CO2 Ag Turn HSS

8/9/2019 CO2 Ag Turn HSS

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Wave 3 HSS Assignments


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Warming Impact Turns


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CO2 Agriculture


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1NC C02 Ag

CO2 is key t plant gr!t" slves resurce impactsCarter et al# 1$, Dr. Craig D. Idso is founder and chairman of the Center

for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Since 1998, he has beenthe editor and chief contributor to the online magazine C! Science. "e isthe author of se#eral boo$s, including %he &any 'ene(ts of )tmos*heric C!+nrichment !-11 and C! , Global /arming and Coral 0eefs !--9. "eearned a h.D. in geogra*hy from )rizona State 2ni#ersity )S2, 3here helectured in meteorology and 3as a faculty researcher in the 4ce ofClimatology. Dr. Sher3ood '. Idso is *resident of the Center for the Study ofCarbon Dioxide and Global Change. re#iously he 3as a 0esearch hysicist3ith the 2.S. De*artment of )griculture5s )gricultural 0esearch Ser#ice at the2.S. /ater Conser#ation 6aboratory in hoenix, )rizona. "e is the author orco7author of o#er -- scienti(c *ublications including the boo$s CarbonDioxide :riend or :oe; 198! and Carbon Dioxide and Global Change +arth

in %ransition 1989. "e ser#ed as an )d,htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,@?@1?!-1A Ber3in%esults &taine' un'er 3()*+ separate sets , e-perimentalcn'itins cn'ucte' n )$. plant species reveal nearly all plantse-perience increases in 'ry !eig"t r &imass in respnse tatmsp"eric CO2 enric"ment#)dditional results obtained under !,-9Ase*arate ex*erimental conditions conducted on A! *lant s*ecies re#ealnearly all plants e-perience increases in t"eir rates ,

p"tsynt"esis in respnse t atmsp"eric CO2 enric"ment# / ngterm CO2 enric"ment stu'ies cnrm t"e n'ings , s"rterterme-periments( 'emnstrating t"at t"e gr!t"en"ancing( !atercnserving( an' stressalleviating eects , elevate' atmsp"ericCO2 likely persist t"rug"ut plant li,etimes# / 4rest pr'uctivityan' gr!t" rates t"rug"ut t"e !rl' "ave increase' gra'uallysince t"e In'ustrial %evlutin in cncert !it"( an' in respnse t(t"e "istrical increase in t"e air5s CO2 cncentratin# T"ere,re( ast"e atmsp"ere5s CO2 cncentratin cntinues t rise( ,rests !illlikely respn' &y e-"i&iting signicant increases in &imasspr'uctin an' t"ey likely !ill gr! mre r&ustly an' signicantlye-pan' t"eir ranges# &odest increases in air tem*erature tend to

increase carbon storage in forests and their soils. %hus, l'gr!t" ,restscan &e signicant car&n sinks an' t"eir capacity t se6uestercar&n in t"e ,uture !ill &e en"ance' as t"e air5s CO2 cntentcntinues t rise. )s the atmos*here5s C! concentration increases, the*roducti#ity of grassland s*ecies 3ill increase e#en under unfa#orablegro3ing conditions characterized by less7than7adeEuate soil moisture,inadeEuate soil nutrition, ele#ated air tem*erature, and *hysical stressim*osed by herbi#ory. / T"e t"a!ing , perma,rst cause' &y increasesin air temperature !ill likely nt trans,rm peatlan's ,rm car&n


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sinks t car&n surces# Instea'( rapi' terrestriali7atin likely !illact t intensi,y car&nsink cn'itins# / %ising atmsp"eric CO2cncentratins likely !ill en"ance t"e pr'uctivity an' car&nse6uestering a&ility , 8art"5s !etlan's# In a''itin( elevate' CO2may "elp sme castal !etlan's cunter&alance t"e negativeimpacts , rising seas# 0ising atmos*heric C! concentrations li$ely 3ill

allo3 greater numbers of bene(cial bacteria that hel* seEuester carbon andnitrogen to exist 3ithin soils and anaerobic 3ater en#ironments, therebybene(tting both terrestrial and aEuatic ecosystems. %he aerial fertilizationeFect of atmos*heric C! enrichment li$ely 3ill result in greater soil carbonstores due to increased carbon in*ut to soils, e#en in nutrient7*oor soils andin s*ite of *redicted increases in tem*erature. T"e car&nse6uesteringcapa&ility , 8art"5s vegetatin likely !ill act as a signicant &raken t"e rate,rise , t"e air5s CO2 cntent an' t"ere&y "elp t mutet"e magnitu'e , any CO2in'uce' gl&al !arming# %he historicalincrease in the air5s C! content has signi(cantly reduced the erosion of#aluable to*soil o#er the *ast se#eral decades the continuing increase inatmos*heric C! can maintain this trend and *erha*s e#en accelerate it for

the foreseeable future.

CO2 causes 6uick plant evlutin t"at mitigates t"eimpact( an' prmtes increase' agricultural yiel'sCarter et al# 1$, Dr. Craig D. Idso is founder and chairman of the Centerfor the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Since 1998, he has beenthe editor and chief contributor to the online magazine C! Science. "e isthe author of se#eral boo$s, including %he &any 'ene(ts of )tmos*heric C!+nrichment !-11 and C! , Global /arming and Coral 0eefs !--9. "eearned a h.D. in geogra*hy from )rizona State 2ni#ersity )S2,=Climate Change 0econsidered II 'iological Im*acts>,

htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,@?@1?!-1A Ber3in %he #igor of +arth5s terrestrial bios*here has been increasing 3ith time, re#ealing a great *ostindustrial

re#olution greening of the +arth that extends across the entire globe. Over t"e past )0 yearsgl&al car&n uptake "as 'u&le'from !.A H -.8 billion tons in 19- to .- H -.9 billiontons in !-1-. T"e atmsp"ere5s rising CO2 cntent, 3hich ICC considers to be thechief cul*rit behind all of its =reasons for concern> about the future of the bios*here, is mst likelyt"e primary cause , t"e &serve' greening tren'# %he obser#ed greening ofthe +arth has occurred in s*ite of all the many real and imagined assaults on +arth5s #egetation, including

(res, disease, *est outbrea$s, air *ollution, deforestation, and climatic change. %ising levels ,atmsp"eric CO2 are making t"e &isp"ere mre resilient t stresseven as it &ecmes mre lus" an' pr'uctive# / Agriculturalpr'uctivity in t"e 9nite' States an' acrss t"e gl&e 'ramatically

increase'o#er the last three decades of the t3entieth century, a *henomenon *artly due to ne3culti#ation techniEues but also 'ue partly t !armer temperatures an' "ig"erCO2 levels# / A ,uture !arming , t"e climate cuple' !it" risingatmsp"eric CO2 levels !ill ,urt"er &st gl&al agriculturalpr'uctin an' "elp t meet t"e ,' nee's , t"e planet5s gr!ingppulatin# / T"e psitive 'irect eects , CO2 n ,uture crp yiel'sare likely t 'minate any "ypt"etical negative eects assciate'!it" c"anging !eat"er cn'itins,


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t3enty7(rst centuries. / :lants "ave a 'emnstrate' a&ility t a';ust t"eirp"ysilgy t accmm'ate a !arming , &t" t"e magnitu'e an'rate,rise typically pre'icte' &y climate m'els( s"ul' suc" a!arming actually ccur# +#idence continues to accumulate for substantial heritable #ariationof ecologically im*ortant *lant traits, including root allocation, drought tolerance, and nutrient *lasticity,3hich suggests ra*id e#olution is li$ely to occur based on e*igenetic #ariation alone. %he ongoing rise inthe air5s C! content 3ill exert signi(cant selection *ressure on *lants, 3hich can be ex*ected to im*ro#etheir *erformance in the face of #arious en#ironmental stressors #ia the *rocess of micro7e#olution. )sgood as things currently are for 3orld agriculture, natural selection and bioengineering could bring about

additional bene(cial eFects. :or exam*le, "ig"ly CO2respnsive gentypes , a!i'e variety , plants cul' &e selecte' t take a'vantage , t"eirgenetic a&ility t ptimi7e t"eir gr!t" in respnse t pr;ecte',uture increases in t"e air5s CO2 cntent#


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2NC vervie!

4' s"rtages cause e-tinctin

1< it e-acer&ates any current et"nic an' religius tensins

2< statistically likely mst !ars since t"e .0s "ave &eenstarte' ver ,'

3


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2NC C02 Ag

CO2 &sts plant gr!t" accelerates natural selectinCarter et al# 1$, Dr. Craig D. Idso is founder and chairman of the Center

for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Since 1998, he has beenthe editor and chief contributor to the online magazine C! Science. "e isthe author of se#eral boo$s, including %he &any 'ene(ts of )tmos*heric C!+nrichment !-11 and C! , Global /arming and Coral 0eefs !--9. "eearned a h.D. in geogra*hy from )rizona State 2ni#ersity )S2, 3here helectured in meteorology and 3as a faculty researcher in the 4ce ofClimatology. Dr. Sher3ood '. Idso is *resident of the Center for the Study ofCarbon Dioxide and Global Change. re#iously he 3as a 0esearch hysicist3ith the 2.S. De*artment of )griculture5s )gricultural 0esearch Ser#ice at the2.S. /ater Conser#ation 6aboratory in hoenix, )rizona =Climate Change0econsidered II 'iological Im*acts>,htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,

@?@1?!-1A Ber3inCar&n 'i-i'e is t"e &asis , nearly all li,e n 8art"# It is t"eprimary ra! material utili7e' &y mst plants t pr'uce t"e rganicmatter ,rm !"ic" t"ey cnstruct t"eir tissues# Nt surprisingly(t"usan's , la&ratry an' el' e-periments cn'ucte' ver t"epast 200 years 'emnstrate t"at plant pr'uctivity an' gr!t" &t"rise as t"e CO2 cncentratin , t"e air increases# )s early as 18-A, deSaussure sho3ed that *eas ex*osed to high C! concentrations gre3 better than control *lants in ambientair and 3or$ conducted in the early 19--s signi(cantly increased the number of s*ecies in 3hich agro3th7enhancing eFect of atmos*heric C! enrichment 3as obser#ed to occur Demoussy, 19-!719-ACummings and Jones, 1918. 'y the time a grou* of scientists con#ened at Du$e 2ni#ersity in 19 for a3or$sho* on )ntici*ated lant 0es*onses to Global Carbon Dioxide +nrichment, an annotated bibliogra*hyof 9- scienti(c studies dealing 3ith C! eFects on #egetation had been *re*ared Strain, 198. %his

body of research demonstrated increase' levels , atmsp"eric CO2 generally

pr'uce increases in plant p"tsynt"esis( 'ecreases in plant !aterlss &y transpiratin( increases in lea, area( an' increases in plant&ranc" an' ,ruit num&ers, to name but a fe3 of the most commonly re*orted bene(ts. :i#eyears later, at the International Conference on 0ising )tmos*heric Carbon Dioxide and lant roducti#ity, it

3as concluded a 'u&ling , t"e air5s CO2 cncentratin likely !ul' lea't a )0= increase in p"tsynt"esisin C@ *lants, a 'u&ling , !ater usee>ciencyin both C@ and CA *lants, signi(cant increases in biological nitrogen (xation in almost allbiological systems, an' an increase in t"e a&ility , plants t a'apt t avariety , envirnmental stresses6emon, 198@. In the years since, many other studiesha#e been conducted on hundreds of diFerent *lant s*ecies, re*eatedly con(rming the gro3th7enhancing,3ater7sa#ing, and stressalle#iating ad#antages that ele#ated atmos*heric C! concentrations besto3u*on +arth5s *lants and soils Idso and Singer, !--9 Idso and Idso, !-11. Cha*ter 1 focuses on basic*lant *roducti#ity res*onses to ele#ated C! and includes in t3o a**endices tabular *resentations of more

than ,-- indi#idual *lant *hotosynthetic and biomass res*onses to C!7enriched air, (nding nearly all*lants ex*erience increases in these t3o *arameters at higher le#els of C!. Cha*ter 1 also examines theeFect of ele#ated C! on ecosystems including forests, grasslands, *eatlands, 3etlands, and soils. %his

re#ie3 of the literature re#eals elevate' CO2 imprves t"e pr'uctivity ,ecsystems &t" in plant tissues a&vegrun' an' in t"e sils&eneat" t"em#%he $ey (ndings of Cha*ter 1 are *resented in :igure A. !. Im*act on lantCharacteristics %here are t3o *rinci*al methods researchers utilize to ascertain ho3 +arth5s terrestrial*lants 3ill be aFected by a continuation of the historical rise in the atmos*here5s C! concentration. ne3ay is to gro3 *lants in C!7enriched air to le#els ex*ected to be ex*erienced in the decades andcenturies to come. In the case of long7li#ed trees, gro3th o#er *rior decades and centuries as the C!concentration has risen can be deri#ed from studying the yearly gro3th rings *roduced o#er those time


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*eriods and that no3 com*rise the li#ing or dead trees5 trun$s. %he *rimary information sought in thesestudies are rates of *hotosynthesis and biomass *roduction and the e4ciency 3ith 3hich the #arious*lants and trees utilize 3ater. %here are a host of other eFects of signi(cance, including substances*roduced in the gro3th *rocess that im*act ho3 3ell it *roceeds, substances de*osited in the *arts ofagricultural cro*s that are har#ested for human and animal consum*tion, and substances that determine3hether insect *ests (nd the foliage or fruit of a certain cro* or tree to be to their li$ing. :inally, there isthe Euestion of 3hether forest soils 3ill ha#e su4cient nitrogen to sustain the long7term C!7enhancedgro3th rates of long7li#ed trees. Cha*ter ! examines these and other eFects of atmos*heric C!

enrichment on *lant characteristics. +xtensi#e research (nds those eFects are o#er3helmingly *ositi#e.:or exam*le, rising CO2 levels prmte plant gr!t" &y increasing t"ecncentratins , plant "rmnes t"at stimulate cell 'ivisin( cellelngatin( an' prtein synt"esis? &y ena&ling plants t pr'ucemre an' larger @!ers? &y increasing t"e pr'uctin , glmalin(an imprtant prtein create' &y ,ungi living in sym&itic assciatin!it" t"e rts , mst vascular plants? an' &y aecting lea,c"aracteristics , agricultural plants t"at lea' t "ig"er rates an'e>ciencies , p"tsynt"esis an' gr!t" as !ell as increase'resistance t "er&ivry an' pat"gen attack# %he $ey (ndings of Cha*ter ! are*resented in :igure . @. Im*act on lants 2nder Stress )ccording to ICC, a 3armer future 3ill introducene3 sources of stress on the biological 3orld, including increases in forest (res, droughts, and extremeheat e#ents. ICC fails to as$ 3hether the higher le#els of atmos*heric C! its models also *redict 3ill aid

or hinder the ability of *lants to co*e 3ith these challenges. "ad it loo$ed, ICC 3ould ha#e disco#eredan e-tensive &'y , researc" s"!ing "! atmsp"eric CO2enric"ment amelirates t"e negative eects , a num&er ,envirnmental plant stresses# %he relati#e *ercentage gro3th enhancement *roduced byan increase in the air5s C! concentration is generally greater under stressful and resource7limitedconditions than 3hen gro3ing conditions are ideal. %he im*act of rising atmos*heric C! on *lants understress is the sub


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Climatology. Dr. Sher3ood '. Idso is *resident of the Center for the Study ofCarbon Dioxide and Global Change. re#iously he 3as a 0esearch hysicist3ith the 2.S. De*artment of )griculture5s )gricultural 0esearch Ser#ice at the2.S. /ater Conser#ation 6aboratory in hoenix, )rizona =Climate Change0econsidered II 'iological Im*acts>,htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,

@?@1?!-1A Ber3in/ Atmsp"eric CO2 enric"menthenceforth referred to as =rising C!>en"ances plant gr!t"( 'evelpment( an' ultimate yiel' in t"e case, agricultural crps< &y increasing t"e cncentratins , plant"rmnes t"at stimulate cell 'ivisin( cell elngatin( an' prteinsynt"esis# / %ising CO2 ena&les plants t pr'uce mre and largerKo3ers, as 3ell as other Ko3er7related changes ha#ing signi(cantim*lications for *lant *roducti#ity and sur#i#al, almost all of 3hich are*ositi#e. / %ising CO2 increases the *roduction of glmalin, a prteincreated by fungi living in sym&itic assciatin !it" t"e rts , *0percent , the *lanet5s #ascular plants( !"ere it is "aving a "ugepsitive impact n t"e &isp"ere# %ising CO2 likely !illaFect many

leaf characteristics of agricultural *lants, 3ith the maciencies , p"tsynt"esis an' gr!t"as !ell as increase' resistance t "er&ivry an' pat"gen attack# /%ising CO2 stimulates p"tsynt"esis in nearly all plants, enablingthem to *roduce more nonstructural carbohydrates that can be used tocreate im*ortant carbon7based secondary com*ounds, one of 3hich is lignin. 0ising C! leads to enhanced *lant (tness, Ko3er *ollination, and nectar*roduction, leading to increases in fruit, grain, and #egetable yields ofagricultural cro*s as 3ell as *roducti#ity increases in natural #egetation # / Asrising CO2 causes many plants t increase &imass( t"e larger plantslikely !ill 'evelp mre e-tensive rt systems ena&ling t"em te-tract greater amunts , mineral nutrients ,rm t"e sil# 0isingC! causes *lants to seEuentially reduce the o*enness of their stomata, thusrestricting unnecessary 3ater loss #ia excessi#e trans*iration, 3hile some*lants also reduce the density number *er area of stomates on their lea#es./ %ising CO2signicantly en"ances t"e cn'ense' tannincncentratins , mst trees an' grasses( prvi'ing t"em !it"strnger 'e,enses against varius "er&ivres &t" a&ve an' &el!grun'# T"is in turn re'uces t"e amunt , met"ane( a ptentgreen"use gas, released to the atmos*here by ruminants bro3sing on treelea#es and grass. )s the air5s C! content rises, many *lant s*ecies maynot ex*erience *hotosynthetic acclimation e#en under conditions of lo3 soilnitrogen. In the e#ent that a *lant cannot balance its carbohydrate sourcesand sin$s, CO2in'uce' acclimatin prvi'es a !ayof achie#ing thatbalance by shifting resources a3ay from the site of *hotosynthesis ten"ance sink 'evelpmentor other im*ortant *lant *rocesses.

CO2 emissins prvi'e plants !it" ptimal cn'itins ,rgr!t"Carter et al# 1$, Dr. Craig D. Idso is founder and chairman of the Centerfor the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Since 1998, he has been


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the editor and chief contributor to the online magazine C! Science. "e isthe author of se#eral boo$s, including %he &any 'ene(ts of )tmos*heric C!+nrichment !-11 and C! , Global /arming and Coral 0eefs !--9. "eearned a h.D. in geogra*hy from )rizona State 2ni#ersity )S2, 3here helectured in meteorology and 3as a faculty researcher in the 4ce ofClimatology. Dr. Sher3ood '. Idso is *resident of the Center for the Study of

Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. re#iously he 3as a 0esearch hysicist3ith the 2.S. De*artment of )griculture5s )gricultural 0esearch Ser#ice at the2.S. /ater Conser#ation 6aboratory in hoenix, )rizona =Climate Change0econsidered II 'iological Im*acts>,htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,@?@1?!-1A Ber3in/ Atmsp"eric CO2 enric"menthenceforth referred to as =rising C!>e-erts a greater psitive in@uence n 'isease' as ppse' t"ealt"y plants &ecause it signicantly amelirates t"e negativeeects , stresses impse' n plants &y pat"genic inva'ers# /%ising CO2 "elps many plants use !ater mre e>ciently( "elpingt"em vercme stress,ul cn'itins impse' &y 'rug"t r t"er

lesst"anptimum sil misture cn'itins. +nhanced rates of *lant*hotosynthesis and biomass *roduction from rising C! 3ill not bediminished by any global 3arming that might accom*any it in the future. Infact, if ambient air tem*eratures rise concurrently, the gro3th7*romotingeFects of atmos*heric C! enrichment 3ill li$ely rise e#en more. )lthoughrising C! increases the gro3th of many 3eeds, the fraction hel*ed is not aslarge as that ex*erienced by non73eeds. %hus, C! enrichment of the airmay *ro#ide non73eeds 3ith greater *rotection against 3eed7induceddecreases in *roducti#ity. / %ising CO2 imprves plants5 a&ilities t!it"stan' t"e 'eleterius eects , "eavy metals !"ere t"ey arepresent in sils at t"er!iset-ic levels# 0ising C! reduces thefreEuency and se#erity of herbi#ory against cro*s and trees by increasing*roduction of natural substances that re*el insects, leading to the *roductionof more symmetrical lea#es that are less susce*tible to attac$s by herbi#ores,and ma$ing trees more ca*able of sur#i#ing se#ere defoliation. / %ising CO2increases net p"tsynt"esis an' &imass pr'uctin &y manyagricultural crps( grasses( an' grasslan' species even !"en silnitrgen cncentratins ten' t limit t"eir gr!t"# A''itinal CO2in'uce' car&n input t t"e sil stimulates micr&ial 'ecmpsitinan' t"us lea's t mre availa&le sil nitrgen, thereby conclusi#elydis*ro#ing the *rogressi#e nitrogen limitation hy*othesis. / %ising CO2typically re'uces an' can cmpletely verri'e t"e negative eects ,7ne pllutin n t"e p"tsynt"esis( gr!t"( an' yiel' , nearlyall agricultural crps an' treesthat ha#e been ex*erimentally e#aluated. 0ising C! can hel* *lants o#ercome stresses im*osed by the buildu* ofsoil salinity from re*eated irrigation. / T"e nging rise in t"e air5s CO2cntent is a p!er,ul anti'te ,r t"e 'eleterius &ilgical impactst"at mig"t &e cause' &y an increase in t"e @u- , 9B ra'iatin att"e sur,ace , 8art" 'ue t 'epletin , t"e planet5s stratsp"eric7ne layer#


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CO2 causes 6uick plant evlutin t"at mitigates t"eimpact( an' prmtes increase' agricultural yiel'sCarter et al# 1$, Dr. Craig D. Idso is founder and chairman of the Centerfor the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Since 1998, he has beenthe editor and chief contributor to the online magazine C! Science. "e is

the author of se#eral boo$s, including %he &any 'ene(ts of )tmos*heric C!+nrichment !-11 and C! , Global /arming and Coral 0eefs !--9. "eearned a h.D. in geogra*hy from )rizona State 2ni#ersity )S2, 3here helectured in meteorology and 3as a faculty researcher in the 4ce ofClimatology. Dr. Sher3ood '. Idso is *resident of the Center for the Study ofCarbon Dioxide and Global Change. re#iously he 3as a 0esearch hysicist3ith the 2.S. De*artment of )griculture5s )gricultural 0esearch Ser#ice at the2.S. /ater Conser#ation 6aboratory in hoenix, )rizona =Climate Change0econsidered II 'iological Im*acts>,htt*??333.ni*ccre*ort.org?re*orts?ccr!b?*df?Summary7for7olicyma$ers.*df,@?@1?!-1A Ber3in %he #igor of +arth5s terrestrial bios*here has been increasing 3ith time,

re#ealing a great *ostindustrial re#olution greening of the +arth that extendsacross the entire globe. Over t"e past )0 years gl&al car&n uptake"as 'u&le'from !.A H -.8 billion tons in 19- to .- H -.9 billion tons in!-1-. T"e atmsp"ere5s rising CO2 cntent, 3hich ICC considers to bethe chief cul*rit behind all of its =reasons for concern> about the future of thebios*here, is mst likely t"e primary cause , t"e &serve' greeningtren'# %he obser#ed greening of the +arth has occurred in s*ite of all themany real and imagined assaults on +arth5s #egetation, including (res,disease, *est outbrea$s, air *ollution, deforestation, and climatic change.%ising levels , atmsp"eric CO2 are making t"e &isp"ere mreresilient t stress even as it &ecmes mre lus" an' pr'uctive# /Agricultural pr'uctivity in t"e 9nite' States an' acrss t"e gl&e

'ramatically increase'o#er the last three decades of the t3entiethcentury, a *henomenon *artly due to ne3 culti#ation techniEues but also'ue partly t !armer temperatures an' "ig"er CO2 levels# / A ,uture!arming , t"e climate cuple' !it" rising atmsp"eric CO2 levels!ill ,urt"er &st gl&al agricultural pr'uctin an' "elp t meet t"e,' nee's , t"e planet5s gr!ing ppulatin# / T"e psitive 'irecteects , CO2 n ,uture crp yiel's are likely t 'minate any"ypt"etical negative eects assciate' !it" c"anging !eat"ercn'itins,


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"ig"ly CO2respnsive gentypes , a !i'e variety , plants cul' &eselecte' t take a'vantage , t"eir genetic a&ility t ptimi7e t"eirgr!t" in respnse t pr;ecte' ,uture increases in t"e air5s CO2cntent#

Warming is g' increases plant pr'uctivity an' s"!s

n eect n species#James DelingpleA7A71$, ex*erienced ,htt*??333.breitbart.com?'reitbart76ondon?!-1A?-A?-A?/orld7doing7


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&y "a&itat lss &ut nt &y climate c"ange t !"ic" t"ey aremorethan capa&le , a'apting. olar bears ha#e sur#i#ed *eriods climaticchange considerably more extreme than the ones currently beingex*erienced# utter@ies( insects( reptiles an' mammals ten' n&alance t prli,erate rat"er t"an &e "arme' &y climate c"ange.P)Euatic 6ife &ulti*le stu'ies ,rm multiple ceanic regins cnrm t"atpr'uctivity7 from *hyto*lan$ton and microalgae to corals, crustaceansand (sh 7 ten's t increase !it" temperature. Some ex*erts *redictcral calcicatin !ill increaseby about @ *er cent beyond *re7industrialle#els by !1--, 3ith no extinction of coral reefs. a&ratry stu'iespre'ictinglo3er " le#els 7 Pcean aci'icatin ,ail t capture t"ecmple-ities , t"e real !rl' an' ,ten cntra'ict &servatins innature. "uman "ealth /armer tem*eratures result in fe3er deathsassociated 3ith cardio#ascular disease, res*iratory illness and stro$es. In the2S a *erson 3ho dies of cold loses on a#erage in excess of ten years of life,3hereas someone 3ho dies from heat loses li$ely no more than a fe3 days or3ee$s of life. 'et3een @ and *er cent of the gains in longe#ity in the 2S inthe last three decades are the result of *eo*le mo#ing to 3armer states.

%here is a large body of e#idence to suggest that the sprea' , malaria !illNOT increase as a result , gl&al !arming. %ising CO2 is increasingt"e nutritinal value , ,' !it" cnse6uent "ealt" &enets ,r"umans.

Warming is g' several reasns&att %i'ley1-719713, ex*erienced 'ritish ,htt*??333.s*ectator.co.u$?features?9-11?carry7on73arming?T"e c"ie, &enets , gl&al !arming inclu'eE ,e!er !inter 'eat"s?l!er energy csts? &etter agricultural yiel's *robably ,e!er'rug"ts maybe ric"er &i'iversity. It is a little7$no3n fact that 3interdeaths exceed summer deaths Q not


15/41

)s it is an extremely rare trace gas in the air Q less than -.-A *er cent of theair on a#erage Q plants struggle t a&sr& enug" , it. n a 3indless,sunny day, a (eld of corn can suc$ half the carbon dioxide out of the air.Commercial greenhouse o*erators therefore *um* carbon dioxide into theirgreenhouses to raise *lant gro3th rates. T"e increase in average car&n'i-i'e levels ver t"e past century, from -.-@ *er cent to -.-A *er cent

of the air, "as "a' a measura&le impact n plant gr!t" rates# It isrespnsi&le ,r a startling c"ange in t"e amunt , greenery n t"eplanet. )s Dr 0anga &yneni of 'oston 2ni#ersity has documented, usingthree decades of satellite data, 31 per cent , t"e gl&al vegetate' area, t"e planet "as &ecme greener an' ;ust 3 per cent "as &ecmeless green# T"is translates int a 1$ per cent increase in pr'uctivity, ecsystems an' "as &een &serve' in all vegetatin types. Dr0andall Donohue and colleagues of the CSI0 6and and /ater de*artment in)ustralia also analysed satellite data and found greening t &e clearlyattri&uta&le in *artt t"e car&n 'i-i'e ,ertilisatin eect. Greeningis es*ecially *ronounced in dry areas li$e the Sahel region of )frica, 3heresatellites sho3 a big increase in green #egetation since the 19-s. It is often

argued that global 3arming 3ill hurt the 3orld5s *oorest hardest. /hat isseldom heard is that t"e 'ecline , ,aminesin the Sahel in recent years is*artly 'ue t mre rain,all cause' &y m'erate !arming an' partly'ue t mre car&n 'i-i'e itsel,Emore greenery for goats to eat meansmore greenery left o#er for gazelles, so entire ecsystems "ave&enete'. +#en *olar bears are thri#ing so far, though this is mainlybecause of the cessation of hunting. Mone the less, it5s 3orth noting that thethree years 3ith the lo3est *olar bear cub sur#i#al in the 3estern "udson'ay 19A, 198A and 199! 3ere the years 3hen the sea ice 3as too thic$ forringed seals to a**ear in good numbers in s*ring. 'ears need bro$en ice. /ellyes, you may argue, but !"at a&ut all t"e !eat"er 'isasters cause'&y climate c"ange 8ntirely myt"icalQ so far. T"e latest I:CC reprtis admirably fran$ about this, reprting Jn signicant &serve' tren'sin gl&al trpical cyclne ,re6uency ver t"e past century K lack ,evi'ence an' t"us l! cn'ence regar'ing t"e sign , tren' in t"emagnitu'e an'Lr ,re6uency Ma's n a gl&al scale K l!cn'ence in &serve' tren's in smallscale severe !eat"erp"enmena suc" as "ail an' t"un'erstrms5# In fact, t"e 'eat" rate,rm 'rug"ts( @'s an' strms "as 'rppe'by 98 *er cent since the19!-s, according to a careful study by the inde*endent scholar IndurGo$lany. Mot because 3eather has become less dangerous but because*eo*le ha#e gained better *rotection as they got richer 3itness theremar$able success of cyclone 3arnings in India last 3ee$. T"at5s t"e t"inga&ut climate c"ange !e !ill pr&a&ly pcket t"e &enets an'mitigate at least sme , t"e "arm &y a'apting. :or exam*le, ex*ertsno3 agree that malaria !ill cntinue its rapi' !rl'!i'e 'ecline!"atever t"e climate 'es#Net cherry7*ic$ing the bad ne3s remains rife.) remar$able exam*le of this 3as the ICC5s last re*ort in !--, 3hich saidthat global 3arming 3ould cause Rhundreds of millions of *eo*le to beTex*osed to increased 3ater stress5 under four diFerent scenarios of future3arming. It cited a study, 3hich had also counted numbers of *eo*le atreduced ris$ of 3ater stress Q and in each case that number 3as higher. T"e


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I:CC simply mitte' t"e psitive num&ers#/hy does this matter; 8veni, climate c"ange 'es pr'uce slig"tly mre !el,are ,r t"e ne-t 0years( !"y take t"e risk t"at it !ill ' great "arm t"erea,ter T"ereis ne &vius reasnE climate plicy is alrea'y 'ing "arm#uil'ing!in' tur&ines( gr!ing &i,uels an' su&stituting !' ,r cal inp!er statins all plicies 'esigne' e-plicitly t g"t climate

c"ange "ave "a' negligi&le eects n car&n 'i-i'e emissins.ut t"ey "ave 'riven peple int ,uel pverty( ma'e in'ustriesuncmpetitive( 'riven up ,' prices( accelerate' t"e 'estructin ,,rests( kille' rare &ir's , prey( an' 'ivi'e' cmmunities. %o name

,htt*??333.forbes.com?sites?


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sorghum, soybeans, sugarbeets, sunKo3ers, and 3heat. Gl&al crp yiel's"ave als registere' spectacular gr!t" as gl&al temperatures"ave !arme'# Global grain har#ests ha#e nearly tri*led since 191. )s isthe case in the 2.S., nearly every imprtant gl&al crp "as attaine'recr' pr'uctivity 'uring t"e past ve years, including the 'ig %hreecorn, rice, and 3heat cro*s. Indeed, 3hile the media claim global 3arming is

threatening our morning coFee, farmers are *re*aring to har#est a recordglobal coFee cro*. /hile the media claim global 3arming is the article noted. ) January !-- study in the *eer7re#ie3ed science W"ile alarmists cry a&ut gl&al !arming an'crp 'evastatin( cnsumers in t"e real !rl' "ave never "a' suc"an a&un'ance , plenty#

Warming prevents 'rug"t an' ,amine'en Gaul1!71A713, ex*erienced


18/41

mre pr'uctive, Greenlan' !ul' &ecme green again( gr!ingseasns !ul' last lnger an' availa&le irrigatin !ul' increase. )ll,3hile the beaches around the 3orld remained *retty much 3here they are.Con#ersely, i, gl&al average temperatures !ere t 'ecreasesignicantly( t"ere !ul' &e ,ar less , all t"se !n'er,ul &enets.)lmost every ma;r 'rug"t an' ,amine in "istry "as &eenaccmpanie' &y severe !inters( nt summers. :rlnge' cl' is!"at 'estrys agriculture( in'uces ,amine an' "alts scietalevlutin. In recorded history, every time mankin' e-perience gl&al!arming it "as spurre' e-plratin( ppulatin gr!t"( larger mrepr'uctive cmmunitiesand in some cases, allo3ed great Cathedrals and&egalithic &onuments to be built. T"e &etter crp yiel's an' a''itinal"arvests ,ree' up manp!er. )rtisans and craftsmen cannot *roduce ifthey are too busy trying to feed themsel#es. /hen global 3arming hasha**ened, the bene(ts to man$ind can still be seen standing at *laces li$eMotre Dame and the Giza *lateau.

T"e prspect , ,' insecurity alne causes cn@ict&ichael %. QlareA7!!713, )uthor and rofessor of eace and /orld7SecurityStudies, "am*shire College, "u4ngton ost,htt*??333.hu4ngton*ost.com?michael7t7$lare?resource7scarcity7climate7changeYbY@1@!!8.htmlStart 3ith one sim*le gi#en t"e prspect , ,uture scarcities , vitalnatural resurces, inclu'ingenergy, 3ater, land, ,', and criticalminerals. %his in itsel, !ul' guarantee scial unrest( geplitical,rictin( an' !ar. It is im*ortant to note that a&slute scarcity 'esn5t"ave t &e n t"e "ri7n in any given resurce categry ,r t"isscenari t kick in# A lack , a'e6uate supplies t meet t"e nee's ,a gr!ing( ever mre ur&ani7e' an' in'ustriali7e' gl&al ppulatinis enug". Gi#en the 3a#e of extinctions that scientists are recording, someresurces77 *articular s*ecies of (sh, animals, and trees, for exam*le 77 !ill&ecme less a&un'antin the decades to come, and may e#en disa**earaltogether. 'ut key materials ,r m'ern civili7atinli$e oil, uranium,and co**er !ill simply prve "ar'er an' mre cstly t ac6uire,leading to su**ly bottlenec$s and *eriodic shortages. il 77 the single mostim*ortant commodity in the international economy 77 *ro#ides an a*texam*le. )lthough global oil su**lies may actually gro3 in the comingdecades, many ex*erts doubt that they can be ex*anded su4ciently to meetthe needs of a rising global middle class that is, for instance, ex*ected to buymillions of ne3 cars in the near future. In its !-11 /orld +nergy utloo$, the

International +nergy )gency claimed that an antici*ated global oil demand of1-A million barrels *er day in !-@ 3ill be satis(ed. %his, the re*ortsuggested, 3ould be than$s in large *art to additional su**lies of=uncon#entional oil> Canadian tar sands, shale oil, and so on, as 3ell as million barrels of ne3 oil from (elds =yet to be found> and =yet to bede#elo*ed.> "o3e#er, many analysts scoF at this o*timistic assessment,arguing that rising *roduction costs for energy that 3ill be e#er more di4cultand costly to extract, en#ironmental o**osition, 3arfare, corru*tion, andother im*ediments 3ill ma$e it extremely di4cult to achie#e increases of this


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magnitude. In other 3ords, e#en if *roduction manages for a time to to* the!-1- le#el of 8 million barrels *er day, the goal of 1-A million barrels 3illne#er be reached and the 3orld5s ma


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ATE In'icts

Carter is plenty 6ualie' private ,un'ing 'esn5t mean"e s"ul' &e re;ecte'

Sy'ney Rrning Heral'( 12=6etters Climate Change>, Sydney&orning "erald )ustralia, !?1?1!,htt*??333.lexisnexis.com.ez*1.lib.umn.edu?lnacui!a*i?results?doc#ie3?doc#ie3.do;doc6in$IndZtrueWrisbZ!1Y%1A99A999WformatZGM':IWsortZ'6+)MWstartDocMoZ1Wresults2rlBeyZ

!9Y%1A99A8-@WcisbZ!!Y%1A99A8-!Wtree&axZtrueWtree/idthZ-WcsiZ@1A!@WdocMoZ!, ??J6:rivate ,un'ing , researc" nee' nt e6ual &iasSo :r,essr &Carter receives sme private ,un'ing ,rm peple !" like "is !rkan' t"is is suppse' t cmpletely cmprmise "is scientic&;ectivityPScientist denies he is mouth*iece of 2S climate7sce*tic thin$tan$P, :ebruary 1; T"is argument seems t imply t"at !e s"ul' nlylisten t aca'emics t"at are 100 per cent gvernment ,un'e'# It alsimplies t"at gvernment ,un'ing never "as any i'elgical strings

attac"e'. It is a very cnvenient argument ,r me'icre aca'emicst"at struggle t attract private ,un'ingof any $ind. I call it Source /atchdisease, it is a *articularly modern ailment. rofessor 'ob CarterLs analogythat his monthly retainer from a 3ealthy 2S7based climate sce*tic thin$7tan$is a$in to the fees *aid to architects for their ser#ices is a good one.)rchitects usually recei#e a brief from their client and *roduce something theclient 3ants. Guy %homson /est 0yde )s to 3hether rofessor 'ob Carter isindeed inKuenced in his #ie3s on global 3arming by the money he recei#esfrom the "eartland Institute, I 3ill not comment. I 3ill lea#e that u* to themany fearless crusaders for truth to *ursue this matter 3ith all the #igourthey did the climategate emails in !--9. I 3ill say, ho3e#er, that i, I !ere:r,essr Carter( a traine' gelgist( I !ul' &e rat"er mie' t"atAnt"ny Watts( a ,rmer TB !eat"erman an' &lgger( !as pai' mre&y a mutual patrn t"an I !as( an' !ul' 'eman' a raise ,rt"!it" ."ugh Sturgess 'almain I 3as shoc$ed to learn that the climate changecontrarian rofessor 'ob Carter 3as not being *aid by the tax*ayer. &ostscientists 3or$ing on climate7change7related matters in this country areem*loyed by uni#ersities, the CSI0 or the 'ureau of &eteorology. &ostcontrarian scientists ha#e to *ro#ide their o3n funding. One scientiststate' t"at t get ,un'ing ,r pr;ects !"ic" 'i' nt appear tsupprt t"e cnventinal psitin n gl&al !arming !as liketrying t get ,un'ing ,rm t"e C"inese gvernment t 'e,en'nesel, against c"arges &rug"t &y t"e gvernment. +#an rofessorCarter is described as a geologist and marine researcher. %his does not ma$ehim a climatologist any more than 6ord /hatsisname 3ho too$ a short classin climate 3hile doing a 'ertie /ooster7ty*e classics degree. Can 3e ignorethese tin$lers and remember that all Euali(ed climatologists agree thatclimate change is a ma


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I's is 'enitely 6ualie' an' peerrevie!e'Hackney( .7 6a3 Cler$ to 2nited States District Judge Sim 6a$e for theSouthern District of %exas. J.D., 2ni#ersity of %exas School of 6a3, !--9 ).'.and ).&., "ar#ard 2ni#ersity, 199 0yan, = :li**ing Daubert utting ClimateChange Defendants in the "ot Seat,> 6e3is W Clar$ 6a3 School5s

+n#ironmental 6a3 nline, !--9,htt*??333.ela3re#ie3.org?ela3?A-1?Ki**ingYdaubertY*uttingYclima.html, ??J6Sher3ood Idso 3ould ma$e a good test case of such an ex*ert. I's( !""as serve' as a researc" p"ysicist !it" t"e 9#S# Department ,Agriculture an' as an a';unct pr,essr in Gelgy an' tany atAri7na State 9niversity( is t"e presi'ent , t"e Center ,r t"e Stu'y, Car&n Di-i'e an' Gl&al C"ange( an rgani7atin t"at prmtest"e vie! t"at "eig"tene' CO2 levels are a g' t"ing &ecause ,t"eir &enecial eects n plant gr!t".1A@T Idso has energy industryconnections %he Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Changehas been re*orted to ha#e recei#ed funding from +xxon&obil,1AAT and in1991 Idso *roduced a #ideo extolling the agricultural bene(ts of heightened

C! for the /estern :uels )ssociation, a coal industry association.1ATW"ile I's5s cnnectins t energy interests "ave le' sme t6uestin "is !rk as &iase'(1$+ "is researc" n t"e eects , CO2n plant gr!t" "as &een pu&lis"e' several times in peerrevie!e'

;urnals #His researc" n t"e eects , "eig"tene' CO2 in &stinggr!t" in el'arica pine treesinus eldarica, for exam*le, !aspu&lis"e' in t"e Uurnal , 8-perimental tany( an O-,r'9niversity :ress pu&licatin.1AT He pu&lis"e' peerrevie!e'papers in 2001 an' 200$ n t"e lngterm eects , CO2 n gr!t", sur range trees.1A8T Since Idso is a *ublished scientist 3ho has*ublicly *romoted the bene(ts of C! and has sho3n a 3illingness to acce*tmoney from energy com*anies, it is nt unt"inka&le t"at climate

c"ange 'e,en'ants cul' turn t "im ,r e-pert testimny a&ut "isresearc". 'ut 3ould he be allo3ed to testify; It is li$ely that I's !ul'pass aDaubert relia&ility c"allenge. :irst, t"ere is little 6uestin t"atI's !ul' 6uali,y as an e-pert in sme aspects , climate c"angeEHe is a pu&lis"e' scientist !" "as !rke' specically !it" t"e&ilgical eects , "eig"tene' CO2.1A9T I's5s acceptance ,energy cmpany mney is irrelevant t t"is 6uestin, as no *art of0ule -! or Daubert suggests that cor*orate funding diminishes an ex*ert5sEuali(cations or the reliability of his or her 3or$.1-T /hile some mightargue that this is a blind s*ot in Daubert,11T it 3ould *robably beunreasonable to institute a rule that *rohibits scientists from testifying onbehalf of their em*loyees or s*onsors. %he Committee Motes to the 0ule -!

amendments do allo3 1!T %his analysis 3ouldli$ely 3eigh in fa#or of admitting I's5s testimony, since he &eganresearc"ing t"e eects , CO2 n plants years prir t any climatec"ange litigatin# An' even i, I's is a pai' s"ill , t"e energyin'ustry in sme aspects , "is career( "e "as als pu&lis"e' severalpapers in in'epen'ent( peerrevie!e' ;urnals. %o the extent that


22/41

Idso5s testimony is based on the results of his *eer7re#ie3ed studies andother similar *ublications, it 3ould be di4cult to challenge his testimony onthe Daubert (#e7factor reliability test. %estability can be established becauset"e pu&licatins 'escri&e t"e tests t"at I's cn'ucte' t a'vance"is t"eries.1@T T"e ,act t"at t"e papers !ere accepte' ,rpu&licatin in respecte' ;urnals suggests t"at t"e met"'lgies ,

t"e tests invlve'inclu'ing errr rate an' cntrl stan'ar's!eresu>ciently rigrus t"at t"er scientists !ul' accept t"em asrelia&le ,r pu&licatin# W"ile all , I's5s cnclusins may nt &e!i'esprea' in t"e scientic cmmunity( it is generally accepte'amng eclgists t"at "eig"tene' CO2 can prmte plant gr!t".1AT If Idso5s testimony stic$s to the information contained in his *eer7re#ie3ed *ublications, a Daubert challenge to his reliability 3ould *robablyfail.

Singer is Vualie'Rilly( *7 &aster of "ealth Sciences in 'iostatistics from the Johns"o*$ins 2ni#ersity School of "ygiene and ublic "ealth, a Juris Doctor fromthe 2ni#ersity of 'altimore, and a &aster of 6a3s from the Georgeto3n2ni#ersity 6a3 Center Ste*hen, = Jun$ Science Global Smearing,> :ox Me3s,@?!?8, htt*??333.foxne3s.com?story?-,!9@@,@A!!,--.html, ??J6y any stan'ar'( atmsp"eric p"ysicist Dr# S# 4re' Singer is aremarka&ly accmplis"e' scientist. 'ut his outs*o$en Euestioning ofglobal 3arming alarmism has


23/41

achie#ements last year 3hile reading PS*utni$ %he Shoc$ of the CenturyP/al$er W Com*any, !--, 3hich chronicles the de#elo*ment of the 2.S.S*ace rogram. T"e &k 'escri&e' Singer( alng !it" Ban Allen( as apineer , space science.P %he author also 3rote, P)merica5s


24/41

t"e ,acts( t"ey5ll instea' try t 'estry anyne !" 'ares mentint"em.

Heartlan' Institute receives su&stantially less ,un'ingt"an !arming alarmists an' t"e reverse Climategateissue !as ,a&ricate' &y !arming alarmists4errara( 12 7 &.). in la3 from "ar#ard 2ni#ersity, former *rofessor atGeorge &ason 2ni#ersity School of 6a3, *ublished 3or$ in Mational 0e#ie3,

%he /ashington %imes, %he )merican S*ectator eter, =:a$egate %hebnoxious :abrication of Global /arming,> :orbes, @?1?1!,htt*??333.forbes.com?sites?*eterferrara?!-1!?-@?-1?fa$egate7the7obnoxious7fabrication7of7global7

3arming???J6)bout e#ery four years, the 2nited Mation5s Intergo#ernmental anel on Climate Change ICC *roduces a#oluminous )ssessment 0e*ort )0 on the state of global 3arming science, such as it is. %3o years aftereach )0, the ICC *roduces an u*dating Interim 0e*ort. In !--8, %he "eartland Institute, headEuartered inChicago, began organizing international conferences of scientists from across the globe 3ho 3ant to raiseand discuss intellectually troubling Euestions and doubts regarding the theory that human acti#ity iscausing ultimately catastro*hic global 3arming. Six conferences ha#e ta$en *lace to date, attracting more

than @,--- scientists,


25/41

:resi'ent O&ama5s &u'get cmmits ,r researc" int Xt"e gl&alc"anges t"at "ave resulte' primarily ,rm gl&al ver'epen'encen ,ssil ,uels#Y T"at 'emnstrates "! an unce , trut" canvercme a ti'al !ave , ,alse"'. &aybe that is 3hy Gleic$ or one of hiscocons*irators felt com*elled to go farther and com*osed a fa$e memo titled =Con(dential &emo !-1!"eartland Climate Strategy.> /hoe#er did it understood that a document com*osed on his com*uter anddistributed online 3ould contain mar$ings demonstrating its source and con(rming the forgery, so they*rinted it out and scanned it to hide its digital trail. %he scanned document itself, ho3e#er, containede#idence that allo3ed e#en amateur sleuths to trace it bac$ to the aci(c Institute5s o4ces, as ex*lainedin an article by &egan &cCardle, a senior editor for %he )tlantic. &cCardle, incidentally, is highly

sym*athetic to global 3arming alarmism. T"e ,rge' cver mem, not the actual stolendocument, contains language mirroring Climategate. It 'iscusse' ,a&ricate' pr;ectst"at are nt activities , Heartlan'( an' re,erences a 200(000 Qc"4un'atin cntri&utin ,r climate c"ange activities t"at 'esn5te-ist# T"e Qc" 4un'atin cnrms t"at it gave Heartlan' nly2)(000in !-11, earmarke' ,r "ealt" care plicy pr;ects an' ntclimate c"ange, an amount eEual to only -.[ of "eartland5s !-11 budget. 'y contrast, as the

Journal also obser#ed, t"e &u'get last year ,r t"e Natural %esurcesDe,ense Cuncil !as .)#$ millin( an' ,r t"e Wrl' Wil'li,e 4un'

23*#) millin.


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A44 An!ers CO2 Ag


27/41

C2 a'

CO2 is net &a' ,r plants T muc" , a g' t"ing can &ea &a' t"ing mst recent an' 6ualie' evi'ence

Skpetical Science 1$(maintained by John Coo$, the ClimateCommunication :ello3 for the Global Change Institute at the 2ni#ersity of\ueensland, ?@?1A, S$e*tical Science, C! is *lant foodhtt*??333.s$e*ticalscience.com?co!7*lant7food.htm ]]0SClimate Ryt"###^CO2 is plant ,'^+arthLs current atmos*heric C! concentration isalmost @9- *arts *er million **m. )dding another @-- **m of C! to the air has been sho3n by literallythousands of ex*eriments to greatly increase the gro3th or biomass *roduction of nearly all *lants. %hisgro3th stimulation occurs because C! is one of the t3o ra3 materials the other being 3ater that arereEuired for *hotosynthesis. "ence, C! is actually the PfoodP that sustains essentially all *lants on theface of the earth, as 3ell as those in the sea. )nd the more C! they PeatP absorb from the air or 3ater,the bigger and better they gro3. source lants Meed C!^)n argument made by those 3ho *refer to seea bright side to climate change is that carbon dioxide C! being released by the burning of fossil fuels isactually good for the en#ironment. %his con


28/41

availa&ility , t"er nutrients. %hese long term *ro


29/41

Warming a' General htt*??*a$


30/41

t"ese elements. %hese conditions determine the carrying ca*acity of thebios*here to *roduce enough food for the human *o*ulation anddomesticated animals. %he o#erall eFect of climate change on agriculture 3illde*end on the balance of these eFects. )ssessment of the eFects of globalclimate changes on agriculture might hel* to *ro*erly antici*ate and ada*tfarming to maximize agricultural *roduction. Des*ite technological ad#ances,

such as im*ro#ed #arieties, genetically modi(ed organisms, and irrigationsystems, !eat"er is still a key ,actr in agricultural pr'uctivity, as3ell as soil *ro*erties and natural communities. %he eFect of climate onagriculture is related to #ariabilities in local climates rather than in globalclimate *atterns. %he +arth5s a#erage surface tem*erature has increased byone degree :ahrenheit in


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0esearch, Chinese )cademy of Sciences C)S, Nantai, China W rofessor %he Graduate 2ni#ersity ofChinese )cademy of Sciences C)S, 'ei Journal of)gronomy and Cro* Science, Ool. 198, Iss. @, /iley 6ibrary, D) ?!?!-1!

O!ing t green"use eect( gl&al sur,ace temperature is pre'icte't cntinue t increase in t"e ,utureICC, !--. 8levate'temperature suppresses plant gr!t" an' re'uces crp yiel'( !"ic"can aggravate t"e ,' crisis in t"e !rl'( particularly inthe'evelping cuntries'attisti and Maylor !--9, rasad et al. !-11.:"tsynt"esis is "ig"ly sensitive t "ig" temperature( an' :SII iscnsi'ere' as t"e mst "eatsensitive cmpnent , t"ep"tsynt"etic apparatus'erry and '


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century# Temperature an' precipitatin patterns acrss t"e 9nitedStates ,r t"e ne-t 30 yr s"! a !arming tren' , 1#) t 2[C an' aslig"t increase in precipitatin ver mst , t"e cuntrye.g., %ebaldiet al., !-- Barl et al., !--9. T"ey pr;ecte' an increase in t"e num&er, 'ays !"en t"e temperature !ill &e "ig"er t"anthe climaticnrmals &y )[Cheat73a#es, !"ic" !ill impact agricultural systems#T"ese aut"rsalso pr;ect an increase in !arm nig"ts( 'ene' asccurring !"en t"e minimum temperature is a&ve t"e .0t"percentile , t"e climatlgical 'istri&utin ,r t"e 'ay%ebaldi et al.,!-- Barl et al., !--9. Cuple' !it" t"ese c"anges is t"e 'ecrease ina num&er , ,rst 'ays &y 10= in t"e eastern "al, , t"e 9nited Statesan' an increase in t"e lengt" , t"e gr!ing seasn &y mre t"an 10'# Qarlet al. !--9 s"!e' t"at precipitatin events !ul' c"ange in,re6uency an' intensity !it" a pr;ecte' increase in springprecipitatin, *articularly in t"e Nrt"east an' Ri'!est 9nited States,an' a 'ecline in t"e sut"!estern 9nited States. T"e increase ine-treme temperature events( !arm nig"ts( an' mre varia&leprecipitatin !ill impact agriculture an' agricultural pr'uctin# A

tren' ,r !armer !inters !ill aect perennial crps an' !ee's( an'also e-pan' t"e ptential "a&ita&le range ,some insect an'diseasepests. )lthough there is uncertainty about the absolute magnitude of thechanges o#er the next - yr, t"ere is general agreement t"at CO2 levels!ill increase t near $)0 \ml ml]1**m, temperatures !illincrease &y 0#* t 1#0[C( an' precipitatin !ill &ecme mre varia&leas de(ned in the ICC )0A analysis ICC, !--. C"anges in temperature"ave alrea'y cause' lnger gr!ing seasns an' &egun t impactp"enlgical p"asesSch3artz et al., !-- /olfe et al., !--, iao et al.,!--8 Barl et al., !--9. An e-ample , t"e ptential , climate c"angeimpacts n agriculture is illustrate' in a recent stu'yby rtiz et al.!--8 in !"ic" t"ey assesse' t"e ptential impact n In'ia !"eat%riticum aesti#um 6. pr'uctin i, air temperature increase' 0#*[Cver t"e ne-t )0 yr# T"eir analysis s"!e' t"at as muc" as )1= ,t"e area in In'iacurrently classie' as "ig" ptential( irrigate'( l!rain,all megaenvirnment !ul' &e reclassie' t a "eatstresse'(irrigate'( s"rtseasn pr'uctin megaenvirnment# T"isareacurrently accunts ,r 1)= , t"e !rl'Fs !"eat pr'uctin an' !ul'un'erg signicant re'uctin in yiel' unless cultivars an'management practices a'apte' t t"e pr;ecte' climate regimee#g#( "ig"er levels , "eat an' !ater stress< !ere 'evelpe'#Wit"ut a'aptatin( t"e impacts n t"e pr'uctin ptential !ul''rastically alter t"e a&ility , In'ia t pr'uce a su>cient ,'supply ,r its ppulatin.

Warming increases sil !ater evapratin 'estrysplants at t"eir rt t"at 'estrys verall crp yiel' an'lea's t gl&al 'rug"tsHatel' et# al# 11Q6aboratory Director Mational 6aboratory for)griculture and the +n#ironment )mes, I)Q)MD B.J. 'oote, rofessor of)gronomy 2:loridaQ)MD '.). Bimball, 3or$er 2SD)7)0S, 2.S. )rid76and


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)gricultural 0esearch CenterQ)MD 6.". is$a, 3or$er 2SD) Cro* Systemsand Global Change 6abQ)MD 0. C. Izaurralde, rofessor Joint GlobalChange 0esearch Institute, aci(c Morth3est Mational 6ab 2&arylandQ)MD D. rt, 2SD)?)0S, hotosynthesis 0esearch 2nit and rofessor 2IllinoisQ)MD ).&. %homson, Joint Global Change 0esearch Institute, aci(cMorth3est Mational 6ab. 2&arylandQ)MD D. /olfe, rofessor of

"orticulture Cornell 2ni#ersity J.6, =Climate Im*acts on )gricultureIm*lications for Cro* roduction,> )gronomy Journal, Ool. 1-@, Iss. !, &arch!$11, )merican Society of )gronomy, D) ?!?!-1!:r;ecte' increases in temperatures ,r t"e entire 9nited States !illincrease sil !ater evapratin an' crp transpiratin# T"is cul'lea' t an increase in sil !ater 'ecits an' ecnmic lssesunlessmitigated by other factors, such as a corres*onding increase in *reci*itationan increase in cro* /2+ associated 3ith C! eFects on stomatal closure,see discussion belo3 reductions in leaf area or *lanting density and farmerada*tations, for exam*le, increasing use of su**lemental irrigation. A recentclimate analysis ,r t"e nrt"eastern 9nited States "ayhoe et al., !--pr;ecte' a signicant increase in summer sil !ater 'ecits &y mi'

century even ,r t"is relatively "umi' regin !it" little c"ange inttal annual precipitatin# In t"e !estern 9nited States, re'uctin insn! pack an' earlier sn! melt e-acer&ate t"e ptential t"reat ,'rug"t ,r ,armers &ecause , t"e re'uctin in t"e reservir ,!ater availa&le ,r irrigatin6ettenmaier et al., !--8. Similar results!ere reprte' &y Wang!-- a,ter cmparing 1) 'ierent m'els,r t"e I:CC ,urt" assessment an' cnclu'e' t"e increases ingreen"use gases !ill cause a !rl'!i'e increase in t"e ccurrence, agricultural 'rug"ts# T"ese m'els !ere cnsistent in t"eirpre'ictins , 'rier silo#er the South3est 2nited States acrss allseasns. )cross the &id3est, Ris"ra an' C"erkauer!-1- found thatdroughts ha#e actually decreased in the last half of the !-th century 3ith thelast signi(cant 3ides*read droughts in the 19@-s. "o3e#er, 3ithin thisrecord, they ,un' mai7eea mays 6. an' sy&ean yiel's t &ecrrelate' !it" meterlgical 'rug"t an' ma-imum 'ailytemperature 'uring t"e grainlling peri'# Drug"t !as ,un' t &et"e ma;r ,actr lea'ing t yiel' varia&ility , eig"t 'ierent crpsver years ,r t"e C7ec" %epu&lic"la#in$a et al., !--9. Wateravaila&ility !ill &ecme a ma;r 'eterminant in crp yiel'0osenz3eiget al., !--! and the interaction 3ith C! and tem*erature 3ill ha#e to beunderstood better to ada*t cro**ing systems to climate change.

Warming causes ,aster 'evelpment , crps t"at'ecreases yiel' ptentialHatel' et# al# 11Q6aboratory Director Mational 6aboratory for)griculture and the +n#ironment )mes, I)Q)MD B.J. 'oote, rofessor of)gronomy 2:loridaQ)MD '.). Bimball, 3or$er 2SD)7)0S, 2.S. )rid76and)gricultural 0esearch CenterQ)MD 6.". is$a, 3or$er 2SD) Cro* Systemsand Global Change 6abQ)MD 0. C. Izaurralde, rofessor Joint GlobalChange 0esearch Institute, aci(c Morth3est Mational 6ab 2&arylandQ)MD D. rt, 2SD)?)0S, hotosynthesis 0esearch 2nit and rofessor


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2IllinoisQ)MD ).&. %homson, Joint Global Change 0esearch Institute, aci(cMorth3est Mational 6ab. 2&arylandQ)MD D. /olfe, rofessor of"orticulture Cornell 2ni#ersity J.6, =Climate Im*acts on )gricultureIm*lications for Cro* roduction,> )gronomy Journal, Ool. 1-@, Iss. !, &arch!$11, )merican Society of )gronomy, D) ?!?!-1!Crp species respn' 'ierently t temperature t"rug"ut t"eir

li,e cycles# 8ac" species "as a 'ene' range , ma-imum an'minimum temperatures !it"in !"ic" gr!t" ccurs an' an ptimumtemperature at !"ic" plant gr!t" prgresses at its ,astest rate%able ! . Gr!t" rates sl! as temperature increases a&ve t"eptimum an' cease !"en plants are e-pse' t t"eir ma-imumceiling tem*erature. Begetative 'evelpmentnode and leaf a**earancerate "astens as temperatures increase up t t"e species ptimumtem*erature. Begetative 'evelpmentusually "as a "ig"er ptimumtemperature t"an repr'uctive 'evelpment# :rgressin , a crpt"rug" p"enlgical p"ases is accelerate' &y increasingtemperatures up t t"e species'epen'ent ptimum temperature.

%here are diFerences among annual non*erennial cro* s*ecies in their

cardinal tem*erature #alues as sho3n in %able ! Oalues re*orted in %able !re*resent conditions in 3hich tem*erature is the only limiting #ariable. It isim*ortant to realize that plant temperatures can &e 6uite 'ierent t"anair temperatures an' can &e !armer t"an air un'er !ater stresse'cn'itins r cler t"an air un'er a'e6uate sil !ater cn'itins. )recent re#ie3 by "at(eld et al. !--A *ro#ides a summary of the current useof *lant tem*eratures to Euantify 3ater stress in *lants. lant tem*eraturesare measured 3ith either attached thermometers to the leaf that are di4cultto maintain or 3ith relati#ely ex*ensi#e infrared thermometers, and therefore*lant tem*eratures ha#e been obser#ed much less often than airtem*eratures. ConseEuently, e#aluations of *lant res*onses to changes intem*erature ha#e been focused on air tem*erature rather than *lant orcano*y tem*eratures, including the #alues gi#en in %able ! 8-psure t"ig"er temperatures causes ,aster 'evelpment in nnperennialcrps( !"ic" 'es nt translate int an ptimum ,r ma-imumpr'uctin &ecause t"e s"rter li,e cycle means smaller plants( as"rtene' repr'uctive p"ase 'uratin( an' re'uce' yiel' ptential&ecause , re'uce' cumulative lig"t interceptin 'uring t"e gr!ingseasn# O&servatins acrss species "ave s"!n ptimumtemperatures ,r yiel' aregenerally l!er t"an t"e ptimumtemperature ,r lea, appearance rate( vegetative gr!t"( rrepr'uctive prgressin%able !.Ziel' may &e impacte' !"entemperatures ,all &el! r a&ve specic t"res"l's at critical times'uring 'evelpment. %he 'uratin , t"e crp li,e cycle is 'etermine'&y temperature an'the lcatin , specic cultivars t givenpr'uctin 7nes is a re@ectin , t"eir specic temperaturerespnse. )nother factor that has a ma


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c"anges e-cee'ing t"e t"res"l's 'uring t"e pllinatin stage ,'evelpment cul' &e 6uite 'amaging t crp pr'uctin &ecause ,t"e sensitivity , crp plants t temperature e-tremes 'uringthisgr!t" stage. %hese c"anges cuple' !it" varia&le precipitatin t"atplaces t"e plant un'er cn'itins , !ater stress !ul' e-acer&atet"e temperature eects# Warmer temperatures 'uring t"e nig"t,

es*ecially during the re*roducti#e *eriod, !ill re'uce ,ruit r grain si7e&ecause t"e rapi' rate , 'evelpment an' increase' respiratinrates. ) recent analysis by Q et al. !-1-, using the C+0+S_/heat A.-module in the 0/\&! model, evaluate' t"e interactins , increasingCO2 &taine' ,rm a 4AC8 e-perimentalong 3ith tem*erature, 3ater,and M. T"ey ,un' t"e eects , !ater an' N !ere greater t"an CO2eects n &imass an' yiel' an' t"at temperature eects set t"eCO2 eects# T"ese resultsfurther cnrm t"e cncept t"at t"ere arecunter&alancing eects ,rm 'ierent climate varia&les an' t"at'evelpment , a'aptatin r mitigatin strategies !ill "ave taccunt ,r t"e cm&ine' eects , climate varia&les n crpgr!t"( 'evelpment( an' yiel'. In an eFort to examine *otential

solutions to lo3 yields in sub7Saharan )frica, au- et al. !-1- evaluate'planting 'ates un'er climate c"ange scenaris t evaluate t"e eect, increasing CO2 an' "ig"er temperature ngroundnut peanut< an'mai7e# T"ey ,un' t"e psitive eect , CO2 !ul' set t"etemperature respnse in t"e ne-t 10 t 20 yr &ut !ul' &e vercme&y "ig"er temperatures &y 20*0. Changing *lanting dates 3ere bene(cialfor the driest locations because of the more eFecti#e use of *reci*itation anda#oidance of high tem*erature stresses. 'oth of these ty*es of analyses 3illha#e to be conducted to e#aluate *otential ada*tation strategies for allcro**ing regions. Increases in CO2 cncentratins er psitiveimpacts t plant gr!t" an' increase' W98# H!ever( t"ese psitiveimpacts may nt ,ully mitigate crp lsses assciate' !it" "eatstress( increases in evaprative 'eman'( an'Lr 'ecreases in !ateravaila&ility in sme regins#%he e*isodic #ariation in extremes maybecome the larger im*act on *lant gro3th and yield. %o counteract theseeFects 3ill reEuire management systems that oFer the largest degree ofresilience to climatic stresses as *ossible. %his 3ill include the de#elo*mentof management systems for rainfed en#ironments that can store themaximum amount of 3ater in the soil *ro(le and reduce 3ater stress on the*lant during critical gro3th *eriods.


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In'icts

Carter nly cares a&ut plitics nt statistical analysispre,er ur aut"rs

'ob War' 10, *olicy and communications director at the Grantham0esearch Institute on Climate Change and the +n#ironment at the 6ondonSchool of +conomics and olitical Science, 11?@-?1-, =Climate change sce*tic'ob Carter continues to *ly his trade>, %he Guardian,htt*??333.theguardian.com?en#ironment?cif7green?!-1-?no#?@-?climate7change7sce*tic7bob7carter ]]0S6ord 6a3sonLs Global /arming olicy :oundation is this afternoon hosting a *ublic lecture from rof 'obCarter on P)n alternati#e #ie3 of climate hazard _ a basis for *olicy;P.^Carter, a geologist at James Coo$2ni#ersity, is one of the 3orldLs most *rominent #oices of climate change denial and one of the #ery fe33ho has *ublished his #ie3s in academic


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Singer is a "ackSurce Watc" 1$, =S. :red Singer>, July 9, !-1A,htt*??333.source3atch.org?index.*h*?Category%obacco3i$i ]]0SInthe January !-1- edition of %lling Stne Raga7ine,


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s"ills ,r ,ssil ,uel interests .^/e5ll lea#e it at that_3hile 3e 3ant to correct "eartland5serrors, 3e recognize that they exist to 3aste *eo*le5s time, run interference on honest dialog and thri#e oFof the attention they get by *ro


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com*aring climate change =belie#ers> to the 2nabomber, Heartlan' makes n pretenseat &eing a scientic rgani7atin.^Heartlan'5s ,un'ing o#er the *ast decade

"as inclu'e' t"usan's , 'llars 'irectly ,rm 8--nR&il an' t"e

American :etrleum Institute ( &ut a large prtin , t"eir ,un'ing

!. million cmes ,rm t"e s"a'!y Dnr5s Capital 4un'( create'

e-pressly t cnceal t"e i'entity , large 'nrs t ,reemarketcauses#T"e Qc" &rt"ers appear t &e ,unneling mneyinto Donor5sCa*ital #ia their Bno3ledge and rogress :und.^Heartlan'5s cre'i&ility "as &een s'amage' t"at mainstream ,un'ers "ave &een a&an'ning t"ergani7atin( an' it "as &een ,rce' t 'iscntinue its annualclimate cn,erence#

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