Closing the Investment Triangle: Timberlands, Emergent ...greenwoodresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/... · and Tree-Growing Technologies International Quality and Productivity

CONFIDENTIAL DISCUSSION PAPER. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION OF GREENWOOD RESOURCES

A Resource That Lasts Forever™

Closing the Investment Triangle: Timberlands, Emergent Markets, and Tree-Growing Technologies

International Quality and Productivity CenterJune 23, 2010

Brian J. Stanton, Ph. D.Managing Director, Tree Improvement Group

CONFIDENTIAL DISCUSSION PAPER. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION OF GREENWOOD RESOURCES2

“At the turn of the 20th century …

the world supported about one billion people. Today we are above six billion and counting. If we all ate simple vegetarian diets and farmed every acre of arable land as wisely as possible using the best techniques of the late 1800s, the earth could support a population of around four billion people. In theory, the other two-billion-plus inhabitants would be starving, the natural result of population outstripping food supply as doomsayers from Thomas Malthus to Paul Ehrlich have long predicted.”

“Ours is an age marked not by mass starvation but by an easy availability of cheap, high-calorie food. Our health problem is not malnutrition, but conditions related to overweight, from diabetes to heart disease. We are dying of plenty.”

Hagar, T. 2008, The Alchemy of Air. Three Rivers Press, New York. 316 pp.


Greatest Success Story: Development of Hybrid Corn

Troyer, A. F. 2006. Adaptedness and heterosis in corn and mule hybrids. Crop Science 46: 528-543.

1. Annual productivity has increased from 20 to 147 bu ac-1 per year over the last 75 years.

2. Labor hours needed to produce 100 bushels have fallen from nearly 150 in 1900 to 3 in 1980

3. Agricultural gross domestic product increases nearly threefold after 1940

Gardner, B. L. 2002. American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century: How it flourished and what it cost. Harvard University Press, 388 pp.


Forest Tree Improvement: Family Forestry

Select Potential Parents

Progeny Test to Rank Parents

Cross Pollinate Top Parents

1. Breeding

2. Deployment

Propagate Family by Seed

Photos courtesy Richard Bryant , Mike Cunningham, Arborgen


Forest Tree Improvement: Varietal Forestry

Family 375111733 × PS-33-94Progeny = 50Average 2 yr. stem volume = 4.8 dm2

Family 349PS-06-94× 131217Progeny = 49Average 2 yr. stem volume = 9.0 dm2

Std. Dev. = 2. 87

Extreme individual @ 2.1 standard deviations above family mean


Number of Genes Controlling Trait in Male and Female Parents

Number of PossibleGametic Combinations inPollen and Egg Cells

Number of PossibleUnique Offspring in a Superior Family

2 4 163 8 644 16 2565 32 1,0246 64 4,096

1/ Assumptions:• Linkage: Genes located on separate chromosomes.• Heterozygosity: Each gene represented by distinct alleles in each of

the male parent female parents.• Heterogeneity: Male and female parent have different alleles.• Additivity: No interaction within or between genes in their

expression

Varietal Forestry:Limits of Within-Family Genetic Variation1


Capturing the extremes of a population’s distribution: Examples of Varietal Selection and Propagation:

Hybrid Poplar –hardwood cuttings

Eucalyptus –tissue culture & rooted cuttings


Douglas-fir– Pacific Northwest

13-year-old stand

Photo courtesy of Keith Jayawickrama, Oregon State University


Ye, T. Z., Jayawickrama, K. J. S., and St. Clair, J. B. 2010. Realized gains from block-plot coastal Douglas-fir trials in the northern Oregon Cascades. Silvae Genetica 59: 29-39

Douglas-fir– Pacific Northwest

Elite = 10 top controlled pollinated families

Intermediate = 2nd tier of 10 controlled pollinated families

Unimproved = 50 open-pollinated families from the wild

0

50

100

150

200

250

Unimproved Intermediate Elite

Yield, Age 15, Cubic Meters / Hectare

205168

185


Monterey Pine - New Zealand

Photo courtesy of Mike Carson, Forest Genetics, Ltd.


Monterey Pine: Growth improvement at age 30

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Unimproved Open Pollinated Seed Orchard Control Pollinated Seed Orchard

Cubic Meters per Hectare

Open Pollinated Seed Orchard – Seed Collected from best parents, the female only

Control Pollinated Seed Orchard –Collecting seed from crosses among best females and best males

Source: Mike Carson, Forest Genetics, Ltd. Rotorua, New Zealand - 2010

754

905

1,165


Loblolly Pine – Southeastern United States

Photo courtesy Steve McKeand, North Carolina State University


Dougherty, D., Bryant, R., Burkhart, H., Dougherty, P., Jones, S., and McKeand, S. 2010. Valuing tomorrow’s loblolly pine plantations today. Forest Landowner: Jan./Feb. 19-21

Loblolly Pine – Southeastern United States


Wattle - Acacia auriculiformis Vietnam

Photo courtesy of Chris Harwood, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization


Acacia auriculiformis - Vietnam

Hai, P. H., Harwood, C., Kha, L. D., Pinyopusarerk, K., and Thinh, H. H. 2008. Genetic gain from breeding Acacia auriculiformins in Vietnam. Journal of Tropical Forestry 20: 313-327

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Commercial Seedlot Average Seed Orchard Select Seed Orchard

Yield, Age 4, Cubic Meters /Hectare

18

28

12


Eucalyptus– Brazil


Brazilian Eucalyptus Plantation’s Increase in Growth Rate (Productivity)

Source: Shinitiro Oda, Suzano Papel e Celulose, Brazil - 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Unimproved 1980 1990 2000

Cubic Meters /Hectare /Year

25

35

45

13


Hybrid PoplarLower Columbia River Valley


Hybrid Poplar:Biomass Productivity at Age 6

Source: Richard Shuren, GreenWood Resources 1993

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Unimproved Hybridization Varietal Selection

Metric Tons per Hectare

88

56

40


Closing Thoughts1. Planted forests account for 7% of the global forest area but two-thirds of the

world’s potential wood production. By 2030 the area of planted forests may increase by 30% and wood production by 50%, taking higher productivity rates into account. 1

2. Presently, gains in yield have approximated 150 to 233%. Real assessment includes quality traits of stand uniformity, stem form, wood density.

3. Compared to agronomic crops, forest tree improvement has just begun. Continuation threatened by changes in forest land ownership.

4. In addition to economic values, planted forests provide social, cultural, and environmental values.

“The time has come … for the timber-extraction industry to shift to tree farming on already converted land. The cultivation of lumber and pulp should be conducted like the agribusiness it is, using high-quality, fast-growing species and strains for high productivity and profit. 2”

1/ Carle, J. and Holmgren, P. 2008. Wood from planted forests: A global outlook 2005-2030. Forest Products Journal 58: 6-18.

2/ Wilson, E. O. 2002. The Future of Life. Random House, Inc. New York, 229 pp.

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Closing the Investment Triangle: Timberlands, Emergent ...greenwoodresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/... · and Tree-Growing Technologies International Quality and Productivity