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CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
L.A.OGALLO
IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) www.icpac.net
Dept. of Met. University of Nairobi
KEY ISSUES
Review of Progress of S & T issues in support of Climate risk reduction:
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS): An international framework to guide the development of climate services (UN system /WMO and all): WCC-3 plus recent WMO documents• Challenges of developing countries
Climate risks in developing countries
•Economic losses as percent of GDP eg one cyclone 10% GDP lost; One flood 15% on national economy (GDP) - followed immediately with severe drought lasting five years wiping serving livelihoods left by floods )
•Roles of Non climate hazards: Need for integrated Disaster risk reduction
•No sustainable development can be achieved within DRR
Infrastructure and Industry
5
Agriculture & Food Security
SOCIO - ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Knowledge of interactions at Global, Regional and Local level
(i) Research, S &T : Advance understanding / knowledge of Climate Risk
Hazards; Values at risks, Vulnerability vs capacity
- Mapping at global, regional and local levers
- Improved understanding of Causes and Linkages
- New tools and methods eg impacts, vulnerability, adaptation
- GIS
Experience from WMO regional centres
Examples of Floods are followed by droughts in Greater Horn of Africa
Need to understand extremes, predict and early warn
Know the hazards well and the interactions
Precipitation anomalies during El Niño in Winter
Key progress areas•Observations (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,GEOSS------) re-analysed data, and enhanced monitoring (space based technology)
•Data recovery, Data base archiving, …and providing historical baseline references
•Modeling and prediction
•Early warning
•Availability of regional / sector specific down scaled climate products
•Dissemination and exchange of climate information and services
Progress in Climate risk reduction
•Networking and coordination (WMO system)
•Capacity building
•Linkages with users to reduce climate risks
•Institutional framework: Global , regional National, and LOCAL climate services
•Partnerships for pilot demonstrations
•Climate change challenges vs DRR
•Low Science and technological support to climate risk reduction
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS)
-An international framework to guide the development of climate services (UN system /WMO and all)
-Framework to link climate science, developments in S & T with all climate related risks (climate variability, change and DRR)
Climate services including integrated Disaster risk reduction (Three tie WMO system)
•WMO Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts•WMO Regional climate Centres of excellence•National Meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs)•LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL not very clear left to regional climate centres
Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts
Beijing ExeterECMWF Melbourne
Montreal Moscow Seoul Toulouse Washington
2M Temperature (MAM 2010)Operational activities for long-range forecasting
MelbourneExeterBeijing ECMWF
Montreal Moscow Seoul Toulouse Washington
Rainfall (MAM 2010)
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Somalia
Kenya
BurundiRwanda
Uganda
Tanzania
Sudan
10 ICPAC MEMBER COUNTRIES
Figure 1: Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook for the March to May 2010
RCOFs based Food RCOFs based Food Security outlooks Security outlooks FEWS/ NET; FEWS/ NET;
Translating prob. into rainfall anomalies
Most-likely scenarioMost-likely scenarioMAM 2010MAM 2010
SEECOFSEECOF(Southeastern (Southeastern Europe)Europe)
FOCRAIIFOCRAII(Asia)(Asia)
PICOFPICOF(Pacific (Pacific Islands)Islands)
SARCOFSARCOF(Southern Africa)(Southern Africa) SSACOFSSACOF
(Southeast of (Southeast of South South America)America)
WCSACOFWCSACOF(Western Coast of (Western Coast of South America)South America)
PRESAOPRESAO(West Africa)(West Africa)
GHACOFGHACOF(Greater Horn of (Greater Horn of Africa)Africa)
FCCAFCCA(Central (Central America)America)
CCOFCCOF(Caribbean)(Caribbean)
PRESACPRESAC(Central (Central Africa)Africa)
SASCOFSASCOF(India)(India)
Science and technology needs and Gaps
•Observations and data recovery / archiving
•Regional data base and data management
•Modeling, prediction and early warning
•Computing and related needs
- Lack of integrated DRR and S $ T policies (No clear linkages / clear policy for integration with DRR and S & T innovations)
- Knowing regional / local hazards
(Quantification of hazards, vulnerability)
- Human and technical capacity :Multi / Inter disciplinary
- Low investments in research, S & T
(Lack policy on Research, S & T largely sectors specific , driven by individuals)
- Weak National /regional Institutions , with minimum network with universities, and community based systems that could be used to demonstrate good practices
- Climate change challengesscenarios projections
• Lack of capability to use the available S & T and climate information
• Role of local/ Indigenous knowledge in DRR
• Finance : Opportunities eg climate fund
• Regional Collaborations / coordination and networks
- Assessment of existing capacity
- Enhance capacity of exiting institutions for multi disciplinary DDR approaches (eg The African regional centres)
CONCLUSION•Role that S $ T can play has been demonstrated
•Limitation of developing countries to take advantage of available S $ T in DRR •Regional Efforts: Ministerial conferences for MET and DRR; AUC workshop on the Global platform
•Global DRR Platform provide a framework for ensuring S&T to DRR in developing countries. These should include support for local / regional research and capacity building together with S&T innovations for local solutions