CMP Market And Technology Status - 2002 · October 10, 2002 Agenda Review of 2001 CMP Markets Forecast For CMP Market Segments For 2002-2008 Potential Technology Shifts That Can Impact

October 10, 2002

CMP Market And Technology Status - 2002

Tom Tucker

Laredo Technologies

247 East Many Lakes Drive

Kalispell, Montana 59901

(406) 755-3815

October 10, 2002

Agenda

Review of 2001 CMP Markets

Forecast For CMP Market Segments For 2002-2008

Potential Technology Shifts That Can Impact CMP Markets (And This Forecast)

Review of 2001 US CMP Related Patent Activity

Possible Technologies For Planarizing Mechanically Weak Interconnect Structures

Conclusions

October 10, 2002

1999 Revenues - $1.086 Billion

SpeedFam-IPEC$117 Million - 10.8%

Strasbaugh$26 Million - 2.4%

Lam Research$30 Million - 2.8%

All Others$54 Million - 5.0%

Applied Materials$612 Million - 56.4%Ebara

$247 Million - 22.7%

2000 Revenues - $1.519 Billion

Strasbaugh$10 Million - 0.7%

Lam Research$72 Million - 4.7%

All Others$59 Million - 3.9%

SpeedFam-IPEC$230 Million - 15.1%

Ebara $306 Million - 20.1%

Applied Materials$842 Million - 55.4%

CMP Revenue Market Shares: 1999 - 2001

2001 Revenues - $982.8 Million

Peter Wolters$27.1 Million - 2.8% All Others

$10 Million - 1.0%

Strasbaugh$10.7 Million - 1.1%

Lam Research40.4 Million - 4.1%

SpeedFam-IPEC$76.9 Million - 7.8%

Ebara$230.7 Million - 23.5%

Applied Materials$587 Million - 59.7%

October 10, 2002

Geographic Distribution Of CMP Tool Shipments For Calendar Year 2001

1999 Installed Base - 2653 Machines

ROW4 - 0.1%

Taiwan346 - 13.0%

Singapore76 - 2.9%

Japan609- 23.0%

Europe345 - 13.0%

North America1135 - 42.8%Korea

138 - 5.2%


ROW15 - 0.44%Taiwan

521 - 15.3%

Singapore146 - 4.3%

Europe445 - 13.0%

North America1294 - 38.0%

Korea215 - 6.3%

Japan774 - 22.7%

2001 Shipments - 385 Machines

ROW21 - 5.5%Taiwan

37 - 9.6%

Singapore20 - 5.2%

Korea23 - 6.0%

Japan92 - 23.9%

Europe51 - 13.2%



ROW36 - 0.9%Taiwan

558 - 14.7%

Singapore166 - 4.4%

Korea238 - 6.3%

Japan866 - 22.8% Europe

496 - 13.1%


October 10, 2002


All Others151 - 5.7%

Lam Research12 - 0.5%

Strasbaugh295 - 11.1%

SpeedFam-IPEC1153 - 43.5%

Ebara525 - 19.8%

Applied Materials517 - 19.5%

2001 Shipments - 385 Machines

Peter Wolters9 - 2.3%

All Others5 - 1.3%


Strasbaugh16 - 4.2%


Ebara87 - 22.6%







Ebara674 - 19.8%


CMP Tool Shipments For Calendar Year 2001 By Supplier


Peter Wolters9 - 0.2%





Ebara761 - 20.1%


October 10, 2002

CMP Market Share Trends 1995 - 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year

Re

ve

nu

e M

ark

et

Sh

are

, %

IPEC Strasbaugh SpeedFam SpeedFam-IPEC

Ebara Applied Materials Lam Research Others

October 10, 2002

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Year

Nu

mb

er

Of

Un

its

010020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000

Re

ve

nu

e, $

Mill

ion

s

Tools Spindles Revenue

CMP Market Changes: 1995 - 2001

Transition From Single Spindle To Multiple Spindle UnitsTransition From Standalone Units To Dry-In Dry-Out SystemsIncorporation Of Onboard Or Inline Metrology On CMP SystemsAdvanced Carrier DesignsMore Sophisticated Control SystemsOverbuying in 1998 – 2000

October 10, 2002

CMP Revenue As A Percent Of CAPEX, WFE And Global Semiconductor Revenues (Adjusted)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Pe

rce

nt O

f C

AP

EX

, WF

E

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

Pe

rce

nt

Of

WW

Se

mic

on

du

cto

r R

ev

en

ue

Total Capital Expenditures

Wafer Fab Equipment

October 10, 2002

Global Semiconductor Revenue Trailing Twelve Month Growth Rate And Percent Change In Three Month Revenue Moving Average Vs. The Year Earlier

Comparable Period (Forecast)D

ec

-91

Ma

r-9

2J

un

-92

Se

p-9

2D

ec

-92

Ma

r-9

3J

un

-93

Se

p-9

3D

ec

-93

Ma

r-9

4J

un

-94

Se

p-9

4D

ec

-94

Ma

r-9

5J

un

-95

Se

p-9

5D

ec

-95

Ma

r-9

6J

un

-96

Se

p-9

6D

ec

-96

Ma

r-9

7J

un

-97

Se

p-9

7D

ec

-97

Ma

r-9

8J

un

-98

Se

p-9

8D

ec

-98

Ma

r-9

9J

un

-99

Se

p-9

9D

ec

-99

Ma

r-0

0J

un

-00

Se

p-0

0D

ec

-00

Ma

r-0

1J

un

-01

Se

p-0

1D

ec

-01

Ma

r-0

2J

un

-02

Se

p-0

2D

ec

-02

Ma

r-0

3J

un

-03

Se

p-0

3D

ec

-03

Ma

r-0

4J

un

-04

Se

p-0

4D

ec

-04

Ma

r-0

5J

un

-05

Se

p-0

5D

ec

-05

Ma

r-0

6J

un

-06

Se

p-0

6D

ec

-06

Ma

r-0

7J

un

-07

Se

p-0

7D

ec

-07

Ma

r-0

8J

un

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec

-08

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Year

Red - 3 Month Moving Average vs. A Year EarlierBlue - Trailing 12 Month Rate Of Change

Forecast

Source: WSTS Data

October 10, 2002

Semiconductor Industry Revenues: History And Forecast

50.5 54.6 59.9

77.3

101.9

144.4132.0

125.6

149.4

204.4

136.1

249.6255.9

218.5

250.8

330.9

137.2 139.0

180.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

Year

Re

ven

ue,

$ B

illio

ns

October 10, 2002

CMP Equipment Markets: 1994-2008

63191

307

520638

1086

1519

983857

1299

2193

2021

1537

1717

2584

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Re

ve

nu

e, $

Mill

ion

s

October 10, 2002

CMP Spindle Shipments And Installed Base: 1994-2008(With 200mm Spindle Equivalents)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Sp

ind

le In

stal

led

Bas

e

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

New

Sp

ind

les

Sh

ipp

ed

200mm Equivalent Installed Base

Spindle Installed Base

New Spindles Shipped

200mm Equivalent Spindles Shipped

October 10, 2002

Summary Of CMP Market Segments: 1994 - 2008

Market Segments, $ Millions 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002CMP Equipment 63.0 191.3 307.4 520.1 638.4 1085.7 1518.7 982.8 857.0 200mm Cu CMP - - - 26.2 73.3 143.8 154.0 268.3 239.1 300mm Cu CMP - - - 0.0 0.0 8.9 17.0 105.3 178.2 Total Cu CMP - - - 26.2 73.3 152.7 171.1 373.6 417.3 Cu CMP Percent Of Total - - - 5.0% 11.5% 14.1% 11.3% 38.0% 48.7% Percent 300mm - - - - 0.9% 4.9% 9.9% 27.9% 42.6% 300mm CMP Equipment Revenue - - - - 5.6 53.1 150.0 274.3 364.8Slurry 17.1 39.0 63.7 111.9 160.6 217.1 328.7 330.0 408.1Pads & Fixturing 6.2 15.2 28.3 53.5 81.5 110.9 160.8 151.4 187.7Pad Conditioning Disks 2.2 5.6 10.4 19.9 30.3 41.3 59.9 56.8 70.7Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners 17.7 50.4 76.5 88.0 81.5 101.3 112.5 30.0 24.2CMP Metrology 12.5 37.5 60.4 88.7 107.2 176.6 243.7 141.3 136.7Other Consumables & Ancillaries 8.3 23.7 38.3 61.8 77.0 121.3 169.7 118.5 117.9Total CMP Markets 127.0 362.8 585.0 943.9 1176.6 1854.3 2594.1 1810.7 1802.5

Market Segments, $ Millions 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008CMP Equipment 982.8 857.0 1298.6 2193.1 2020.6 1536.7 1716.9 2583.9 200mm Cu CMP 268.3 239.1 311.4 458.8 365.3 245.9 254.2 345.3 300mm Cu CMP 105.3 178.2 369.6 702.2 704.0 557.5 678.2 1032.0 Total Cu CMP 373.6 417.3 681.0 1161.0 1069.3 803.4 932.4 1377.3 Cu CMP Percent Of Total 0.4 48.7% 52.4% 52.9% 52.9% 52.3% 54.3% 53.3% Percent 300mm 0.3 42.6% 54.1% 60.2% 65.8% 69.5% 72.5% 74.9% 300mm CMP Equipment Revenue 274.3 364.8 702.8 1320.8 1329.1 1067.9 1245.4 1935.8Slurry 330.0 408.1 514.3 653.3 786.1 887.6 966.5 1068.0Pads & Fixturing 151.4 187.7 238.7 288.8 340.5 370.6 389.4 413.2Pad Conditioning Disks 56.8 70.7 90.0 110.0 130.7 142.8 150.3 160.8Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners 30.0 24.2 34.9 55.7 49.6 36.4 40.0 58.4CMP Metrology 141.3 136.7 210.9 364.7 346.9 272.3 313.3 488.4Other Consumables & Ancillaries 118.5 117.9 167.1 256.6 257.2 227.2 250.3 334.1Total CMP Markets 1810.7 1802.5 2554.5 3922.1 3931.5 3473.6 3826.7 5106.7

October 10, 2002

Distribution Of CMP Revenues By Segment

2002 CMP Segment Shares

CMP Equipment47.5%

Slurry22.6%

Pads & Fixturing10.4%

Pad Conditioning Disks3.9%

Other Consumables & Ancillaries

6.5%

CMP Metrology7.6%

Stand-Alone Post-CMP Cleaners

1.3%



1.4%

CMP Metrology9.3%


6.5%



Slurry16.7%

CMP Equipment55.9%


CMP Equipment58.5%

Slurry12.7%




4.3%


6.5%

CMP Metrology9.4%


CMP Equipment54.3%


6.5%

Slurry13.7%




6.9%

CMP Metrology9.1%

October 10, 2002

US CMP Related Patents Issued By Geographic Region Of Assignee

1995 - 308 Patents

North America

192 - 62.3%

Japan84 - 27.3%

Singapore1 - 0.3%

Europe13 - 4.2%

Korea3 - 1.0%

Taiwan15 - 4.9%

1997 - 629 Patents

ROW3 - 0.5%

North America

342 - 54.4%Japan175 - 27.8%

Singapore13 - 2.1%

Europe20 - 3.2%

Korea25 - 4.0%

Taiwan51 - 8.1%

2000 - 1449 Patents

ROW1 - 0.1%

North America

711- 49.1%

Japan261 - 18.0%

Singapore40 - 2.8%

Europe53 - 3.7%

Korea48 - 3.3%

Taiwan335 - 23.1%

2001 - 1890 Patents

Japan370 - 19.3%

Europe90 - 4.7%

Korea81 - 4.2%

Taiwan360 - 18.8%

ROW5 - 0.3%

Singapore77 - 4.0%

North America

935 - 48.7%

October 10, 2002

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Number Of Patents

Micron TechnologiesTSMC Group (Taiwan)

Advanced Micro DevicesUMC Group (Taiwan)

IBMNEC

Chartered SemiconductorApplied Materials

ToshibaAgere Systems/Lucent

SamsungSpeedFam-IPEC

Infineon Technologies/SiemensPhilips Group

Lam ResearchEbara

Hyundai Electronics Mitsubishi Denki

Texas InstrumentsLSI Logic

HitachiMotorola

RodelIntel

Fujitsu

2001 US CMP Related Patents By Company

1890 CMP Related Patents In 2001757 Patents By All Other Companies

October 10, 2002

Distribution Of 2001 CMP Patents

Micron Technologies9.2%

TSMC Group (Taiwan)9.0%

Advanced Micro Devices

8.1%

UMC Group (Taiwan)7.7%

IBM7.7%

All Others40.1%

Samsung2.3%

Agere Systems/Lucent Technologies

2.3%Toshiba

3.0% Applied Materials3.3%

Chartered Semiconductor

3.5%

NEC3.8%

1890 CMP Related Patents In 2001

October 10, 2002

US CMP Related Patents Issued In 2001 By Type Of Assignee

Academia1.3%

Government Lab1.1% Inventors

0.9%

Wafer Suppliers1.8%

Service & Support0.2%

Consumables Supplier 4.6%

Equipment Suppler12.5%

Foundry20.7%

Semiconductor Company

56.8%

October 10, 2002

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Number Of US Patents Issued In 2001

Tools And Major Modules

Endpointing

Pad Conditioning

Control Systems/Automation

CMP Tools

Carriers

Slurry Mixing/Dispensing

Cleaning Tools

Retaining Rings

Waste Management

CMP Related Apparatus Patents

October 10, 2002

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Slurries/Abrasives

Pads

Fixed Abrasives

Cleaning Chemistries

End Effectors

Filters/Brushes

CMP Related Consumables Patents

October 10, 2002

0 50 100 150 200 250 300


Interconnects

Cu Interconnects

Memory/Memory Cells

Flash/NVM

Transistors

Capacitors

STI Process

Damascene Process

Dual Damascene

Contacts/Plugs/Vias

Low k Dielectrics

Gates/Gate Electrodes

Trench Isolation

SOI

CMP Related Process Patents

October 10, 2002

Electrolytic Planarization Patents Issued By Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Year

Nu

mb

er O

f D

ocu

me

nts Issued Patents Published Applications

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Number Of Issued US Patents

ECD/EPOL

EPOL

ECMP

ECMD

ECD

CLUSTER

ECMP/ECMD

SPIN/ETCH

EPOL/ECMD

PECP

Electrolytic Planarization Patents By Category

Electrolytic Processes Used For Planarization

October 10, 2002

Cluster Tool Approach – Copper Metallization Module

ECD

ECD

ECD

CMP

Rinse/Dry

Robot

Load/Lock

Metrology

Passivation Layer

Deposition

Robot

CMP Modules

Cu ECD Modules

Load/Unload

Post-ECDClean

Post-CMPClean

DryingChambers

SurfaceActivationChamber

Applied Materials Concept Ebara Concept

October 10, 2002

Electrolytically Assisted CMP

Kobe Seiko US patent 4839005 issued on June 13, 1989

TSMC US patent 5575706 issued November 19, 1996

Wafer

SlurryPolishing Pad

Conductive Grid

IBM US patent 5807165 issued on September 15, 1998

Micron Technology US patent 6010964 issued on January 4, 2000

October 10, 2002

CMP Tool GenerationsT

oo

l G

ener

atio

n

Time Period

Wa

fer

Siz

e,

mm

Kin

em

ati

cs

Th

rou

gh

pu

t,

wp

h

Ca

rrie

r T

ech

no

log

y

To

ol

Pro

ces

s

Cap

abili

ty

Met

rolo

gy

1 1984-1994

100-200 Rotary 10 Fixed Plate

Dry-In Wet-Out 1 Step CMP + Buff Clean

Single Wafer 10mm Edge Exclusion

Motor Current EPD

2 1993-1999

125-200 Rotary Orbital

Carousel 20

Fixed Plate Back Pressure

Active Retaining Ring

Dry-In Wet-Out 1 Step CMP + Buff Clean

Multiple Wafers 6mm Edge Exclusion

Motor Current EPD In Line Optical Metrology

3 1998-2003

200-300 Rotary Orbital Linear

35 Active Retaining Ring

Membrane Backing

Dry-In Dry-Out Multiple Step+Buff Clean

Multiple Wafers 3mm Edge Exclusion

In Line Optical Metrology Run-To-Run Control In-situ Optical EPD

Acoustic Monitor EPD Chemiluminescence EPD

4 2001- 200-300

Rotary Orbital Linear

Elliptical

50

Active Retaining RingMembrane Backing

Zone Pressure Control


Multiple Wafers ≤2mm Edge Exclusion

In Line Optical Metrology Adaptive Process Control

Coefficient Of Friction EPD In-situ Optical EPD

Acoustic Emission EPD Chemiluminescence EPD

Eddy Current EPD

5 2003- 300

Rotary Orbital Linear

Elliptical

50

Active Retaining RingMembrane Backing

Zone Pressure Control


Multiple Wafers ≤2mm Edge Exclusion

Integration With Electroplating Module And

Rapid Thermal Anneal Electrically Enhanced CMP

In Line Optical Metrology Adaptive Process Control

Coefficient Of Friction EPD In-situ Optical EPD

Acoustic Emission EPD Chemiluminescence EPD

Eddy Current EPD

October 10, 2002

Conclusions

CMP Market Segments Have Been Severely Impacted During The Current Downturn

Consumables Segments And Leading Edge Technology Have Been Impacted By The Downturn To A Lesser Degree

Market Share Rankings Remained Unchanged During 2001

CMP Market Segments Will Grow At The Same Rate As The Overall Equipment Market Going Forward

Growth Rates For Semiconductor Revenues Are Slowing While Technology Becomes More Complex And Challenging

ECMP, ECD or Electropolishing Technologies Have The Potential ToReshape The Equipment And Consumables Markets For Planarization Of Advanced Interconnect Structures

Documents

CMP Market And Technology Status - 2002 · October 10, 2002 Agenda Review of 2001 CMP Markets Forecast For CMP Market Segments For 2002-2008 Potential Technology Shifts That Can Impact