CNSA MARNDR

Figure 1 Current estimated food security conditions (January-March 2009)

HAITI Food Security Outlook N0 20 Food Security Update January through July 2009

An estimated three million Haitians are currently classified as food insecure representing nearly a third of the countryrsquos population The hardest hit areas lie mostly in the Northwestern Artibonite Southeastern Nippes and Grande Anse departments (see figure 1) With the large disparities in conditions within each area municipalities currently regarded as generally food secure may include pockets of food insecurity or have high rates of child malnutrition

According to the most likely scenario established by the CNSA and FEWS NET Haiti staple food prices are expected to decline steadily during the first half of 2009 despite the poor harvest which is still in progress This assumption is based mainly on the downward trend in international market prices for grain Under this scenario the size of the food‐insecure population would be scaled back slightly from 3 million to approximately 28 million

The worst case scenario is based mainly on the reports of localized landslides and flooding and the pattern of inadequate unevenly distributed rainfall in May and June of last year (at the beginning ofthe hurricane season) and the global financial crisis erupting in the midst of an election campaign Under this scenario the size of the food‐insecure population would grow to approximately 31 million between April and June of this year

Given the scale of current and expected future food insecurity problems in the first half of this year recommendations are being made to the government (specifically to interested ministries) and its partners (donors United Nations agencies and organizations NGOs and civil society organizations) for various interventions to continue to meet current needs and prevent the situation from escalating These recommendations which are outlined at the end of this report involve mounting agricultural revitalization and environmental protection road infrastructure water supply sanitation health and nutrition programs extending ongoing emergency programs and strengthening programs designed to reduce the countryrsquos vulnerability to natural disasters With food‐insecure households primarily in need of cash income to ensure adequate food access on local markets these programs should focus mainly on labor‐intensive activities in order to create as many jobs as possible Improvements in the targeting of food‐insecure areas and population groups better synergy between the activities of different partners and good coordination are also needed to ensure program efficiency and effectiveness

Note Conditions in many area are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source FEWS NET

This report is made possible by assistance from the following organizations

CNSA wwwcnsahaitiorg FEWS NET Haiti haitifewsnet wwwfewsnet

European Union

CNSA 7 Delmas 99 PAP Haiti Teacutel-Fax (509) 237-3055 2257-6333 2527-2633

FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006

World FoodProgram

The opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations assisting the CNSA (the European Union FAO and WFP) and FEWS NET (USAID)

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 2

Current food security situation January through March 2009

Currently the three main drivers of food security are (1) the level of and trends in international market prices for grain (2) the December 2008 ‐ February 2009 harvest and (3) ongoing or scheduled emergency intervention programs mounted primarily in response to the demonstrations of April of last year and last yearrsquos AugustSeptember storms

The decline in international market prices for grain and petroleum products cut Haitirsquos inflation rate from 20 to 10 percent between September and December of last year improving food access for Haitians dependant on local markets for most of their food supplies (generally the poorest rural households and urban households) Prices for rice black beans and maize meal on the Croix‐des‐Bossales market in Port‐au‐Prince came down by 27 percent 1 percent and 28 percent respectively between September 2008 and January 2009 (see figure 2)

Figure 2 Trends in nominal retail prices on the Croix-de-Bossales market in Port-au-Prince (in gourdes per 6 lb sack)

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

The fall harvest which is just about over by now has considerably improved the availability of staple foodstuffs (such as corn beans tubers etc) on local markets The last winter growing season was marked by four devastating storms in AugustSeptember Crop production is expected to be 20 percent below figures for 2007 and 30 percent below 2006 The reported rainfall deficit in the last quarter of 2008 hurt the growing season and will adversely affect harvests particularly in the plains where unlike other parts of the country the growing season runs from November to March However the gradual repair of irrigation infrastructure destroyed by flooding and the availability of farm inputs and fertilizer have helped boost crop production around the country particularly in irrigated areas in the Lower Artibonite and on the Les Cayes Plain

Despite the recession in the United States the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) reported that monthly flows of migrant remittances to family members back home in Haiti during the first quarter of the fiscal year (October‐December 2008) had increased by more than US$ 20 million from the same quarter of the previous year According to the BRH the seasonal surge in remittances in December of last year and January of this year was also larger than in the previous year

There are a number of ongoing emergency intervention programs funded by the Haitian government andor the donor community (the European Union USAID United Nations organizations and other cooperation agencies) designed to reduce food insecurity However according to UN agencies these programs lack the necessary funding to meet present and future needs The detection of pockets of malnutrition in November of last year led to improved targeting of highly and extremely food‐insecure areas The implementation of these programs should have brought down the severe acute malnutrition rates reported in certain parts of Belle Anse and Azile for example to levels comparable to pre‐September 2008 levels However with the poor harvest malnutrition rates could shoot back up (particularly during the lean period in April and May especially in remote mountainous areas) if emergency relief programs are not extended Large‐scale private investment projects and government programs designed to address major structural food insecurity environmental degradation poverty and disaster vulnerability problems are still unable to meet current needs

With the positive developments observed over the past three months the CNSA and FEWS NET are estimating the size of the current food‐insecure population at approximately 3 million inhabitants (about 10 percent smaller than it was going into the harvest season) This population is concentrated mainly in the countryrsquos Artibonite Northwestern Southeastern Northeastern and Grande Anse departments Most municipalities around the country are classified as moderately food‐insecure (Note Areas are classified as moderately food‐insecure when most households can meet their food needs only by drawing more heavily on their food reserves or on secondary sources of income Any deterioration in market conditions or in their sources of income will quickly push them into the highly food‐insecure category While emergency interventions are unnecessary preparations should be made for the implementation of contingency measures)

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 3

Most likely food security scenario April ndash June 2009

The main variables considered in devising different scenarios for the current food security assessment for the first half of 2009 were trends in international market prices for grain rainfall forecasts for the next few months and the scale of field‐level intervention programs In general conditions during the first half of this six‐month period (January ndash March 2009) are expected to be better than in the second half of the period which coincides with the lean period (in AprilMay) and the beginning of the hurricane season The main positive factors helping to improve domestic food security conditions are the lower international market prices for staple foodstuffs and petroleum products and the extension of disaster relief programs The main negative factors are the relatively poor December 2008 ndash February 2009 harvest (which normally meets about one fourth of annual food needs with most needs currently met by commercial imports) the projected rainfall deficit for the spring season (March through June) and the recession in the United States With low‐income households in both rural and urban areas relying on the market as the main source of their food supplies the anticipated overall effect is animprovement in food security conditions Table 1 sums up the expected effects of the main variables used in establishing the most likely food security scenario

Under to this scenario 28 million Haitians would be facing food insecurity problems As illustrated in Figure 3 the hardest hit departments would be the Northwestern Artibonite Southeastern Nippes and Grande Anse departments Job creation under labor‐intensive public works programs could be a particularly good solution for poor residents of the Northwestern and Artibonite departments highly dependent on earned income for their food access

Figure 3 Estimated food security conditions in the most-likely scenario April-June 2009

Note Conditions in many areas are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

Table 1 Most likely scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security Drop in international market prices for grain particularly in prices for rice and wheat with prices stabilizing at levels close to price figures for late 2007 Oil prices would rise slightly but would also continue to hover around mid-2007 prices which were considered relatively low

Prices for food and transportation will fall though not to the same extent as international market prices due to rigidities in price setting in Haiti (the setting of retail prices for imports)

The positive trends in international market prices for staple foodstuffs will keep inflation within 8 to 16 percent the target set by the government for the current fiscal year

The lower prices are especially helpful to urban and extremely poor rural households who buy more food than they sell However farm income could decline if production costs come down more slowly than sales prices

The rainfall deficit which is already raising concerns in the northern Market supplies of different local crops from different ecosystems part of the country (particularly in the Northwest) continues are lower than in the past two years particularly during the lean throughout the entire spring growing season (March-June 2009) period in AprilMay

Despite the improvement in the availability of farm inputs and The JuneJuly harvest is expected to be poor due to adverse fertilizer at the country level supplies in remote areas at long climatic conditions and delays in the distribution of farm inputs distances from the capital are still inadequate and distributions are pointing to elevated food insecurity levels in the second half of running behind schedule 2009

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 4

Figure 4 Estimated food security conditions in the worst-case scenario April-June 2009

Ongoing response programs (repair programs for farm infrastructure watershed management programs school meal programs etc) are extended and have an increasing effect as their implementation progresses Such interventions include both government programs and projects mounted with outside funding

The implementation of different food security programs particularly surveillance programs for child malnutrition is able to scale back the number of extreme cases of malnutrition and thus reduce acute food insecurity despite continuing cases of moderate malnutrition

The budget-making and review process and budget approval by Parliament continues to be held up by bureaucratic red-tape

There is no significant improvement in the countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside funding The performance of the economy in the first half of the year falls short of the governmentrsquos target 25 percent growth rate for fiscal year 2009

Public law and order is maintained and there is more political stability in the wake of the partial senatorial elections scheduled for April 2009

The political climate and security situation improve There is no disruption in economic activity though any significant growth in productive private investment or employment is slow in coming

The recession in the United States has no effect on the volume of cash remittances to families in Haiti

There is no change in economy activity food access or the ability of recipient households to cope with minor shocks

Worst‐case food security scenario April ndash June 2009

The underlying assumptions for the worst‐case scenario are recapped in Table 2 If these assumptions prove correct food insecurity levels would rise even further affecting some 31 million Haitians This figure is not that far from the estimated 28 million food‐insecure Haitians under the most likely scenario since many of the chronic factors taken into account (the condition of infrastructure or the environment and access to basic services) would not change However many households would face more severe food insecurity problems under the worst‐case scenario which was not taken into account in the prospective study

Under this scenario food insecurity problems will escalate particularly if decision‐makers fail to take proper measures in time The CNSA and FEWS NET put the size of the food‐insecure population in this scenario at approximately 31 million As illustrated in Figure 4 the hardest hit departments would be the Northwestern Northeastern Southeastern and Artibonite departments

Note Conditions in many areas are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 5

Table 2 Worst-case scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security International market prices for grain (particularly rice prices which are known for being extremely volatile) increase due mainly to the growth in demand in developing countries

Prices for food and transportation increase making food access even more difficult for the countryrsquos poorest households

The combination of a severe rainfall deficit and poor distribution of The harvest forecast for the JuneJuly harvest is extremely poor rainfall drives up prices for local food crops particularly during the suggesting a limited availability of locally grown crops and thus a lean period (AprilMay) rise in food insecurity levels even in the second half of the year

Imports of staple foodstuffs pick up significantly upsetting the trade Flooding landslides and cave-ins cause localized heavy damage balance and driving down the value of the Haitian gourde against during the rainy season especially in May and June In June which the US dollar Low market supplies reduce food availability and marks the beginning of the hurricane season the country is hit by curtail food access in remote areas one or more destructive hurricanes causing major flooding particularly in the plains and low-lying cities crossed by rivers

There are long delays in approving and implementing the national The countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside budget The Parliamentrsquos recent rejection of the budget proposal funding remains limited The governmentrsquos economic growth and and the resulting delay is already a source of concern inflation targets are not met

Supplies of certain strategic products such as fertilizer and Economic activity is disrupted resulting in a decline in income and petroleum products grow increasingly erratic deterioration in living conditions particularly for the poorest

households

The US recession continues despite the new administrationrsquos Faltering demand in the United States deters any expansion in stimulus plan Economic growth slows in the Dominican Republic exports not to mention any new private investment There are

fewer opportunities for temporary employment in the Dominican Republic and deportations of illegal immigrants are stepped up The sharp decline in migrant remittances has an adverse effect on industries such as construction and on the ability of recipient households to cope with food insecurity problems

Acute food insecurity triggered by the materialization of the Economic losses from looting are considerable giving the private aforementioned threats in an election year creates social unrest sector less incentive and less ability to create jobs further

heightening food insecurity problems for poor households and high-risk groups

Conclusion and recommendations

In line with the scenarios established based on their study of different relevant variables and their anticipated effects the CNSA and FEWS NET are predicting a small improvement in food security conditions in the first quarter of the year (January through March) followed by a slight deterioration in conditions in the second quarter (April through June) As a result specific activities targeting the three components of food security (availability access and utilization) are recommended (see Table 3) Agricultural environmental infrastructure water supply and sanitation programs should focus on labor‐intensive activities as a program implementation strategy Moreover inter‐institutional partnerships program monitoring evaluation and coordination and synergyndashbuilding should be encouraged as a way of improving program efficiency and effectiveness

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 6

Table 3 Recommended activities by program area and institutional stakeholders involved

Program areas Activities Key institutional stakeholders Timely distributions of farm inputs to improve crop yields MARNDR FAO and NGOs

Agriculture and environment

Watershed management to reduce environmental vulnerability focusing on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Rehabilitation of hydroagricultural development infrastructure with the focus on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Recapitalization of farm units (farm implements livestock herds credit)

MARNDR FAO IMF NGOs

Infrastructure Road repairs (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works) particularly repairs of farm-to-market roads to facilitate the marketing of local crops

MARNDR WFP NGOs

Water supply and sanitation

Repair of damaged water supply systems (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works)

SNEP UNICEF NGOs

Maintenance of sewer and drain pipes in cities (repair and flushing with the emphasis on labor-intensive methods) to facilitate rainwater runoff

TPTC IOM NGOs

Nutritional surveillance program MSPP UNICEF WFP NGOs

Health and nutrition Extension and strengthening of school meal programs PNCS donors WFP NGOs

Better targeting of service areas and population groups for therapeutic feeding programs

MSPP UNICEF WHOPAHO NGOs

Fund-raising Raise additional funding to step up response programs in general and mitigation and vulnerability-reducing programs in particular

Donors government

Assistance in strengthening certain ministry and local government structures to facilitate program implementation and improve results

Interested ministries donors United Nations organizations

Coordination and synergy-building

Framing of a contingency plan for the 2009 hurricane season to improve preventive measures and preparedness

DPC CNSA MDE donors United Nations organizations NGOs

Joint monitoring and evaluation to make timely course corrections and draw lessons for the future

CNSA DPC United Nations organizations NGOs and civil society

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 3

Most likely food security scenario April ndash June 2009

The main variables considered in devising different scenarios for the current food security assessment for the first half of 2009 were trends in international market prices for grain rainfall forecasts for the next few months and the scale of field‐level intervention programs In general conditions during the first half of this six‐month period (January ndash March 2009) are expected to be better than in the second half of the period which coincides with the lean period (in AprilMay) and the beginning of the hurricane season The main positive factors helping to improve domestic food security conditions are the lower international market prices for staple foodstuffs and petroleum products and the extension of disaster relief programs The main negative factors are the relatively poor December 2008 ndash February 2009 harvest (which normally meets about one fourth of annual food needs with most needs currently met by commercial imports) the projected rainfall deficit for the spring season (March through June) and the recession in the United States With low‐income households in both rural and urban areas relying on the market as the main source of their food supplies the anticipated overall effect is animprovement in food security conditions Table 1 sums up the expected effects of the main variables used in establishing the most likely food security scenario

Under to this scenario 28 million Haitians would be facing food insecurity problems As illustrated in Figure 3 the hardest hit departments would be the Northwestern Artibonite Southeastern Nippes and Grande Anse departments Job creation under labor‐intensive public works programs could be a particularly good solution for poor residents of the Northwestern and Artibonite departments highly dependent on earned income for their food access

Figure 3 Estimated food security conditions in the most-likely scenario April-June 2009

Note Conditions in many areas are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

Table 1 Most likely scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security Drop in international market prices for grain particularly in prices for rice and wheat with prices stabilizing at levels close to price figures for late 2007 Oil prices would rise slightly but would also continue to hover around mid-2007 prices which were considered relatively low

Prices for food and transportation will fall though not to the same extent as international market prices due to rigidities in price setting in Haiti (the setting of retail prices for imports)

The positive trends in international market prices for staple foodstuffs will keep inflation within 8 to 16 percent the target set by the government for the current fiscal year

The lower prices are especially helpful to urban and extremely poor rural households who buy more food than they sell However farm income could decline if production costs come down more slowly than sales prices

The rainfall deficit which is already raising concerns in the northern Market supplies of different local crops from different ecosystems part of the country (particularly in the Northwest) continues are lower than in the past two years particularly during the lean throughout the entire spring growing season (March-June 2009) period in AprilMay

Despite the improvement in the availability of farm inputs and The JuneJuly harvest is expected to be poor due to adverse fertilizer at the country level supplies in remote areas at long climatic conditions and delays in the distribution of farm inputs distances from the capital are still inadequate and distributions are pointing to elevated food insecurity levels in the second half of running behind schedule 2009

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 4

Figure 4 Estimated food security conditions in the worst-case scenario April-June 2009

Ongoing response programs (repair programs for farm infrastructure watershed management programs school meal programs etc) are extended and have an increasing effect as their implementation progresses Such interventions include both government programs and projects mounted with outside funding

The implementation of different food security programs particularly surveillance programs for child malnutrition is able to scale back the number of extreme cases of malnutrition and thus reduce acute food insecurity despite continuing cases of moderate malnutrition

The budget-making and review process and budget approval by Parliament continues to be held up by bureaucratic red-tape

There is no significant improvement in the countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside funding The performance of the economy in the first half of the year falls short of the governmentrsquos target 25 percent growth rate for fiscal year 2009

Public law and order is maintained and there is more political stability in the wake of the partial senatorial elections scheduled for April 2009

The political climate and security situation improve There is no disruption in economic activity though any significant growth in productive private investment or employment is slow in coming

The recession in the United States has no effect on the volume of cash remittances to families in Haiti

There is no change in economy activity food access or the ability of recipient households to cope with minor shocks

Worst‐case food security scenario April ndash June 2009

The underlying assumptions for the worst‐case scenario are recapped in Table 2 If these assumptions prove correct food insecurity levels would rise even further affecting some 31 million Haitians This figure is not that far from the estimated 28 million food‐insecure Haitians under the most likely scenario since many of the chronic factors taken into account (the condition of infrastructure or the environment and access to basic services) would not change However many households would face more severe food insecurity problems under the worst‐case scenario which was not taken into account in the prospective study

Under this scenario food insecurity problems will escalate particularly if decision‐makers fail to take proper measures in time The CNSA and FEWS NET put the size of the food‐insecure population in this scenario at approximately 31 million As illustrated in Figure 4 the hardest hit departments would be the Northwestern Northeastern Southeastern and Artibonite departments

Note Conditions in many areas are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 5

Table 2 Worst-case scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security International market prices for grain (particularly rice prices which are known for being extremely volatile) increase due mainly to the growth in demand in developing countries

Prices for food and transportation increase making food access even more difficult for the countryrsquos poorest households

The combination of a severe rainfall deficit and poor distribution of The harvest forecast for the JuneJuly harvest is extremely poor rainfall drives up prices for local food crops particularly during the suggesting a limited availability of locally grown crops and thus a lean period (AprilMay) rise in food insecurity levels even in the second half of the year

Imports of staple foodstuffs pick up significantly upsetting the trade Flooding landslides and cave-ins cause localized heavy damage balance and driving down the value of the Haitian gourde against during the rainy season especially in May and June In June which the US dollar Low market supplies reduce food availability and marks the beginning of the hurricane season the country is hit by curtail food access in remote areas one or more destructive hurricanes causing major flooding particularly in the plains and low-lying cities crossed by rivers

There are long delays in approving and implementing the national The countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside budget The Parliamentrsquos recent rejection of the budget proposal funding remains limited The governmentrsquos economic growth and and the resulting delay is already a source of concern inflation targets are not met

Supplies of certain strategic products such as fertilizer and Economic activity is disrupted resulting in a decline in income and petroleum products grow increasingly erratic deterioration in living conditions particularly for the poorest

households

The US recession continues despite the new administrationrsquos Faltering demand in the United States deters any expansion in stimulus plan Economic growth slows in the Dominican Republic exports not to mention any new private investment There are

fewer opportunities for temporary employment in the Dominican Republic and deportations of illegal immigrants are stepped up The sharp decline in migrant remittances has an adverse effect on industries such as construction and on the ability of recipient households to cope with food insecurity problems

Acute food insecurity triggered by the materialization of the Economic losses from looting are considerable giving the private aforementioned threats in an election year creates social unrest sector less incentive and less ability to create jobs further

heightening food insecurity problems for poor households and high-risk groups

Conclusion and recommendations

In line with the scenarios established based on their study of different relevant variables and their anticipated effects the CNSA and FEWS NET are predicting a small improvement in food security conditions in the first quarter of the year (January through March) followed by a slight deterioration in conditions in the second quarter (April through June) As a result specific activities targeting the three components of food security (availability access and utilization) are recommended (see Table 3) Agricultural environmental infrastructure water supply and sanitation programs should focus on labor‐intensive activities as a program implementation strategy Moreover inter‐institutional partnerships program monitoring evaluation and coordination and synergyndashbuilding should be encouraged as a way of improving program efficiency and effectiveness

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 6

Table 3 Recommended activities by program area and institutional stakeholders involved

Program areas Activities Key institutional stakeholders Timely distributions of farm inputs to improve crop yields MARNDR FAO and NGOs

Agriculture and environment

Watershed management to reduce environmental vulnerability focusing on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Rehabilitation of hydroagricultural development infrastructure with the focus on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Recapitalization of farm units (farm implements livestock herds credit)

MARNDR FAO IMF NGOs

Infrastructure Road repairs (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works) particularly repairs of farm-to-market roads to facilitate the marketing of local crops

MARNDR WFP NGOs

Water supply and sanitation

Repair of damaged water supply systems (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works)

SNEP UNICEF NGOs

Maintenance of sewer and drain pipes in cities (repair and flushing with the emphasis on labor-intensive methods) to facilitate rainwater runoff

TPTC IOM NGOs

Nutritional surveillance program MSPP UNICEF WFP NGOs

Health and nutrition Extension and strengthening of school meal programs PNCS donors WFP NGOs

Better targeting of service areas and population groups for therapeutic feeding programs

MSPP UNICEF WHOPAHO NGOs

Fund-raising Raise additional funding to step up response programs in general and mitigation and vulnerability-reducing programs in particular

Donors government

Assistance in strengthening certain ministry and local government structures to facilitate program implementation and improve results

Interested ministries donors United Nations organizations

Coordination and synergy-building

Framing of a contingency plan for the 2009 hurricane season to improve preventive measures and preparedness

DPC CNSA MDE donors United Nations organizations NGOs

Joint monitoring and evaluation to make timely course corrections and draw lessons for the future

CNSA DPC United Nations organizations NGOs and civil society

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 4

Figure 4 Estimated food security conditions in the worst-case scenario April-June 2009

Ongoing response programs (repair programs for farm infrastructure watershed management programs school meal programs etc) are extended and have an increasing effect as their implementation progresses Such interventions include both government programs and projects mounted with outside funding

The implementation of different food security programs particularly surveillance programs for child malnutrition is able to scale back the number of extreme cases of malnutrition and thus reduce acute food insecurity despite continuing cases of moderate malnutrition

The budget-making and review process and budget approval by Parliament continues to be held up by bureaucratic red-tape

There is no significant improvement in the countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside funding The performance of the economy in the first half of the year falls short of the governmentrsquos target 25 percent growth rate for fiscal year 2009

Public law and order is maintained and there is more political stability in the wake of the partial senatorial elections scheduled for April 2009

The political climate and security situation improve There is no disruption in economic activity though any significant growth in productive private investment or employment is slow in coming

The recession in the United States has no effect on the volume of cash remittances to families in Haiti

There is no change in economy activity food access or the ability of recipient households to cope with minor shocks

Worst‐case food security scenario April ndash June 2009

The underlying assumptions for the worst‐case scenario are recapped in Table 2 If these assumptions prove correct food insecurity levels would rise even further affecting some 31 million Haitians This figure is not that far from the estimated 28 million food‐insecure Haitians under the most likely scenario since many of the chronic factors taken into account (the condition of infrastructure or the environment and access to basic services) would not change However many households would face more severe food insecurity problems under the worst‐case scenario which was not taken into account in the prospective study

Under this scenario food insecurity problems will escalate particularly if decision‐makers fail to take proper measures in time The CNSA and FEWS NET put the size of the food‐insecure population in this scenario at approximately 31 million As illustrated in Figure 4 the hardest hit departments would be the Northwestern Northeastern Southeastern and Artibonite departments

Note Conditions in many areas are mixed with adjacent municipalities such as Kenskoff (in the West) and Marigot (in the Southeast) showing as green in one case and orange in the other Thus municipalities classified as generally food secure may be masking pockets of higher levels of food insecurity and in some cases pockets of severe malnutrition

Source CNSAFEWS NET Haiti

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 5

Table 2 Worst-case scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security International market prices for grain (particularly rice prices which are known for being extremely volatile) increase due mainly to the growth in demand in developing countries

Prices for food and transportation increase making food access even more difficult for the countryrsquos poorest households

The combination of a severe rainfall deficit and poor distribution of The harvest forecast for the JuneJuly harvest is extremely poor rainfall drives up prices for local food crops particularly during the suggesting a limited availability of locally grown crops and thus a lean period (AprilMay) rise in food insecurity levels even in the second half of the year

Imports of staple foodstuffs pick up significantly upsetting the trade Flooding landslides and cave-ins cause localized heavy damage balance and driving down the value of the Haitian gourde against during the rainy season especially in May and June In June which the US dollar Low market supplies reduce food availability and marks the beginning of the hurricane season the country is hit by curtail food access in remote areas one or more destructive hurricanes causing major flooding particularly in the plains and low-lying cities crossed by rivers

There are long delays in approving and implementing the national The countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside budget The Parliamentrsquos recent rejection of the budget proposal funding remains limited The governmentrsquos economic growth and and the resulting delay is already a source of concern inflation targets are not met

Supplies of certain strategic products such as fertilizer and Economic activity is disrupted resulting in a decline in income and petroleum products grow increasingly erratic deterioration in living conditions particularly for the poorest

households

The US recession continues despite the new administrationrsquos Faltering demand in the United States deters any expansion in stimulus plan Economic growth slows in the Dominican Republic exports not to mention any new private investment There are

fewer opportunities for temporary employment in the Dominican Republic and deportations of illegal immigrants are stepped up The sharp decline in migrant remittances has an adverse effect on industries such as construction and on the ability of recipient households to cope with food insecurity problems

Acute food insecurity triggered by the materialization of the Economic losses from looting are considerable giving the private aforementioned threats in an election year creates social unrest sector less incentive and less ability to create jobs further

heightening food insecurity problems for poor households and high-risk groups

Conclusion and recommendations

In line with the scenarios established based on their study of different relevant variables and their anticipated effects the CNSA and FEWS NET are predicting a small improvement in food security conditions in the first quarter of the year (January through March) followed by a slight deterioration in conditions in the second quarter (April through June) As a result specific activities targeting the three components of food security (availability access and utilization) are recommended (see Table 3) Agricultural environmental infrastructure water supply and sanitation programs should focus on labor‐intensive activities as a program implementation strategy Moreover inter‐institutional partnerships program monitoring evaluation and coordination and synergyndashbuilding should be encouraged as a way of improving program efficiency and effectiveness

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 6

Table 3 Recommended activities by program area and institutional stakeholders involved

Program areas Activities Key institutional stakeholders Timely distributions of farm inputs to improve crop yields MARNDR FAO and NGOs

Agriculture and environment

Watershed management to reduce environmental vulnerability focusing on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Rehabilitation of hydroagricultural development infrastructure with the focus on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Recapitalization of farm units (farm implements livestock herds credit)

MARNDR FAO IMF NGOs

Infrastructure Road repairs (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works) particularly repairs of farm-to-market roads to facilitate the marketing of local crops

MARNDR WFP NGOs

Water supply and sanitation

Repair of damaged water supply systems (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works)

SNEP UNICEF NGOs

Maintenance of sewer and drain pipes in cities (repair and flushing with the emphasis on labor-intensive methods) to facilitate rainwater runoff

TPTC IOM NGOs

Nutritional surveillance program MSPP UNICEF WFP NGOs

Health and nutrition Extension and strengthening of school meal programs PNCS donors WFP NGOs

Better targeting of service areas and population groups for therapeutic feeding programs

MSPP UNICEF WHOPAHO NGOs

Fund-raising Raise additional funding to step up response programs in general and mitigation and vulnerability-reducing programs in particular

Donors government

Assistance in strengthening certain ministry and local government structures to facilitate program implementation and improve results

Interested ministries donors United Nations organizations

Coordination and synergy-building

Framing of a contingency plan for the 2009 hurricane season to improve preventive measures and preparedness

DPC CNSA MDE donors United Nations organizations NGOs

Joint monitoring and evaluation to make timely course corrections and draw lessons for the future

CNSA DPC United Nations organizations NGOs and civil society

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 5

Table 2 Worst-case scenario April through June 2009

Variables and assumptions Major anticipated effects on food security International market prices for grain (particularly rice prices which are known for being extremely volatile) increase due mainly to the growth in demand in developing countries

Prices for food and transportation increase making food access even more difficult for the countryrsquos poorest households

The combination of a severe rainfall deficit and poor distribution of The harvest forecast for the JuneJuly harvest is extremely poor rainfall drives up prices for local food crops particularly during the suggesting a limited availability of locally grown crops and thus a lean period (AprilMay) rise in food insecurity levels even in the second half of the year

Imports of staple foodstuffs pick up significantly upsetting the trade Flooding landslides and cave-ins cause localized heavy damage balance and driving down the value of the Haitian gourde against during the rainy season especially in May and June In June which the US dollar Low market supplies reduce food availability and marks the beginning of the hurricane season the country is hit by curtail food access in remote areas one or more destructive hurricanes causing major flooding particularly in the plains and low-lying cities crossed by rivers

There are long delays in approving and implementing the national The countryrsquos ability to raise and absorb domestic and outside budget The Parliamentrsquos recent rejection of the budget proposal funding remains limited The governmentrsquos economic growth and and the resulting delay is already a source of concern inflation targets are not met

Supplies of certain strategic products such as fertilizer and Economic activity is disrupted resulting in a decline in income and petroleum products grow increasingly erratic deterioration in living conditions particularly for the poorest

households

The US recession continues despite the new administrationrsquos Faltering demand in the United States deters any expansion in stimulus plan Economic growth slows in the Dominican Republic exports not to mention any new private investment There are

fewer opportunities for temporary employment in the Dominican Republic and deportations of illegal immigrants are stepped up The sharp decline in migrant remittances has an adverse effect on industries such as construction and on the ability of recipient households to cope with food insecurity problems

Acute food insecurity triggered by the materialization of the Economic losses from looting are considerable giving the private aforementioned threats in an election year creates social unrest sector less incentive and less ability to create jobs further

heightening food insecurity problems for poor households and high-risk groups

Conclusion and recommendations

In line with the scenarios established based on their study of different relevant variables and their anticipated effects the CNSA and FEWS NET are predicting a small improvement in food security conditions in the first quarter of the year (January through March) followed by a slight deterioration in conditions in the second quarter (April through June) As a result specific activities targeting the three components of food security (availability access and utilization) are recommended (see Table 3) Agricultural environmental infrastructure water supply and sanitation programs should focus on labor‐intensive activities as a program implementation strategy Moreover inter‐institutional partnerships program monitoring evaluation and coordination and synergyndashbuilding should be encouraged as a way of improving program efficiency and effectiveness

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 6

Table 3 Recommended activities by program area and institutional stakeholders involved

Program areas Activities Key institutional stakeholders Timely distributions of farm inputs to improve crop yields MARNDR FAO and NGOs

Agriculture and environment

Watershed management to reduce environmental vulnerability focusing on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Rehabilitation of hydroagricultural development infrastructure with the focus on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Recapitalization of farm units (farm implements livestock herds credit)

MARNDR FAO IMF NGOs

Infrastructure Road repairs (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works) particularly repairs of farm-to-market roads to facilitate the marketing of local crops

MARNDR WFP NGOs

Water supply and sanitation

Repair of damaged water supply systems (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works)

SNEP UNICEF NGOs

Maintenance of sewer and drain pipes in cities (repair and flushing with the emphasis on labor-intensive methods) to facilitate rainwater runoff

TPTC IOM NGOs

Nutritional surveillance program MSPP UNICEF WFP NGOs

Health and nutrition Extension and strengthening of school meal programs PNCS donors WFP NGOs

Better targeting of service areas and population groups for therapeutic feeding programs

MSPP UNICEF WHOPAHO NGOs

Fund-raising Raise additional funding to step up response programs in general and mitigation and vulnerability-reducing programs in particular

Donors government

Assistance in strengthening certain ministry and local government structures to facilitate program implementation and improve results

Interested ministries donors United Nations organizations

Coordination and synergy-building

Framing of a contingency plan for the 2009 hurricane season to improve preventive measures and preparedness

DPC CNSA MDE donors United Nations organizations NGOs

Joint monitoring and evaluation to make timely course corrections and draw lessons for the future

CNSA DPC United Nations organizations NGOs and civil society

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

HAITI Food Security Outlook January through July 2009

CNSAFEWS NET Haiti 6

Table 3 Recommended activities by program area and institutional stakeholders involved

Program areas Activities Key institutional stakeholders Timely distributions of farm inputs to improve crop yields MARNDR FAO and NGOs

Agriculture and environment

Watershed management to reduce environmental vulnerability focusing on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Rehabilitation of hydroagricultural development infrastructure with the focus on labor-intensive works

MARNDR donors NGOs

Recapitalization of farm units (farm implements livestock herds credit)

MARNDR FAO IMF NGOs

Infrastructure Road repairs (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works) particularly repairs of farm-to-market roads to facilitate the marketing of local crops

MARNDR WFP NGOs

Water supply and sanitation

Repair of damaged water supply systems (with the emphasis on labor-intensive works)

SNEP UNICEF NGOs

Maintenance of sewer and drain pipes in cities (repair and flushing with the emphasis on labor-intensive methods) to facilitate rainwater runoff

TPTC IOM NGOs

Nutritional surveillance program MSPP UNICEF WFP NGOs

Health and nutrition Extension and strengthening of school meal programs PNCS donors WFP NGOs

Better targeting of service areas and population groups for therapeutic feeding programs

MSPP UNICEF WHOPAHO NGOs

Fund-raising Raise additional funding to step up response programs in general and mitigation and vulnerability-reducing programs in particular

Donors government

Assistance in strengthening certain ministry and local government structures to facilitate program implementation and improve results

Interested ministries donors United Nations organizations

Coordination and synergy-building

Framing of a contingency plan for the 2009 hurricane season to improve preventive measures and preparedness

DPC CNSA MDE donors United Nations organizations NGOs

Joint monitoring and evaluation to make timely course corrections and draw lessons for the future

CNSA DPC United Nations organizations NGOs and civil society

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators local government agencies market information systems UN agencies NGOs and other network and private sector partners

Rice black beans maize and cooking oil are the most important food items for poor and middle income

households in Haiti All cooking oil is imported and rice

imports account for about 80 percent of national needsLarge quantities of beans and maize are also imported but over half of the national needs are domestically produced Rice is consumed by even the poorest households and

imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced

rice Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country

and is located in Port au Prince where one‐third of the

countryrsquos population lives Hinche in the center of the

country is located in one of the most vulnerable areas Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and

Jacmel is located in the southeast a department particularly

exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

ANNEX Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin January 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii