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Climate Risk Assessment at a River
Basin Scale
Applying GIZ Methodology
Eng. M.Sc. José L. Gutíérrez
Dr. Carlos P. Saavedra
March 27th, 2021
Page 2
Developing countries are vulnerable to global warming and its
consequences. Adaptation to climate change is a strategy with the
ultimate goal of avoiding harm and costs that can arise from doing
business as usual without taking climate change into considerationhttps://www.adaptationcommunity.net/
Content
• Context assessment
• Methodology
• Key aspects of the assessment
• Lessons learned
Page 3
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Context assessment
Page 4
Water availability in Bolivia
Eart
h
Eart
h
Water excess
Water
scarcity
Page 5
River basin stressors
Water excess
Page 6
River
basin
Ecosystem
degradation
Climate
change
Population
increase
Governance
mechanisms
Socioeconomic
aspects
Others
Water management at the River basin level: Strategic River Basin Plan
Page 7
Preparation
Diagnosis
PlanningImplemen-
tation
Ajustment
Climate risk
assessment
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Methodology
Page 8
Methodology
Page 9
https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-
content/uploads/2018/06/giz-eurac-unu-2018-en-guidebook-
climate-risk-asessment-eba.pdf
2016 2017 2019 2014 2012
𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 =𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 ∗ 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 + 𝑤𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 ∗ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 + 𝑤𝑣𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 ∗ 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 +𝑤𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 +𝑤𝑣𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
Conceptual and mathematic models
weighting
IPC
C, W
GIIA
R5
Page 10
weighting weighting weighting
weighting weighting
Methodology key steps
Preparing the risk
assessment1 Developing impact chains 2
Identifying and selecting
indicators for risk components3
Data acquisition and
management4
Normalisation of indicator
data5
Weighting and aggregating
indicators6
Aggregating risk
components to risk7
Page 11
Interpreting the outcomes
of the risk assessment8 Identifying adaptation options 9
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Key aspects of the assessment
Page 12
Objective
Identify and quantify the climate risk at river basin scale (Guadalquivir and Azero)
Scope
Period of time: • Present (1980 - 2018)
• Future (2020 - 2050)
Hazard: • Water scarcity
• Water excess
Exposed
elements :
• Urban and rural communities
• Agricultural activities
• Livestock activities
Assessed river basins
Page 14
Eart
h
Azero Basin
Guadalquivir Basin
Azero basin
• 10 municipalities
• 41,913 inhabitants
• Surface area: 5,689 Km2
• 73 sub-basins
• 180 communities (21 –
3,314 inhabitants)
• 175 agricultural
communities (1.4 – 446
ha)
• 304,072 animals (204 –
7,098)
• Main problem:
• Water scarcity
• Poverty
Guadalquivir basin
• 4 municipalities
• 243,765 inhabitants
• Surface area: 3,334 Km2
• 78 sub-basins
• 167 communities (6 –
179,561 inhabitants)
• 156 agricultural
communities (12 – 567
ha)
• 304,072 animals (159 –
128,389)
• Main problem:
• Water scarcity
• Water pollution
Source of data and information
• Public institutions, through the official websites
• The data was collected at no cost from:
• National Meteorological and hydrological Service (http://senamhi.gob.bo/index.php/inicio )
• National Institute of Statistics (https://www.ine.gob.bo/index.php/censos-y-banco-de-datos/censos/ )
• Ministry of Development Planning (http://sispie.planificacion.gob.bo/sis_spie/index.php )
Risk component indicators for settlements
Page 16
Risk componentIndicator
Water scarcity Water excess
Hazard Sum of the negative values of precipitation - evapotranspiration
Sum of the precipitation that
exceed the percentile 90
Exposure Population Population
Vulnerability Poverty (unsatisfied basic
needs)
Poverty (unsatisfied basic
needs)
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Risk component indicators for agriculture activities
Page 17
Risk
component
Indicator
Water scarcity Water excess
Hazard Sum of the negative values of precipitation - evapotranspiration
Sum of the precipitation that exceed
the percentile 90
Exposure Agriculture area Agriculture area
Vulnerability • Sensitivity to water scarcity of
the crop
• Irrigated area
• Forestry area
• Number of farm tractors
• Number of pest control
equipments
• Number of people dedicated to
agricultural activity in the
community
• Sensitivity to water excess of the
crop
• Forestry area
• Number of farm tractors
• Number of pest control
equipments
• Number of people dedicated to
agricultural activity in the
community
https://www.tarija200.com/post/como-lograr-el-desarrollo-
Risk component indicators for livestock activities
Page 18
Risk
component
Indicator
Water scarcity Water excess
Hazard Sum of the negative values of precipitation – evapotranspiration
Sum of the precipitation that exceed
the percentile 90
Exposure Number of productive units Number of productive units
Vulnerability • Animals’ sensitivity to water
scarcity
• Natural and cultivated pasture
area
• Number of people dedicated to
livestock activity in the
community
• Animals’ sensitivity to water
excess
• Natural and cultivated pasture
area
• Number of people dedicated to
livestock activity in the
community
https://www.educa.com.bo/geografia/mojocoya-municipio-de-zudanez
Results achieved
Page 19
Strategic River Basin Plan
Recommenda-
tions for
Adaptation
Measures
Monitoring and
evaluation
system
Training on
methodology use
Contact email: [email protected]
https://rotariaweb.net/procuenca/index.php
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Lessons learned
Page 20
a) At a low cost and reduced time frame, applying the GIZ
methodology, it was possible to identify the settlements, and
the agriculture and livestock communities that are at the
high risk to climate change.
b) The results achieved, using the methodology, correspond to
those perceived by the community.
c) The methodology use the weighted arithmetic mean for
calculating the risk, which main disadvantage is that a
positive value of one component may conceal the fact that
the value of another component is critical.
Page 21
d) The climate risk assessment could be conducted again
when new census data are available (2024).
e) The definition of the risk degree (high, medium or low)
was based in the Natural Break (Jenks) classification
method, in the future, it could be done using the
threshold values.
Page 22
Jose Luis Gutierrez
PROCUENCA – GIZ Bolivia
Carlos Saavedra
PROCUENCA – GIZ Bolivia
German Cooperation in Bolivia Implemented by GIZ
www.giz.de
https://twitter.com/giz_gmbh
https://www.facebook.com/gizprofile/GIZ Bolivia
German Embassy in La Paz, Bolivia
German Cooperation Virtual Library - BIVICA
