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IMPLICATION OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ON NATIONAL AND
PROVINCIAL ECONOMIES
Clive CoetzeeGeneral Manager: Infrastructure Management and Economic ServicesKZN Provincial Treasury
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 GDP GROWTH RATE
Australia Hungary
Japan Turkey
India
% CHANGE YOY
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
Jun-0
9Ju
l-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-1
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-1
1
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-1
2
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103 LEADING INDICATOR
Australia Hungary
Sweden United States
Index
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
Jun-0
9Ju
l-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-1
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-1
1
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-1
2
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12UNEMPLOYMENT
Hungary Japan
Russia Federation European Area
%
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
Jun-0
9Ju
l-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-1
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-1
1
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-1
2
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8INFLATION
Chile France Poland
China South Africa
%
INTERNATIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS
Jul-0
9
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-1
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-1
1
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-1
2
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30IMPORTS% CHANGE YOY
INTERNATIONAL MACRO INDICATORS
INTERNATIONAL MACRO INDICATORSJa
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
n-09
Jul-0
9A
ug-0
9S
ep-0
9O
ct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1A
pr-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
n-11
Jul-1
1A
ug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-12
Feb-
12M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-12
Jul-1
2A
ug-1
2S
ep-1
20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14SHORT TERM INTEREST RATES
Australia Mexico
Poland United States
Russian Federation
%
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-0
8
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-0
9
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-1
0
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-1
1
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-1
2
Aug-12
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00AUSBRLNZDKORCADZAR
INTERNATIONAL MACRO INDICATORS
World Currency = Index USD
INTERNATIONAL MACRO INDICATORS
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000Government debt - Millions of euro
Italy France United Kingdom
Hungary Sweden
INTERNATIONAL MACRO INDICATORS
Jul-0
9
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-1
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-1
0Ju
l-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-1
1
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-1
1Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-1
2
Feb-12
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00 STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE
Australia Hungary Japan
Poland
Index, 2005=100
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
Political Polarization
Economic Ideological Differences
Geo Spatial Differences
Policy Uncertainty
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
Global Volatility
Sovereign Debt Markets
Energy Market
Global Warming
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
Rising Economic Powers
China Slowing Down
Brazil Still Powering
South Africa Internal Struggles
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
Fundamental Economic Change
Technological Advancement
Decrease Communication and Transport Costs
Increase in World Supply of Labour
Reduction of Trade Barriers
INTERNATIONAL FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES
The primary-products economy has come "uncoupled" from the industrial economy.
In the industrial economy itself, production has come "uncoupled" from employment.
Capital movements rather than trade (in both goods and services) have become the driving force of the world economy. The two have not quite come uncoupled, but the link has become loose, and worse, unpredictable.
SUMMARY
Africa as a new frontierCommodity prices cyclesSharp depreciation of local currencyDisruptions to productive activityMonetary policy spaceDeteriorating World rankings City economic concentration levelsUrbanization Rates
SUMMARY
In SA we have the situation of TWIN Headwinds:
Global Economic SlowdownDomestic Uncertainty and Unrest
Outlook does not look good – but.....
SUMMARY
“Good” Economic PoliciesAn “attractive” DestinationImplementation and Service
Orientated EthicFocus on Cities Social Partnership for development