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Georgia Environmental Protection Division
CMAQ/BenMAP-basedHealth-Benefits Analysis in Support of the Georgia SIPs
for O3 and PM2.5
Amit Marmur
5th Annual CMAS Conference, October 16-18, 2006
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Overview
• Overview of BenMAP
• Summary of O3 and PM2.5 sensitivity analysis
• Quantifying the health benefits from O3 and PM2.5control strategies
• Preliminary findings and future research
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Benefits Analysis with BenMAP:A US-EPA Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program
Modeled (or measured) reductions in
pollutant levels
Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
• Population based GIS
• Concentration-response functions, incident rates and valuation estimates to quantify changes in health endpoints and associated $-benefits
• Can produce estimates at the population grid scale, county, state, or national level
• Measured or modeled AQ data• examine benefits of various control strategies using AQ modeling
• examine benefits of reducing measured ambient concentrations to specific levels
BenMAP Flow Diagram
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Reasons to Assess Benefits
• Evaluate and prioritize various attainment strategy options
• Consider air quality management across multiple pollutants and regions
• Communicate impacts to decision-makers, stakeholders and public
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Health Effects Quantified in BenMAP
+School absence rates
+Worker productivity
+Work loss days
++Asthma attacks
++Acute respiratory symptoms
++Asthma ER visits
++Hospital admissions
+Nonfatal heart attacks
+Chronic Bronchitis
++Mortality
OzonePMHealth endpoint
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Current Mean Values for Health Effects (2000 $)
* - WTP: Willingness to pay
** - COI: Cost of illness
*
**
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Emission Sensitivities• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (µg/m3)
• Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009)• Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009)
• Regional 10% Emission Reductions– Mobile (on-road/non-road), area, non-EGU– NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon (PC)– Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full
& sub), Floyd County
• Point Emission Reductions– Additional SCRs (NOx) and Scrubbers (SO2) at seven
largest Power Plants in Georgia
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Sensitivity of PM2.5 in Atlanta (FS#8/E.Rivers)
0.420.0300.040.054 Scrubbers at Hammond
85.70.250.360.1910% Atlanta PC1.90.010.010.0210% Atlanta SO2
-0.090.00-0.020.0310% Atlanta NOx
0.710.0370.060.052 Scrubbers at Yates0.440.0440.060.091 Scrubbers at Wansley
0.560.1500.040.384 Scrubbers at Scherer1.390.0700.070.112 Scrubbers at McDonough0.630.0980.030.154 Scrubbers at Branch0.500.0910.070.192 Scrubbers at Bowen0.110.010.010.0010% Atlanta VOCs22.50.090.150.0610% Atlanta NH3
Annual (ng/m3/TPD)
Annual (µµµµg/m3)
Winter (µµµµg/m3)
Summer (µµµµg/m3)
Sensitivity
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
0.11
0.03
0.07
0.41
0.42
0.07
0.08
0.95
1.36
Avg response (ppb)
9.92 SCRs at Plant Yates
2.23 SCRs at Plant Hammond
4.62 SCRs at Plant Branch
13.74 SCRs at Plant Scherer
60.42 SCRs at Plant McDonough
2.210% Atlanta VOC (5 counties)
1.510% Atlanta VOC (20 counties)
41.110% Atlanta NOx (5 counties)
35.710% Atlanta NOx (20 counties)
ppt/TPD reduction
Sensitivity
Sensitivity of O3 in Atlanta (Conf. Ave.)
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Preliminary estimate of $ benefits (all GA) from NOx and VOC controls in Atlanta (20 counties)
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
NOx(annual)
NOx(summer)
VOC(annual)
VOC(summer)
$-b
enef
its/T
PD
��������
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� � �
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� �� �
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Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Metrics used in O3 health studies
1.1 (33.3)1-hr maxMinor Restricted Activity Days
1.3 (36.6)8-hr mean; 1-hr maxSchool absences
96.5 (n/a)24-hr mean; 1-hr maxMortality
0.0 (0.1)24-hr mean; 8-hr max; 5-hr mean; 1-hr max
Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory
1.0 (30.0)24-hr mean; 1-hr maxHospital Admissions, Respiratory
% of $-benefits*(% w/o mortality)
O3 metric usedHealth endpoint
* - Hubbell et al., EHP 113, 73-82, 2005 (based on ambient data)
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Reductions in exposure (ppb*person/TPD) to various O3 metrics
Summer only Annual
-10,000
-7,500
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean 1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean
Red
uct
ion
in e
xpos
ure
(ppb
*per
son
/TP
D)
10% ground-level NOx 10% ground level VOCSCRs at McDonough SCRs at Scherer
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Diurnal patterns in O3 concentrations:Summer
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour
O3,
pp
b
Base 10% NOx reduction McDonough SCR-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
Red
cutio
n in
O3
(pp
b)
10% ground-level NOx reduction SCR at Plant McDonough
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Issues to consider (1): Threshold effects
* - Bell et al., The Exposure-Response curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations, EHP 114, 532-536, 2006.
*Percentage increase in daily non-accidental mortality per 10-ppb increase in mean 24-hr O3*
25 ppb
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Issues to consider (2): Nighttime exposure
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
24-h
r av
e
1-hr
max
8-hr
max
rush
-hou
r
day-
time
nigh
t-tim
e
24-h
r av
e
1-hr
max
8-hr
max
rush
-hou
r
day-
time
nigh
t-tim
e
RESP CVD
Ris
k R
atio
(per
IQR
)Ozone (O3) Metric Comparison
�2=12.9
�2=31.0
�2=37.7
�2=25.1
�2=37.0
�2=0.3
�2=6.9
�2=6.4
�2=3.5
�2=5.6�
2=0.6
�2=3.9
* - Darrow et al., International conference on environmental epidemiology and exposure (ISEE/ISEA), Paris, France, 2006.
*
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Issues to consider (3): Model performanceSummer Winter
24-hr O3 mean: R=0.68
8-hr max O3: R=0.88
1-hr max O3: R=0.87
24-hr O3 mean: R=0.66
8-hr max O3: R=0.51
1-hr max O3: R=0.35
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
5/23/0
25/2
5/02
5/27/0
25/2
9/02
5/31/0
26/2
/026/4
/026/6
/026/8
/026/1
0/02
6/12/0
26/1
4/02
6/16/0
26/1
8/02
6/20/0
26/2
2/02
O3
(ppb
)
24hr (mod.) 24hr (obs.) 8hr max (mod.)8hr max (obs.) 1hr max (mod.) 1hr max (obs.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
11/17/0
211
/19/02
11/21/0
211
/23/02
11/25/0
211
/27/02
11/29/0
212
/1/02
12/3/02
12/5/
0212/7
/0212
/9/02
12/11/0
212
/13/02
12/15/0
212
/17/02
O3
(ppb
)
24hr_CMAQ 24hr_JST 8hrmax_CMAQ8hrmax_JST 1hrmax_CMAQ 1hrmax_JST
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
$ benefits from various O3 control scenarios
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
All Georgia
$-be
nefit
s/TP
D
Ground NOx (annual) Ground NOx (25ppb threshold)Ground NOx (summer) Ground NOx (summer, 1-hr metric)Ground VOC (annual) Ground VOC (summer)McDonough (annual) McDonough (25ppb threshold)McDonough (summer) Scherer (annual)Scherer (summer)
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Reductions in exposure to PM2.5
1.0E+00
1.0E+01
1.0E+02
1.0E+03
1.0E+04
1.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.0E+07
Scrubb
ers a
t Bran
ch
Scrubb
ers a
t Bow
en
Scrubb
ers a
t Ham
mond
Scrubb
ers a
t McD
onou
gh
Scrubb
ers a
t Sch
erer
Scrubb
ers a
t Wan
sley
Scrubb
ers a
t Yate
s
10%
grou
nd-le
vel P
C
10%
grou
nd-le
vel N
H3
10%
grou
nd-le
vel N
Ox
10%
grou
nd-le
vel S
O2
10% gr
ound
-leve
l VOC
(ug/m3)*person/TPD (ug/m3)*person
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
PM2.5 exposure and benefits
0.71
0.44
0.42
0.56
1.39
0.63
0.50
0.11
22.5
-0.09
1.9
85.7
Sensitivity1
(ng/m3/TPD)
1.284,7404 Scrubbers at Hammond
78.0324,00010% Atlanta PC
2.9611,70010% Atlanta SO2
0.752,82010% Atlanta NOx
1.535,5702 Scrubbers at Yates1.264,6401 Scrubbers at Wansley
1.625,9504 Scrubbers at Scherer2.077,9702 Scrubbers at McDonough1.224,4204 Scrubbers at Branch1.104,1602 Scrubbers at Bowen0.145,4010% Atlanta VOC23.295,60010% Atlanta NH3
million-$-benefit/TPD2
∆∆∆∆exposure2
(µµµµg/m3)*person/TPDSensitivity
1- calculated for the 3x3 matrix surrounding FS#8/E.Rivers sites
2- state totals
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Another NOx related issue…Effect on PM2.5
Change in PM2.5 due to a 10% NOx reduction in Atlanta (20 county)
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Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Spatial patterns in reductions of PM2.5
10% NOx
10% PCScherer
10% NH3
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Summary, preliminary findings and future research
• A coupled CMAQ/BenMAP model was used to estimate the health benefits of various O3 and PM2.5 control strategies.
• For PM2.5 related benefits, consistency was observed and benefits were reported for all cases examined.
• For O3, the choice of CR function (different O3 metrics) and season/threshold had a substantial impact on the benefits quantification process. Issues:– Ozone season or year-round effects/benefits? Threshold?– Reduced nighttime exposure patterns not accounted for in BenMAP
• Preliminary evidence suggests no (significant) association between nighttime O3 and health outcomes
• Are 24-hr RRs a reflection of peak O3 levels?– Model performance
• Even under the most beneficial O3 control scenario ($340,000/ton), O3 related benefits were still substantially lower (per-ton) than PM2.5 benefits ($140,000-$78,000,000/ton).
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
Amit Marmur, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources
4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354
[email protected] 404-363-7072
Contact Information