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Climate events monitoring and satellite application … · Climate events monitoring and satellite application in China Fengjin XIAO Email: [email protected] Geneva, Switzerland

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  • Climate events monitoring and

    satellite application in China

    Fengjin XIAO

    Email: [email protected]

    Geneva, Switzerland 2017.2.15

    OPERATIONAL SPACE-BASED WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES MONITORING

    mailto:[email protected]

  • CONTENT

    1. Brief introduction of BCC

    2. Major climate events and meteorological

    disasters monitoring

    3. Application of satellite data

    4. The gap and outlook of satellite application

  • Beijing Climate Centre (BCC,2003)

    East Asian Monsoon

    Activity Centre

    (EAMAC,2006)

    Global Producing Centre for

    long-range forecast

    (GPC,2006)

    WMO Regional Climate Centre

    in RA II (RCC,2009)

    Center for Extreme Events

    Monitoring in Asia

    CEEMA,2010)

    The Role of Beijing Climate Center

    1. Brief Introduction of BCC

  • Organization National Climate Center (NCC)

    Beijing Climate Center (BCC)

    General Office (GO)

    Division of Operation,

    Science and

    Technology (DOST)

    Division of Personnel

    Affairs (DPA)

    Climate Monitoring

    Division (CMD)

    Climate System

    Modeling Division

    (CSMD)

    Climate Services

    Division (CSD)

    Laboratory for Climate

    Studies (LCS)

    Climate Prediction

    Division (CPD)

    Climate Impact

    Assessment Division

    (CIAD)

    Climate Change

    Adaptation Division

    (CCAD)

    Operational System

    Management Division

    (OSMD)

    There are Full Time Employee 193 people

  • To monitor and diagnose global atmospheric and

    oceanic conditions, as well as significant climate

    events

    To issue climate predictions and impact

    assessments at monthly, seasonal and inter-annual

    time scales

    To provide climate services to different users

    To do research on climate and climate change issues

    The task of BCC

  • 2 Climate events monitoring and assessment

    There are many meteorological disasters and extremes in

    China, include drought, rainstorm, typhoon , hailstorm, gale,

    sand-dust storm, thunderstorm, snow, heat wave, cold wave,

    landslide ,etc.

    In China, 70% of its land

    area, 50% of its population

    and 80% of its economic

    sectors are affected by

    meteorological disasters

    and climate extremes

    every year.

    drought

  • The economic losses caused by meteorological disaster

    from 1990 to 2015 in China

    since 1990s, under the background of warming in global, the

    frequency of extremes and meteorological disasters occurrences are

    obviously increasing, and the economic losses are increasing too.

    The economic losses add up to 250 billion every year.

    Economic losses

  • Deaths

    Extremes and meteorological disasters make serious

    deaths, While the death is a decreasing trend in

    recent years, about 600 million people are impacted

    by meteorological disasters, the death is about 2300

    people every year in China.

    The deaths caused by meteorological disaster

    from 1990 to 2014 in China

  • Drought monitoring

    Drought is the most serious extreme to Chinese agriculture, yearly average drought area are about 22 million hm2, which are about 60% of the whole impacted area by meteorological disaster;

    Drought is a serious meteorological disaster due to lack of water and high temperature.

    Drought has devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water resources and the environment.

    Drought can occur in every season of China, and the most serious is winter-spring drought.

  • In 2010,a catastrophic drought occurred in

    Southwestern China of Yunnan, Guizhou,

    Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing, it caused

    773million ha arable land crop failures, 24.3

    million people, 15.84 million animals lack

    drinking water, direct economic loss exceed 35

    billion yuan. It was 100-year record drought.

  • Severe drought occurred in Yunnan

    Province, Southern of China in 2010

  • During 1950~2014yearly average drought area is 21 million hectare, and appears an increasing trend, while since

    2000, the drought area decreases.

    The change of Drought Area during 1950 2014 over China

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    dro

    ugh

    t ar

    ea(

    10

    00

    0 h

    m2 )

    year

    drought area average area Trend

  • The land area affected by drought is increasing evidently in recent years, and the drought in northern China became aggravated.

    Frequency of Drought

    There are 4 drought sub-regions in China:

    Northeastern China, Northern China, Southwestern China,

    Southern China.

  • As the precipitation over 50mm is a rainstorm day.

    The rainstorms cause flood. And flood is the most serious meteorological

    disasters to Chinese economy and human life.

    flood cause more than 150 billion Yuan every year in China. As for one

    flood, water shed flood is most serious, especially in downstream and

    seaport, which not only threatened by upstream flood but also by

    storm surge and bore.

    In July 21, 2012, Heavy rain hit Beijing. The affected population reached

    1.9 million, of whom 79 were killed, economic losses was nearly 50

    billion yuan. The natural disaster brought great loss of life and property

    for capital people.

    Rainstorm monitoring

  • In the past 50 years, the

    annual average rain days

    in China decreased by 13

    percent, while the

    rainstorm days increased

    by 10 percent.

    The change of rainstorm days over China

    The change of rain days over China

    Change of rain days in China

    Rain

    sto

    rm d

    ays

    Rainstorm stations &days

    trend

    Rain

    da

    ys

    Rainstorm stations &days

    trend

  • Trend of rainstorm days variation

    The frequency of Flood is about 50% in Southeast China, and the annual heavy rain days are increasing in central and southern regions while descending in northern China.

    +

    Frequency of Flood

    Floods induced by rainstorm

    increase

    decrease

    Flood mainly occurs in

    south and east china.

  • 62 percent of the cities of China experienced serious flood. Heavy rain must waterlogging, which has become a common disease in urban China

    Beijing 2012.7.21 79 deaths

    2013.7.19 XIAMEN University Become ocean university

    2013.10.8

    2013.10.8 70%

    urban waterlogging disaster increase

  • From 1990 to 2014, yearly averaged flooded area are 9.41 million hectare, the

    flooded area appears increasing trend.

    The change of flood Area during 1950 2014 over China

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    2000

    2500

    30001

    95

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    flo

    od

    are

    a(1

    00

    00

    hm

    2)

    year

    flood area average area Trend

  • Rainstorm and Floods in Wuzhou, Guangxi Province

    A water City of Wuzhouleft up Fighters protecting sand

    martin left low people got-together blankly

    right up

  • Map of Rainstorms Days over China

    There is obvious regional

    difference of flood disaster.

    There is less flood disaster in the

    west, whereas more in the east.

    There are serious disasters and

    Risk in the areas of Liaohe plain,

    Jianghan plain, Poyang lake

    plain, Dongting lake plain,

    Yangtze river delta and Sichuan

    basin are serious.

  • Typhoon monitoring

    China is one of several countries suffering from serious typhoon disaster in the world.

    Of all these types of disasters, the typhoon is one of the most serious and has caused enormous losses of life and economic damage. With ongoing global warming predicted for the coming years, the duration and intensity of typhoon increase, and their influence become more serious.

    In China, almost half of natural disasters losses resulted from TCs. For example, in 2006,TCs accounted for 30% of the total economic losses and 43% of the deaths.

  • Since 2000, an average of 8 typhoons landed on China each

    year, with an average annual economic losses of 53 billion yuan.

    The intensity of typhoons affecting China significantly increased,

    half of which is typhoon and server typhoon.

    typhoon intensity increase

    the numbers of typhoon and server typhoon landed on China

    times

    times

    average

  • The main typhoon traces

    There are three main

    traces:

    Towards Northwest:

    land on taiwan,

    Fujian, zhejiang

    towards west: land on

    guangdong, guangxi,

    hainan

    Towards northeast,

    almost have no effect.

    The main typhoon traces

  • China is one of several countries suffering from serious typhoon disaster in

    the world. Averagely, the crop suffering from typhoon of every year is up to

    2600 thousand ha, the death number is more than 450, the collapse houses

    are 300 thousand, the directly economic losses reach 24 billion yuan.

    The economic losses and deaths from typhoon in China from 1990 to 2004

    0

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    1000

    1500

    2000

    0

    200

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    1400

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    death

    P

    Eco

    nomi

    c loss

    100 Million YUAN

    YEAR

    Economic losses Deaths

  • Typhoon MATSA Effected east of China in Aug. 2005

  • Heat wave Heat wave affects people health, agriculture drought, and

    energy short.

    The heat wave events in China have increased significantly,

    the number of heat wave days above 35 increased by 0.5 days per decade. Since 2000, the heat wave days have

    averaged 9.5 days per year, increasing 2.5 days.

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    hea

    t w

    ave

    day

    s(d

    )

    year

    heat wave days average heat wave days trend

    Annual heat wave days over China during 1961-2014

  • Distribution of heat wave days

    There are two

    heat wave area

    centers:

    northwestern

    China, and

    southeastern

    China.

  • Swimming pool

    Swimming pool

    School close

  • The changes of heat wave extremes over China

    Significantly increasing in trend, average increase of

    4 / 10 years

  • Cold wave

    Cold wave occurs in most regions of China. It induces freezing ice, and affect agriculture, forestry, power. for example, A severe snow and freezing-rain event lasted for almost one month from January 10 to February 2, 2008 in southern China, caused direct economic loss was 152 billion yuan, and transferring resettlement excessed million.

  • The forest days appear decreasing trends under the

    climate warming in China.

    Annual frost days over China during 1961-2014

    100

    105

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    fro

    st d

    ays(

    d)

    year

    frost days average trend

  • The distribution of cold wave frequency

    The cold wave occurs in

    northern China. In the

    Northeast, North,

    Northwest, South China,

    the annual average cold

    wave is more than 3 times,

    there are 6 times in

    Xinjiang, inner Mongolia,

    Jilin and Liaoning.

    The distribution of cold wave

  • The disasters caused by low temperature and frost in

    HUNAN, south CHINA in 2006

  • The changes of cold wave extremes over China

    Significantly decreasing in trend, average increase of 10 / 10 years

  • Extreme weather and climate events

  • Major weather and climate events in China July 2014

  • 3 APPLICATION OF SATELLITE

    DATA

    climate factors monitor

    daily,monthly,seasonal, and annual monitoring for sea surface temperature, tropical convective activitysnow cover, sea ice, vegetation

    Climate model

    Ocean data assimilation

    Land Data Assimilation

    BCC barely monitors weather and climate extremes with

    satellites. The application of satellite data include two

    sections, climate factors monitor and climate model.

  • 1sea surface temperature monitor month and season

    ENSO index monitoring

    Data: from noaa

    olsstv2 data

    OISSTV2ENSO

    SST monitoring

    Sub-surface sea

    temperature monitoring

  • 2tropical convective activity monitoring

    data sources: FY satellite OLR data

    Pentadly OLR

    Monthly OLR

    OLR

  • 3SNOW COVER MONITORING

    Snow cover area index Snow cover days spatial distribution

    Data Sources: NOAA Satellite data

  • Distribution of pentad snow cover days Distribution of dekad snow cover days

    http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/download/Monitoring/Snow/ims/dekad/2014/IMS24_Dekad_stn_NorthernHemisphere_201401.gifhttp://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/download/Monitoring/Snow/ims/tms/IMS24_monthly_area_NorthernHemisphere_Jan.gif

  • 4sea ice monitoring

    Distribution Sea Ice Concentration in Northern Hemisphere

    Data Sources:NOAA-OISST

    Distribution Sea Ice Concentration in Southern Hemisphere

  • Sea Ice Area and Anomaly in Northern Hemisphere

    The changes of Sea Ice Area in Arctic(left) and Chinese Adjacent

    Sea(right)

  • 5 vegetation monitoring

    Sources data: FY data

    NDVI, induced from FY-3C satellite data, to monitoring the vegetation growing

  • 2012

    2013

    The FY satellite SST Data obviously improved in 2013.

    2013FY3A

    FY3A SST Error analysis Deviation distribution

    (6) Climate model application

  • Before

    assimila

    tion

    assimil

    ation

    observa

    tion

    Average deviation

    Assimilation-observation -

    Before Assimilation-Observation

    -

    land surface temperature assimilation test

  • 4 The gap and outlook of satellite application

    BCC has great demands for Satellite remote sensing in

    climate monitoring, impact assessment, climate change and

    climate model, and climate servicers.

    The satellite data applications are seriously lagging its

    demands in BCC.

    The reasons is lack of professional personnel and related

    technologies and skills.

    BCC will establish a professional technical innovation team,

    and Increase technology exchange and cooperatione.g.

    NSMC) to improve the capability of satellite application.

  • Thank you