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Climate events monitoring and
satellite application in China
Fengjin XIAO
Email: [email protected]
Geneva, Switzerland 2017.2.15
OPERATIONAL SPACE-BASED WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES MONITORING
CONTENT
1. Brief introduction of BCC
2. Major climate events and meteorological
disasters monitoring
3. Application of satellite data
4. The gap and outlook of satellite application
Beijing Climate Centre (BCC,2003)
East Asian Monsoon
Activity Centre
(EAMAC,2006)
Global Producing Centre for
long-range forecast
(GPC,2006)
WMO Regional Climate Centre
in RA II (RCC,2009)
Center for Extreme Events
Monitoring in Asia
(CEEMA,2010)
The Role of Beijing Climate Center
1. Brief Introduction of BCC
Organization National Climate Center (NCC)
Beijing Climate Center (BCC)
General Office (GO)
Division of Operation,
Science and
Technology (DOST)
Division of Personnel
Affairs (DPA)
Climate Monitoring
Division (CMD)
Climate System
Modeling Division
(CSMD)
Climate Services
Division (CSD)
Laboratory for Climate
Studies (LCS)
Climate Prediction
Division (CPD)
Climate Impact
Assessment Division
(CIAD)
Climate Change
Adaptation Division
(CCAD)
Operational System
Management Division
(OSMD)
There are Full Time Employee 193 people
To monitor and diagnose global atmospheric and
oceanic conditions, as well as significant climate
events
To issue climate predictions and impact
assessments at monthly, seasonal and inter-annual
time scales
To provide climate services to different users
To do research on climate and climate change issues
The task of BCC
2 Climate events monitoring and assessment
There are many meteorological disasters and extremes in
China, include drought, rainstorm, typhoon , hailstorm, gale,
sand-dust storm, thunderstorm, snow, heat wave, cold wave,
landslide ,etc.
In China, 70% of its land
area, 50% of its population
and 80% of its economic
sectors are affected by
meteorological disasters
and climate extremes
every year.
drought
The economic losses caused by meteorological disaster
from 1990 to 2015 in China
since 1990s, under the background of warming in global, the
frequency of extremes and meteorological disasters occurrences are
obviously increasing, and the economic losses are increasing too.
The economic losses add up to 250 billion every year.
Economic losses
Deaths
Extremes and meteorological disasters make serious
deaths, While the death is a decreasing trend in
recent years, about 600 million people are impacted
by meteorological disasters, the death is about 2300
people every year in China.
The deaths caused by meteorological disaster
from 1990 to 2014 in China
Drought monitoring
Drought is the most serious extreme to Chinese agriculture, yearly average drought area are about 22 million hm2, which are about 60% of the whole impacted area by meteorological disaster;
Drought is a serious meteorological disaster due to lack of water and high temperature.
Drought has devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water resources and the environment.
Drought can occur in every season of China, and the most serious is winter-spring drought.
In 2010,a catastrophic drought occurred in
Southwestern China of Yunnan, Guizhou,
Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing, it caused
773million ha arable land crop failures, 24.3
million people, 15.84 million animals lack
drinking water, direct economic loss exceed 35
billion yuan. It was 100-year record drought.
Severe drought occurred in Yunnan
Province, Southern of China in 2010
During 1950~2014,yearly average drought area is 21
million hectare, and appears an increasing trend, while since
2000, the drought area decreases.
The change of Drought Area during 1950 – 2014 over China
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dro
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0 h
m2 )
year
drought area average area Trend
• The land area affected by drought is increasing evidently in recent years, and the drought in northern China became aggravated.
Frequency of Drought
There are 4 drought sub-regions in China:
Northeastern China, Northern China, Southwestern China,
Southern China.
As the precipitation over 50mm is a rainstorm day.
The rainstorms cause flood. And flood is the most serious meteorological
disasters to Chinese economy and human life.
flood cause more than 150 billion Yuan every year in China. As for one
flood, water shed flood is most serious, especially in downstream and
seaport, which not only threatened by upstream flood but also by
storm surge and bore.
In July 21, 2012, Heavy rain hit Beijing. The affected population reached
1.9 million, of whom 79 were killed, economic losses was nearly 50
billion yuan. The natural disaster brought great loss of life and property
for capital people.
Rainstorm monitoring
In the past 50 years, the
annual average rain days
in China decreased by 13
percent, while the
rainstorm days increased
by 10 percent.
The change of rainstorm days over China
The change of rain days over China
Change of rain days in China
Rain
sto
rm d
ays
Rainstorm stations &days
trend
Rain
da
ys
Rainstorm stations &days
trend
Trend of rainstorm days variation
The frequency of Flood is about 50% in Southeast China, and the annual heavy rain days are increasing in central and southern regions while descending in northern China.
—
+
Frequency of Flood
Floods induced by rainstorm
increase
decrease
Flood mainly occurs in
south and east china.
62 percent of the cities of China experienced serious flood. Heavy rain must waterlogging, which has become a common disease in urban China。
Beijing 2012.7.21 79 deaths
2013.7.19 XIAMEN University Become “ocean university”
2013.10.8菲特强台风 同济“知识海洋”
2013.10.8菲特强台风 余姚70%城区被淹
urban waterlogging disaster increase
From 1990 to 2014, yearly averaged flooded area are 9.41 million hectare, the
flooded area appears increasing trend.
The change of flood Area during 1950 – 2014 over China
0
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1500
2000
2500
30001
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flo
od
are
a(1
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hm
2)
year
flood area average area Trend
Rainstorm and Floods in Wuzhou, Guangxi Province
A water City of Wuzhou(left
up)
Fighters protecting sand
martin (left low)
people got-together blankly
(right up)
Map of Rainstorms Days over China
There is obvious regional
difference of flood disaster.
There is less flood disaster in the
west, whereas more in the east.
There are serious disasters and
Risk in the areas of Liaohe plain,
Jiang’han plain, Po’yang lake
plain, Dong’ting lake plain,
Yangtze river delta and Si’chuan
basin are serious.
Typhoon monitoring
China is one of several countries suffering from serious typhoon disaster in the world.
Of all these types of disasters, the typhoon is one of the most serious and has caused enormous losses of life and economic damage. With ongoing global warming predicted for the coming years, the duration and intensity of typhoon increase, and their influence become more serious.
In China, almost half of natural disasters losses resulted from TCs. For example, in 2006,TCs accounted for 30% of the total economic losses and 43% of the deaths.
Since 2000, an average of 8 typhoons landed on China each
year, with an average annual economic losses of 53 billion yuan.
The intensity of typhoons affecting China significantly increased,
half of which is typhoon and server typhoon.
typhoon intensity increase
the numbers of typhoon and server typhoon landed on China
times
times
average
The main typhoon traces
There are three main
traces:
Towards Northwest:
land on taiwan,
Fujian, zhejiang
towards west: land on
guangdong, guangxi,
hainan
Towards northeast,
almost have no effect.
The main typhoon traces
China is one of several countries suffering from serious typhoon disaster in
the world. Averagely, the crop suffering from typhoon of every year is up to
2600 thousand ha, the death number is more than 450, the collapse houses
are 300 thousand, the directly economic losses reach 24 billion yuan.
The economic losses and deaths from typhoon in China from 1990 to 2004
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
death(
P)
Eco
nomi
c loss(
100 Million YUAN)
YEAR
经济损失 死亡人数 Economic losses Deaths
Typhoon “MATSA” Effected east of China in Aug. 2005
Heat wave Heat wave affects people health, agriculture drought, and
energy short.
The heat wave events in China have increased significantly,
the number of heat wave days above 35 ℃ increased by 0.5
days per decade. Since 2000, the heat wave days have
averaged 9.5 days per year, increasing 2.5 days.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
hea
t w
ave
day
s(d
)
year
heat wave days average heat wave days trend
Annual heat wave days over China during 1961-2014
Distribution of heat wave days
There are two
heat wave area
centers:
northwestern
China, and
southeastern
China.
Swimming pool
Swimming pool
School close
The changes of heat wave extremes over China
Significantly increasing in trend, average increase of
4 / 10 years
Cold wave
Cold wave occurs in most regions of China. It induces freezing ice, and affect agriculture, forestry, power. for example, A severe snow and freezing-rain event lasted for almost one month from January 10 to February 2, 2008 in southern China, caused direct economic loss was 152 billion yuan, and transferring resettlement excessed million.
The forest days appear decreasing trends under the
climate warming in China.
Annual frost days over China during 1961-2014
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st d
ays(
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frost days average trend
The distribution of cold wave frequency
The cold wave occurs in
northern China. In the
Northeast, North,
Northwest, South China,
the annual average cold
wave is more than 3 times,
there are 6 times in
Xinjiang, inner Mongolia,
Jilin and Liaoning.
The distribution of cold wave
The disasters caused by low temperature and frost in
HUNAN, south CHINA in 2006
The changes of cold wave extremes over China
Significantly decreasing in trend, average increase of 10 / 10 years
Extreme weather and climate events
Major weather and climate events in China July 2014
3 APPLICATION OF SATELLITE
DATA
climate factors monitor
daily,monthly,seasonal, and annual monitoring for sea surface temperature, tropical convective activity;snow cover, sea ice, vegetation
Climate model
Ocean data assimilation
Land Data Assimilation
BCC barely monitors weather and climate extremes with
satellites. The application of satellite data include two
sections, climate factors monitor and climate model.
(1)sea surface temperature monitor
(month and season) ENSO index monitoring
印度洋监测 大西洋监测
Data: from noaa
olsstv2 data 采用
美国国家海洋和大气管理局OISSTV2同化资料对海表温度、次表层温度和ENSO事件等开展了监测
SST monitoring
Sub-surface sea
temperature monitoring
(2)tropical convective activity monitoring
(data sources: FY satellite OLR data)
国家气候中心监测(日、候和月尺度监测)
Pentadly OLR
Monthly OLR
OLR实况和距平监测 实况 距平
实况 距平
(3)SNOW COVER MONITORING
Snow cover area index Snow cover days spatial distribution
Data Sources: NOAA Satellite data
Distribution of pentad snow cover days Distribution of dekad snow cover days
(4)sea ice monitoring
Distribution Sea Ice Concentration in Northern Hemisphere
(Data Sources:NOAA-OISST)
Distribution Sea Ice Concentration in Southern Hemisphere
Sea Ice Area and Anomaly in Northern Hemisphere
The changes of Sea Ice Area in Arctic(left) and Chinese Adjacent
Sea(right)
(5) vegetation monitoring
Sources data: FY data
NDVI, induced from FY-3C satellite data, to monitoring the vegetation growing
2012年
2013年
The FY satellite SST Data obviously improved in 2013.
2013年FY3A卫星海温资料有明显改善
FY3A SST Error analysis: Deviation distribution
风云卫星海表温度误差分析:偏差分布
(6) Climate model application
Before
assimila
tion 同化前
assimil
ation
同化
observa
tion观测
Average deviation
平均偏差
Assimilation-observation 同化-观测
Before Assimilation-Observation
同化前-观测
land surface temperature assimilation test 地表温度同化试验
4 The gap and outlook of satellite application
BCC has great demands for Satellite remote sensing in
climate monitoring, impact assessment, climate change and
climate model, and climate servicers.
The satellite data applications are seriously lagging its
demands in BCC.
The reasons is lack of professional personnel and related
technologies and skills.
BCC will establish a professional technical innovation team,
and Increase technology exchange and cooperation(e.g.
NSMC) to improve the capability of satellite application.
Thank you!