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London College Of Business

Subject : Quantitative and Statistical Research

Methods for Business

Assignment : Individual Assignment

Subimtted by : Muhammad Ahsan Riaz

Submitted to : Dr.Hui Wang

College ID: 130479MAR

Class MBA (Finance)

Group : A

Module : CM 706

Session April 2011-April 2012

Submission Date : 08th NOv 2011

Word Count : 3026

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Title

An Evaluation of the Business and Financial Performance of TESCO PLC from 2005 to 2008

Background and research problem definition

I have completed my ACCA in June 2011 attempt and have a keen interest in financial performance

analysis of Business entities over a period of time and to compare them with the performance of other

entities from the same Business sector. Mostly Ratio analysis is used for this kind of analysis,

although we can also use Porters Five force, SWOT analysis, PESTEL etc. We need to apply

consistent polices to make a meaningful comparison & with regard to other entity it’s a hard task to

find the entity of same size in same sort of business, as large entities enjoy economies of scale and can

even use their strong power to buy at cheaper rates etc. I have selected TESCO PLC as it belongs to

U.K retail sector and a large amount of data is easily available online from their own individual

website and from other resources like LSE, Bloomberg Etc. Also Other entities in the same business

like SAINSBURYS, M & S Morrison Etc. are mostly using same accounting principles and their

financial statements are prepared according to same IAS’s which make it easier to make a

comparison. Apart from that I myself have worked in retail sector during last 2-3 years so it has

stimulated my interest in retail sector in particular.

There are some inherent limitations in Ratio Analysis which have posed some problems for me like

other analysts. They are as under

1) The State Of The Economy: (i.e. if the Economy is experiencing recession, boom or

seasonal trade than Year on Year comparison of Ratios will not be possible as there will be lots of

fluctuations in figures. During recession, the ratios are more likely to be disappointing than if the

economy is experiencing a 'prosperous period').

2) The performance of competitors: (i.e. it may effect an entity on both ways, if a

competitor fails, it may result in the sharp increase in entities revenues and vice versa due to

emergence of successful competitor an entity might have to lose its market share and its sales volumes

may decrease considerably in certain particular period.

3) Year On Year Comparison: Consistent application of IAS’s & GAAPS in preparing

financial statements to make a year on year meaningful comparison.E.g, whether Properties are

showed on historical cost or revalued values. Change Of Depreciation methods (Straight Line,

Reducing Balance, Sum Of Digits) used, it will not be possible to assess the performance of the entity

over a certain period of time if these policies are not consistently applied or if entities we want to

compare use different accounting practices.

4) External factors: while calculating Ratios we ignore environment in which the entity operates

& factors which are beyond an entities controls.E.g, Local community, Council rules and

regulations,Legistaltions relating to emission of harmful substances, job losses,redundencies etc. So

Ratios on their own could not be used to make a valid and meaningful evaluation of the performance

of an entity under consideration. Other factors like political, social, legal, economical & ecological

should also be considered before making any decision about the future of the entity.

5) No Definite Formula: There are not any specific formulas to calculate Ratios and there are

different versions being used worldwide. So they will result in different and sometimes conflicting

figures. So if different entities are using different formulas to calculate same ratio, it would not be

possible to make a meaningful comparison on the basis of these Ratios.

6) Reliability Ratios are only as reliable as the data: that has been entered. If the

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management uses creative accounting, they can hide losses and do lots of transactions not being

shown on Balance Sheet(Off Balance Sheet Financing).Enron,Norten Rock are examples of such sort

of unethical practises by the management. There were lots of loop holes in accounting practices and

still there are more than one accounting practises permissible by IASs (Properties on Revalued

Amounts or Historical Cost).

7) Ratios only use quantitative data and don’t consider the skills & experience of

management & employees. Availability of resources such as skilled labour, raw materials, reliable

suppliers, good customers, financial resources etc.

8) Out Of Date Figures Balance Sheet & Income statement shows figures are correct at that

particular time which may be few months old and there may have been considerable change since that

time.

9) Skills Of User / Analyst The Usefulness of Ratios Depends on the Skill of the

User Different users will come up with their own interpretation’s depending upon their own

understand, experience and knowledge. So Ratios should not be considered in isolation in fact they

help to divert our focus and attention towards potentially problematic issues.

Research Questions

How Tesco Plc. has performed financially over the last three years’ time period as compared to its

counterparts.

Research Objectives

To gain in-depth knowledge of financial performance of Tesco Plc. This report is mainly concerned

with the financial performance of Tesco Plc. over three years’ time period from the year ended 2005

to 2008. The aim is to give information to the shareholders, future investors and other stakeholders so

that they can make well informed economic decision on the basis of information provided in this

report. It focuses on the efficiency of Operations of Tesco Plc., its ability to maintain a robust

Business Performance & Out perform its competitor’s. This report will highlight the performance of

Tesco Plc. on the basis of financial and non-financial data such as key performance indicator in retail

industrial benchmark it with its main rival, J Sainsbury plc.

Literature review

“Literature review” is normally a part of every academic dissertation. It is like a “critical review of the

literature” that has already been written on that specific subject. This normally makes the starting

point for a dissertation. If someone is not a master of his/her subject he/she can’t critically evaluate

the work of other writers. It is primarily meant to specify that:

a) the review should not be just a descriptive list of a number of research projects related to the topic;

b) One needs to show that he/she is skilled of thinking critically and has an insight knowledge about

the question raised and is in a position to answer them.

My previous knowledge about the subject has helped me a lot in writing this thesis; I have consulted

mainly BPP & Kaplan F7 & P2 text books along with the past ACCA papers for same papers from

acca website (www.accaglobal.com) to have a in-depth knowledge about the subject under

consideration. Outline of research methods and sampling techniques to be used

The world in which we are living is a global village and financial information about big retail player

like Tesco plc. is easily available from number of different sources. It is essential to identify the

sources for authenticity, correct & up to date information so that reliable conclusion could be drawn

on the basis of information gathered and data analysed.

Use of information technology and internet is almost essential for the implementation of an effective

research, as lots of information is available free of cost in pdf format like audited accounts etc from

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Tesco plc corporate website.

Primary and secondary sources are available through libraries mostly for reference purpose only.

These include text books-e.g. Kaplan ACCA learning material, BPP ACCA study material journals-

e.g. the Economist and newspaper- e.g. Guardian, financial times and internet- e.g. corporate website

of Tesco plc. London stock Exchange website, Electronic Research (IGD, 2008) etc. This research

comes under the assumptions and features of the qualitative research. For data collection and analysis,

I have primarily used information from electric resources. The sources I have used for collection of

relevant and up to date data are as under.

1) Annual Report from year 2005 to year 2008 of Tesco Plc

Annual reports are major source of information for analysis purpose. All business entities are required

by law to produce their annual accounts and financial statements to report to their own shareholders

and other stakeholders. These consists of the group income statement, Balance sheet, Statement of

cash flows along with Chairman’s statement, Statement on corporate governance, statement on

existence and effectiveness of internal controls board minutes Management’s projections and their

view point of significant event that affected the company during reporting period. They are also

annually audited by an independent external auditor to provide independent view of stewardship of

entities assets by the management and to provide assurance on entities financial performance and

financial position.

Annual reports are available and could be directly downloaded from entity’s website

http://ar2010.tescoplc.com/ or www.tescoplc.com

2) Annual Reports from year 2006 to year 2008 of Sainsbury Plc.

We will need Sainsbury Plc.’s annual reports to compare Tesco’s performance against its competitor

in same sector and this is required to benchmark the financial performance of Tesco Plc. in

comparison with Sainsbury plc. The second largest food retailer after Tesco plc. Annual report can be

directly downloaded from Sainsbury’s own website

www.j-sainsbury.co.uk. Or http://www.j-sainsbury.co.uk/investor-centre/

3) Internet (on-line information)

On line data storage and analysing websites like IGD, TNS Global & Financial Times which gives an

easy access to detailed past financial data, graphs charts etc.Press releases by the organisation could

be the source of current & latest information.

I have used following websites extensively for my research and analysis,

http://www.ft.com/world/uk, http://www.tnsglobal.com/,http://www.igd.com/index.asp?id=0,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/supermarkets,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/

,etc...

Secondary Research

a)Books

Reading books written on that particular subject matter during research helps to adopt a balanced

approach and to get in-depth knowledge about the matter under consideration.

I have consulted Kaplan & Bpp text books for F7 Financial Reporting & P2 Advance Financial

Reporting along with CFA volume 3 Financial Reporting and Ratio Analysis to get the in-depth

knowledge about the Ratio Analysis.

b) Library Research

Libraries could be a source of data and information about the subject, I have consulted British Library

and Barking Libraries to get access to the electronic journals and past editions of financial press and

database such as Financial Analysis made me Easy (Fame) which gives information about past

financial data of different organisations to help me compute Ratio Analysis. Library online resource

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has access to database such as Factiva, Verdict Retail Knowledge Centre which contains articles

written by diverse magazines and financial press and that contains analysis of performance of retail

industry and future projections for and future period.

c) Print & Electronic Media

Both print & electronic media could be a source of current financial condition, position and

performance of Business organisations.

1) The limitations of gathering information

Information about financial performance is widely available through print and electronic media but it

is not written solely for the purpose of analysis and research. So it contains lots of irrelevant data. One

should have the ability to differentiate and make judgement about whether the data is relevant and

fulfils the requirements of the report.

Although most of the data is available from Tesco plc. & Sainsbury plc. Websites but it’s one sided

view point and is bound to present a beautiful picture of organisations accounts and may contain

information which is not realistic or not achievable. Reading newspapers, financial press and books

written on that particular subject have provided me insight in to the financial performance of Tesco

plc. But it was a complicated issue to decide which book to consulted and which information is more

reliable than other.

Data analysis techniques to be used

I have mainly used Ratio Analysis but have used other techniques as SWOT analysis PESTEL to

make a valid point and in order to be in a position to make year on year comparison of Tesco plc. And

entity to entity meaningful comparison in U.K retail sector. These were really helpful, thought

provoking and interesting, moreover these techniques are being widely used in business world so they

are not a bookish knowledge only type of analysis but acceptable and highly regarded in practical

market as well.

Data validity and reliability

Most of the data that I have used was taken from Tesco plc. Own corporate website, from their

audited accounts and financial statements. So hopefully its completely reliable. So a well-informed

Economic decision could be made on the basis of calculation’s made using this data.Although there

are certain inherent limitations which should be kept in mind and there are other factors which should

be considered before making a well informed decision.

Ethical issues

while preparing this sort of reports an important issue will always be to differentiate between views

and facts. Sometimes it’s hard to make a distinction. While I was conducting my research, gathering

information and collecting data to a come to a conclusion, I have strictly followed University Of

Wales code of conduct to avoid plagrisem and to produce original and genuine report.

Research contribution

In conducting this research & completing this Thesis I have taken help from friends

Ch.Abdul Majid(ACCA), Aqeel ,Ch.Imran Faisal (ACCA) & Sheraz Mirza for gathering

information,collecting and analysing data. All these guys have helped me whenever &

wherever I have asked them especially in conducting research & information gathering. I am

really thankful to them all for their invaluable contribution towards my thesis. I will like to

particularly appreciate the hard work & hard efforts of Mr.Sheraz Mirza for helping me

complete my thesis. I owe my gratitude to my Fv8 Sis Zaib ,whose prayers are always with

me and have always helped me overcome my deficiencies & to play according to my

strengths.

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Project Plan

My project plan is to analyse the financial data of Tesco Plc. over three years’ time period

and compare it with the performance of other retail chains in the same sector over the same

time period. So that I can come to a conclusion how effectively Tesco have conducted its

operations, how was its past performance, how is it performing now and what are the future

prospects for Tesco Plc. This will help the investors, shareholders and other stakeholders to

make decisions whether to hold, buy or sell their stocks/shares.

The UK grocery retail market was £133.3bn in the year 2007, it had increased by 4% from

2006.Which means that 49 % of retail spending is on food and grocery and groceries account for £

0.128 out of every 1 £ spent. There are total 95585 grocery stores in U.K in total which are divided in

to four categories,

1. Convenience store( e.g. Londis, Co-operative Group, SPAR)

2. Traditional retail and developing convenience store(e.g. Newsagents, grocers, offlicences,& some

forecourts)

3. Supermarkets & superstore(e.g. Tesco, Sainsbury)

4. Alternative channels (e.g. Post offices, Markets, Kiosks, Home-shopping, Door stepdelivery,

Vending)

Tesco Plc. Sainsbury plc.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008

Uk sales (£

m)*

27146 29990 32665 34874 15409 16061 17151 17837

Yer On

Year %age

Change

9.6 10.5 8.9 6.8 4.2 5.5 6.8 4.0

Uk

Operating

Profit

25.9 26.8 27.6 31.4 12.8 13.4 13.8 16.4

UK

Operating

Profit(£m)

1556 1788 2083 2097 325 342 431 535

UK

Operating

Margin(%)

5.7

6.0 6.4 6.01 1.99 2.19 2.5 3.0

Number of

stores

1,779 1,987 1,988 2,115 727 752 788 823

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(UK)

Sale area sq

ft (,000)

24191 25903 27785 29549 16370 16725 17363 17901

Sale density

£/sq ft

1122 1158 1176 1180 941 960 988 996

*Sale excludes VAT, Source: Tesco and Sainsbury Annual Report and Five year summary

In the year 2008 Tesco’s sales rose by 6.01% to £34.87bn as compared to Sainsbury sale which rose

by 3% to £17.83bn despite the recession and economic downturn.. The sale growth was less than the

previous year but was in line with UK Grocery Market year-on-year growth of 6%. (Garner, 2008). Despite less sale growth, both customer numbers and spend per visit increased due to

Customer recognised its action “Every Little Helps”. (Tesco plc., 2008)Tesco operating profit margin

(UK) of 6.4% is well above than Sainsbury operating profit margin, 2.97% which indicates Tesco

control operating cost effectively. In 2008, Tesco margin has lower than previous year with strategy to

lower the price of product, increase sale from low profit margin products and weakening demand in a

number of non-food categories.

By setting 'Fill the gap' strategy, number of UK stores have increased by 19% to 2115 stores from

1779 stores in 2005, giving Tesco 31.4% of UK grocery market share and a presence in every single postcode area in the UK (Tesco plc. 2008).

Total UK sales area has increased by 22% to 29 million sq. ft. within three years from 24 million sq.

ft. in 2005. Expansion has taken mainly in the form of larger out-of-town superstore/hypermarkets and convenience stores in the neighbourhood. Sale Density level has increase by 5% to £1180 per sq.

ft. in 2008 from £112 per sq. ft. in 2004 in line with sale area growth and number of stores. (Tesco

plc. 2008). Online sale through tesco.com and catalogue sale were another factor which drove the sales growth by

growing recent market share in remote place by offering two-hour home delivery and pick-up from

store with the choice of 11,000 online products and 7,000 catalogue products. Improved product

availability and advanced in delivering orders with different charges and slots contribute £1.6bn sale and £124m profit. (Tesco plc. 2008).

Strategy of spending in IT innovation has resulted in increase of sales. Although Initial set up cost are

quite significant but it has brought better shopping experience and customers do recognise its importance such as "one in front" promise and has resulted in attracting more customers.

Tesco has focused on total shopping experience to win customer loyalty and increase their spending’s

per visit by passing lower price to value customer, extending its product range labels such as Finest,

managing on-shelf availability in response to customer demands, improving the different non-food categories offer such as clothing and electrical products, etc.

“Club Card” scheme has helped to collect data about customer needs and demands and to focus its

strategy according to customer needs. Make Tesco has adopted a strategy of customer relationship management which is another factor for increase in Tesco sales. This scheme currently has over 13

million members.

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Appendix Table of Tesco’s Ratio calculation period year 2007 to 2011

Profit & Loss

Year Ended 26 February 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

£ millions

Turnover 60931.0 56910.0 53898.0 47298.0 42641.0

Operating Profit 3811.0 3457.0 3169.0 2791.0 2673.0

Net Interest -333.0 -314.0 -362.0 -63.0 -126.0

Profit Before Tax 3535.0 3176.0 2917.0 2803.0 2653.0

Profit After Tax 2671.0 2336.0 2138.0 2130.0 1881.0

Total Dividend n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Retained Profit / Loss n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Balance Sheet

Year Ended 26 February 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

£ millions

Intangible Assets 4338.0 4177.0 4076.0 2336.0 2045.0

Tangible Assets 24398.0 24203.0 23152.0 19787.0 16976.0

Fixed Investments 1424.0 1015.0 321.0 309.0 322.0

Total Fixed Assets 35337.0 34258.0 32085.0 23864.0 20231.0

Stocks 3162.0 2729.0 2669.0 2430.0 1931.0

Debtors n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Cash at Bank and in Hand 1870.0 2819.0 3509.0 1788.0 1042.0

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Total Assets 47206.0 46023.0 45564.0 30164.0 24807.0

Creditors Amount Within 1 year 26829.0 23928.0 22789.0 8179.0 6598.0

Creditors Amount After 1 year 1956.0 2616.0 1796.0 1202.0 1378.0

Total Liabilities 30583.0 31342.0 32658.0 18262.0 14236.0

Net Assets 16623.0 14681.0 12906.0 11902.0 10571.0

Net Current Assets n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Called Up Share Capital 402.0 399.0 395.0 393.0 397.0

Share Premium Account 4896.0 4801.0 4638.0 4511.0 4376.0

Other Reserves 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

Profit and Loss Account 11197.0 9356.0 7776.0 6871.0 5693.0

Shareholders Funds 16535.0 14596.0 12849.0 11815.0 10506.0

Minority Interests 88.0 85.0 57.0 87.0 65.0

Key Figures

Year Ended 26 February 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

Earnings Per Share Basic (p) 33.10 29.33 27.14 26.95 23.61

Earnings Per Share Diluted (p) 32.94 29.19 26.96 26.61 23.31

Earnings Per Share Adjusted (p) 35.90 31.80 29.06 27.37 22.36

Earnings Per Share Growth (%) 13 9 6 22 10

Total Dividend (p) 14.46 13.05 11.96 10.90 9.64

Operating Margin (%) 6 6 6 6 6

ROCE (%) 16 15 13 17 19

Dividend Cover 2.48 2.44 2.43 2.51 2.32

Dividend Yield 3.60 3.10 3.60 2.70 2.20

Price / Earnings Ratio 11.30 13.20 11.50 14.60 19.90

Dividend Per Share Growth (%) 11 9 10 13 12

Source : http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TSCO

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Appendix:

Ratio analysis formula sheet

I Balance Sheet Ratios:

1. Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities 2. Liquid Ratio = Quick Assets / Quick Liabil

3. Debt Equity Ratio = Long term debts / Shareholders Funds

4. Fixed Assets Ratio = Fixed Assets / Long term funds

II. Revenue Statement Ratios:

5.Gross Profit Ratio = Gross Profit / Net Sales 100

6.Operating Ratio = Operating Cost / Net Sales

7.Net Profit Ratio = Net profit / Net Sales 100

8.Net Operating Profit Ratio = Operating Profit / Net Sales 100

9.Stock Turnover Ratio = Cost of Goods Sold/ Average Stock

III Combined/ Composite Ratios:

10. Return on Capital Employed = NPBIT / Capital Employed 100

11. Return on Proprietors Funds = NPAT / Proprietors Funds 100

12.Return on Equity Share capital = NPAT-Pref.Dividend / Equity share capital

13.Earnings per share = NPAT- Pref. Dividend / No of Equity Shares

14.Dividend / Payout Ratio = Divi. Per Equity share / EPS

15.Divi. Yield Ratio = Divi. Per share / Mkt price per share

16.Price –Earning Ratio = Mkt. Price Per Share / EPS

17.Debt Service Ratio = NPBIT / Interest

18.Creditors Turnover Ratio = Credit Purchase /Average Accounts Payable

19.Debtors Turnover Ratio = Credit Sales / Average Accounts Receivable

20.Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio = Sales / Fixed Assets

21.Total Assets Turnover Ratio = Sales / Total Assets

22.Working Capital Turnover Ratio = Sales / Working Capital

23.Capital Turnover Ratio = Sales/ Capital employed.

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