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First Results and Outlook
Climate Proofing the Beef Value Chain in Malawi
Dr. Till Below «Climate Protection
Programme for Developing Countries»
Bonn, 20.08.2013
Page 2
Content
1. Beef Value Chain in Malawi
2. Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities
3. Adaptation Options
4. Public-Private Dialogue Forum
Page 3
Livestock & climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa
• High growth in animal product consumption
• Strategic role of beef value chain for agric. sector growth (AU Food Summit, Abuja 2006)
• Quantitative CC impacts -25 up to +168% by the end of the century (Seo and Mendelsohn 2008)
Need for adaptation
• But: Livestock sector has also a substantial GHG “hoofprint”
Livestock systems with >20% loss in LGP to 2050 due to CC. Source: ILRI n.d.
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The Livestock Sector in Malawi
19.08.2013
• Livestock: 10% of ag. GDP
• Mainly commercial feedlots
• 10% of rural households traditional pastoralists
• Gap between domestic supply and demand • High demand-driven prices • Low consumption
• No official cross-border trade Estimates of Cattle Population (MoTrade 2012)
Trends in Nominal Meat Prices (Bunda College 2008)
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Map of the Beef Value Chain in Malawi
19.08.2013 Source: GIZ (2012)
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Commercial vs. Traditional Livestock Production Systems
19.08.2013
Commercial Beef Sector
• Brahman, Sussex, East African Zebu
• Predominantly in the South
• Cattle fattened year round in feedlots
• Feed on fodder crops, crop residues and feed concentrate
• 5 large abattoirs
• Slaughter at age 1.5 to 2 years
• Supply supermarket retail beef
Smallholder Beef Sector
• East African Zebu
• Pastoral systems (grazing on communal lands & post harvest)
• Prominent role of middlemen
• Local consumption of the meat
• Multipurpose us of cattle, e.g. beef, dairy, transport, draught power, prestige
• Trend towards small stock
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Climate Trends for Malawi
19.08.2013
Trend Current/ Baseline Future/ Projection Temperature mean +0.9°C since 1960 +1.5 to +5.0°C by
2090s
Temperature extremes
+13% hot days since 1960 Substantial increases in frequency of hot days
Temperature extremes
+ 11% hot nights since 1960 Substantial increases in frequency of hot nights
Precipitation mean No trend identifiable No trend
Precipitation extreme
No trend identifiable Increase by 19% by 2090s
Droughts Increase in frequency, intensity and magnitude over past 20 years
? No projections
Floods Increase in frequency, intensity and magnitude over past 20 years
? No projections
Source: World Bank (2011)
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Impacts on the Beef Value Chain
19.08.2013
• Decrease in grazing potential of pastures and lower yields of fodder crops due to erratic rains and high temperatures
• Longer dry season significantly affects water availability for cattle
• Changed rainfall patterns make wetlands arable wetlands previously used for cattle grazing used for crop production
• Heat stress to cattle: impacts on fertility, weight gain, milk yield
• Reduced grazing and water availablity higher cattle densities greater transfer of diseases
• Loss of animals due to drought or flood
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Adaptation options
19.08.2013
Assess climate change sensitivities of water and fodder ressources & promote adapted management
Promote linkages between different value chains
Develop farmers‘ capacity to use climate information
Develop breeding and breed conservation programmes
Analyse impacts of CC on parasites and diseases
Adjust national political and legislatory framework
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Public-Private Dialogue Forum: Adaptation in the Beef Sector of Southern Africa
19.08.2013
Partners • GIZ (CAADP-Climate, FMB 47/45) • Southern African Confederation of
Agricultural Unions (SACAU) Setting • 2 days regional event in early 2014
(or 2 national events Botswana & Namibia)
100-150 participants • Members of the national farmers
organizations under SACAU • DM from ministries • Experts • Private companies
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Objectives of the Forum
19.08.2013
1. To promote a common understanding of climate change related vulnerabilities in the livestock sector in Southern Africa and options to address these vulnerabilities in a coherent manner
2. To identify and assess good practices for adaptation to climate change, mainly in the area of primary production, under special consideration of gender together with regional farmers’ organisations
3. To develop recommendations on how to integrate the lessons learned on adapting the livestock sector to climate change into NAIPs and other policy processes and documents
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Dr. Till Below
Climate Protection Programme for Developing Countries
Competence Centre for Climate Change
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
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Additional slides
19.08.2013
Page 14 19.08.2013
Seo SN & Mendelsohn R (2008) Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management. Agric. Econ. 38(2):151-165.
Page 15
Climate Proofing: the Steps
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Step 1: Preparation
+ Pre-Screening
Step 2: Detailed climate analysis
Step 3: Selection of adaptation
options
Step 4: Integration
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Gather climate information and compile it in a user-friendly way
Screen planned actions (policies, strategies, plans, projects, …) to determine whether further analysis is necessary
• Are there climate trends that are sufficiently certain?
• Will these climatic trends potentially have a significant impact on the planned action?
• Will the impact of these climatic trends occur during the time horizon of the planned action?
High Climate risks Low
Step 1: Preparation + Pre-Screening
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
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Pre-Screening: Possible Results
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Climate change does not pose any significant risk to the achievement of the objectives of a planned action.
“No need to act” option
Climate change likely to be a significant risk for the achievement of the objectives of a planned action, adaptation may be necessary.
Identify adaptation options and integrate them in the further planning of action!
Climate information is too uncertain.
Collect or compile better climate information and/or favor no regret options.
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Step 2: Detailed climate analysis
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Climatic trend
Exposure unit
Bio-physical effect
Socio-economic effect
Relevance for planning
Adaptation options
Sea level rise
Coastal zone
Agriculture in the Mekong delta
Salt water intrusion
Flooding
Crop losses
Loss of revenues from agriculture
Loss of agricultural income
Migration from rural areas
Slow onset event
High likelihood of occurrence
Major economic damage
High relevance
Short term: • change crop varieties, • change production models • protect dikes
Log term: • upgrade dikes
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Step 3: Selection of adaptation options
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Prioritise, using criteria such as:
• Strategic relevance
• Political and social acceptance
• Economic feasibility, return on investment
• Level of risk, probability of impact
• Urgency
• Co-benefits and side effects
• No regret or low regret options
• …
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Project identifi-cation
Project appraisal
Detailed design
Project implemen-
tation
Monitoring &
Evaluation
Step 4: Integration
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Step 1: Preparation + Pre-Screening
Step 2: Detailed climate analysis
Step 3: Selection of adaptation options
Implement selected adaptation options
Monitor + evaluate adaptation success
Page 21
Climate Proofing – Key Considerations
company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
Climate proofing must look for risks and opportunities
Climate proofing may result in the „no need to act“ option
Climate proofing ususally requires a multi-sectoral approach
Climate proofing is a process – and may take time
Climate proofing must aim to improve adaptation, or reduce vulnerability
Climate proofing must subject itself to monitoring and evaluation
Climate proofing can be combined with other approaches (EIA, SEA, IES)
Page 22 company presentation 2012 19.08.2013
