RTI International

RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute. www.rti.org

Coastal Monitoring Networkto Study Effects of Climate Change

Defense Coastal/EstuarineResearch Program (DCERP2)

April 2014

Kim Matthew

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Program Overview

10-year, $24-million contract

– DCERP1: 2006-2012

– DCERP2: 2013-2017

RTI is leading a multi-disciplinary team ofresearchers

– 6 universities

– 2 federal agencies

– 3 small businesses

DCERP2 Team

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Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina

Location

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New River Estuary

Relatively small (88 km2)– 32 km long by 3 km wide (max)

Semi-lagoonal with a flushingtime of ~70 days

Shallow estuary with 56% ofthe water column depth < 2meters

Highly sensitive to nutrientinputs, periodic phytoplanktonblooms and periods ofseasonal bottom waterhypoxia

Land use– Agricultural in upper watershed

– Urban near head of estuary

– Forest surrounding estuary

Bathymetry of the New River Estuary4

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Climate Change Objective

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Determine how ecosystem processes respond toclimate change to understand the resiliency andadaptive capacity of the ecosystem.

Warming Wet/Dry Periods Sea Level Rise Episodic Events

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Coastal Monitoring Network

River and Creeks– New River (USGS Gage Stations)

– Coastal Streams (on DOD lands)

Estuary– Shallows (Benthos)

– Channel (Water Column)

Coastal Wetlands– Fringing marshes along ICW and

estuary

Barrier island– Onslow Island (DoD lands)

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Rivers and Creeks

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Climate and Land Use Affect Exports of Carbon, Sediments, andNutrients from Coastal Subwatersheds

Deploy flow gauge andautomated water sampler instreams with a range

Continuousmeasurement offlow, temp., waterlevel, conductivity

Storm and baseflowsamples analyzedfor DOC, POC,TSS, and nutrients

Analysis of landuseeffects on streamcarbon, nutrientand thermal loading

Rivers and Creeks

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Results: Tributary input

TSS – Increase withincreasing imperviousness

DOC loading – decrease withincreasing imperviousness

Loading is in units ofkilograms per hectare and isdivided into carbon deliveredduring base and stormflowconditions. Sites arepresented from leastdeveloped (left) to mostdeveloped (right) on the x-axis.

9 Studies by Dr. Mike Piehler, UNC-IMS

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Results: Warming in Coastal Streams

Stream temperature in the five study streams.

Temperature is in degrees C and is presented for each season since2008. Sites are presented from least developed (cool colors) to mostdeveloped (warm colors ).

10 Studies by Dr. Mike Piehler, UNC-IMS

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Estuarine Monitoring Program

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New River Estuary surface and bottom water salinity (as psu) during the 2007-2011sampling period. Upstream (microtidal) salinity is driven bystorm events and droughts (i.e. episodic)

NRE – Surface and Bottom Water

12 Studies by Dr. Hans Paerl, UNC-IMS

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Ecosystem drivers– Temperature

– River discharge

Indicators– Salinity

– Nutrients

– Phytoplankton

New River FW Discharge

and NRE Nutrient

Concentrations

13 Studies by Dr. Hans Paerl, UNC-IMS

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Flow drives productivity

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Flow strongly controls Chl a exceedances and blooms• Biomass and blooms lowest during drought• Blooms higher with moderate discharge and nutrient input• Dominate by flagellates• High flows flush the system

Studies by Dr. Hans Paerl, UNC-IMS

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This

or

This

Shallow waters

Shallow NRE acts as anitrogen filter

Dependent on lightavailability, temperature,and benthic chla, allaffected by freshwaterdischarge.

A net autotrophicbenthos takes up N; anet heterotrophicbenthos releases N.

15Studies by Dr. Iris Anderson, VIMS

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Estuarine Simulation Model

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J M M J S N J M M J S N

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a,m

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J M M J S N J M M J S N

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Model Output (e.g. criteria attainment)

PredictedIncreaseIn Chl

Baseline Chl

StateCriterion

Develop by Dr. Mark Brush, VIMS

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Climate-related researchAquatic/Estuarine Module

Changes to phytoplankton production and respiration and pCO2 fluxbetween water and air under different salinity conditions

● Assess changes in benthic microalgalproduction under different temperatureand salinity regimes using mesocosmstudies.

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Coastal Wetlands

Objective: Examinefactors controlling marshresponse to SLR andcarbon sequestration.

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Coastal Wetlands Monitoring

Variable Temporal Scale Spatial Scale MethodShoreline erosion Every 2–3 years 6 stations RTK-GPS, DEM

Marsh surfaceelevation change

Quarterly andepisodic events

16 SETs at 6 stations SETs

Marsh vegetationand snails

Annually Permanent 1 m2 plots,15–24 plots per site, 6sites

Stem density, stemheight, and percentcover; snail density

Water level,temperature,salinity

Continuous (every6 minutes)

2 stations Tide gauges

Shoreline erosion Marsh surface elevation Marsh biomass Water Level

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Assess historic marsh response to SLR over last 100years using sediment core geochronology

Assess impacts of SLR on marsh sustainability bydeveloping a Geospatial Marsh Model thatincorporates sediment transport processes andinfluence of marsh vegetation

Adaptive management pilot study –

(1) thin layer disposal of 10-20 cm of dredge materialadded to marsh surface at two marsh elevations

(2) shoreline stabilization by planting “living shoreline”of Spartina

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Future Climate-related studiesCoastal Wetlands

Sediment Coring

Living Shoreline, NC

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Barrier Island Monitoring

Predict MCBCL coastalmorphology undervarious climatescenarios

changes in dune andwashover fanmorphology

Changes inassociated ecosystemservices

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Well Location

100 m

June 2012

Nov. 2013Dec 2011

Washover Fan Morphology

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Studies by Dr. Tony Rodriguez, UNC

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Effects on Flora and Fauna

23 Studies by Dr. Tony Rodriguez and Steve Fegley, UNC

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Predict impacts of SLR and storminess on barrier islandshoreline position and coastal landforms (dune, beach andbackbarrier)

Determine how these geomorphic changes may affectcarbon flux as well as island flora, nesting sea turtles, andshorebirds.

Climate-related Studies

Aerial photo of washover fans (Hurricane Irene).

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More information: dcerp.rti.org

dcerp.rti.org

DCERP1 FinalReports

DCERP2 PlanningDocuments

Data Summary

Quarterlynewsletters

Publication

Presentations

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Acknowledgements

DCERP Researchers: Hans Paerl, Mike Piehler, IrisAnderson, Scott Ensign, Jen Stanhope, Nathan Hall,Joey Croswell, Rachel Smith, Carolyn Currin, TonyRodriquez, Steve Fegley, Rick Luettich, Brent McKee,Craig Tobias

DCERP On-site Coordinator: Susan Cohen

This research was conducted under the Defense Coastal/EstuarineResearch Program (DCERP, https://dcerp.rti.org/), funded by theStrategic Environmental Research and Development Program(SERDP).

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More Information

Pat Cunningham

DCERP PI

919.316.3372

patc@rti.org

Kim Matthews

Research Scientist

919.316.3366

kmatthews@rti.org

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https://dcerp.rti.org

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Spatial Trends

Stations Stations

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Temporal Trends

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NRE – Chlorophyll aChlorophyll a exceedances of 40mg L-1 : Track FW discharge-driven blooms

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• Shoreline erosion rates weredetermined using aerialphotography from 1956, 1989,and 2004

• Between 1956 and 2004, theNew River Estuary shorelineposition receded an average of12.3 meters, or -0.28 m/yr

• Higher rates of erosion for mostshoreline types post 1989

Shoreline Erosion Rates – Historic Rates

31 Studies by Dr. Carolyn Currin, NOAA

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Shoreline Erosion – Current Rates

Change Analysis of DigitalElevation Models ofShoreline marsh sites(biannually/storm)

2 cm vertical accuracy Estimate sediment and C

flux via erosion/accretion Spring 2014 & 2016

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Estimate volume change andedge erosion

Net gain (red) andnet loss (blue)

Studies by Dr. Carolyn Currin, NOAA

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SET mm / y

TBB

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PPS

PPU

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Sediment accretion 1.5 - 6 x greater thanelevation change

Marsh Surface Elevation

SETs– 6 sites (NRE)

– 10 sites (ICW)

Marker Horizon– sediment accretion

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Barrier Island Station Locations

34 Studies by Dr. Tony Rodriguez, UNC