CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTUREmsg.wgsr.uw.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/13boryczka.pdf · CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 101 ... It was probably 2.9

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 101

Jerzy Boryczka, Maria Stopa-Boryczka

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE.PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE

Abstract: The advancing warming of Earth climate has largely been influenced by naturalcauses, i.e. increased Solar activity and decreasing volcanic activity on Earth. It still remainsunknown which part of the warming process results from the increased amount of Solar energyreaching Earth surface, and which is being caused by the anthropogenic part of atmosphere’sgreenhouse effect. The facts speaking in favour of natural factors include synchronic changesof mean air temperature on the Northern hemisphere between 1856 –2002, mean consecutive11-year Wolf numbers, and the location of mass centres of the four biggest planets in ourSolar system.The theory of natural causes of climate warming is also backed by synchronic changes incarbon dioxide concentration and paleotemperature within the last 160,000 years and 450,000years, recreated based Antarctica ice cores. Warmings occur every 100,000 years. They aretriggered by increased Solar radiation in large geographic latitudes resulting from changes inEarth orbit and Earth axis slant (according to the already accepted Milankovic theory).“Parallelism” of changes in CO2 concentration and paleotemperture shows that the atmosphericcontent of carbon dioxide is shaped by the amount of Solar radiation reaching Earth – throughshifts in ocean waters temperature. It is more credible to claim that “CO2 concentration inatmosphere rises along with the amount of Solar radiation reaching Earth surface (i.e. whenit is warmer).”Key words: Solar radiation, temperature, greenhouse effect, spectre, volcanic platforms, Solaractivity, planet mass momentum, forecast.

INTRODUCTION

The history of the Earth’s climate can be divided into eras, dependingon the time scale and the applied research methods, in the following way:1. The last 3.5 billion years; 2. The last 2 billion years (Quaternary); 3. Thelast 10,000 years (Holocene), 4. The last few hundred years (historical, den-drometric and instrumental data).Forms of relief of the postglacial surfaces, ancient coastal lines of seas,oceans and lakes, coral reefs and relicts of the first forms of life on the Earthinform us about the earliest history of the Earth. Deep-sea sediments, lakesediments and, above all, ice of the Antarctic and Arctic as well as mountainglaciers are the books in which the history of Earth’s climate is written down.Periods of cooling and warming of the climate are determined on the basisof palaeotemperature, that is, the content of the isotopes of oxygen 18O or

JERZY BORYCZKA, MARIA STOPA-BORYCZKA102

hydrogen 2H (deuterium) in organic substances, deposited in sediments andice cores. A fundamental importance for the reconstruction of the ancientclimate has the establishing of the age of rocks, sediments and ice cores. Toachieve this, the half-life of radioactive elements is used, namely that of thecarbon isotope 14C (5730 years) and of the isotopes originating in the decayof uranium: protactinium 231Pa, thorium 230Th, uranium isotope 234U andothers, with half-life from ten to twenty thousand years.Among the most important events in the history of the Earth (Fig. 1) inthe last 3.5 billion years are traces of life: anoxygenic bacteria (2.9 billionyears ago) and photosynthetic bacteria (2.4 billion years ago).It was probably 2.9 billion years ago that a catastrophe happened on theEarth: the Moon and Earth approached each other very closely: as close as20 times the Earth’s radius (nowadays 60 times) (Panel and Mohr, 1970, after:Czapiewska, Bielicki, 1982). Heat created due to a great tidal force of Moon(27 times as large) caused strong volcanic eruptions on the Earth. The first

The more important events on the Earth

FORMATION OF SUN AND SOLAR SYSTEM (-4.5): Mercury, Venus,Mars, Earth, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto. As a resultof the condensation of the dust and gas matter, as well as gravitationalshrinnking the temperature inside the Sun increased to 10 million °C.Nuclear transformations of hydrogen into hellium began.

TRACES OF LIFE ON EARTH

Anaerobic bacteria (-2.9)CATACLYSM ON THE EARTH: VOLCANISM(-2.85) Dramatic approach of the Moon (20 Rz)Photosynthetic bacteria (-2.4)ARCHAIC ICE AGE (-2.4, -2.2) Canada, Alaska, India, Australia

WARM CLIMATIC

ICE AGES – COSMIC WINTERS Glaciation of the poles (South and North)(every 190 million years; galactic year – 226 milliuon years)

Extinction of dinosaurs

Time (

befor

e the

pres

ent)

in bil

lion o

f yea

rs

-4.5 -

-4.0 -

-3.5 -

-3.0 -

-2.5 -

-2.0 -

-1.5 -

-1.0 -

-0.5 -

0.0 -

Fig. 1. The more important events on the Earth 3.5 billion years ago.

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 103traces of life come from 3.3–3.0 billion years ago. There is a coincidence ofdates of, for example, disappearance of plutonium from the Earth’s crust (2.9 –2.4 billion years ago) and of the archaic volcanic activity.About 2.3 billion years ago the volcanic activity decreased and the Earth’stemperature decreased significantly. First (archaic) ice age took place on theEarth. An evidence of this are unique moraine deposits whose age is esti-mated to be 2.2–2.4 billion years. Traces of this archaic glaciation are pre-served in Canada, Alaska, India and Australia. The archaic glaciation led tothe creation of ice covers in the subpolar regions of both hemispheres.

AN OUTLINE OF THE CLIMATEIN THE PAST GEOLOGICAL EPOCHS

The Earth’s climate depends on the changes in the intensity of shortwaveradiation emitted by the Sun, on the absorption characteristics of the at-mosphere (including CO2) and of the Earth’s surface (albedo), as well as onthe longwave radiation of the Earth.During the last billion years six great ice ages occurred: 905, 750, 620,440, 280, 3–2 million years ago (the Quaternary glaciation): on the average,every 190 million years. These are the so-called “cosmic winters”, which maybe caused by the revolution of the solar system around the centre of ourgalaxy (the Milky Way). The galactic year is equal to about 226 million years.A sudden warming and cooling of Earth’s climate 55 million years ago mighthave caused the extinction of the dinosaurs.During the last million years ten main cooling periods and ten warmingperiods of the climate occurred. The average period between the coolingperiods (glaciations of the Earth) is equal to about 100,000 years.Earth’s glaciations (including Europe) were a consequence of the overlap-ping of the three long cycles: 92,000 years (eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit),40,000 years (the inclination of the Earth’s axis with respect to the eclipticplane) and 21,000 years (the location of the perihelion with respect to thepoint of the spring equinox) (Milankovič, 1938; Berger, 1988). Periodic changesof the parameters of the elliptic Earth’s orbit caused then significant decreasesof the solar radiation in large latitudes.It turned out (Hays et al., 1976) that the oxygen isotope 18O in the depos-ited calcium carbonate in deep-sea sediments is characterised by a similarperiodicity: 100,000, 42,000 and 23,000 years.A comparison of the changes of concentration of carbon dioxide and thepalaeotemperature during the last 160,000 years, reconstructed on the basisof the chemical analysis of ice cores at the Vostok station (Fig. 2) (The At-mosphere…, 1990), with the changes of the solar radiation sums providesimportant information about the causes of climate changes. The global warm-ing and the very high concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere which occurred135,000 years ago coincided with the maximum of the solar radiation sumsat the latitude φ = 65° N (from March through September), caused by the


changes in the Earth’s orbit (Fig. 3). The “parallel” occurrence of the chang-es in the radiation sums, palaeotemperature and the concentration of CO2 isan evidence that the content of CO2 in the atmosphere depends on the in-flux of the solar radiation to the Earth’s surface (on the temperature of theocean waters). Nowadays the tendency of the palaeotemperature to decreasecorresponds to a distinct tendency of the CO2 concentration to increase.Analogous conclusions follow from the comparison of the interglacial pe-riods and the maxima of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere abovethe Antarctic during the last 400,000 years (Fig. 4) (Petit et al., 1999) withthe changes of the solar radiation sums at the latitude φ = 65° N (from Marchthrough September) (Fig. 5). The dates of the consecutive main maxima ofthe solar radiation sums at the latitude φ = 65° N in these months agreewith the dates of the consecutive interglacial periods (maxima of tempera-ture shown in italics).In calculations of the solar radiation sums on the parallel φ = 65° N fromMarch through September the following periods were taken into accounts:100,000, 40,000 and 21,000 years. It was assumed that the eccentricity e ofthe elliptic orbit of the Earth during the cycle of 100,000 years varies from0.00 to 0.066 (currently e = 0.017), and the inclination ε of the ecliptic to theequator during the cycle of 40,000 years, from 21°58’ to 24°36’ (currentlyε = 243°30’).The periods of cooling and warming of the climate occurring 10,000 yearsago (in Holocene) are known from the research on organic substances (and

Fig. 2. Changes of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (upper diagram) and of palaeo-temperature (lower diagram) during the last 160,000 years, on the basis of ice cores at theVostok station (WMO, 1990).


5500

6000

6500

7000

-160000 -120000 -80000 -40000 0 40000 80000

MJ.m -2Su

ms of

solar

radia

tion (

III -

IX ),

φ = 65

o

64 00045 000

85 000

Holocene

Wurm

Years

9500 10 300

134 500 131 000

21 500 24 000

Fig. 3. Changes of solar radiation sums (from March through September) at the latitudeφ = 65°N during the last 160,000 years (with a prediction for up to 100,000 years).

Fig. 4. Changes of air temperature in Antarctica and of CO2 concentration in the atmosphereduring the last 400,000 years (Petit et al., 1999).


the content of the oxygen isotope 18O) deposited in Lake Gościąż (Boryczka,Wicik, 1994). The periods of cooling and warming of Europe’s climate corre-spond to the local minimal and maximal values of the changes in timey = f (t) of the concentration of the organic substances in the sediments ofLake Gościąż (Fig. 6). The content of organic substances in the sediments inthe period from –20,000 to –12,540 years ago was reconstructed from the

Fig. 5. Changes of solar radiation sums (from March through September) at the latitudeφ = 65°N during the last 400,000 years.

Fig. 6. Periods of warming and cooling of climate in Poland during the last 20,000 years, onthe basis of the organic substances deposited in the sediments of Lake Gościąż (the line y =f(t) is the resultant of cycle interference).

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 107interferences present in the spectrum of the following cycles: 50, 230, 360,390, 540, 590, 1120, 1380, 1770, 2970, 6080 and 12,380 years. In the lami-nated sediments of Lake Gościąż it was possible to determine the calendartime (adding the yearly increases of the sediment cores). The main periodsof cooling and warming of the climate during the last 20,000 years in Po-land and in North America (Keree, Two Creeks) are synchronous.The reconstruction of the air temperature in the surface layer of the at-mosphere in various places on the Earth in the last millennium (based onreduction of the glaciers, width of the tree rings and direct measurements)indicates three basic time intervals: “mediaeval optimum” (800 –1200),“little ice age” (1400 –1900) and the current warming (from 1900).

PERIODS OF COOLING AND WARMINGOF THE CLIMATE IN RECENT CENTURIES

During the last 400 years three main periods of cooling of Europe’s cli-mate occurred, with the smaller average global air temperature in the north-ern hemisphere around the years 1600, 1700 and 1830. The best investigated(on the basis on instrumental data) is the last one, the period of the greatestcooling in Europe. One should note that this period occurred during the threeweakest and prolonged (12- to 13-year) cycles of solar activity (1798 –1833),specifically during the weakest 13-year cycle of sunspots (1811–1823, duringthe absolute secular minimum since the year 1700).The year 1811 was a special year as regards the situation of the solarsystem. The distance of the Sun from the centre of mass of the system wassmallest (0.14 of the Sun’s radius) and the acceleration of the Sun, greatest.This most recent period of global cooling of the climate (also in Poland)occurred during an intensified volcanic activity, after the most explosive vol-canic eruptions, thus when the content of the volcanic dust in the atmos-phere was very large, i.e., when the DVI coefficient was large (Lamb 1974):1803, Cotopaxi (DVI = 1100); 1815, Tambora (DVI = 3000); 1835, Cosiguina(DVI = 4000, the absolute maximum).The decrease of the direct solar radiation after the volcanic eruptions ofKrakatau (Indonesia, 1883) and Hekla (Iceland, 1970) was of global charac-ter. After the eruption of the volcano Tambora (Indonesia, 1815) the dustreached the altitude of 60 –70 km. Volcanoes of the explosive type eject intothe atmosphere large amounts of dusts and gases (HCL, SO2, CO2, H2, Sand others). Sulphate aerosols, which can remain in the stratosphere for aslong as around 15 years, have the greatest influence on the scattering ofsolar radiation. They cause the warming of the stratosphere, while in thelower layers of the troposphere a cooling occurs, caused by the decrease ofthe radiation reaching the Earth’s surface.From the thermoenergy balance it follows that the decrease of the totalradiation by as little as 1% with constant albedo cause the decrease of theaverage temperature near the Earth’s surface by 1.2 –1.5°C. The decrease of

JERZY BORYCZKA, MARIA STOPA-BORYCZKA108the total radiation by 1.5 –1.6°C may already lead to the glaciation of theEarth – from the poles to the equator (Sellers, 1962, Budyko, 1971).One of characteristic features of the air temperature in Europe in the19th – 20th centuries is its periodicity with the periods equal to around 8, 11,100 and 180 years. Air temperature cycles were determined by means of themethod of “regression sinusoids” in the range of 2.0 – 200 years with the in-terval ∆Θ = 0.1 years. This method of determination of the spectrum, elab-orated in the Department of Climatology of the Warsaw University (Borycz-ka, 1998) consists in fitting the consecutive sinusoids (in accordance with thecondition of smallest squares) with the equations T = a0 + b sin (2πt/Θ + c)with the variable period Č to the results of the measurements. The sequenceof the residual variance values ε12, ε 22,…, εn2 is the so-called spectrum, withthe local minima being the periods Θ.In Europe a period of air temperature with duration of around 8 yearsand large amplitudes ∆T = 2b = Tmax – Tmin (Table 1) dominates.The range of oscillation of the air temperature in, for instance, Warsawin the winter during the 8.3-year cycle is equal to ∆T = 1.5°C and that of theyearly average (7.7-year period), 0.6°C.

Locality Winter Summer Locality Winter SummerΘ ∆T Θ T Θ ∆T Θ ∆T

WarsawCracowWrocławLvivPragueBerlin

8.38.38.38.38.37.7

1.591.871.531.301.061.54

7.17.87.87.97.87.8

0.660.330.270.560.440.55

GenevaViennaRomeStockholmCopenhagenMoscow

7.78.37.97.87.87.9

0.620.870.301.331.240.76

7.88.48.47.88.38.3

0.400.380.320.400.510.60


WarsawCracowWrocławLvivPragueBerlin

11.611.311.411.211.011.0

0.530.840.741.110.420.42

11.311.411.510.711.111.6

0.220.260.420.060.190.18

GenevaViennaRomeStockholmCopenhagenMoscow

11.011.011.811.311.111.4

0.400.440.440.290.261.62

11.311.010.711.611.511.3

0.280.120.390.380.480.30

Table 2.An 11-year period of the air temperature in Europe

Table 1.An 8-year period of the air temperature in Europe

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 109The periodicity of the air temperature, with the period equal to around11 years, has been known for a long time. This phenomenon is connected tothe 11-year cycle of sunspots. In Table 2, periods of air temperature (around11 years) and of amplitude ∆T (°C) in selected localities in winter and sum-mer are shown.The range of temperature fluctuations in this cycle (around 11 years) isgenerally over twice as large in the winter than in the summer.In the measurement sequences of the air temperature in Europe one canfind periods of around 100 and 180 years (Tables 3 and 4).

Table 3.A 100-year period of the air temperature in Europe

Table 4.A 180-year period of the air temperature in Europe

Two main centres of the atmospheric pressure field exert a dominatinginfluence on the climate of Europe (and of Poland): Icelandic Low and AzoresHigh. These pressure centres related to the difference between the watertemperature in the Northern Atlantic and that of the land show a negativecorrelation during the year. If the pressure in the Azores High decreases thenthe pressure in the Icelandic Low increases and vice versa. This is the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). One of the measures of the zonal(parallel) circulation is the NAO index, defined by P.D. Jones and others(1997) as the standardised difference in pressure at sea level between


WarsawCracowWrocławLvivPragueVienna

113.490.0

123.3108.8116.1

89.8

1.220.481.661.301.440.79

75.088.075.074.1

118.396.1

0.880.670.501.330.680.58

BasleCopenhagenEnglandStockholmUppsalaInnsbruck

85.580.599.386.3

102.769.9

0.140.220.440.551.480.80

87.689.6

102.589.494.084.6

0.640.270.200.510.790.50


WarsawCracowLvivGenevaBerlinRome

179.0163.8

—144.1212.8

—

0,440.43

—1.061.18

—

208.2—

195.3248.3

—224.9

0.66—

1.001.09

—1.40

BasleCopenhagenEnglandStockholmUppsalaInnsbruck

——

166.9184.6182.3169.8

——

0.480.492.501.45

227.4211.6204.6

—192.8

—

0.261.190.34

—0.39

—

JERZY BORYCZKA, MARIA STOPA-BORYCZKA110Gibraltar and the southwestern Iceland. The NAO index in the years 1825 –2000 is characterised by the periodicity with the cycle equal to a few, around15 and around 100 years (Table 5).

Table 5.Periods Θ of the NAO index in the years 1825 – 1998 (R = correlation coefficient)

Summer WinterQ R Q R

7,810,311,113,839,583,2

0,170,200,090,140,140,17

7,88,3

11,315,537,1

105,1

0,270,240,130,170,160,17

In the measurement sequences of the NAO index in the winter a cycle ofaround 8 years dominates, similarly as it is the case for the air tempera-ture.TENDENCIES OF CLIMATE CHANGES IN EUROPE

IN THE 17TH– 20TH CENTURIES

The Earth’s climate in the 19th – 20th centuries underwent a systematicwarming. The average global air temperature in the years 1890 –1985 in-creased during the winters from 0.2°C near the equator to 5°C in the polarzone. The increase of the average global temperature, calculated on the ba-sis of measurements of the air and sea surface temperatures in the years1861–1991 is equal, on the average, to 0.5°C.Table 6 (Boryczka, Stopa-Boryczka et al., 2003) shows the tendencies ofthe air temperature in Europe, determined according to the equations of theregression line T = A0 + At (directional coefficients A are expressed in°C/100 years). These tendencies characterise the average increase of the airtemperature during any 100-year period in the appropriate time intervals.In general, the air temperature in European cities tends to increase in thewinter (A > 0) and decrease in the summer (A > 0).In Europe it is above all winters that are getting increasingly warmer.For instance, in Warsaw in the years 1779 –1998 winters were getting warmerby 1.1°C per 100 years while summers are getting colder by almost 0.1°C.An even greater increase of the air temperature in the winter occurred inCracow (1.5°C/100 years) and in Moscow (1.6°C/100 years). The average yearlyair temperature increased in Warsaw by 0.6°C, in Cracow by 0.8°C and inMoscow by 0.7°C per 100 years.


Simultaneously with the increase of the average global air temperaturean increase of the sea level occurs: on the average, by 10 – 25 cm in the lastcentury. The level of the Baltic Sea, according to the water level in Świno-ujście in the years 1811 – 1990, rises on the average by 4.5 cm per 100 years(Kożuchowski, Boryczka, 1977). The rising of the sea and ocean levels in the19th – 20th centuries is partly the result of the cubical expansion of water.The volume of the ocean water (not counting seas) is at present equal to1379.4 million km2 and the average depth of the oceans, 3704 metres. A risein the ocean level by 18 cm corresponds to the increase of the water temper-ature by 1°C (from 4°C to 5°C).The chronological sequences of Wolf numbers (numbers of sunspots) andof the values of air temperature show that the temperature during the max-imal solar activity in the 11-year cycle is higher than during the minimalsolar activity (the wood increase in forests is also larger: the tree rings arethicker). This results from the dependence of the distribution of heat on theEarth’s surface on solar activity.The influx of solar energy to the Earth’s surface depends on solar activ-ity. During the 11-year cycle of solar activity the solar constant varies. It islargest near the maxima of sunspots (Kondratyev and Nikolski, 1970). Short-term changes in solar activity do not play a large role in the shaping of theEarth’s climate because of a very slow penetration of heat to the deeper lay-ers of the Earth. More significant are long cycles of solar activity (Boryczka,1998): 102- and 187-year cycles. In these cycles, near the maxima, largeamounts of energy accumulate in the deeper layers of the continents andoceans; this energy affects the general atmospheric circulation.The tendency of the solar activity (intensity of its radiation), observed in thelast two centuries, to increase might significantly contribute to the gradual

Table 6.Tendencies of the air temperature changes in some European cities (°C/100 years)

Locality Period Winter Summer YearWarsawCracowWrocławLvivPragueBerlinGenevaViennaRomeStockholmCopenhagenMoscow

1779-19981827-19971792-20021824-20021771-19901769-19901769-19801775-20021811-19891756-19941768-19911779-2002

1.121.480.690.530.250.320.510.690.040.860.941.65

-0.060.310.25

-0.22-0.25-0.39-0.40-0.08-0.10-0.080.05

-0.15

0.580.820.520.20

-0.020.130.510.270.090.460.550.68


warming of the Earth’s climate, through the changes in the overall atmos-pheric circulation. This is evidenced, a.o., by the similar regression lines ofthe standardised values of Wolf numbers and of air temperature values inWarsaw in the years 1779–2000: W’ = 0.0037t – 6.956, T’ = 0.0047t – 8.940(Fig. 7).The dominating contribution of the solar radiation in the shaping of theEarth’s climate in the gradual warming of the climate in the 19th – 20th cen-turies is evidenced by the synchronic changes of the average air tempera-ture in the northern hemisphere in the years 1856 –2002 (Fig. 8) (Bernes,2003) and of the consecutive averages of the 11-year Wolf numbers (Fig. 9).The deviations of the average air temperature from the average during theyears 1856 –1900 in the northern hemisphere are usually negative until 1920,while those after the year 1920 are positive. The years 1920 – 2002 are char-acterised by significant warming with the local minimum in the 1970s. Thesame is true in the case of the deviations of the consecutive averages of Wolf

Fig. 7. Approximate equations of the Wolf number regression lines and of the air temperaturein Warsaw in the years 1779 – 2000 (standardised values).

Fig. 8. Average yearly temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in the years 1856 – 2002(deviations from the average for the years 1856 –1900) (Bernes, 2003).


numbers for the same periods. Until 1925 they are negative while after 1925,positive. The main local minimum of the Wolf numbers corresponds to themain local minimum of the temperature in the 1970s; solar activity in theyears 1925 – 2002 is also much greater than before 1925.The demonstration of the dependence of the solar activity (Wolf numbers)on the changes in the location of the centre of mass of the four largest plan-ets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune) is of key significance for the discov-ering of the causes of the Earth’s climate changes. The physical (as opposedto statistical) model describing adequately the changes in solar activity (Wolfnumbers) in the years 1700 – 2002 (Boryczka, 2003) is a new concept in thisfield. The idea of searching for this dependence consists in a mathematicaldescription of the (to a large extent unknown) physical interactions exertedon the Sun by the individual planets with the periods of revolution: 11.862,29.458, 84.015 and 164.79 years. In the descriptions of these interactions theshares of the consecutive planets in the variability of the mass momentumM = Σ mi ri were isolated; that is, in the changes of the location of the centreof mass of the Solar system; the centre with respect to which the Sun moves.The modulation of the influences of the closer planets on the Sun by thefarther planets, with longer revolution periods, was also taken into account.It is interesting that the changes of the standardised consecutive averagesof the 11-year Wolf numbers and of the consecutive averages of the 11-yearvalues of the mass momentum wi = f ( M i ) (Fig. 10) show a “parallel behav-iour”. It is possible that the four largest planets affect the changes of solaractivity (probably by the change of the Sun’s acceleration in its movement withrespect to the centre of mass of the system). The demonstration of the depend-ence of the solar activity on the location of the centre of mass of the largestplanets supports K.P. Butusov’s hypothesis (1975) about the turbulent ori-gins of sunspots, according to which sunspots are caused by the differencein the acceleration of the surface layers and central layers of the Sun.

Fig. 9. Changes in solar activity (Wolf numbers) in the years 1856 –2002 (deviations from theaverage for the years 1856 –1900).


Fig. 10. Changes in solar activity (standardised Wolf numbers) and in the distance of the centreof mass (mass momentums) of the largest planets in the years 1856 – 2002 (consecutive averagevalues over 11-year periods).

Fig. 11. Change of air temperature in Paris in the years 1757 – 1995: prediction for the years1996 – 2100: a) winter, b) summer.

CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 115It turns out that the contemporary periods of warming and cooling of theEarth’s climate show a strong correlation with the maxima and minimaof the measured mass of CO2 in the atmosphere, but a weak one withthe emission of CO2 estimated on the basis of the amount of burned coal.R.H. Gammon (1984) claims that the course of the changes of the CO2 con-centration in the atmosphere measured in the years 1958 –1984 has threedeep minima: in 1964, 1974 and 1983, in the vicinity of the dates of theminimal solar activity: 1964 (Wmin = 15.3), 1974 (Wmin = 27.6) and 1986(Wmin = 2.0). According to him, these are oscillations corresponding to theabsorption of CO2 by the oceans and the biosphere.The main reasons of the climate warming in the 19th – 20th centuries are:increase of solar activity, decrease of volcanic activity on the Earth in the20th century and the anthropogenic share of the greenhouse effect. It is notknown, however, what is the contribution of each factor to the entire phe-nomenon.The synchronic character of the changes of the sums of solar radiationreaching the Earth (φ = 65°), palaeotemperature (determined on the basis ofthe oxygen isotope O16 or the hydrogen isotope H2 content in the Antarcticice) and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere allows for the conclu-sion that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is greater in the yearswhen the influx of solar radiation to the Earth’s surface is greater. Put itsimply, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is greater when the waterin the oceans is greater, that is, when it is warmer in general.

PREDICTIONS OF AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EUROPEIN THE 21ST CENTURY

The verification of the similarity of the cycles of causes and results is offundamental significance for the identification of the natural causes of theclimate changes on the Earth. A demonstration of the analogous periodicityof the supposed causes, that is, of the astronomical variables (solar activity,parameters of the solar system) and of the results, that is, climatologicalvariables (atmospheric circulation, air temperature) is essential.Periods close to the periods of revolution of the four largest planets aroundthe Sun and of their locations with respect to each other are present in thespectra of the variables listed above.In the predictions it was assumed that the extreme values of the desig-nated cycles with fairly large amplitude (statistically significant) would keeprepeating as they did in the 18th – 20th centuries. Such assumption is justi-fied, a.o., by the 178.9-year planetary cycle. After 178.9 years, the values ofthe parameters of the solar system (distance of the mass centre US from theSun, Sun’s acceleration, resultant of the gravitational force of the planets)are repeated. The plots of the changes of the Wolf numbers (and of the solarconstant) in the years 1700 –1879 and 1880 – 2000, thus after 179 years, arealmost identical. The time interval between the absolute maxima of Wolf


numbers (1778, 1957) is equal to 179 years. A 180-year cycle occurs manytimes in chronological sequences of the palaeotemperature (of the isotope 18O)and of the content of the substances in lake sediments from ten to twentythousand years ago.Prediction functions T = f(t) are resultants of the inference of the statis-tically significant cycles T = a0 + Σ b sin(2π t / Θ + c). For instance, the pre-diction function of the average air temperature in Warsaw in winter is ofthe form:T = – 2,54 + 0,542 sin(2π t/3,31 + 0,5592) + 0,669sin(2π t/5,2 + 0,5598) ++ 0,488 sin(2π t/7,1 + 2,4537) + 0,832sin(2π t/8,3 + 2,5615) ++ 0,483sin(2π t/12,9 + 1,1,2135) + 0,455 sin(2π t/15,3 + 1,1780) ++ 0,458(2π t/18,1 + 1,8846) + 0,260 sin(2π t/22,5 – 2,6135) ++ 0,312sin(2π t/39,6 – 2,5485) + 0,263sin(2π t/73,8 + 2,0027) ++ 0,511sin(2π t/113,4 – 2,9818) + 0,156 sin(2π t/179,0 + 2,0110)

Fig. 12. Change of air temperature in Warsaw in the years 1779 – 1998: prediction for theyears 1999 – 2100: a) winter, b) summer.


An estimate of the accuracy of this prediction function for the air tem-perature in winter are: residual variance ε 2 = 4.34, special correlation coef-ficient Rs = 0.80 and the standard error δ = 2.21°C. The changes of the airtemperature in winter and in summer in Paris, Warsaw and Moscow areshown in Fig. 11–13. In the measurement intervals these are the values ofthe function approximating the function T = f ( t ), while outside these inter-vals prediction values are given. Fig. 11–13 show also the measured valuesof the air temperature (in the winter and summer) in selected localities to-gether with the regression lines. The coldest winters in Warsaw, with theaverage temperature from –4°C to –7°C will occur most likely in the middleof this century: around the year 2050. They will be slightly milder than thosein the beginning of the 19th century, because of the gradually larger contri-bution of the anthropogenic factors. Colder summers (around 17.5°C – 18.0°C),on the other hand, will occur earlier, in the second decade of the 21st century.

Fig. 13. Change of air temperature in Moscow in the years 1779 –2002: prediction for theyears 2003–2100: a) winter, b) summer.

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CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTUREmsg.wgsr.uw.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/13boryczka.pdf · CLIMATE OF THE EUROPE. PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE 101 ... It was probably 2.9