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CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 1
Serge PérineauWorld CTL
Coal Conversion to Products
World CTL
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 2
• Framework
– Energy Security & Logistics Stakes
– Technologies
– Environment
– Economics
• Current Development
– Commercial Units
– Projects and Operations
– International Co-operation
Coal Conversion to Products
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 4
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
A Growing Demand in Oil in the Medium Term
1985
Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012
1985 20352011
Transport
Power Residential
Industry
Heavy duty
Light duty
AviationRailMarine
Oil consumption (bbl/day)
« Current P
olicies » Scenario
450 ppm Scenario
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 5
Fossil Fuels: a Regional Security Issue
Source: BP Statistical Review 2011
Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia
Reserves of Conventional Fossil Fuels (Reserves/Consumption)
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 8
Technologies: conventional conversion routes
Gasification
Surface/Underground
Fischer-Tropsch
Liquid FuelsCoal
Synthetic Gas - CO+H2
Methanol
Dissolution Hydrotreatment RefiningLiquefaction
Indirect routes
Direct route
Majiata (Inner Mongolia)
Jamg (Shanxi, China)
Secunda (RSA)
Methanation Natural Gas
Great Plains, ND (USA)
Petrochemicals
Liquid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Methanol To Gasoline
Lu’An (China)
Refining
Yitai
(China)
Methanol To Olefins
Baotou (I. Mongolia)
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 10
Environment: Coal is most controversial
March 2, 2009, Washington DC (Reuters)March 26, 2009, World CTL Conference
« Coal is My Worst Nightmare »Steven Chu, Nobel physicist, U.S. Energy Secretary
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 11
Three steps:
• Coal mining: need for a responsible sourcing
• Conversion itself
– Need for water: 1 to 2 m3 per barrel: an issue in several regions
– Ashes, gaseous and liquid noxious emissions: managed through classical chemical processes
• Combustion: synthetic fuels are purer than from conventional fuels.
Environment: Local Stakes
Source: Idaho National Laboratory (2007)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sulfur oxides
Part. matter
(<10 ppm)
Nitrogen oxides
CO
Volatile org.
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 12
Global Issue: GreenHouse Gas Emissions
Case 1: Diesel produces from coal without CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage)
Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile):
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Diesel from
crude oil
CTL diesel
w/o CCS
Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *)
+63-100%
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 13
Global Issue: CCS & Biomass are CTL’s best allies
Case 2: Diesel produced from coal with CCS:
• CCS reduces by 90-95% the CO2 emissions within the CTL plant
• CCS is now included in most CTL projects.
Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile):
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Diesel from
crude oil
CTL diesel
w/o CCS
CTL diesel
with CCS *
CTL diesel
with 30%
biomass
CTL diesel,
CCS & 30%
biomass
CTL diesel,
CCS & 15%
biomass *
Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *)
-5-12% -4%
-46%
-30%
+63-100%
Reference: conventional diesel
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 14
CCS: Cost Breakdown
Capture
$25-75per
tonne CO2 Transport
Injection$1-5per
tonne CO2/100 km$1-2Per
tonne CO2
Source: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - 2005
In a CTL plant, CO2 is already captured
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 16
Crude Barrel Price Equivalent
2006
$/bbl - Crude Oil Equivalent
2007 2008
Rand
Shenhua
JP Morgan
U.S. DOE
U.S. DOE
U.S.
National
ResearchCouncilU.S. National
Coal Council
2009
JGC
JGC
PEIPEI
Technology providers
NRCNal
Acad.Yitai
2010 2011
IFP: Europe
IFP: USA
IFP: China
2012
Shenhua
Source: World CTL
GTC
SEI
RIL
Asiachem
Crude yearly average import price (source IEA)
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 17
Sensitivity Analysis
Source: U.S. DOE 2007
Variation of the Return on Investment in % for +/-25% variation of…
Other parameters: CO2 impact, subsidies, discount rate,…
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 18
Capital Expenditure
2006
x000$ / daily bbl
2007 2008
Shenhua
JP Morgan
DOE
DOE
NCC
2009
PEI
Technology providers
Scully Capital
SSEB
NRC
NalAcad.
2010 2011
Reported Capex - 40-50,000 bpd unit
2012Source: World CTL
Jindal
RIL
OIL 44
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 20
Many Projects, Several Demonstration Plants
Philippines
Mongolia
ArckaringaMmamabula
Waterberg
Tata Sasol
Assam
Irkutsk
SecundaSasolburg
Operations
Projects
Geleximco
Clinton
Ordos*
Fox Creek
SNG
CTL&Chem
4.3 Mm3/d20,000 bpd
160,000 bpd
Great Plans, ND
Bumi & Sasol
Spitfire Oil
L&M Lignite
Monash Latrobe
4,000 bpd
Lu’An*
4,000 bpdYitai*
Serafimovskiy
JAMG*
Baotou
600,000 tpa
Leuna
RIL Jamnagar
JSPL
NFL Coal India
Lubimbi
* In 2011 and 2012, Yitai, Lu’An, JAMG and Shenhua have anounced large extensions
KIER
Posco
Methanex
2,500 bpd
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 21
CTL projections
Source: U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (2009)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2011 2020 2030202520152009
CTL
Oil shale
BTL
2011 2020 2030202520152009
750
900
250
200
150
100
50
0
2,750
Sources: China Coal Information Institute (2009) and Shenhua (2010)
x000 barrels/day
2,700
700
Forecasts published in
• the U.S.A.
• the P.R. China
Shenhua
110 kbpd
Shenhua
442 kbpd
x000 barrels/day
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 22
2004-2012 Gasification Plant Startups
China
U.S. 0
42
Source: Gasification Technologies Council, 2012
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 23
CTL projections: International Energy Agency
Shenhua 442 kbpd
Sources: IEA – World Energy Outlook 2011
x000 barrels/dayIndia (World CTL’12)JSPL: 80,000Tata Sasol: 80,000NFL/Coal India: 5,000RIL: 80,000
China (decided, 2012)Shenhua: 60,000Lu’An: 40,000JAMG: 25,000Yitai: 10,000
A significant increase, but volumes will remain low.
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 24
International Co-Operations and World CTL
• A balanced program for CTL stakeholders: Coal, Oil, technology providers, project
holders, research centers, suppliers.
• Rates of satisfaction: ranked “excellent” or “good” by 95-98% of participants
The global leading hub on Coal & Petcoke conversion to
Liquid Fuels, SNG and Chemicals
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 25
Top Speakers and World CTL Award
Presentations, networking, appraisal
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 26
World CTL Conference Locations
2009Washington D.C.
2008 & 2011Paris
2010 & 2012: Beijing2013: Shanghai
2012: New Delhi2013: Mumbai
CFFSKN – February 14, 2013 www.world-ctl.com 27
• Coal is fully available.
• Coal conversion answers energy security and logistics concerns.
• CTL will remain marginal on a global basis.
• Environment is a key issue. Technology improvement, CCS and
Biomass are CTL’s best allies.
• Several Demonstration Plants are now in operation. Extensions in process.
• CTL is highly competitive at current energy prices, although capital intensive.
• China has taken the lead, Korea and India also active.
• International Co-Operations keep developing. World CTL is
committed to support this trend.
Conclusion