Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science

7/29/2019 Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science

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Climate-oriented approaCh

or learnerS of all ageS

ClimateLiteracyThe Essential Principles

of Climate Science

a g is Cs

Seon Version: Mrh 2009.c.


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about thiS guide

climte Litery: The Essentil Priniples of climteSiene presents informtion tht is eeme importntfor iniviuls n ommunities to know n unerstnout Erths limte, impts of limte hnge, npprohes to pttion or mitigtion. Priniples in theguie n serve s isussion strters or lunhing pointsfor sientifi inquiry. The guie ims to promote greterlimte siene litery y proviing this eutionlfrmework of priniples n onepts. The guie n lsoserve eutors who teh limte siene s wy tomeet ontent stnrs in their siene urriul.

development of the guie egn t workshop sponsore

y the Ntionl Oeni n atmospheri aministrtion(NOaa) n the amerin assoition for the avnementof Siene (aaaS). Multiple siene genies, non-governmentl orgniztions, n numerous iniviulslso ontriute through extensive review n ommentperios. disussion t the Ntionl Siene Fountion nNOaa-sponsore atmospheri Sienes n climte Literyworkshop ontriute sustntilly to the refinement of theoument.

To ownlo this guie n relte ouments, visitwww.glolhnge.gov.


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Climate literaCy:

The Essentil Priniplesof climte SieneEh essentil priniple is supporte y funmentlonepts omprle to those unerlying the NtionlSiene Eution Stnrs (NSES) n the amerinassoition for the avnement of Siene (aaaS)benhmrks for Siene Litery.


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what iS Climate SCienCeliteraCy?

climte Siene Litery is n unerstning of yourinfluene on limte n limtes influene on youn soiety.

a c- s:

unerstns the essentil priniples of Erths

limte system,

knows how to ssess sientifilly reileinformtion out limte,

ommunites out limte n limte hngein meningful wy, n

is le to mke informe n responsileeisions with regr to tions tht myffet limte.

why doeS Climate SCienCeliteraCy matter?

during the 20th entury, Erths glollyverge surfe temperture rose ypproximtely 1.08F (0.6c). aitionlwrming of more thn 0.25F (0.14c) hseen mesure sine 2000. Though the totlinrese my seem smll, it likely represents nextrorinrily rpi rte of hnge ompre tohnges in the previous 10,000 yers.

Over the 21st entury, limte sientists expetErths temperture to ontinue inresing,very likely more thn it i uring the 20thentury. Two ntiipte results re risingglol se level n inresing frequeny nintensity of het wves, roughts, n floos.

These hnges will ffet lmost every spet ofhumn soiety, inluing eonomi prosperity,humn n environmentl helth, nntionl seurity.

Sientifi oservtions n limte moel resultsinite tht humn tivities re now theprimry use of most of the ongoing inrese inErths glolly verge surfe temperture.

climte hnge will ring eonomi nenvironmentl hllenges s well sopportunities, n itizens who hve nunerstning of limte siene will e etterprepre to respon to oth.

Soiety nees itizens who unerstn thelimte system n know how to pplytht knowlege in their reers n intheir enggement s tive memers oftheir ommunities.

climte hnge will ontinue to e signifintelement of puli isourse. Unerstningthe essentil priniples of limte siene willenle ll people to ssess news stories nontriute to their everyy onverstions sinforme itizens.

Climate SCienCe literaCy iS apart of SCienCe literaCy.

Science, mathematics, and technology have aprofound impact on our individual l ives and ourculture. They play a role in almost all human

endeavors, and they affect how we relate to oneanother and the world around us. . . . ScienceLiteracy enables us to make sense of real-world

phenomena, informs our personal and socialdecisions, and serves as a foundation for a lifetimeof learning.

From the amerin assoition for the avnementof Siene, atls of Siene Litery, Volume 2,Projet 2061.

People who re limte siene literte knowtht limte siene n inform our eisionstht improve qulity of life. They hve siunerstning of the limte system, inluingthe nturl n humn-use ftors tht ffet

it. climte siene literte iniviuls unerstnhow limte oservtions n reors s wells omputer moeling ontriute to sientifiknowlege out limte. They re wre of thefunmentl reltionship etween limte nhumn life n the mny wys in whih limte hslwys plye role in humn helth. They hve theility to ssess the vliity of sientifi rgumentsout limte n to use tht informtion to supporttheir eisions.


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Climate ChangeS

Throughout its history, Erths limte hs vrie,refleting the omplex intertions n epenenies ofthe solr, oeni, terrestril, tmospheri, n livingomponents tht mke up plnet Erths systems. For tlest the lst million yers, our worl hs experieneyles of wrming n ooling tht tke pproximtely100,000 yers to omplete. Over the ourse of ehyle, glol verge tempertures hve fllen n then

risen gin y out 9F (5c), eh time tking Erthinto n ie ge n then wrming it gin. This yleis elieve ssoite with regulr hnges in Erthsorit tht lter the intensity of solr energy the plnetreeives. Erths limte hs lso een influene onvery long timesles y hnges in oen irultiontht result from plte tetoni movements. Erthslimte hs hnge ruptly t times, sometimes s result of slower nturl proesses suh s shifts inoen irultion, sometimes ue to suen events suhs mssive volni eruptions. Speies n eosystemshve either pte to these pst limte vritionsor perishe.

While glol limte hs een reltively stle overthe lst 10,000 yersthe spn of humn iviliztion

regionl vritions in limte ptterns hve influenehumn history in profoun wys, plying n integrlrole in whether soieties thrive or file. We nowknow tht the opposite is lso true: humn tivitiesurning fossil fuels n eforesting lrge res ofln, for instnehve h profoun influene onErths limte. In its 2007 Fourth assessment, theIntergovernmentl Pnel on climte chnge (IPcc)stte tht it h very high onfiene tht the glolverge net effet of humn tivities sine 1750 hseen one of wrming. The IPcc ttriutes humnitysglol wrming influene primrily to the inresein three key het-trpping gses in the tmosphere:ron ioxie, methne, n nitrous oxie. The U.S.climte chnge Siene Progrm pulishe finings ingreement with the IPcc report, stting tht stuies

to etet limte hnge n ttriute its uses usingptterns of oserve temperture hnge in spe ntime show ler eviene of humn influenes on thelimte system (ue to hnges in greenhouse gses,erosols, n strtospheri ozone).1

To protet frgile eosystems n to uil sustinleommunities tht re resilient to limte hngeinluing extreme wether n limte eventslimte-literte itizenry is essentil. This limtesiene litery guie ientifies the essentilpriniples n funmentl onepts tht iniviulsn ommunities shoul unerstn out Erthslimte system. Suh unerstning improves ourility to mke eisions out tivities tht inresevulnerility to the impts of limte hnge n to

tke preutionry steps in our lives n livelihoostht woul reue those vulnerilities.

1.Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understandingand Reconciling Differences. Thoms R. Krl, Susn J. Hssol,christopher d. Miller, n Willim L. Murry, eitors, 2006. a Reporty the climte chnge Siene Progrm n the Suommittee on Glolchnge Reserh, Wshington, dc.


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Climate SCienCe literaCy iS anongoing proCeSS.

No single person is expete to unerstnevery etil out ll of the funmentl limtesiene litery onepts. Full omprehensionof these interonnete onepts will require systems-thinking pproh, mening the ility tounerstn omplex interonnetions mong ll ofthe omponents of the limte system. Moreover, slimte siene progresses n s efforts to eute

the people out limtes influene on them ntheir influene on the limte system mture, puliunerstning will ontinue to grow.

climte is n iel interisiplinry theme for lifelonglerning out the sientifi proess n the wys inwhih humns ffet n re ffete y the Erthssystems. This rih topi n e pprohe t mnylevels, from ompring the ily wether with long-term reors to exploring strt representtionsof limte in omputer moels to exmining howlimte hnge impts humn n eosystemhelth. Lerners of ll ges n use t from theirown experiments, t ollete y stellites nother oservtion systems, or reors from rngeof physil, hemil, iologil, geogrphil,

soil, eonomi, n historil soures to explorethe impts of limte n potentil pttion nmitigtion strtegies.

how do we Know what iSSCientifiCally CorreCt?

t p r pcss

Siene is n on-going proess of mkingoservtions n using eviene to test hypotheses.as new ies re evelope n new t reotine, oftentimes enle y new tehnologies,our unerstning evolves. The sientifi ommunityuses highly formlize version of peer review to

vlite reserh results n our unerstningof their signifine. Reserhers esrie theirexperiments, results, n interprettions in sientifimnusripts n sumit them to sientifi journltht speilizes in their fiel of siene. Sientistswho re experts in tht fiel serve s referees forthe journl: they re the mnusript refully to

juge the reliil ity of the reserh esign n hektht the interprettions re supporte y the t.bse on the reviews, journl eitors my eptor rejet mnusripts or sk the uthors to mkerevisions if the stuy hs insuffiient t or unsouninterprettions. Through this proess, only thoseonepts tht hve een esrie through well-oumente reserh n sujete to the srutinyof other experts in the fiel eome pulishe ppers

in siene journls n epte s urrent sieneknowlege. although peer review oes not gurnteetht ny prtiulr pulishe result is vli, it oesprovie high ssurne tht the work hs eenrefully vette for ury y informe expertsprior to pulition. The overwhelming mjority ofpeer-reviewe ppers out glol limte hngeknowlege tht humn tivities re sustntillyontriuting ftors. A meltwater stream on the Greenland Ice Sheet ows into th

ie through tunnel lle moulin. aout hlf of the lossof Greenlands ice mass ows into the North Atlantic Oceans melt wter. Liqui wter, whih is enser thn ie, npenetrte through the ie sheet, luriting the unersie, lso elerte ie loss. Wrmer tempertures use meltingin the summer months, which leads to faster ow, drawingmore of the ie sheet own to wrmer, lower ltitues.

Source:RogerJ.Bra

ithwaite,TheUniversityofManchester,UK


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Climate SCienCe literaCy iSan underStanding of

the ClimateS influenCeon you and SoCietyand your influenCe

on Climate


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informed Climate deCiSionSrequire an integrated approaCh.

In the oming ees, sientists expet limtehnge to hve n inresing impt on humn nnturl systems. In wrmer worl, essiility tofoo, wter, rw mterils, n energy re likely tohnge. Humn helth, ioiversity, eonomi stility,n ntionl seurity re lso expete to e ffetey limte hnge. climte moel projetions suggesttht negtive effets of limte hnge will signifintly

outweigh positive ones. The ntions ility to preprefor n pt to new onitions my e exeee s therte of limte hnge inreses.

Reuing our vulnerility to these impts epens notonly upon our ility to unerstn limte siene nthe implitions of limte hnge, ut lso upon ourility to integrte n use tht knowlege effetively.chnges in our eonomy n infrstruture s well siniviul ttitues, soietl vlues, n governmentpoliies will e require to lter the urrent trjetoryof limtes impt on humn lives. The resolve ofiniviuls, ommunities, n ountries to ientify nimplement effetive mngement strtegies for ritilinstitutionl n nturl resoures will e neessry toensure the stility of oth humn n nturl systems

s tempertures rise.

This limte siene litery oument fouses primrilyon the physil n iologil siene spets of limten limte hnge. Yet s ntions n the interntionommunity seek solutions to glol limte hngeover the oming ees, more omprehensive,interisiplinry pproh to limte literyone thtinlues eonomi n soil onsiertionswill ply vitl role in knowlegele plnning, eision mking,n governne. a new effort is in evelopment withinthe soil sienes ommunity to proue ompnionoument tht will ress these spets of limtelitery. Together, these ouments will promoteinforme eision-mking n effetive systems-levelresponses to limte hnge tht reflet funmentl

unerstning of limte siene. It is impertivetht these responses to limte hnge emre thefollowing guiing priniple.

agriulturl engineersinspet ry strem.

Source:ScottBauer,USDA


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a. climte informtion n e use to reuevulnerilities or enhne the resiliene of ommunitiesn eosystems ffete y limte hnge. continuing

to improve sientifi unerstning of the limtesystem n the qulity of reports to poliy n eision-mkers is ruil.

b. Reuing humn vulnerility to the impts oflimte hnge epens not only upon our ility tounerstn limte siene, ut lso upon our ility tointegrte tht knowlege into humn soiety. deisionstht involve Erths limte must e me with nunerstning of the omplex inter-onnetions mongthe physil n iologil omponents of the Erthsystem s well s the onsequenes of suh eisionson soil, eonomi, n ulturl systems.

c. The impts of limte hnge my ffet the seurityof ntions. Reue vilility of wter, foo, n lnn le to ompetition n onflit mong humns,potentilly resulting in lrge groups of limte refugees.

d. Humns my e le to mitigte limte hngeor lessen its severity y reuing greenhouse gsonentrtions through proesses tht move ron outof the tmosphere or reue greenhouse gs emissions.

E. a omintion of strtegies is neee to reuegreenhouse gs emissions. The most immeitestrtegy is onservtion of oil, gs, n ol, whihwe rely on s fuels for most of our trnsporttion,heting, ooling, griulture, n eletriity. Short-termstrtegies involve swithing from ron-intensive torenewle energy soures, whih lso requires uiling

new infrstruture for lterntive energy soures.Long-term strtegies involve innovtive reserh n funmentl hnge in the wy humns use energy.

F. Humns n pt to limte hnge y reuing theirvulnerility to its impts. ations suh s moving tohigher groun to voi rising se levels, plnting newrops tht will thrive uner new limte onitions, orusing new uiling tehnologies represent pttionstrtegies. apttion often requires finnilinvestment in new or enhne reserh, tehnology,n infrstruture.

G. ations tken y iniviuls, ommunities, sttes,n ountries ll influene limte. Prties n

poliies followe in homes, shools, usinesses,n governments n ffet limte. climte-relte eisions me y one genertion nprovie opportunities s well s limit the rnge ofpossiilities open to the next genertion. Stepstowr reuing the impt of limte hngemy influene the present genertion y proviingother enefits suh s improve puli helthinfrstruture n sustinle uilt environments.

GUIdING PRINcIPLEFOR INFORMEdcLIMaTE dEcISIONS:Humns n tke tions to reuelimte hnge n its impts.

Source:NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenterImagebyRetoS

tckli(landsurface,shallowwater,clouds)

ts scc s s -c e . us cc s-s ss, scss szssc s ss sccs, s c, cs sss, -c s s k (.386 s ) .


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a. Sunlight rehing the Erth n het the ln,oen, n tmosphere. Some of tht sunlight isreflete k to spe y the surfe, lous,or ie. Muh of the sunlight tht rehes Erth issore n wrms the plnet.

b. When Erth emits the sme mount of energy sit sors, its energy uget is in lne, n itsverge temperture remins stle.

c. The tilt of Erths xis reltive to its orit roun theSun results in preitle hnges in the urtionof ylight n the mount of sunlight reeivet ny ltitue throughout yer. These hngesuse the nnul yle of sesons n ssoitetemperture hnges.

the Sun iS the primary SourCe of energy for earthS Climate SyStem.1

c: Modied from the Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences Global Warming: Facts & Our Future 2004

e greenhouse effet is nturlenomenon wherey het-trpping gsesthe tmosphere, primrily wter vpor,ep the Erths surfe wrm. Humntivities, primrily urning fossil fuels nnging ln over ptterns, re inresinge onentrtions of some of these gses,

mplifying the nturl greenhouse effet.

d. Grul hnges in Erths rottion n orit rounthe Sun hnge the intensity of sunlight reeive inour plnets polr n equtoril regions. For t lesthe lst 1 million yers, these hnges ourre in100,000-yer yles tht proue ie ges n the

shorter wrm perios etween them.

E. a signifint inrese or erese in the Sunsenergy output woul use Erth to wrm or ool.Stellite mesurements tken over the pst 30 yersshow tht the Suns energy output hs hnge onlyslightly n in oth iretions. These hnges in theSuns energy re thought to e too smll to e theuse of the reent wrming oserve on Erth.


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a. Erths limte is influene y intertions involvingthe Sun, oen, tmosphere, lous, ie, ln, n life.climte vries y region s result of lol ifferenesin these intertions.

b. covering 70% of Erths surfe, the oen exerts mjor ontrol on limte y ominting Erths energyn wter yles. It hs the pity to sor lrgemounts of solr energy. Het n wter vpor rereistriute glolly through ensity-riven oenurrents n tmospheri irultion. chnges in oenirultion use y tetoni movements or l rgeinfluxes of fresh wter from melting polr ie n leto signifint n even rupt hnges in limte, othlolly n on glol sles.

c. The mount of solr energy sore or rite yErth is moulte y the tmosphere n epenson its omposition. Greenhouse gsessuh s wtervpor, ron ioxie, n methneour nturllyin smll mounts n sor n relese het energy

more effiiently thn unnt tmospheri gses likenitrogen n oxygen. Smll inreses in ron ioxieonentrtion hve lrge effet on the limte system.

d. The unne of greenhouse gses in the tmosphereis ontrolle y iogeohemil yles tht ontinullymove these omponents etween their oen, ln,life, n tmosphere reservoirs. The unne ofron in the tmosphere is reue through sefloorumultion of mrine seiments n umultion ofplnt iomss n is inrese through eforesttionn the urning of fossil fuels s well s throughother proesses.

E. airorne prtiultes, lle erosols, hve omplex

effet on Erths energy lne: they n useoth ooling, y refleting inoming sunlight k outto spe, n wrming, y soring n relesinghet energy in the tmosphere. Smll soli n liquiprtiles n e lofte into the tmosphere through vriety of nturl n mn-me proesses, inluingvolni eruptions, se spry, forest fires, n emissionsgenerte through humn tivities.

F. The interonneteness of Erths systems mens tht signifint hnge in ny one omponent of the limtesystem n influene the equilirium of the entireErth system. Positive feek loops n mplifythese effets n trigger rupt hnges in the limtesystem. These omplex intertions my result inlimte hnge tht is more rpi n on lrger sle

thn projete y urrent limte moels.

2Climate iS regulated byComplex interaCtionSamong ComponentS ofthe earth SyStem.

Source:Astronautphotogra

phISS015-E-10469,courtesyNASA/JSCG

atewaytoAstronautPhotographyofEarth.

Solr power rives Erths limte. Energyfrom the Sun hets the surfe, wrms thetmosphere, n powers the oen urrents.


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life on earth dependSon, iS Shaped by, andaffeCtS Climate.

3

a. Iniviul orgnisms survive within speifi rngesof temperture, preipittion, humiity, n sunlight.Orgnisms expose to limte onitions outsie theirnorml rnge must pt or migrte, or they willperish.

b. The presene of smll mounts of het-trppinggreenhouse gses in the tmosphere wrms Erthssurfe, resulting in plnet tht sustins liquiwter n life.

c. chnges in limte onitions n ffet the helthn funtion of eosystems n the survivl of entirespeies. The istriution ptterns of fossils showeviene of grul s well s rupt extintionsrelte to limte hnge in the pst.

d. a rnge of nturl reors shows tht the lst 10,000yers hve een n unusully stle perio in Erthslimte history. Moern humn soieties evelopeuring this time. The griulturl, eonomi, ntrnsporttion systems we rely upon re vulnerle ifthe limte hnges signifintly.

E. Lifeinluing miroes, plnts, n nimls nhumnsis mjor river of the glol ron ylen n influene glol limte y moifying thehemil mkeup of the tmosphere. The geologireor shows tht life hs signifintly ltere thetmosphere uring Erths history.

Source:SteveFisher

Kelp forests n their ssoiteommunities of orgnisms live in oolwters off the ost of cliforni.


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a. climte is etermine y the long-term pttern oftemperture n preipittion verges n extremes t lotion. climte esriptions n refer to res th tre lol, regionl, or glol in extent. climte n eesrie for ifferent time intervls, suh s ees,

yers, sesons, months, or speifi tes of the yer.

b. climte is not the sme thing s wether. Wetheris the minute-y-minute vrile onition of thetmosphere on lol sle. climte is oneptulesription of n res verge wether onitionsn the extent to whih those onitions vry over longtime intervls.

c. climte hnge is signifint n persistent hnge inn res verge limte onitions or their extremes.Sesonl vritions n multi-yer yles (for exmple,the El Nio Southern Osilltion) tht proue wrm,ool, wet, or ry perios ross ifferent regions re nturl prt of limte vriility. They o not representlimte hnge.

d. Sientifi oservtions inite tht glol limte hshnge in the pst, is hnging now, n will hnge inthe future. The mgnitue n iretion of this hngeis not the sme t ll lotions on Erth.

E. bse on eviene from tree rings, other nturlreors, n sientifi oservtions me roun theworl, Erths verge temperture is now wrmer thnit hs een for t lest the pst 1,300 yers. avergetempertures hve inrese mrkely in the pst 50yers, espeilly in the North Polr Region.

F. Nturl proesses riving Erths long-term limtevriility o not explin the rpi limte hnge

oserve in reent ees. The only explntion thtis onsistent with ll ville eviene is tht humnimpts re plying n inresing role in limtehnge. Future hnges in limte my e rpiompre to historil hnges.

G. Nturl proesses tht remove ron ioxie fromthe tmosphere operte slowly when ompre to theproesses tht re now ing it to the tmosphere.Thus, ron ioxie introue into the tmospheretoy my remin there for entury or more. Othergreenhouse gses, inluing some rete y humns,my remin in the tmosphere for thousns of yers.

Climate varieS over SpaCe andtime through both naturaland man-made proCeSSeS.4

Source:NationalSnowandIceDataCenter,W.O.Field,B.F.Molnia

Muir Glier, august1941, Willim O. Fiel

Muir Glier, august2004, brue F. Molni


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our underStanding of the Climate SyStem iSimproved through obServationS, theoretiCalStudieS, and modeling.5

a. The omponents n proesses of Erths limtesystem re sujet to the sme physil lws s therest of the Universe. Therefore, the ehvior of thelimte system n e unerstoo n preitethrough reful, systemti stuy.

b. Environmentl oservtions re the fountion forunerstning the limte system. From the ottomof the oen to the surfe of the Sun, instrumentson wether sttions, uoys, stellites, n otherpltforms ollet limte t. To lern out pstlimtes, sientists use nturl reors, suh s treerings, ie ores, n seimentry lyers. Historiloservtions, suh s ntive knowlege n personl

journls, lso oument pst limte hnge.

c. Oservtions, experiments, n theory re use toonstrut n refine omputer moels tht representthe limte system n mke preitions out itsfuture ehvior. Results from these moels le toetter unerstning of the linkges etween the

tmosphere-oen system n limte onitionsn inspire more oservtions n experiments. Overtime, this itertive proess will result in more relileprojetions of future limte onitions.

c: B. Longworth 2008

a rosette evie ontining 36 sewter smplesis retrieve in the Southern Oen. Sewtersmples from vrious epths re nlyzeto mesure the oens ron lne.

d. Our unerstning of limte iffers in importntwys from our unerstning of wether. climtesientists ility to preit limte ptterns months,yers, or ees into the future is onstriney ifferent limittions thn those fe y

meteorologists in foresting wether ys to weeksinto the future.1

E. Sientists hve onute extensive reserh on thefunmentl hrteristis of the limte system ntheir unerstning will ontinue to improve. currentlimte hnge projetions re relile enough to helphumns evlute potentil eisions n tions inresponse to limte hnge.

1.bse on climte chnge: an Informtion Sttementof the amerin Meteorologil Soiety, 2007


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human aCtivitieSare impaCting theClimate SyStem.

6

a. The overwhelming onsensus of sientifi stuies onlimte inites tht most of the oserve inresein glol verge tempertures sine the ltter prtof the 20th entury is very likely ue to humntivities, primrily from inreses in greenhouse

gs onentrtions resulting from the urning offossil fuels.2

b. Emissions from the wiespre urning of fossilfuels sine the strt of the Inustril Revolution hveinrese the onentrtion of greenhouse gses inthe tmosphere. beuse these gses n remin inthe tmosphere for hunres of yers efore eingremove y nturl proesses, their wrming influeneis projete to persist into the next entury.

c. Humn tivities hve ffete the ln, oens,n tmosphere, n these hnges hve ltereglol limte ptterns. burning fossil fuels, relesinghemils into the tmosphere, reuing the mountof forest over, n rpi expnsion of frming,

evelopment, n inustril tivities re relesingron ioxie into the tmosphere n hnging thelne of the limte system.

d. Growing eviene shows tht hnges in mnyphysil n iologil systems re linke to humn-use glol wrming.3 Some hnges resultingfrom humn tivities hve erese the pityof the environment to support vrious speies nhve sustntilly reue eosystem ioiversity neologil resiliene.

E. Sientists n eonomists preit tht there wille oth positive n negtive impts from glollimte hnge. If wrming exees 2 to 3c (3.6 to

5.4F) over the next entury, the onsequenes of thenegtive impts re likely to e muh greter thn theonsequenes of the positive impts.

Soiety relies hevily on energytht is generte y urning fossilfuelsol, oil, n nturl gs.

Source::A.Palmer,2008

2.bse on IPcc, 2007: The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I

3.bse on IPcc, 2007: Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II


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Climate Change will haveConSequenCeS for the earthSyStem and human liveS.

7

a. Melting of ie sheets n gliers, omine with thetherml expnsion of sewter s the oens wrm,is using se level to rise. Sewter is eginningto move onto low-lying ln n to ontminteostl fresh wter soures n eginning to

sumerge ostl filities n rrier islns. Se-level rise inreses the risk of mge to homesn uilings from storm surges suh s those thtompny hurrines.

b. climte plys n importnt role in the glolistriution of freshwter resoures. chngingpreipittion ptterns n temperture onitions willlter the istriution n vilility of freshwterresoures, reuing relile ess to wter formny people n their rops. Winter snowpk nmountin gliers tht provie wter for humn usere elining s result of glol wrming.

c. Inients of extreme wether re projete toinrese s result of limte hnge. Mny lotions

will see sustntil inrese in the numer of hetwves they experiene per yer n likely eresein episoes of severe ol. Preipittion events reexpete to eome less frequent ut more intensein mny res, n roughts will e more frequentn severe in res where verge preipittion isprojete to erese.2

d. The hemistry of oen wter is hnge ysorption of ron ioxie from the tmosphere.Inresing ron ioxie levels in the tmosphereis using oen wter to eome more ii,thretening the survivl of shell-uiling mrinespeies n the entire foo we of whih they re prt.

E. Eosystems on ln n in the oen hve eenn will ontinue to e isture y limte hnge.animls, plnts, teri, n viruses will migrteto new res with fvorle limte onitions.Infetious iseses n ertin speies will e le toinve res tht they i not previously inhit.

F. Humn helth n mortlity rtes will e ffete toifferent egrees in speifi regions of the worl s result of limte hnge. although ol-relte ethsre preite to erese, other risks re preite torise. The iniene n geogrphil rnge of limte-sensitive infetious isesessuh s mlri, enguefever, n tik-orne iseseswill inrese. drought-reue rop yiels, egre ir n wter qulity,

n inrese hzrs in ostl n low-lying reswill ontriute to unhelthy onitions, prtiulrly forthe most vulnerle popultions.3

Source:IowaNa

tionalGuardphotobySgt.ChadD.Nelson

Iow Ntionl Gur prepring toput sngs in ple on leveein Kingston, Iow, to protetroughly 50,000 res of frmlnthreatened by ood waters.


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Key definitionS

w The speifi onitions of the tmosphere t prtiulr ple n time, mesurein terms of vriles th t inlue temperture, preipittion, louiness, humiity, irpressure, n win.

w fcs a preition out the speifi tmospheri onitions expete for lotion in the short-term future (hours to ys).

C The long-term verge of onitions in the tmosphere, oen, n ie sheets nse ie esrie y sttistis, suh s mens n extremes.

C fcs a preition out verge or extreme limte onitions for region inthe long-term future (sesons to ees).

C v Nturl hnges in limte tht fll within the norml rnge of extremesfor prtiulr region, s mesure y temperture, preipittion, n frequeny of events.drivers of limte vriility inlue the El Nio Southern Osilltion n other phenomen.

C C a signifint n persistent hnge in the men stte of the limte orits vriility. climte hnge ours in response to hnges in some spet of Erthsenvironment: these inlue regulr hnges in Erths orit out the sun, re-rrngement ofontinents through plte tetoni motions, or nthropogeni moifition of the tmosphere.

g w The oserve inrese in verge temperture ner the Erths surfen in the lowest lyer of the tmosphere. In ommon usge, glol wrming often refersto the wrming tht hs ourre s result of inrese emissions of greenhouse gsesfrom humn tivities. Glol wrming is type of limte hnge; it n lso le to otherhnges in limte onitions, suh s hnges in preipittion ptterns.

C Ss The mtter, energy, n proesses involve in intertions mong Erthstmosphere, hyrosphere, ryosphere, lithosphere, iosphere, n Erth-Sun intertions.

lk, v lk, e lk, v C These terms re use y theIntergovernmentl Pnel on climte chnge (IPcc) to inite how prole it is tht preite outome will our in the limte system, oring to expert jugment. a resulttht is eeme likely to our hs greter thn 66% proility of ourring. a verylikely result hs greter thn 90% proility. Extremely likely mens greter thn 95%proility, n virtully ertin mens greter thn 99% proility.

m Humn interventions to reue the soures of greenhouse gses or enhne thesinks tht remove them from the tmosphere.

v The egree to whih physil, iologil, n soio-eonomi systems resuseptile to n unle to ope with verse impts of limte hnge. 2

a Inititives n mesures to reue the vulnerility of nturl n humnsystems ginst tul or expete limte hnge effets.3

fss s Energy soures suh s petroleum, ol, or nturl gs, whih re erive fromliving mtter tht existe uring previous geologi time perio.

fck The proess through whih system is ontrolle, hnge, or moulte inresponse to its own output. Positive feek results in mplifition of the system output;negtive feek reues the output of system.

C Cc cirultion of ron toms through the Erth systems s result ofphotosyntheti onversion of ron ioxie into omplex orgni ompouns y plnts,whih re onsume y other orgnisms, n return of the ron to the tmosphere sron ioxie s result of respirtion, ey of orgnisms, n omustion of fossil fuels.

1.Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understandingand Reconciling Differences. Thoms R. Krl, Susn J. Hssol,christopher d. Miller, n Willim L. Murry, eitors, 2006. a Reporty the climte chnge Siene Progrm n the Suommittee on Glolchnge Reserh, Wshington, dc.

2.bse on IPcc, 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II

3.bse on IPcc, 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III


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about thiS guide

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FURTHER INFORMaTION

For future revisions n hngesto this oument or to seeoumenttion of the proess useto evelop this rohure, plese visitwww.limte.no.gov/eution.

In ition, further informtionrelting to limte litery n limteresoures n e foun t:

earthobservatory.nasa.gov www.epa.gov/climatechange http://nsdl.org www.climate.gov

Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate

Siene presents informtion tht is eememportnt for iniviuls n ommunities to known unerstn out Erths limte, impts oflimte hnge, n pprohes to pttion ormitigtion. Priniples in the guie n serve sisussion strters or lunhing points for sientifinquiry. The guie ims to promote greter climatescience literacyy proviing this eutionlrmework of priniples n onepts. The guie

n lso serve eutors who teh limte sienes wy to meet ontent stnrs in theirsiene urriul.

development of the guie egn t workshopsponsore y the Ntionl Oeni n atmospheriaministrtion (NOaa) n the amerinassoition for the avnement of Siene (aaaS).Multiple siene genies, non-governmentlorgniztions, n numerous iniviuls lsoontriute through extensive review n ommentperios. disussion t the Ntionl SieneFountion- n NOaa-sponsore atmospheriSienes n climte Litery workshop ontriutesustntilly to the refinement of the oument.

To ownlo this guie n relte ouments,visit www.glolhnge.gov.

For n up to te list of prtners plese refer to U.S. Glolchnge Reserh Progrm t http://www.glolhnge.gov.

This document has been reviewed by the above Federal agencies. Any opinions, findings,

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Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science