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CO2
What about it?
Grégoire LesecqProject Director – Sustainable Development
2CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
The Facts
3CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 emissions increase
Source : CDIAC
Reached 8.2 billion tons of carbon emissions in 2006
0
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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050Year
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arbo
nLiquidSolidGasCement ProductionGas flaringTOTAL
4CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 emissions in the world
Source : CDIAC
5CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Temperatures Increase
Source : IPCC
Global Average Surface Temperature has increased by 0.7°C over the last 50 years and continue to increase at very rapid rate.
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8°C to 4°C)
6CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Ice caps are melting
Source : CAN
Within 30 years North polar ice cap has decreased of 20%.
7CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Sea Levels increase
Source : Benfield Hazards Research Centre, Rhamstorf
Sea levels are currently rising at 3.4 mm per year.
Most climate change models forecast a global sea-level rise between 0.5 to 1.4 meters by 2100.
8CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Natural disaters increase
Source : CRED
9CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Worldwide population increases
Global Population: 6bn 9bn by 2050
Source : UNPD
10CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
The Causes
11CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Greenhouse Effect
The greenhouse effect is the natural process of the atmosphere letting in some of the energy
we receive from the Sun and stopping this energy being transmitted back out into space.
With water vapor, Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are in order :
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)• Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) • Fluor-Gases
Source : IPCC
Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature would be about -18° Celsius.
12CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 and Temperatures are linked
Source : Leland McInnes, IPCC
Historical records show that when CO2 concentration increases then the Temperatures increase.
Relationship between CO2 concentration and temperatures
Today, CO2 concentration is about 384 ppm
Check here www.co2now.org
13CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
To summarize
Source : ACIA
Worldwide Temperatures
due to
CO2 concentrations
due to
CO2 emissions
due to
Human activities
14CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
The Consequences
15CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
What will happen
An increase in global temperature may impact the balance of the world and such as:
• Oceans circulation disrupted, the Gulf Stream changes its path• Increases in the intensity of extreme weather events – hurricanes, tornados • Change of the amount and pattern of rainfall precipitation over the world • Expansion of subtropical deserts. • Increased deaths from heat waves. • Changes in agricultural yields that can lead to food shortages.• Starvation, malnutrition, and increased deaths due to food and crop shortages • Water shortages in already water-scarce areas. • Massive dislocation of worldwide wildlife and loss of habitat • Increased disease in humans and animals.• Increased emigration of population to wealthier countries• Species extinctions,
16CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Examples of impacts
Source : WHO
17CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Raise of the level of the oceans
Source : rising risk of climate change Mc Granahan
Example:
Yellow Sea Coastal Region
18CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Where do we go?
19CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Thresholds: 2°C & 350ppm CO21996
“[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial level (pre 1900) and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2 should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. [...]” (1939th Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)
Source : Meinshausen, Watson et al.
2009
Today most of the scientist express the need to stabilize CO2 concentration at 350 ppm to reach the 2°C target
20CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
How the “2°C target” can be reached?
Source : ETH Zurich
If CO2 emissions are halved by 2050 compared to 1990, global warming can be stabilized below two degrees.From 2000 to 2050, a maximum of 1000 billion tons of CO2 may be emitted into the atmosphere. (234 billion tons had already been flung into the atmosphere between 2000 and 2006.)
The global long-term goal would be less than 1 ton per person per year.
21CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Long Term Target:Emission of 1 ton of CO2 per
capita per year
Source : Worldbank
In 2008, 6 tons of CO2 per person are emitted in Western Europe each year, 19 tons in North America and 3 tons in China
22CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Source : Worldbank
23CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 & Cement
24CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Source : World Resources Institute
CO2 & Cement
in 2005, Cement Production represents 5% (2,200 million tons) of worldwide CO2emissions per year
25CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Cement Demand
Source : Cembureau, Lafarge, JP Morgan
The generally accepted projection of global growth in demand for cement through 2025 is that it will continue to grow by an average 5% per year to reach around 4.7 billion tons.
26CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Cement Consumption per Capita
Source : Cembureau, JP Morgan
27CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 / Cement ratio
in 2005,
Worldwide cement Production was 2,300 million tons of cement for a total CO2 emissions of 2,200 million tons.
When you produce
1 ton of cement
you also produce 0.9 ton of CO2
NB: Majors Cement producers work to decrease this figure
28CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Exemple : Cement Producer CO2 Emissions
Source : Cembureau, Lafarge
29CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
Cement Producer Objective
30CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 & Transports
31CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 & Transports
in 2005, Rail, Ship & other Transport represents 2.5% (1,100 million tons) of worldwide CO2emissions per year
Source : World Resources Institute
32CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 & Transports
Source : Fearnley's Review
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the operation of merchant ships contributes about US$380 billion in freight rates within the global economy, equivalent to about 5% of total world trade.
In the longer term, the fact that shipping is the most fuel efficient and carbon friendly form of commercial transport should work in favor of an even greater proportion of world trade being carried by sea.
World Seaborne Trade 1969-2009
33CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 & Transports
Source : NTM Sweden
34CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq
CO2 Emissions of Ships
Source : National Technical University of Athens