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CO2 Life FantasticCO2 Life Fantastic
Inez Fung
University of California Berkeley
University of California Museum of PaleontologyMarch 6 2015
UnitsUnitsUnits
• 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton
• 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons
• 1 kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 (=44/12) kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
ppm=parts per million by volume2 PgC, well-mixed in entire atm 1 ppm CO2
Life Terrestrial: (ii) Carbon CycleLife Terrestrial: (ii) Carbon Cycle• Growth, mortality, decay
• Population: {ages}
• Photosynthesis (climate, CO2, soil H2O, resource limitation)
• Decay (T, soil H2O,..)
120 PgC/yr 60 60
1200 PgC~101-102yr
800 PgC ~ 101yr
• Biomass depleted in 13C and 14C
• Contemporary 14C
Life Terrestrial: (iii) Atmospheric signature
Life Terrestrial: (iii) Atmospheric signature
• Seasonal asynchrony photosynthesis & decomposition net fluxes of CO2 to and from atm seasonal cycle of CO2 in atm• Annual imbalance carbon source/sink
photosynthesis
decomposition
May
Oct
DIC, NO3
depth
atm
remineralization
photosyn
Life Aquatic: (i) Marine productivity
Life Aquatic: (i) Marine productivity
Phytoplankton: ~2 weeks
Higher trophic levels: 101 yr +
Shells and carcasses sink --> sediments on ocean floor
DIC
Life Aquatic: (ii) chemical dissociationLife Aquatic: (ii) chemical dissociation
DIC = CO2 + HCO3- + CO3
=
1-2 % 80-90%
CO2
100 Pg C/yr +photosyn
lower DIC
+ uptakewer lower pH
+ CO2 (sfc water)
+ outgassing
Higher SST
+ CO2
+ outgassingVertical profile of Dissolved Inorganic C (DIC)reflects biology; biology lower 13C/C than water
Life Aquatic (iii): Long distance traveller
Life Aquatic (iii): Long distance traveller
Ocean Thermohaline Circulation: ~103 years
Life Geologic: Remnants of past lifeLife Geologic: Remnants of past life
Biologic materials that escape decomposition are compressed at high pressure and temperature for 100’s of millions of years to form coal, oil and natural gas
Carboniferous: ~300 million years ago
COAL
OIL
GAS
Life Fantastic: The Natural Carbon Cycle
Life Fantastic: The Natural Carbon Cycle
Carbon is continuously transformed and cycled
Residence time: Land ~10-100 yrs; Ocean ~100-1000 yrs
The only long-term sink is “leakage” to sediments
C OO
CO O
O OC
symmetric
bending 15 m
asymmetric 4.3 m
Greenhouse effect: Radiation at specific wavelengths excite CO2 into higher energy states: energy is “absorbed” by the CO2 molecules
Life Aerial: (i) Greenhouse EffectLife Aerial: (i) Greenhouse Effect
Natural Carbon Cycle is perturbed …Natural Carbon Cycle is perturbed …
10
FF Emission is a one Way Flux to the atmosphere
Ultimate loss to sediments too slow: 38,100/0.2=200 kyr
Life Aerial: (ii) Atm CO2 is increasingLife Aerial: (ii) Atm CO2 is increasing
Mauna Loa Observatory
Life Aerial (iii): CO2 is a long-distance traveller in the atmosphereLife Aerial (iii): CO2 is a long-distance traveller in the atmosphere
• Long-term increase• Seasonal cycle amplitude <10% of global mean• N-S gradient ~ 1% global mean
Why is CO2 increasing? (i) Fossil Fuel Combustion & Industrial Processes
Why is CO2 increasing? (i) Fossil Fuel Combustion & Industrial Processes
Robert Adres, CDIAC; Robert Corkery, Vesta Animation
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/multimedia/Annual-carbon-1751-2010-medRes.mp4
Fossil Fuel and Cement EmissionsFossil Fuel and Cement Emissions
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990
Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminarySource: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2/
yr)
Cut and Burned
Why is CO2 Increasing? (ii) Large Store of
Carbon in tropics is disturbed
Why is CO2 Increasing? (ii) Large Store of
Carbon in tropics is disturbed
Reduced photosynthesis;Enhanced decomposition
• Three different methods have been used to estimate land-use change emissions,indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Total Global EmissionsTotal Global Emissions
Several QuestionsSeveral Questions
• How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission?
• Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go?
• How fast will CO2 increase in the future?
Q1: How do we know the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion?
Q1: How do we know the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion?
CO2: increasing
13C/C: decreasing
14C/C: decreasing
--> addition of old C of biologic origin (coal, oil, natural gas)
SIO
MLO-SPO CO2 gradient increases with FF emission (96% in the northern
hemisphere)
MLO-SPO CO2 gradient increases with FF emission (96% in the northern
hemisphere)
Several QuestionsSeveral Questions
• How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission?
• Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go?
• How fast will CO2 increase in the future?
Q2: Where are the elusive carbon sinks?
Q2: Where are the elusive carbon sinks?
Land and Oceans have absorbed the rest of the CO2
• Source: CDIAC Data; NOAA/ESRL Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)
• Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
26%9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr
32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%
+3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%
10.6±2.9 GtCO2/yr29%
Calculated as the residualof all other flux components
15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr44%
Recent Changes in Ocean Carbon
Chemistry
Recent Changes in Ocean Carbon
Chemistry
Surface ocean pCO2 increasing; follows the atmospheric record at Mauna Loa
pH has decreased by 0.04 in 20 years - carbonate more soluble
Carbonate ion decreasing:Tougher to precipitate
MLO
Ocean data from Hawaii Ocean Time Series (HOTS)http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/
Several QuestionsSeveral Questions
• How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission?
• Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go?
• How fast will CO2 increase in the future?
Atm CO2 increase varies with climateAtm CO2 increase varies with climate
• 2000-2003: rapid increase because of reduced mid-latitude land uptake (drought)
• 2004: return of rains• reduced southern uptake
(Lovenduski et al. 2007; LeQuere et al. 2007)
• Increase in tropical sink?
Outlook: faster CO2 increase in the atm
Outlook: faster CO2 increase in the atm
• Recent - decreasing land and ocean carbon sink
• 21stC: the warming feeds the warming– capacity of land to store carbon decreases with
warming and droughts – capacity of oceans to store carbon decreases with
warming (decreased solubility), acidification, and increasing stratification (reduced biology with reduced mixing of nutrients from depth)
– fossil fuel emission faster than uptake bottleneck --> larger airborne CO2 fraction
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
ChangeRio de Janeiro, 1992
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
ChangeRio de Janeiro, 1992
• Ultimate objective: stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system
• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
UNFCCC: Conference Of Parties (COP)UNFCCC: Conference Of Parties (COP)
(I) Emission Targets
• COP 3: Kyoto Protocol: Dec 1997– Binding targets for 37 industrialized
countries and the European Union to reduce GHG emissions.
– ~5% below 1990 levels over the 5 year period 2008-2012
Greenhouse Gas covered by the UN
Framework Convention for Climate
Change
Greenhouse Gas covered by the UN
Framework Convention for Climate
Change
51
Emissions weighted by 100-yr global warming potential (IPCC 2007)
CO2 fossil fuel use(56.6%)
Methods for Estimating National Emissions
Methods for Estimating National Emissions
United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) National inventories:
– Estimates anthropogenic emissions and removals (sinks)
– Based on socio-economic statistics– Self-reporting – varying degrees of
confidence
52
US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission
DOE: Energy Information Agency:• inventory of fuels• Emission = Fuel weight x emission factor
EPA: eGRID• inventory of consumption• Emission = Activity x emission factor
EPA does not include bunker fuels
53
(Emission per ton steel)
(Steel Production)
US Emission Estimates – agree to 3%US Emission Estimates – agree to 3%
54
Measure directly at stack
Calculate from mass of fuel
CO2 Sampler
LAND
CO2 Sampler
Prevailing Wind
CO2
Tracer-Transport InversionCurrent errors of 100% or more for all gases.
Atmospheric CO2 Pattern Reflects Emission PatternAtmospheric CO2 Pattern Reflects Emission Pattern
Methods for Estimating EmissionsMethods for Estimating Emissions
• Bottom-up: UNFCCC National inventories – Estimates anthropogenic emissions and
removals (sinks)– Based on socio-economic statistics
• Top-Down: Tracer-transport inversion – Estimates net anthropogenic and natural
sources and sinks – Based on atmospheric and/or oceanic
measurements of the gases and models of air and water flow
57
Improving Independent Estimates of Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions
Improving Independent Estimates of Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions
58
• Deploy a CO2-sensing satellite
• Establish new atmospheric sampling stations (ground, ocean surface, aircraft) in strategic locations
• Measure 14C in the CO2 samples already being collected
(i) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)(i) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
• High resolution spectra of reflected sunlight in near IR CO2 and O2 bands
• 3 km2 footprint at nadir• 3 Hz• Sun-Synchronous Orbit (7km/s):
16-day repeat
Clouds/Aerosols, H2O, Temperature
CO2 1.61m
CO2 2.06 m
Clouds/Aerosols, Surface Pressure
Column CO2
O2 A-band
Local Nadir
Glint Spot
Ground Track
Nadir
Glint
OCO Launch:
01:55:30 PST 24
February 2009
OCO Launch:
01:55:30 PST 24
February 2009
OCO failed to achieve orbit
Approved for reflight, 2010: climate treaty verification.
Liftoff OCO2 1:56am PST July 2 2014
Vandenberg Air Force Base, California
Liftoff OCO2 1:56am PST July 2 2014
Vandenberg Air Force Base, California
•https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njf67aov4XA
• July 1: Aborted launch T-42 seconds
“The A-Train”: comprehensive observations
“The A-Train”: comprehensive observations
OCO213:15:
AURA13:38:
TES – T, P, H2O, O3, CH4, COMLS – O3, H2O, COHIRDLS – T, O3, H2O, CO2, CH4
OMI – O3, aerosol climatology
aerosols, polarization
CloudSat – 3-D cloud climatologyCALIPSO – 3-D aerosol climatology
AIRS – T, P, H2O, CO2, CH4
MODIS – cloud, aerosols, albedo
OCO - - CO2
O2 A-band ps, clouds, aerosols
AMSR2 - -SST, sea ice, precip water vapor, cloud liq water
705 km orbit. First data expected November 2014
Summary: Climate Treaty VerificationSummary: Climate Treaty Verification
• Need to verify self-reported emission estimates
• Need to establish baseline emissions
• Need to account for changing land and ocean sinks
• Satellite CO2 + carbon data assimilation system CO2 fluxes at sub-national levels
• Will demonstrate CO2 sensing at local scales
63