason Selection Task

confirmation bias• People tend to try to confirm or support a

hypothesis rather than try to disprove it.• In other words, people are eager to affirm

the antecedent, but reluctant to deny the consequent by searching for counterexamples.


Deductive Reasoning

The Confirmation BiasConcrete Versions of the Wason Selection Task

replace numbers and letters with concrete situations from everyday life

People perform much better when the task is concrete, familiar, and realistic.

Griggs and Cox (1982)—drinking age example

Performance improved when task implies a social contract.


Deductive Reasoning

The Confirmation BiasApplications in Medicine

People seek confirming evidence when self-diagnosing disorders (e.g., insomnia).

Both medical students and psychiatrists tend to select information consistent with their original diagnosis rather than investigate information that might be consistent with another diagnosis.


Decision Making

Kahneman and Tversky• proposed that a small number of heuristics

guide human decision making• The same strategies that normally guide us

toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray.


Decision Making

The Representativeness Heuristicrepresentativeness heuristic• People judge that a sample is likely if it is

similar to the population from which the sample was selected.

• People believe that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes.

• This heuristic is so persuasive that people often ignore important statistical information that they should consider.


Decision Making

The Representativeness HeuristicSample Size and Representativeness

hospital babies example

A large sample is statistically more likely than a small sample to reflect the true proportions in a population.

small-sample fallacy—assume a small sample will be representative of the population from which it was selected


Decision Making

The Representativeness HeuristicBase Rate and Representativeness

Demonstration 12.3: Base Rates and Representativeness—Tom Wbase rate—how often an item occurs in the populationbase-rate fallacy—emphasize representativeness and underemphasize important information about base rates


Decision Making

The Representativeness HeuristicThe Conjunction Fallacy and Representativeness

Demonstration 12.4: Tversky and Kahneman• "Linda is a bank teller and a feminist."• students with different levels of statistical

sophistication• rank statements in terms of probability


Decision Making

The Representativeness HeuristicThe Conjunction Fallacy and Representativeness

conjunction rule—The probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events.conjunction fallacy—when people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent event


Decision Making

The Availability Heuristicavailability heuristic—estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples

only accurate when availability is correlated with true, objective frequency

can be distorted by recency and familiarity


Decision Making

The Availability HeuristicRecency and Availability

• Memory is better for more recent items.• Recent items are more available.• People judge recent items to be more likely

than they really are.


Decision Making

The Availability HeuristicRecency and Availability

MacLeod and Campbell (1992)• When people were encouraged to recall

pleasant events from their past, they later judge pleasant events to be more likely in their future.

• When people were encouraged to recall unpleasant events, they later judged unpleasant events to be more likely.

• implications for psychotherapy


Decision Making

The Availability HeuristicFamiliarity and Availability

Brown and colleaguespopulation estimates for various countries

points of view shown by the media

People need to use critical thinking and shift to Type 2 processing.


Decision Making

The Availability HeuristicThe Recognition Heuristic

When comparing the relative frequency of two categories, if people recognize one category and not the other, they conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency.

This strategy generally leads to an accurate decision.


Decision Making

The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Demonstration 12.5When making an estimate, people begin with a first approximation (anchor) and then make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information.

People rely too heavily on the anchor, and their adjustments are too small; over-influence of current hypotheses or beliefs, top-down processing


Decision Making


Research on the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Demonstration 12.5: MultiplicationIf the first number was large, the estimates were higher than if the first number was small.single-digit numbers anchored the estimates far too low


Decision Making


Research on the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

• operates even when anchor is obviously arbitrary or impossibly extreme

• operates for both novices and experts• anchor may restrict the search for relevant

information in memory• applications in everyday life: courtroom

sentences


Decision Making

The Framing Effectframing effect—the outcome of a decision can be influenced by:

1) the background context of the choice2) the way in which a question is worded


Decision Making

The Framing EffectThe Wording of a Question and the Framing Effect

People are distracted by surface structure of the questions.

The exact wording of a question can have a major effect on the answers.


Decision Making


Tversky and Kahneman (1981)—lives saved/lives lost study (Demonstration 12.8)

• "lives saved" question led to more "risk averse" choices

• "lives lost" question led to more "risk taking" choices


Decision Making


prospect theory1. When dealing with possible gains (for

example, lives saved), people tend to avoid risks.

2. When dealing with possible losses (for example, lives lost), people tend to seek risks.


Decision Making

In Depth: Overconfidence About Decisions

General Studies on Overconfidence• occurs in a variety of situations• own decisions vs. statistically observable

measurements• variety of personal skills• individual differences• cross-cultural differences


Decision Making


Overconfidence in Political Decision Making

sexual scandalsinternational conflictfailure to think systematically about the risks involvedEach side tends to overestimate its own chances of success.


Decision Making


Overconfidence in Political Decision Making

Politicians are often overconfident that their data are accurate.crystal-ball technique—imagine a completely accurate crystal ball indicates that your hypothesis is incorrect


Decision Making


Overconfidence About Completing Projects on Time

planning fallacy• underestimate the amount of time (or

money) required to complete a project

• estimate the task will be relatively easy to complete


Decision Making


Overconfidence About Completing Projects on Time

Possible Explanations• optimistic scenario• failure to consider potential problems• memory for similar tasks• over-estimate future free time


Decision Making


Reasons for Overconfidence1. People are often unaware that their knowledge

is based on very tenuous and uncertain assumptions and on information from unreliable or inappropriate sources.

2. Examples that confirm our hypotheses are readily available, whereas we resist searching for counterexamples.


Decision Making


Reasons for Overconfidence3. People have difficulty recalling the other

possible hypotheses, and decision making depends on memory. If you cannot recall the competing hypotheses, you will be overly confident about the hypothesis you have endorsed.


Decision Making


Reasons for Overconfidence4. Even if people manage to recall the other

possible hypotheses, they do not treat them seriously.

5. Researchers do not educate the public about the overconfidence problem. As a result, we typically do not pause and ask ourselves, ‘‘Am I relying only on Type 1 thinking? I need to switch over to Type 2 thinking!’’


Decision Making


my-side bias—overconfidence that one's own view is correct in a confrontational situation; often results in conflict; cannot even consider the possibility that their opponent's position may be at least partially correct


Decision Making

The Hindsight Biashindsight—judgments about events that already happened in the past

hindsight bias—judging an event as inevitable, after the event has already happened; overconfidence that we could have predicted the outcome in advance


Decision Making

The Hindsight BiasResearch About the Hindsight Bias

Carli (1999)—judgments about people; Barbara/Jack study

happy vs. tragic endingBoth groups are confident that they could have predicted the ending.Memory errors are consistent with the outcome.


Decision Making

The Hindsight BiasResearch About the Hindsight Bias (continued)

political eventsbusiness decisions

Explanations for the Hindsight Biasanchoring and adjustmentmisremembering past events


Decision Making

Current Status of Heuristics and Decision Making

Kahneman's heuristic approach may be too pessimistic

Harris and colleagues—People make fairly realistic judgments about future events.


Decision Making


Girgerenzer and colleagues• People are not perfectly rational decision

makers, however people can do relatively well when they are given a fair chance.

• ecological rationality—People create a wide variety of heuristics to help them make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world.


Decision Making


Girgerenzer and colleagues• default heuristic—If there is a default

option, then people will choose it.• People bring world knowledge into the

research laboratory.


Decision Making


Both Kahneman's and Gigerenzer's approaches suggest that decision-making heuristics generally serve us well in the real world.

We can become more effective decision makers by realizing the limitations of these important strategies.


Decision Making

Individual Differences: Decision-Making Style and Psychological Well-Being

Maximizers—tend to examine as many options as possible (maximizing decision-making style); may lead to "choice overload"

Satisficers—tend to settle for something that is satisfactory (satisficing decision-making style)


Decision Making


Schwartz and coauthors (2002)—Demonstration 12.9

• maximizer/satisficer scale and several other measures

• students, healthcare professionals, people waiting in a train station


Decision Making


Schwartz and coauthors (2002) (continued)• Maximizers tended to experience more

regret following a choice than satisficers.• Maximizers tended to experience more

depressive symptoms than satisficers.• More choices don't necessarily make a

person happier.

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Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. MatlinChapter 12 Cognition, 8e Chapter 12 Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making