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Climate Forecasting Unit
Melanie Davis (IC3) & Jean-Pierre Ceron (Meteo France)
[email protected], [email protected]
EUPORIAS WP41Climate Information and Decision Making
Starts: M25 (November 2014)
Ends: M43 (May 2016)
EUPORIAS General Assembly, Toulouse, 21st October 2014
Climate Forecasting Unit
Tasks
Information input from WP12 stakeholder interviews and RT2 climate forecasts and case studies
T4.1.1 (All): 5% timeChoose a decision making chain and its relevant economic model(s) and knowledge system. Understand the risks (climate and non climate) of the decision processes identified.T4.1.2 (All): 5% timeAssess impacts and risk management strategies throughout the DMPs over S2D timescales.
LEADING TO...
T4.1.3 (All) : 20% time - Define a methodology to evaluate the DMPs that are affected by climate.T4.1.4 (All): 40% time - Evaluate the relative weight of climate information in the relevant DMP.
LEADING TO...
T4.1.5 (UNIVLEEDS, IC3, MF, WHO Euro, and WFP): 15% timeDefine standardised protocol(s) for evaluating DMPT4.1.6 (DWD, MF, WHO Euro, and WFP): 15% timeReview the WMO Regional Climate Centre-network information and its relevance to the DMP: Information input from WP 1.1, Task 1.1.3.
Climate Forecasting Unit
Value of Climate Services – quantitative: cost/benefit analysisImpact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative.
Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative.
Redefine Climate InformationAssessment of the provided information on the decision making process
Towards New Business Opportunities (WP45) Downstream, Operational Decision Support Systems.
Climate Forecasting Unit
Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysisImpact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process.
Extract value of low skill forecasts
ECMWF's Weather Roulette
Intuitive diagnostics for communicating the skill of probabilistic forecasts..
Effective interest rate of forecast v climatology
Climate Forecasting Unit
Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysisImpact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative.
Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions.
- Risk of not acting: if high, would you act regardless of the forecast?
- Use of a probabilistic forecast/interpretation of uncertainty
- Test using a “Placebo”?
Climate Forecasting Unit
Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysisImpact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative.
Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative.
Redefine Climate InformationAssessment of the provided information on the decision making process
- Data needs and its communications (risk alongside uncertainty)- Visualisation techniques→ Standardisation? Strategy/protocol for providing information?
Climate Forecasting Unit
Value of Climate Services – quantitative: cost/benefit analysisImpact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative.
Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative.
Redefine Climate InformationAssessment of the provided information on the decision making process
Towards New Business Opportunities (WP45) Downstream, Operational Decision Support Systems.
Options?What would this look like? How would it work? (link to prototype)
Climate Forecasting Unit
Deliverables and Milestones
D4.1.1 and D4.1.2Report on the evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative value of DMP.
M4.1.1 Review of (climate and non climate) management scenarios and strategiesM4.1.2 :Assessment of the qualitative and quantitative value of the DMPs
D4.1.3Report on the impact of and risk related to climate forecasts developed in RT2 on DMPs, for case studies and DSS’s selected within Case Studies.
M4.1.3 :Assessment of the impact of and risk related to climate information on the DMPs and DSSs.
D4.1.4Review of the climate information products of the WMO RA VI RCC-network useful to the decision makers
D4.1.5Publication of paper(s) on the evaluation, skill and values of the decision making chains
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate Forecasting Unit
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Wind Resource Consultancy for Seasonal Climate VariabilityUsing probability forecast of the most likely wind power tercile (above normal, normal, below normal, %)
Fabian Lienert, Climate Forecasting Unit, IC3
Climate Forecasting Unit
..
Halcrow Water, 2013. UK Environment Agency.
Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in Flood Incident Management.
