3
Coverage universe Board Line : (9122)-66505050 Div Yield Perf FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13-15 Cagr FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 1m 3m 1y Autos 51,865 115 12.1 15.6 12.8 11.0 8.0 6.2 3.8 3.1 26.1 26.1 24.7 1.3 1.5 3.0 23.2 16.3 Abhijeet Naik Dir-5060 Tata Motors 390 18,352 48 32.3 42.8 50.2 24.7 12.1 9.1 7.8 5.6 4.2 3.3 2.5 29.1 31.0 27.4 0.3 0.3 4 35 46 O-PF 415 M & M 945 9,312 19 53.1 61.7 61.6 7.7 17.8 15.3 15.3 12.0 10.6 3.8 3.2 24.3 23.5 20.0 1.4 1.6 9 20 2 O-PF 1,010 Bajaj Auto 1,939 8,973 14 105.2 122.9 138.4 14.7 18.4 15.8 14.0 13.9 10.6 7.1 5.8 43.7 40.6 37.8 2.8 3.1 (7) 12 4 SELL 1,950 Maruti 1,663 8,037 18 79.2 95.3 119.3 22.7 21.0 17.5 13.9 10.1 7.9 2.7 2.4 14.2 14.5 15.9 0.8 1.1 10 32 11 BUY 2,000 Hero Motocorp 2,046 6,535 13 106.1 106.3 132.9 11.9 19.3 19.2 15.4 11.3 10.3 8.2 7.3 45.6 40.0 44.2 3.2 3.9 1 8 11 SELL 1,885 Ashok Leyland 15 655 3 0.5 (1.4) (1.0) - 28.4 (11.0) (15.1) 9.6 33.7 0.9 1.0 3.3 (8.7) (6.8) - - (8) 24 (45) O-PF 20 Banks/Financials 122,254 540 8.7 9.9 10.2 8.4 1.5 1.3 16.1 13.7 15.0 2.3 2.6 1.2 22.2 (10.6) Aashish Agarwal Dir-5075 State Bank 1,785 19,534 72 258.5 213.9 280.8 4.2 6.9 8.3 6.4 1.0 0.9 16.0 15.3 11.2 2.3 2.4 3.7 17.5 (15.6) BUY 1,970 ICICI Bank 1,044 19,275 73 72.2 83.5 96.4 15.6 14.5 12.5 10.8 1.8 1.6 11.2 13.1 13.8 2.4 2.8 2.1 30.0 0.9 BUY 1,230 HDFC Bank 653 25,033 42 28.3 34.2 42.0 21.9 23.1 19.1 15.5 4.3 3.7 20.3 20.7 21.6 1.0 1.3 (2.9) 16.2 (4.0) BUY 760 HDFC 807 20,151 50 31.4 36.8 43.4 17.7 25.7 21.9 18.6 5.0 4.5 22.7 22.0 21.6 1.8 2.1 (0.3) 17.7 1.0 BUY 970 Axis Bank 1,116 8,377 82 110.7 121.0 147.8 15.6 10.1 9.2 7.5 1.6 1.4 18.5 16.0 17.1 1.7 2.1 (6.3) 27.2 (13.5) BUY 1,300 Indusind Bank 413 3,459 23 21.4 23.5 29.6 17.5 19.3 17.6 14.0 2.8 2.5 17.2 15.1 16.6 1.0 1.2 (2.9) 19.5 4.7 BUY 530 PNB 526 2,975 18 137.1 106.9 135.3 (0.6) 3.8 4.9 3.9 0.6 0.5 15.7 11.1 12.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 14.6 (30.3) O-PF 525 Power Finance 152 3,218 7 33.5 34.4 39.8 9.0 4.6 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.7 19.7 17.6 17.8 4.5 5.2 21.2 43.8 (16.6) U-PF 124 REC 221 3,493 6 38.7 40.5 46.8 10.0 5.7 5.5 4.7 1.3 1.1 23.7 21.1 20.7 3.7 4.2 18.8 29.1 0.7 U-PF 185 Bank of Baroda 608 4,097 21 106.0 94.3 114.0 3.7 5.7 6.4 5.3 0.8 0.7 15.1 11.9 13.1 3.5 3.5 2.3 32.3 (16.7) O-PF 700 Canara Bank 232 1,644 11 64.8 49.9 62.7 (1.7) 3.6 4.7 3.7 0.4 0.4 12.1 8.6 10.2 5.6 5.6 (0.1) 14.7 (47.0) U-PF 240 IDFC 102 2,464 24 12.1 11.9 13.7 6.1 8.4 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 14.1 12.6 13.1 2.5 2.9 (1.0) 28.4 (37.8) BUY 115 Max India 210 894 1 21.4 3.4 3.6 (58.8) 9.8 61.3 57.7 1.8 1.8 19.0 2.9 3.1 1.1 1.2 14.0 25.0 (11.8) BUY 295 Bank of India 206 1,962 14 47.0 40.9 49.5 2.7 4.4 5.0 4.2 0.5 0.5 12.3 9.9 11.1 4.9 4.9 13.2 49.9 (24.6) U-PF 200 Union Bank 117 1,119 11 37.6 30.1 35.3 (3.2) 3.1 3.9 3.3 0.4 0.4 13.6 10.2 11.2 6.8 6.8 (4.6) 10.1 (49.9) U-PF 116 OBC 188 876 6 45.5 37.1 49.3 4.1 4.1 5.1 3.8 0.4 0.3 10.7 8.2 10.2 4.9 4.9 18.1 45.4 (41.1) SELL 140 Corp. Bank 272 664 1 93.8 64.4 80.2 (7.5) 2.9 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.4 16.1 10.2 12.0 7.0 7.0 0.9 7.8 (33.6) SELL 245 Yes Bank 362 2,088 78 36.6 38.6 45.3 11.3 9.9 9.4 8.0 2.2 1.9 24.8 21.8 21.4 2.0 2.4 1.8 53.5 (16.6) O-PF 400 J&K Bank 1,200 930 0 217.6 225.3 254.0 8.1 5.5 5.3 Na 1.2 1.0 23.6 20.8 20.2 4.3 4.9 (3.2) 10.9 (10.9) BUY 1,420 Cement 22,201 25 11.1 15.7 15.8 12.7 8.3 8.7 2.3 2.1 15.9 14.0 15.5 1.3 1.5 (5.2) 16.2 (11.4) Vivek Maheshwari Dir-5053 UltraTech Cement 1,854 8,130 6 95.9 98.2 127.3 15.2 19.3 18.9 14.6 11.5 11.4 3.3 2.9 18.7 16.4 18.2 0.5 0.5 (4.9) 19.5 (1.3) O-PF 2,175 Ambuja Cements 179 4,414 6 9.3 8.7 11.0 9.0 19.2 20.6 16.2 10.4 11.9 3.1 2.9 16.6 14.5 17.2 2.6 3.1 (7.0) 11.9 (13.2) SELL 170 Grasim 2,542 3,734 4 272.5 292.7 347.0 12.9 9.3 8.7 7.3 4.6 4.7 1.2 1.0 13.6 12.8 13.5 0.9 0.9 (6.9) 13.2 (20.8) BUY 3,500 ACC 1,068 3,209 7 65.7 57.1 75.4 7.1 16.3 18.7 14.2 9.3 10.6 2.7 2.5 16.8 13.8 17.0 2.8 3.3 (6.0) 13.3 (23.2) O-PF 1,300 Shree Cement 4,350 2,424 1 243.3 237.8 265.1 4.4 17.9 18.3 16.4 8.6 8.9 4.2 3.4 27.7 20.6 18.6 0.4 0.5 (1.8) 20.8 (0.5) BUY 4,500 India Cement 59 291 2 6.1 4.5 5.5 (5.0) 9.7 13.2 10.7 7.4 8.3 0.4 0.4 4.6 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.4 24.6 25.7 (30.3) O-PF 55 Cap goods & infra. 33,541 102 (11.4) 11.5 15.3 15.5 9.8 12.5 2.1 1.9 18.2 12.8 11.7 1.8 1.9 7.1 37.0 (13.3) Rajesh Panjwani Dir-852 26008271 BHEL 148 5,785 20 27.0 16.7 13.2 (30.2) 5.5 8.9 11.2 3.5 6.4 1.2 1.1 23.7 12.9 9.6 3.7 3.7 7.6 32.8 (34.0) SELL 130 Mahesh Nandurkar, CFA Dir-5079 L&T 1,005 14,880 39 53.7 50.6 56.0 2.0 18.7 19.8 18.0 14.6 15.5 2.7 2.5 15.7 13.2 13.3 1.2 1.3 6.0 42.4 (7.2) O-PF 910 Abhishek Tyagi Dir-5055 Crompton 120 1,227 4 (0.6) 5.3 7.4 NA (212.3) 22.7 16.1 23.3 13.5 2.1 1.7 (1.0) 8.3 10.3 1.5 1.5 24.6 49.3 2.8 SELL 88 Thermax 639 1,218 0 26.9 25.2 31.3 7.9 23.8 25.4 20.4 15.7 14.6 4.1 3.7 18.3 15.2 16.9 1.1 1.1 2.9 14.3 12.1 SELL 500 Normalized EPS RoAE P/B Target Price Rec EV/ Ebitda Name Price (Rs) Mkt Cap (US$m) 3m Avg T/O (US$m) P/E

CLSA Valuation Matrix 20131127

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

matrix

Citation preview

Page 1: CLSA Valuation Matrix 20131127

Coverage universe Board Line : (9122)-66505050

Div Yield Perf

FY13 FY14 FY15FY13-15

CagrFY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 1m 3m 1y

Autos 51,865 115 12.1 15.6 12.8 11.0 8.0 6.2 3.8 3.1 26.1 26.1 24.7 1.3 1.5 3.0 23.2 16.3

Abhijeet Naik Dir-5060

Tata Motors 390 18,352 48 32.3 42.8 50.2 24.7 12.1 9.1 7.8 5.6 4.2 3.3 2.5 29.1 31.0 27.4 0.3 0.3 4 35 46 O-PF 415

M & M 945 9,312 19 53.1 61.7 61.6 7.7 17.8 15.3 15.3 12.0 10.6 3.8 3.2 24.3 23.5 20.0 1.4 1.6 9 20 2 O-PF 1,010

Bajaj Auto 1,939 8,973 14 105.2 122.9 138.4 14.7 18.4 15.8 14.0 13.9 10.6 7.1 5.8 43.7 40.6 37.8 2.8 3.1 (7) 12 4 SELL 1,950

Maruti 1,663 8,037 18 79.2 95.3 119.3 22.7 21.0 17.5 13.9 10.1 7.9 2.7 2.4 14.2 14.5 15.9 0.8 1.1 10 32 11 BUY 2,000

Hero Motocorp 2,046 6,535 13 106.1 106.3 132.9 11.9 19.3 19.2 15.4 11.3 10.3 8.2 7.3 45.6 40.0 44.2 3.2 3.9 1 8 11 SELL 1,885

Ashok Leyland 15 655 3 0.5 (1.4) (1.0) - 28.4 (11.0) (15.1) 9.6 33.7 0.9 1.0 3.3 (8.7) (6.8) - - (8) 24 (45) O-PF 20

Banks/Financials 122,254 540 8.7 9.9 10.2 8.4 1.5 1.3 16.1 13.7 15.0 2.3 2.6 1.2 22.2 (10.6)

Aashish Agarwal Dir-5075

State Bank 1,785 19,534 72 258.5 213.9 280.8 4.2 6.9 8.3 6.4 1.0 0.9 16.0 15.3 11.2 2.3 2.4 3.7 17.5 (15.6) BUY 1,970

ICICI Bank 1,044 19,275 73 72.2 83.5 96.4 15.6 14.5 12.5 10.8 1.8 1.6 11.2 13.1 13.8 2.4 2.8 2.1 30.0 0.9 BUY 1,230

HDFC Bank 653 25,033 42 28.3 34.2 42.0 21.9 23.1 19.1 15.5 4.3 3.7 20.3 20.7 21.6 1.0 1.3 (2.9) 16.2 (4.0) BUY 760

HDFC 807 20,151 50 31.4 36.8 43.4 17.7 25.7 21.9 18.6 5.0 4.5 22.7 22.0 21.6 1.8 2.1 (0.3) 17.7 1.0 BUY 970

Axis Bank 1,116 8,377 82 110.7 121.0 147.8 15.6 10.1 9.2 7.5 1.6 1.4 18.5 16.0 17.1 1.7 2.1 (6.3) 27.2 (13.5) BUY 1,300

Indusind Bank 413 3,459 23 21.4 23.5 29.6 17.5 19.3 17.6 14.0 2.8 2.5 17.2 15.1 16.6 1.0 1.2 (2.9) 19.5 4.7 BUY 530

PNB 526 2,975 18 137.1 106.9 135.3 (0.6) 3.8 4.9 3.9 0.6 0.5 15.7 11.1 12.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 14.6 (30.3) O-PF 525

Power Finance 152 3,218 7 33.5 34.4 39.8 9.0 4.6 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.7 19.7 17.6 17.8 4.5 5.2 21.2 43.8 (16.6) U-PF 124

REC 221 3,493 6 38.7 40.5 46.8 10.0 5.7 5.5 4.7 1.3 1.1 23.7 21.1 20.7 3.7 4.2 18.8 29.1 0.7 U-PF 185

Bank of Baroda 608 4,097 21 106.0 94.3 114.0 3.7 5.7 6.4 5.3 0.8 0.7 15.1 11.9 13.1 3.5 3.5 2.3 32.3 (16.7) O-PF 700

Canara Bank 232 1,644 11 64.8 49.9 62.7 (1.7) 3.6 4.7 3.7 0.4 0.4 12.1 8.6 10.2 5.6 5.6 (0.1) 14.7 (47.0) U-PF 240

IDFC 102 2,464 24 12.1 11.9 13.7 6.1 8.4 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 14.1 12.6 13.1 2.5 2.9 (1.0) 28.4 (37.8) BUY 115

Max India 210 894 1 21.4 3.4 3.6 (58.8) 9.8 61.3 57.7 1.8 1.8 19.0 2.9 3.1 1.1 1.2 14.0 25.0 (11.8) BUY 295

Bank of India 206 1,962 14 47.0 40.9 49.5 2.7 4.4 5.0 4.2 0.5 0.5 12.3 9.9 11.1 4.9 4.9 13.2 49.9 (24.6) U-PF 200

Union Bank 117 1,119 11 37.6 30.1 35.3 (3.2) 3.1 3.9 3.3 0.4 0.4 13.6 10.2 11.2 6.8 6.8 (4.6) 10.1 (49.9) U-PF 116

OBC 188 876 6 45.5 37.1 49.3 4.1 4.1 5.1 3.8 0.4 0.3 10.7 8.2 10.2 4.9 4.9 18.1 45.4 (41.1) SELL 140

Corp. Bank 272 664 1 93.8 64.4 80.2 (7.5) 2.9 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.4 16.1 10.2 12.0 7.0 7.0 0.9 7.8 (33.6) SELL 245

Yes Bank 362 2,088 78 36.6 38.6 45.3 11.3 9.9 9.4 8.0 2.2 1.9 24.8 21.8 21.4 2.0 2.4 1.8 53.5 (16.6) O-PF 400

J&K Bank 1,200 930 0 217.6 225.3 254.0 8.1 5.5 5.3 Na 1.2 1.0 23.6 20.8 20.2 4.3 4.9 (3.2) 10.9 (10.9) BUY 1,420

Cement 22,201 25 11.1 15.7 15.8 12.7 8.3 8.7 2.3 2.1 15.9 14.0 15.5 1.3 1.5 (5.2) 16.2 (11.4)

Vivek Maheshwari Dir-5053

UltraTech Cement 1,854 8,130 6 95.9 98.2 127.3 15.2 19.3 18.9 14.6 11.5 11.4 3.3 2.9 18.7 16.4 18.2 0.5 0.5 (4.9) 19.5 (1.3) O-PF 2,175

Ambuja Cements 179 4,414 6 9.3 8.7 11.0 9.0 19.2 20.6 16.2 10.4 11.9 3.1 2.9 16.6 14.5 17.2 2.6 3.1 (7.0) 11.9 (13.2) SELL 170

Grasim 2,542 3,734 4 272.5 292.7 347.0 12.9 9.3 8.7 7.3 4.6 4.7 1.2 1.0 13.6 12.8 13.5 0.9 0.9 (6.9) 13.2 (20.8) BUY 3,500

ACC 1,068 3,209 7 65.7 57.1 75.4 7.1 16.3 18.7 14.2 9.3 10.6 2.7 2.5 16.8 13.8 17.0 2.8 3.3 (6.0) 13.3 (23.2) O-PF 1,300

Shree Cement 4,350 2,424 1 243.3 237.8 265.1 4.4 17.9 18.3 16.4 8.6 8.9 4.2 3.4 27.7 20.6 18.6 0.4 0.5 (1.8) 20.8 (0.5) BUY 4,500

India Cement 59 291 2 6.1 4.5 5.5 (5.0) 9.7 13.2 10.7 7.4 8.3 0.4 0.4 4.6 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.4 24.6 25.7 (30.3) O-PF 55

Cap goods & infra. 33,541 102 (11.4) 11.5 15.3 15.5 9.8 12.5 2.1 1.9 18.2 12.8 11.7 1.8 1.9 7.1 37.0 (13.3)

Rajesh Panjwani Dir-852 26008271

BHEL 148 5,785 20 27.0 16.7 13.2 (30.2) 5.5 8.9 11.2 3.5 6.4 1.2 1.1 23.7 12.9 9.6 3.7 3.7 7.6 32.8 (34.0) SELL 130

Mahesh Nandurkar, CFA Dir-5079

L&T 1,005 14,880 39 53.7 50.6 56.0 2.0 18.7 19.8 18.0 14.6 15.5 2.7 2.5 15.7 13.2 13.3 1.2 1.3 6.0 42.4 (7.2) O-PF 910

Abhishek Tyagi Dir-5055

Crompton 120 1,227 4 (0.6) 5.3 7.4 NA (212.3) 22.7 16.1 23.3 13.5 2.1 1.7 (1.0) 8.3 10.3 1.5 1.5 24.6 49.3 2.8 SELL 88

Thermax 639 1,218 0 26.9 25.2 31.3 7.9 23.8 25.4 20.4 15.7 14.6 4.1 3.7 18.3 15.2 16.9 1.1 1.1 2.9 14.3 12.1 SELL 500

Normalized EPS RoAEP/BTarget

PriceRec

EV/ Ebitda

Name Price

(Rs)

Mkt Cap

(US$m)

3m Avg

T/O

(US$m)

P/E

Page 2: CLSA Valuation Matrix 20131127

Coverage universe Board Line : (9122)-66505050

Div Yield Perf

FY13 FY14 FY15FY13-15

CagrFY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 1m 3m 1y

Normalized EPS RoAEP/BTarget

PriceRec

EV/ Ebitda

Name Price

(Rs)

Mkt Cap

(US$m)

3m Avg

T/O

(US$m)

P/E

Consumer 106,750 149 19.9 40.3 33.8 28.0 28.1 23.6 14.1 11.7 37.8 37.8 38.3 1.6 1.9 (5.3) 6.1 8.5

Vivek Maheshwari Dir-5053

ITC 311 39,426 41.1 9.4 10.9 12.9 17.0 32.9 28.6 24.1 22.9 19.6 11.0 9.9 36.1 36.5 38.7 2.2 2.4 (8.6) 4.3 5.6 BUY 405

HUL 589 20,365 15.2 15.5 17.1 18.3 8.7 38.0 34.5 32.2 43.5 29.5 55.5 33.3 108.1 121.0 93.9 2.0 2.1 (0.9) (1.2) 8.7 SELL 520

Nestle India 5,299 8,172 4.2 116.9 131.3 159.1 16.7 45.3 40.3 33.3 27.4 23.6 26.4 20.8 67.4 57.6 58.0 1.2 1.9 (4.2) 12.7 14.7 O-PF 5,850

Asian Paints 507 7,775 10.6 11.6 13.1 16.1 17.9 43.8 38.8 31.5 27.6 23.9 14.4 12.1 36.2 33.9 35.1 1.1 1.4 (1.4) 23.6 22.9 U-PF 505

United Spirits 2,588 6,017 43.3 10.4 34.0 58.0 136.5 249.6 76.2 44.6 37.4 33.0 8.6 4.8 3.1 8.1 10.2 0.1 0.1 (1.5) 22.0 24.8 SELL 2,100

GSK Consumers 4,399 2,959 0.9 77.9 39.3 154.3 40.7 56.5 112.0 28.5 49.9 107.3 18.1 43.5 29.5 22.9 59.0 0.4 1.5 (3.1) 10.1 19.5 SELL 4,275

Godrej Consumer 861 4,685 2.8 20.4 23.4 28.5 18.2 42.3 36.7 30.2 31.4 26.3 8.8 7.6 22.7 22.2 23.1 0.7 0.9 3.5 6.8 21.0 U-PF 850

Colgate 1,246 2,711 3.1 36.5 35.0 39.1 3.4 34.1 35.6 31.9 28.5 27.7 34.6 29.4 107.4 89.4 88.2 2.2 2.4 (2.6) 2.7 (12.6) SELL 1,100

Dabur 165 4,607 4.8 4.4 5.3 6.3 19.7 37.5 31.2 26.2 28.9 23.5 13.6 10.7 40.0 38.4 36.5 1.1 1.4 (9.6) 5.2 32.8 O-PF 190

Marico 207 2,136 1.4 6.0 7.3 8.5 19.7 34.8 28.5 24.3 22.5 19.2 6.7 8.3 24.6 26.1 30.2 0.7 0.8 (2.0) - (4.0) BUY 252

Titan 225 3,188 8.7 8.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 27.5 24.8 21.7 18.6 18.0 10.1 7.9 42.5 35.9 32.5 1.1 1.2 (8.0) 1.3 (26.0) SELL 245

Jubilant 1,260 1,318 5.9 21.0 22.1 30.5 20.4 59.8 57.0 41.3 33.1 28.8 18.9 14.2 37.3 28.4 29.8 - - 10.8 18.3 0.8 O-PF 1,275

Metals & Mining 52,742 113 12.7 9.8 9.5 7.8 6.1 5.8 0.8 0.7 8.5 8.3 9.3 1.5 1.6 107.2 157.6 104.6

Abhijeet Naik Dir-5060

Coal India 263 26,578 13 27.5 26.0 28.9 2.5 9.6 10.1 9.1 5.8 5.3 3.4 3.0 39.0 31.8 31.2 5.2 5.8 (5.7) 1.1 Na BUY 340

SAIL 66 4,367 5 5.3 5.0 5.8 5.0 12.6 13.2 11.4 9.8 11.5 0.7 0.6 5.4 4.9 5.5 3.0 3.0 10.3 46.7 (15.9) SELL 45

Tata Steel 392 6,086 41 3.4 31.0 30.9 200.7 114.5 12.6 12.7 7.8 6.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 8.5 7.9 2.6 2.6 21.7 43.9 4.2 SELL 250

Hindalco 118 3,912 18 15.5 10.5 12.9 (8.7) 7.6 11.2 9.2 8.9 9.1 0.7 0.6 9.5 5.9 6.7 1.2 1.2 8.5 19.5 5.3 SELL 95

Sesa Sterlite 176 8,356 33 33.6 32.8 38.2 6.6 5.2 5.4 4.6 3.4 2.9 0.7 0.6 15.0 12.8 13.1 0.3 0.3 (12.9) 4.7 2.2 SELL 145

JSW Steel 891 3,443 15 43.2 12.1 71.0 28.2 20.6 73.7 12.6 7.0 7.0 1.2 1.2 5.6 1.6 8.9 1.1 1.4 4.7 71.4 20.9 SELL 630

Oil & Gas 118,720 113 12.8 10.1 9.8 7.9 5.5 5.4 1.4 1.3 14.5 13.7 15.2 2.3 2.6 (1.6) 6.8 3.8

Vikash Jain Dir-5015

Reliance Ind. 841 43,479 48 64.4 69.0 84.6 14.5 13.1 12.2 9.9 8.8 7.7 1.5 1.4 11.9 11.7 13.0 1.1 1.2 (5.2) 4.7 6.9 O-PF 1,000

ONGC 287 39,298 17 28.3 29.6 38.9 17.2 10.1 9.7 7.4 4.1 3.5 1.6 1.5 16.8 15.7 18.4 3.1 3.5 1.1 10.7 15.0 BUY 360

IOC 201 7,806 2 18.3 22.3 33.6 35.4 11.0 9.0 6.0 6.3 7.9 0.8 0.7 7.2 8.3 11.7 2.5 4.0 0.9 (3.4) (22.8) O-PF 225

Gail 329 6,674 6 31.7 33.2 32.4 1.0 10.4 9.9 10.2 6.5 7.3 1.7 1.5 17.5 16.4 14.4 2.7 2.7 (4.3) 12.2 (3.2) O-PF 380

Cairn India 324 9,909 15 63.2 64.0 65.7 2.0 5.1 5.1 4.9 3.5 2.9 1.3 1.1 25.1 23.0 19.6 3.7 3.7 3.3 5.0 (1.1) BUY 425

Oil India 463 4,452 3 59.7 55.3 69.7 8.0 7.8 8.4 6.6 3.1 3.2 1.4 1.3 19.4 16.4 18.4 3.7 4.5 1.8 4.4 0.9 BUY 600

BPCL 325 3,757 10 26.0 17.3 24.7 (2.5) 12.5 18.7 13.1 4.8 6.4 1.4 1.3 11.5 7.3 9.7 0.9 1.2 (6.9) 12.0 (1.1) BUY 425

HPCL 204 1,105 5 26.7 17.3 22.6 (7.9) 7.6 11.8 9.0 4.0 8.1 0.5 0.5 6.7 4.2 5.4 2.9 4.0 6.6 14.5 (26.4) U-PF 210

Petronet LNG 122 1,462 2 15.3 10.4 12.5 (9.8) 8.0 11.7 9.8 5.6 7.5 2.1 1.8 28.8 16.6 17.8 2.7 2.7 (2.8) (2.2) (24.1) BUY 160

Pharmaceuticals 51,521 97 22.3 27.5 23.5 18.4 19.1 16.1 6.0 5.2 24.0 23.7 25.6 0.9 1.1 (1.4) 11.8 29.9

Hemant Bakhru Dir-5063

Sun Pharma 573 18,980 18 17.2 23.4 27.0 25.2 33.3 24.5 21.2 23.6 17.3 7.9 7.2 26.2 30.6 29.5 0.5 0.6 (6.2) 15.3 63.7 BUY 730

Dr Reddy's 2,411 6,558 11 98.8 118.4 128.9 14.2 24.4 20.4 18.7 20.3 15.9 5.6 4.5 25.7 24.6 22.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 11.3 34.9 O-PF 2,825

Cipla 386 4,960 9 19.2 20.6 23.0 9.3 20.1 18.8 16.8 14.8 14.4 3.4 3.0 18.5 17.0 16.5 0.7 0.8 (7.1) (2.6) (1.2) O-PF 470

Ranbaxy 421 2,848 31 13.1 2.6 43.8 NA 32.1 162.7 9.6 12.7 15.7 4.5 4.5 15.5 2.8 40.1 0.6 2.3 6.5 11.4 (16.4) O-PF 450

Glaxosmithkline 2,396 3,247 1 68.4 79.8 98.4 19.9 35.0 30.0 24.3 23.3 23.2 10.0 9.3 29.0 32.0 36.4 2.6 3.1 (1.0) 6.2 16.9 SELL 2,130

Lupin Ltd 865 6,203 13 29.3 37.3 44.0 22.5 29.5 23.2 19.7 18.8 15.1 7.4 5.9 28.5 28.3 26.6 0.7 0.9 (2.7) 14.3 50.6 BUY 1,075

Cadila Healthcare 743 2,432 2 31.9 33.7 39.1 10.6 23.3 22.0 19.0 17.5 19.2 5.2 4.4 23.7 21.6 21.3 1.0 1.2 11.8 13.2 (9.4) O-PF 765

Torrent Pharma 466 1,262 1 25.6 29.6 34.1 15.5 18.2 15.7 13.7 14.6 13.0 5.5 4.4 33.1 31.4 29.2 1.6 1.8 12.7 15.7 43.5 BUY 575

Divis Laboratories 1,163 2,469 4 45.4 52.5 62.6 17.5 25.6 22.2 18.6 17.9 15.7 6.2 5.2 26.0 25.5 25.6 1.5 1.7 19.3 23.8 (1.2) N-R Na

Biocon Ltd 372 1,191 3 25.4 20.2 23.1 (4.7) 14.6 18.5 16.1 13.1 11.2 2.8 2.5 20.5 14.3 15.0 2.0 2.3 11.9 9.6 33.2 O-PF 405

Ipca Laboratories 679 1,370 2 23.7 33.9 45.8 39.0 28.7 20.0 14.8 16.8 12.2 5.5 4.5 21.3 24.7 26.7 0.7 0.7 (1.6) 8.3 50.1 O-PF 800

Page 3: CLSA Valuation Matrix 20131127

Coverage universe Board Line : (9122)-66505050

Div Yield Perf

FY13 FY14 FY15FY13-15

CagrFY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 1m 3m 1y

Normalized EPS RoAEP/BTarget

PriceRec

EV/ Ebitda

Name Price

(Rs)

Mkt Cap

(US$m)

3m Avg

T/O

(US$m)

P/E

Power 41,476 40 3.8 10.5 11.7 10.2 10.1 9.1 1.4 1.2 12.8 10.6 11.5 2.7 3.0 0.3 12.8 (17.8)

Rajesh Panjwani Dir-852 26008271

NTPC 149 19,619 9 15.3 13.0 12.9 (8.1) 9.7 11.4 11.5 10.8 9.7 1.5 1.4 16.4 12.9 12.0 3.4 3.7 2.4 20.7 (5.3) O-PF 155

Abhishek Tyagi Dir-5055

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd 250 3,740 10 35.2 28.4 31.1 (6.0) 7.1 8.8 8.0 7.3 8.3 1.1 1.0 16.8 11.9 11.6 0.6 0.6 4.9 8.7 (34.2) U-PF 250

NHPC 18 3,502 2 2.0 1.9 2.1 0.9 8.8 9.5 8.6 8.0 6.8 0.7 0.7 8.5 7.4 7.9 3.9 4.2 (3.3) 8.5 (23.9) O-PF 20

PowerGrid 94 6,980 7 9.1 9.2 10.7 8.2 10.3 10.2 8.8 10.1 8.8 1.7 1.3 17.0 15.8 15.3 3.1 3.2 (5.9) (1.5) (20.5) BUY 122

Tata Power 78 2,948 5 4.8 3.4 4.5 (3.3) 16.3 23.0 17.4 8.0 7.7 1.7 1.6 10.3 7.2 8.8 1.5 1.5 (3.0) 4.3 (24.9) O-PF 85

Adani Power 35 1,599 2 (9.7) (7.1) 1.1 NA NA (4.9) 31.0 51.5 18.3 2.3 2.1 (44.9) (45.2) 6.5 - - 4.0 (0.4) (30.2) SELL 25

JPVL 17 818 2 1.2 1.4 2.3 NA NA 12.4 7.5 14.5 12.1 0.8 0.8 5.9 6.2 9.9 - - (4.7) 48.1 (54.0) BUY 30

JSW Energy Ltd 49 1,275 1 6.7 5.9 5.7 (7.7) 7.2 8.2 8.5 6.4 5.7 1.3 1.1 18.5 14.8 12.9 2.9 3.3 5.0 28.9 (20.4) O-PF 51

CESC 386 772 1 49.2 47.0 48.6 (0.6) 7.8 8.2 7.9 6.4 6.0 1.0 0.9 13.8 11.9 11.2 1.8 1.8 11.7 29.1 31.5 U-PF 385

Software 186,962 476 12.9 23.2 18.2 16.0 16.6 12.4 6.3 5.1 29.6 31.1 28.8 1.6 1.9 0.2 8.9 37.5

Nimish Joshi Dir-5054

TCS 1,994 62,467 49 71.2 93.5 106.4 22.2 28.0 21.3 18.7 20.7 14.8 9.5 7.4 37.9 39.2 35.4 1.8 2.1 (3.6) 8.4 53.9 O-PF 2,300

Infosys 3,316 30,461 63 164.8 184.0 217.2 14.8 20.1 18.0 15.3 14.4 12.0 4.8 4.0 25.7 24.2 24.2 1.7 2.3 (0.5) 8.5 34.2 O-PF 3,600

Accenture Ltd (US$) 77 52,427 236 4.2 4.4 5.5 14.8 18.6 17.7 14.1 10.5 9.9 11.2 9.4 67.7 59.0 61.7 1.6 1.6 5.1 7.1 14.9 O-PF 84

Tech Mahindra 1,720 6,394 35 84.5 125.6 129.8 24.0 20.4 13.7 13.2 12.0 8.4 5.8 4.1 35.9 35.2 27.0 0.2 0.2 11.6 26.2 92.3 U-PF 1,600

Wipro 475 18,728 25 24.9 31.0 33.7 16.3 19.1 15.3 14.1 14.0 11.0 4.1 3.4 21.6 24.4 22.2 1.7 2.1 (1.3) 4.4 40.5 U-PF 515

HCL Tech. 1,060 11,840 24 52.0 76.8 90.5 32.0 20.4 13.8 11.7 13.3 9.0 5.7 4.5 31.6 36.7 34.3 1.3 1.4 (1.8) 11.8 64.8 O-PF 1,225

InfoEdge 463 809 1 5.1 5.9 7.1 18.7 91.4 78.2 64.8 38.4 29.1 8.3 6.9 19.5 19.3 19.4 0.0 0.0 15.2 56.7 28.6 O-PF 375

eClerx 1,139 548 1 58.7 87.9 95.7 27.7 19.4 13.0 11.9 12.4 8.4 7.8 5.8 43.9 49.9 41.1 2.6 3.1 16.2 44.8 56.8 O-PF 1,050

Telecom 39,448 70 50.7 31.8 25.6 9.6 8.0 2.1 1.9 4.3 6.4 7.3 0.5 0.5 (2.9) 13.8 38.4

Deepti Chaturvedi Dir-5066

Bharti 327 20,913 27 6.0 9.4 12.6 44.9 54.6 34.8 26.0 8.5 7.3 2.6 2.2 4.5 6.8 8.1 0.3 0.3 (4.8) 11.3 0.1 U-PF 315

Reliance Communications 135 4,465 26 3.3 6.3 6.7 43.9 41.5 21.6 20.0 10.4 9.4 0.8 0.8 1.9 3.7 3.9 - - (6.7) 20.9 94.6 SELL 101

Idea Cellular 174 9,217 16 3.1 4.7 5.6 35.9 56.9 37.4 30.8 12.0 8.9 4.0 3.7 7.4 10.3 11.4 0.3 0.3 1.1 11.9 73.5 SELL 130

Bharti Infratel 161 4,853 1 5.3 6.2 7.1 15.9 30.3 26.0 22.5 8.8 7.8 1.8 1.8 6.4 6.8 7.7 1.9 2.2 1.7 22.9 - U-PF 152

Media 8,615 21 15.0 24.8 22.2 20.9 14.0 11.9 5.3 4.8 20.3 20.5 21.7 1.7 1.9 (6.3) 6.8 0.8

Deepti Chaturvedi Dir-5066

Sun TV 376 2,367 5 18.0 19.4 22.2 11.1 20.9 19.4 16.9 10.0 8.8 5.1 4.7 25.9 25.2 25.9 3.1 3.3 (11.6) (0.1) (3.3) O-PF 455

Zee Entertainment 251 3,862 11 7.5 8.9 9.7 13.3 33.3 28.4 26.0 24.7 20.2 6.2 5.4 19.8 20.3 19.5 1.0 1.2 (6.1) 10.4 25.5 BUY 323

Dish TV 52 879 4 (1.2) (0.6) 0.7 NA (43.8) (83.7) 73.6 11.7 10.0 (35.3) (12.3) 100.6 21.8 (18.3) - - 1.4 22.3 (33.6) BUY 63

Jagran Prakashan 81 428 0 8.1 5.8 6.5 (10.7) 9.9 13.8 12.4 9.7 8.4 2.9 2.6 30.4 19.9 20.5 3.7 4.3 (4.7) (4.4) (21.3) U-PF 88

HT Media 81 305 0 7.1 7.3 7.6 3.2 11.4 11.0 10.7 7.5 7.2 1.2 1.1 11.0 10.3 9.7 0.6 0.6 (7.5) (11.4) (19.4) O-PF 101

DB Corp 264 775 0 11.9 14.8 16.9 19.1 22.2 17.8 15.6 13.0 10.2 4.7 4.1 22.3 24.7 24.7 2.3 2.7 3 12 BUY 305

Real estate 8,539 45 26.1 17.9 14.2 11.2 13.6 10.8 0.8 0.7 4.5 5.4 6.5 1.4 1.7 0.1 13.8 (32.8)

Mahesh Nandurkar, CFA Dir-5079

DLF 150 4,259 25 4.5 4.1 6.5 20.0 33.3 36.3 23.1 19.4 15.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 2.7 4.1 1.3 1.7 (1.3) 14.9 (27.2) O-PF 170

Unitech 16 652 9 0.8 0.7 0.9 8.1 19.5 21.1 16.7 29.7 39.4 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.7 2.1 - 0.3 (9.6) (5.5) (47.1) U-PF 17

Oberoi Realty 190 997 1 15.4 16.1 21.6 18.6 12.3 11.8 8.8 8.4 7.6 1.5 1.4 12.8 12.0 14.4 1.1 1.1 7.4 16.1 (33.4) BUY 257

Godrej Properties 176 562 0 17.7 17.4 19.7 5.4 9.9 10.2 9.0 11.4 9.4 1.2 0.8 9.6 9.4 8.4 2.3 2.6 (4.5) (14.6) (39.3) U-PF 190

JP Infratech 19 414 0 5.0 5.3 6.0 9.7 3.7 3.5 3.1 7.1 5.4 0.4 0.4 11.6 11.5 12.1 5.4 6.5 5.1 21.1 (59.5) BUY 28

HDIL 47 317 8 1.8 15.7 13.9 181.7 26.9 3.0 3.4 8.8 6.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 6.1 5.2 - - 14.8 36.3 (55.5) SELL 42

Prestige 144 807 1 8.7 10.2 15.4 32.9 16.5 14.1 9.4 12.0 9.6 1.8 1.7 11.8 12.4 16.5 1.0 1.2 (0.6) 26.6 (11.5) BUY 171

Abhinav Sinha Dir-5069

Sobha Developers 337 529 1 22.1 27.6 34.0 23.9 15.2 12.2 9.9 8.4 7.3 1.5 1.4 10.5 12.2 13.7 2.4 2.7 6.2 39.8 (3.1) BUY 363

CLSA Universe 845,867 1,915 12.7 17.3 15.6 13.1 10.8 9.5 2.6 2.3 16.1 15.9 16.8 1.5 1.7 0.7 14.6 10.9

Sensex 20,425 1,225 1,342 1,569 13.2 16.7 15.2 13.0 10.9 9.4 2.7 2.4 17.2 16.8 17.4 1.7 1.9 (1.2) 13.7 8.4

Key to CLSA/CA Taiwan investment rankings: BUY: Total return expected to exceed market return AND provide 20% or greater absolute return; O-PF: Total return expected to be greater than market return but less than 20% absolute return; U-PF: Total return expected to be less than market return but expected to provide a positive absolute return; SELL: Total return expected to be less than market return AND to provide a negative absolute return. For relative performance, we benchmark the 12-month total return (including dividends) for the stock against the 12-month forecast return (including dividends) for the local market where the stock is traded. We define stocks we expect to provide returns of 100% or higher including dividends within three years as “Double Baggers”.

©2013 CLSA Limited (for research compiled by non-Taiwan analyst(s)) and/or Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd (for research compiled by Taiwan analyst(s)) Note: In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.

The analyst/s who compiled this publication/communication hereby state/s and confirm/s that the contents hereof truly reflect his/her/their views and opinions on the subject matter and that the analyst/s has/have not been placed under any undue influence, intervention or pressure by any person/s in compiling such publication/communication. CLSA group of companies (excluding CLSA Americas, LLC) (“CLSA”), Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd. (“CA Taiwan”), CLSA/CA Taiwan's analysts and/or their associates do and from time to time seek to establish business or financial relationships with companies covered in their research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that CLSA and/or such individuals may have one or more conflicts of interests that could affect the objectivity of this report. Regulations or market practice of some jurisdictions/markets prescribe certain disclosures to be made for certain actual, potential or perceived conflicts of interests relating to research reports and such details are available at www.clsa.com/member/research_disclosures/. Disclosures therein include the position of CLSA, CLSA Americas, LLC and CA Taiwan only and do not reflect those of CITIC Securities International Company Limited, Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank and/or their respective affiliates. If investors have any difficulty accessing this website, please contact [email protected] or +852 2600 8111. If you require disclosure information on previous dates, please contact [email protected]

IMPORTANT: The content of this report is subject to and should be read in conjunction with the disclaimer and CLSA's Legal a nd Regulatory Notices as set out at www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html, a hard copy of which may be obtained on request from CLSA Publ ications or CLSA Compliance Group (18/F, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, telephone +852 2600 8888) and/or CA

Taiwan Compliance (27/F, 95, Section 2 Dun Hua South Road, Taipei 10682, Taiwan, telephone +886 2 2326 8188). 05/08/2013