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CM
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Clim
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II Convegno nazionale di II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia OperativaOceanografia Operativa
Ita
lian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nviro
nme
nt,
Land
an
d S
ea
Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR per gli impatti climatici
Antonio Guarnieri
In collaborazione con i partners di progetto
Ministry for the Environment, Land, and Sea
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
• At the World Summit on Sustainable Development of Johannesburg in September 2002, ADRICOSM was accepted as a Partnership in the cluster of oceans/coasts/fisheries.
• The Italian Ministry of Environment and Territory started an ADRICOSM Pilot Project in October 2001 to develop the monitoring and modelling of the Adriatic currents and ecosystem in order to detect changes and mitigate impacts
• Other Projects will start in 2004 that will continue the ADRICOSM developments
• The last of these projects is ADRICOSM-STAR: ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENT (funded by the Italian Ministry for Environment Land and Sea). Dec 2006 – Jun 2010
Genesis of ADRICOSM
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
The Project’s PartnersCMCC (Coordinator)
INGV (Bologna) CIRSA (Bologna)
SGI (Padova) UNITUS (La Tuscia)
CNR-ISAC (Roma) OGS (Trieste)
CNR-ISMAR-BOLOGNA CETI (Podgorica)
CNR-ISMAR-ANCONA IMB (Kotor)
ENEA (La Spezia) HIM (Podgorica)
ISPRA (Roma) IEWE (Tirana)
CLU (Bologna) UB (Serbia)
ERNST & YOUNG (Milano) SEWA (Serbia)
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
MODULE WORKPACKAGE NAME RESPONSIBLE PARTNER
DESCRIPTIVE/
WP1- Assessment of environmental quality in the area of interest CETI
OBSERVATIONAL MODULE
WP2- Data collection program for model calibration/validation and monitoring upgrades
IMB
WP3- Design and implementation of in situ and satellite monitoring system HI-M
MODELING/
WP4- Calibration/validation of hydrological, river basin and oceanographic numerical models
INGV
PREDICTIVE MODULE WP5- Integrated modeling of hydrology, river basin and coastal circulation SGI
WP6- Scenario experiments for long term planning CMCC
INFORMATION SYSTEM MODULE
WP7- Information Management System for the ADRICOSM-STAR data
ENEA
The project working structure
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
The areas of interest
Ulcinj
Boka Kotorska Bay
Bojana River and Skadar Lake Catchment
Coastal Strip
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
• Continue and further develop the ADRICOSM forecasting system for the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas with particular emphasis to the Montenegro coastal area.
• Develop high resolution hydro-meteorological modelling for the large Montenegro area;
• Design and partially implement a monitoring system for the surface water cycle and the water quality in the river and coastal area of Montenegro
• Develop and validate modelling tools for the urban, surface, underground water and coastal currents in the Bojana river catchment and Montenegro coastal area
• Produce downscaled IPCC climate change scenario projections to study impact on the water cycle and on the sediment transport in the Bojana river and the Montenegro coastal area
Project main objectives
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
ADRICOSM-STAR water integrated monitoring and modelling approach
MultidisciplinaryMulti-platformObserving system(satellites, atmospheric and oceanographic stations, river, urban and underground water monitoring)
Numerical models of the atmosphere,
marine and river hydrodynamcs,
underground waterscoupled to water
quality and sediment transport
Climate change scenario simulations
coupled to regional/local
models
input data to environmental managers and policy makers for EMERGENCY management and the PROTECTION of
surface, underground, marine and urban waters
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
The main monitoring results
•1 Water quality station in Bokakotorska Bay•1 Water quality station along the Bojana River•1 Hydrological station (Fraskanjel, with level and flow of the Bojana River)•1 Hydrological and mareographic station (Bar)•3 Meteorological stations (Bar, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj)
Main procurement and new installations
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
The main monitoring resultsIn situ and remote activities• Consolidation of operational satellite monitoring and new operational
• Consolidation of VOS marine parameters and new meteorologiacal monitoring
TSM CDOM K490 Chl-a
Jan 2009, Bari-Durres Temperature
WIND WIND
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
The main monitoring resultsIn situ activities
• New mesoscale and seasonal cruises have been carried on along the coast of Montenegro
Seasonal Surface Temperature
NOV JAN MAY JUN
• HR bathymetric and seismological campaigns carried out in the Bokakotorska bay and along the coastal area
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
Models integration
EBU-POM
MIKE11
AREG
SWAN
Flow at SK Lake
SSH at Bojana
HYPROM
Bojana Flow & sediment transport
T2m,U10m,V10m,CC,Pr,RelHum
ATMOSPHERE
RIVER HYDRAULICS HYDROLOGY
OCEANGRAPHY
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
Atmosphere: scenarios comparison
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Hydro-metereology: validation
Dominio NMM a 12 km
Ulcinj
Ulcinj stationCumulated precipitationYear 2003
Podgorica stationFlow,Year 2003
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Hydro-metereology: future scenarios
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Upstream boundary Upstream boundary conditions:conditions: HYPROM modelled water flow HYPROM modelled water flow time series from Skadar Lake time series from Skadar Lake and Drin River HPP dams flowand Drin River HPP dams flow
Downstream boundary Downstream boundary condition:condition:2003 tide levels from 2003 tide levels from oceanographic modeloceanographic model
Flow from Skadar Lake
Flow from Drin River
Downstream boundary
Fluvial hydraulics: Buna/Bojana river model
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
Fluvial hydraulics:Present and future scenario
Observed Yearly Mean= 646.78 mc/s (years1965-1985)
Simulated Yearly Mean= 482.30 mc/s
OBS climatology (1965-1985) Simulated Mike11
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Bed level Bojana - right branch (start 2020 - end 2030)
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
150 550 950 1350 1750 2150 2550 2950
Distance (m)
Be
d L
ev
el
(m a
.s.l
.)
start 2020 end 2030
Bed level Bojana - left branch (start 2020 - end 2030)
-7.0
-6.5
-6.0
-5.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Distance (m)
Be
d L
ev
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m a
.s.l.
)
start 2020 end 2030
Fluvial hydraulics: future scenario
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Oceanography: comparison of scenariosWINTER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m)
SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m)
Present (2003-2008)
Future (2025-2030)
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Oceanography: time evolution of basin mean surface temperature and salinity
ECMWF
EBU
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Wave model: climate scenario results
Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 years average
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Period
Eve
nts
Sea storms persistance - 5 years average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Period
Ho
urs
Standard Deviation of the sea storm persistance - 5 years average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Period
Ho
urs
Significant wave height of the sea storm peak - 5 years average
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Period
Sig
nif
ican
t w
ave h
eig
ht
(m)
Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 year average
Sea storms duration – 5 year average
Standard deviation of the sea storms duration – 5 year average
Significant wave hight of the sea storm peak – 5 year average
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
ADRICOSM-STAR at work: the January 2010 flood event
• Extreme rain falls from December last year until January 10th 2010, caused serious material damage. Great number of houses in the surrounding area of the Skadar Lake, the municipality of Ulcinj, have been flooded. Some 1100 persons or 245 households had to be evacuated
Buna-Drin junction, Flood of January 2010
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
Buna/Bojana River Water Level (cm) at Fraskanjel
Main Flood Event
ADRICOSM-STAR at work: Water level from Fraskanjel station and from the circulation
model
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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa
CONCLUSIONS• Adricosm-Star project has succesfully buit up a multidisciplinary monitoring/modeling integrated platform in the area of Montenegro
• Climate change impact studies on the water resource have been carried on for the first time at a local regional scale in the Adriatic/Montenegrin area
• This integration constitutes the foundations for the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for:
• water level extremes early warning
• climate change water resources scenarios in the 2020-2030