-
André Lucena, Bruno Borba, Roberto
Schaeffer, Alexandre Szklo, Pedro
Rochedo, Rafael Kelman, Pedro Ávila,
Bernardo Bezerra
Climate change impacts on hydropower
genera4on in Brazil
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IntroducAon – Brazilian Energy System
• The Brazilian energy system is
highly dependent on
renewable energy, especially hydropower
• Renewables accounted for around
40% of primary energy
supply in 2014 – Hydropower was
80% of all electricity producAon
in the country in
average over the last ten years
– 15% of fuel consumpAon in
the transportaAon sector was ethanol
in
2014 – Wind energy is sAll low,
but has increased sharply over
the last few
years (currently 4.8% of total
installed capacity)
How is that impacted by future
climate change?
-
Hydrological Seasonality in Brazil
(Historical data 1931 – 2009)
Source: Silva (2012)
-
NaAonal Interconnected System (SIN)
h[p://www.ons.org.br/
-
Previous Studies on Climate Change
Impacts-‐AdaptaAon
-
What’s new? • Project hired by
Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos
da Presidência da República –
Colabora4on COPPE-‐PSR – New scenarios
– RCPs 8.5 and 4.5
• MiAgaAon vs. AdaptaAon – New GCMs
(HadGEM and MIROC) – StochasAc
dispatch modeling
• Research quesAons: – What are the
impacts of climate change on
the Brazilian Interconnected System?
– What would be the best
alternaAves to compensate hydropower
loss? • What is the best way
to adapt: operaAon vs. expansion?
– To what extent miAgaAon policies
may affect these best alternaAves?
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Methodology and Results
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Climate Change Data • RCPs – 4.5
– 8.5
• GCMs – HadGEM – MIROC
• Dowscaling – ETA: INPE (Chou
et al., 2014)
• Hydrological Model – SMAP (water
balance model): University of Ceará
(MarAns et at., 2014)
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Projected Riverflow Brazilian River
Basins
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Projected Riverflow Brazilian River
Basins – Paraná
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Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to
Itaipu hydropower plant – RCP
8.5 HadGEM
MIROC
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Projected Riverflow Brazilian River
Basins – TocanAns Araguaia
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Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to
Tucuruí hydropower plant – RCP
8.5 HadGEM
MIROC
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Projected Riverflow Brazilian River
Basins – São Francisco
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Projected Riverflow Natural inflow to
Sobradinho hydropower plant – RCP
8.5 HadGEM
MIROC
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Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and
8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
Opera4on/Expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal
cost of operaAon • Deficit
probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs
• Second order effects
-
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and
8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal
cost of operaAon • Deficit
probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs
• Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
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Baseline Scenarios
Baseline scenarios: RCP comparison –
Electricity
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
Base 4.5
Base 8.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2040
GW year
Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear
Biomass Wind Solar
Premisses: RCP 8.5 • BAU
expansion – no explicit miAgaAon
assumed
RCP 4.5 • Energy efficiency • Lower
fossil expansion • 100$/tCO2 Carbon
tax aoer 2030 (ETP, 2015)
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Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and
8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal
cost of operaAon • Deficit
probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs
• Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
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Results OperaAon: Risk of shortage
HadGEM MIROC
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
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Results – OperaAon Costs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Base HadGEM MIROC
Billion
USD
RCP 8.5
Base HadGEM MIROC
RCP 4.5
-
Energy Modeling Approach
Scenario Premisses (RCP 4.5 and
8.5)
OperaAon Model SDDP (PSR)
Expansion Model MESSAGE-‐Brazil
(COPPE)
Opera4on/ Expansion
OperaAon Impacts/ adaptaAon
AdaptaAon through expansion
GCM – Dow
scaling – Hy
drology Mod
el
195 riv
erflo
w se
ries
• Hydro generaAon scenarios • Marginal
cost of operaAon • Deficit
probability
• Capacity expansion • Investment costs
• Second order effects
Opera4on/Expansion
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Results – AdaptaAon RCP 8.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW m
ed
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa
Eólica Solar
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Results – AdaptaAon RCP 4.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
Base
HadGEM
MIROC
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW m
ed
Hidro Carvão Gás Óleo Combustível Diesel Nuclear Biomassa
Eólica Solar
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Results – AdaptaAon Costs
• Accumulated invesAment costs up to
2040: – HadGEM • RCP 4.5: USD
79 billion • RCP 8.5: USD 280
billion
– MIROC • RCP 4.5: USD 3 billion
• RCP 8.5: USD 158 billion
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Discussion
• Detailed dispatch modeling requires
detailed hydrological modeling
• OperaAonal impacts can be severe
and costly if there is no
adaptaAon through system expansion
• MiAgaAon policies do impact opAmal
adaptaAon strategies – AdapAng to a
reduced hydropower availability may
further increase Brazil’s emissions
if no other acAons are taken
– AdaptaAon can be achieved by
fossil fuels or by a combinaAon
of energy efficiency, renewable
energy, etc.
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LAMP Climate Policy Scenarios
Electricity GeneraAon
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2
price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50%
abatement (FF&I)
TWh/year2030
Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear
Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
EPPA
GCAM
MESSA
GE-‐Brazil
POLES
Phoe
nix
TIAM
-‐ECN
Core baseline $10 CO2 price $50 CO2
price 20% abatement (FF&I) 50%
abatement (FF&I)
TWh/year
2050
Hydro Oil Coal Coal w/CCS Gas Gas w/CCS Nuclear
Biomass Biomass w/CCS Solar Wind Other
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Next Steps
• Second stage of LAMP –
impacts/adaptaAon – To what extent a
more detailed dispatch analysis is
relevant for adaptaAon-‐miAgaAon
assessment?
– What are the uncertainAes related
to the miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon interacAons?
• What is the role of Brazil
in a given climate goal? • How
will adaptaAon take place in
such circumstances?
• JGCRI – impact analysis • Several
IAMs looking at miAgaAon-‐adaptaAon
– GCAM, TIAM-‐ECN, IMAGE, EPPA,
MESSAGE-‐Brazil
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Thank you [email protected]
