Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather

American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): 65-76 Published online October 22, 2015 (http://www.openscienceonline.com/journal/ajees)

Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences

M. A. Awal

Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Email address

[email protected] (M. A. Awal)

To cite this article M. A. Awal. Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences. American Journal of

Environmental Engineering and Science. Vol. 2, No. 6, 2015, pp. 65-76.

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the worst victims of climate change as its geo-morphological settings invite some devastating weather

shocks. Regular river floods affect 20 percent of the country, increasing up to 68 percent in extreme years. The Sylhet Division

is more sensitive to flood followed by the Rangpur or Rajshahi division whereas Barisal and Khulna regions showed as less

sensitive to flood. The tropical cyclones stroke Bangladesh coast over the centuries have been increased and a recent analysis

of cyclone struck from the past 50 years shown that the event was so frequent that on an average only 1.2-year was enough for

a cyclonic hit. The Barisal Division is most sensitive to cyclonic storm followed by Chittagong and Khulna divisions. Severe

local storms of meso-scale phenomena such as tornado or Nor’wester locally called ‘Kalboishakhi’ have also occurred with

hails, lightning and thunders in Bangladesh that cause great damages in local scale. All of those extreme weathers seriously

destroy properties and agricultural activities thus life and livelihood are seriously affected. Evading policy can be adopted for

saving life, agricultural enterprises and other properties from extreme weathers.

Keywords

Climate Shocks, Depression, Extreme Weather, Flood, Kalboishakhi, Nor’wester, Tornado, Tropical Cyclone

1. Introduction

Today it is so common that climate change is occurring

throughout the world due to global warming and the case is

not an exception for Bangladesh too. Consequently the

frequency of some extreme weathers such as flood, tropical

cyclone, tornado or Nor’wester etc is predicted to be

increased. It is reported that about 9.5 million people where

more than 3.0 and 1.7 million respectively live with normal

and extreme poverty are exposed to some common weather

events in a year throughout Bangladesh (Awal, 2015). The

figure would account as 3 to 5 times as many if any extreme

weather hits the country. For example, more than 30 million

people were affected throughout the country due to the each

flood event occurred in 1988, 1998 and 2004 years (Rahman

et al., 2009). Therefore, the issue is paramount important for

Bangladesh.

Bangladesh delta is located in between the Himalayas and

the Bay of Bengal. Three major rivers‒ Padma, Meghna and

Brahmaputra/Jamuna, and their tributaries or distributaries

drain the most upstream water flow into the Bay. The country

is a worst victim of all three major processes of climate

change: melting of the glaciers in the Himalaya, sea level rise

in the Indian Ocean, and tropical cyclones and associated

storms formed in the Bay of Bengal. Eighty percent of the

land is floodplains and topographically two-third of the

country is less than 5 meters above sea level. This leaves a

major part of the country prone to flooding. Bangladesh has

experienced severe floods every 4 to 5 years that may cover

more than 60 percent of the country, resulting in significant

losses of properties (Reliefweb, 2009). Nevertheless, the

floodplains with increasing rainfall are identified as regions

more exposed to flood especially in monsoon season in

Bangladesh.

To form, cyclones need sea surface temperatures of 26.5oC

or greater, abundant moisture and light wind in the upper

atmosphere (Neely, 2013). Global warming increases the

temperature of ocean that would increase the frequency of

formation of tropical cyclones. The Bay of Bengal is the best

breeding ground forming tropical cyclone (Ali, 1996). It is

observed that most cyclones that formed in the Bay hit

Bangladesh coast regularly. It is mentioned from IPCC’s

Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) that annual mean

rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh, and

66 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences

frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in

Bay of Bengal has increased. Therefore, flood and tropical

cyclone‒two major events of extreme climate hit Bangladesh

and often damage infrastructures and rural agricultural

production thus significantly affect the life and livelihood of

the people. Some local scale extreme weathers like tornado

or Nor’wester locally called ‘Kalboishakhi’ suddenly hit

during pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh with thunder,

lightning, and hail that cause heavy damages. Therefore, the

aim of this study was to analyze the nature, kind and extent

of some common extreme weather events that hit Bangladesh

with different degrees of devastation.

2. Methodology

The study is based on the analysis of secondary data. The

historical data especially on tropical cyclones, tornadoes etc

were collected from the Climate Division, Bangladesh

Meteorological Department (BMD), Ministry of Defense,

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. The

frequency of cyclone and flood, two most devastating

weather events or climate change shocks of Bangladesh was

computed using their past hits from Sixties of last century

and the data were collected by consulting newspaper

archives, annual flood reports, hazard maps, web browsing

and records preserved in the BMD. The daily newspapers

from Sixties preserved at the Central Library of Bangladesh

Agricultural University, Mymensingh were consulted for

finding the areas affected by the climate change shocks like

flood, cyclone etc. Flood and cyclone frequencies were

calculated using the past hits over the districts or divisions.

After national, Division indicates the largest administrative

unit of government of Bangladesh. There are only seven

divisions like Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi,

Rangpur and Sylhet in Bangladesh that constituted from 64

districts where district is another administrative unit of

Bangladesh next to division. The data of flood and cyclone

frequencies were presented with GIS mapping using GIS

software like ArcView GIS 3.3/ArcGIS 9.2. Satellite images

of cyclone formation just prior to land fall were collected

through web browsing. Historically some devastating

cyclone eyes like BHOLA cyclone, and cyclones GORKY,

SIDR, AILA, MAHASEN and KOMEN were collected.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Flood

i) Overview of flood issue in Bangladesh

Flood is a most common climate risk in Bangladesh which

sometime causes serious damage. Most floods generally

occur during July to September in the areas of the Padma, the

Meghna and the Jamuna basins due to overflowing of river

force from upstream areas and monsoon rain (Map 1).

However flash flood, caused by overflowing of hilly rivers

may occur at any time from April to November in eastern

and northern part of the country. Regular river flood affects

20 percent area of the country, increased up to 68 percent

areas in extreme year (Fig. 1). Every year approximately 1.5

million hectares (ha) of land goes under the flood water in

Bangladesh (CCC, 2011a). About 4000 km2 area in the north-

eastern part and 1400 km2 area in the south-eastern part of

the country are prone to flash flood (CCC, 2011b).

Map 1. General flood affected map of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia.

URL:

http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=File:NaturalHazardFloodAffected

Area.jpg; accessed on July 31, 2015. Reprinted with permission.

Fig. 1. Year-wise flooded area of Bangladesh from 1954 to 2010.

Approximately 18 percent areas of Bangladesh are occupied by river, lake or

other water bodies and therefore these areas are not included in the given

flood area. Data source: http://www.ffwc.gov.bd; accessed on April 11, 2012.

Every year flood causes serious river bank erosion (Map

2). From a survey, Bangladesh Water Development Board

(BWDB) estimated that about 1,200 km river bank is eroded

and another 500 km is under threat to collapse (CCC, 2011b).

From 1982 to 1992 about 106,300 ha river banks have been

eroded due to flooding whereas only 19,300 ha land is

accreted (CDMP, 2008).

American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): 65-76 67

URL: http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=File:NaturalHazardRiverErosionProneArea.jpg; accessed on July 31, 2015. Reprinted with permission.

Map 2. River bank erosion prone areas of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia.

ii) Flood frequency

Flood frequency was calculated as the total number of

flood hit divided by the total number of year passed, and the

data are shown in Map 3. The flood hit frequency was found

much higher in the Sylhet, Kurigram, Sirajganj, Rangpur,

Gaibandha, Pabna, Faridpur and Chittagong districts. The

Sylhet Division is more sensitive to flood hit followed by the

Rangpur or Rajshahi division whereas Barisal and Khulna

showed as less sensitive divisions to flood.

Map 3. Flood frequency maps at district (left) and division (right) levels since 1966. The number of flood hit at district level is weighted and brought to the

respective divisions.


iii) Severity of flood hit in Bangladesh

The flood events of 1955, 1974, 1988, 1998 and 2004 are

evident as most catastrophic when about 33, 36, 61, 68 and

38 percent areas of the country were inundated (Fig. 1;

http://www.thebangladesh.net/en/flood-maps-m.html; site

accessed on July 23, 2015) which resulted large scale

destruction of infrastructure and economy, and loss of lives.

The 2004, 2007 and 2008 floods are considered as

devastating floods occurred recently. Although the area

covered of 2004 flood was less than that at 1988 or 1998, but

long time exposure/prevalence, caused serious damage of the

country in 2004. Again cumulative damages due to recurring

floods occurred in 2002 and 2003 are also responsible for

great damages in 2004-flood (CCC, 2011b).

3.2. Tropical Cyclone

i) Overview of tropical cyclone in Bangladesh

The Bay of Bengal is considered as an important breeding

place of the world forming tropical cyclone (Map 4). The

Bangladesh coast is located in between the Indian coast and

Myanmar’s Peninsula that formed on top of a cone/funnel

shaped sea-land structure which invites most of the tropical

storms. Map 5 shows the track and intensity of some

devastating storms that struck Bangladesh coast. Entire

coastal region including exposed coast (adjacent to the Bay)

and interior coast are experienced to cyclonic hit (Map 6).

However, exposed coast is more vulnerable as most cyclone

landfalls to that area. Cyclonic hit create tidal flood or storm

surge about 15-20 ft height in the locality.

Map 4. Composite of cyclone tracks crossing the North Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal from 1970 to 2005. Source: Wikimedia Commons. URL:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:North_Indian_cyclone_tracks.jpg; accessed on July 31, 2015.

(a) BHOLA Cyclone, struck on Nov 12, 1970 (b) Cyclone GORKI, struck on April 29, 1991


(c) Cyclone SIDR, struck on November 15, 2007 (d) Cyclone AILA, struck on May 25, 2009

(e) Cyclone MAHASEN (Viyaru), struck on May 13, 2013 (f) Cyclone KOMEN, struck on July 31, 2015

Map 5. Map plotting the track and intensity of some devastating storms. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

URL: http://en.banglapedia.org/index.php?title=File:NaturalHazardCycloneAffectedArea.jpg; accessed on July 31, 2015. Reprinted with permission.

Map 6. General cyclone map of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia.


ii) Frequency of cyclone hit

Map 7 shows some important cyclones that tracking over

Bangladesh during the twentieth Century. The cyclones that

landfalled on the Bangladesh coast since 1795 have shown in

Fig. 2. It is evident that the cyclonic hit is being

exponentially increaed over the centuries. Cyclone in the Bay

of Bengal is to be formed more frequently due to increasing

temperature, and there is evidence that the peak intensity of

cyclone may increase by 5 to 10 percent (IPCC, 2001). The

IPCC (2007) also predicted in the 4th Assessment Report that

frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclone formation in

the Bay of Bengal has increased. The frequency of global

cyclonic hit has also increased (Haque et al., 2011). A closer

view of data of cyclone struck over the last half a century has

been analyzed and found that the landfall was so frequent

that only 1.2 year is required for a cyclonic hit (Fig. 3).

However, the intensity of cyclonic hit is declining except

during 1990–2000. The cyclone frequencies in district and

division levels are shown in Map 8. The Barisal Division is

most sensitive to cyclonic storm followed by Chittagong and

Khulna divisions. The Dhaka and Sylhet divisions are less

sensitive to cyclone whereas the Rajshahi and Rangur

divisions are free from tropical sea cyclone.

Map 7. Cyclones track over Bangladesh delta during the twentieth Century. Source: Banglapedia. Reprinted with permission.


Fig. 2. Number of occurrences of major cyclones struck since 1795 in Bangladesh. The number of cyclone hit for each 50-year period is shown above the

cyclinder bar. Source: Daily Star (a leading daily newspaper of Bangladesh) on June 1, 2009; URL: http://archive.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-

details.php?nid=90678.

Fig. 3. Number of cyclonic hit in Bangladesh coast over last 50 years from 1961, and average time required for a cyclone. Source: BMD.

Map 8. Cyclone frequency maps at district (left) and division level (right). The number of cyclonic hit at district level is weighted and

brought to the respective divisions.


iii) Temporal distribution of cyclone hit in Bangladesh

The temporal distribution of all cyclones struck over

1961–2010 and 1991–2010 periods clearly shows that

tropical cyclone mostly hits within the two time boundaries:

pre-monsoon and post monsoon times (Fig. 4a–b). The

cyclone frequency was also found largely higher during post

monsoon period than the frequency found at pre-monsoon

time. The most cyclones at pre-monsoon period occurred

throughout May especially from middle to end of the month.

But the duration of post monsoon cyclonic hit was extended

quite a larger time period from mid October to mid

November. Peak cyclone frequency was recorded during 1–

15 November that corresponded well with the peak casualty

of human lives about 70% (Fig. 4c). However, the temporal

death toll at pre-monsoon period occurred quite earlier (16–

30 April) as compared to the peak frequency of hit. It is

noted that the starting time of pre-monsoon and post

monsoon cyclone events largely corresponding to the

harvesting time of Boro rice and Aman rice crops,

respectively. It would provide a best policy option for

advancing these two crop’s maturity time through early

planting or adoption of short duration rice varieties (Khan

and Awal, 2009). Thus, safe harvest of these two major crops

prior to commence the cyclone hit would be ensured.

Fig. 4. Temporal distribution of cyclonic hit (a, b) and death toll of human life (c) from cyclone attack in Bangladesh.

iv) Formation, severity and damage occurred from

cyclonic storm

Storms originate over warm tropical oceans that are

characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and

heavy rain. Structurally, tropical cyclones are typically

between 100 and 4,000 km in diameter. A developing

cyclone attracts water vapour not only from warm oceanic

atmosphere but also from surrounding terrestrial atmosphere

as it circulates over a wider area. Thus dry and transparent

atmosphere over the adjacent land is generally noticed during

the time of a cyclone formation. Drawing energy from the sea

surface and maintaining its strength as long as it remains over

warm water, a tropical cyclone generates winds that exceed

from 119 to 240 km per hour. Highest wind sustains

maximum 1–3 minutes (Table 1). As the storm system rotates

faster and faster, an eye forms in the centre (Image 1). The

eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically 30–65 km

in diameter. The eye is a region of mostly calm weather. But

the eye is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering

thunderstorms where the most severe weather occurs. The


lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as

much as 15% lower than the pressure outside the storm

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_(cyclone); site accessed

on August 27, 2015). In case of strong storms, the eye is

characterized by light winds and clear skies, surrounded on

all sides by a towering, symmetric eyewall (Image 1a–d). In

weaker cyclones, the eye is less well defined and can be

covered by the central dense overcast, an area of high, thick

clouds that show up brightly on satellite imagery (Image 1e–

f). Weaker or disorganized storms may also feature an

eyewall that does not completely encircle the eye or have an

eye that features heavy rain. As rotating, storm acquires

greater momentum before its landfall. Shallow water that

coincides at the coast is the ideal place for landfall of a

cyclone.

(a) BHOLA Cyclone, ITOS 1 (b) Cyclone GORKY, NOAA (c) Cyclone SIDR, NASA

(d) Cyclone AILA, NASA (e) Cyclone MAHASEN, NASA (f) Cyclone KOMEN, NASA

Image 1. Satellite images of some storms near peak intensity before their landfall. Anti-clock momentum is common that is happened for the Northern

Hemisphere. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Fig. 5 shows the maximum wind speed and surge height

due to cyclone occurred from 1960 to 2010 in Bangladesh.

Historically the cyclones struck in 1970 and 1991 caused

great fatalities. It was noticed that about 10 m height tidal

surge lashed the region during 1970 cyclone (historically

known as Bhola Cyclone).

Cyclone SIDR, a Category IV storm, struck the

southwestern coast that covered wider area than ever before

on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people. Despite a

similar magnitude, SIDR claimed far fewer lives than Bhola

Cyclone and GORKY, also Category IV storm, which struck

the Bhola and Chittagong coast of Bangladesh on November

12, 1970 and April 29, 1991 causing an estimated 5,00,000

and 1,50,000 fatalities, respectively (Table 1). The relatively

low number of deaths experienced with SIDR is widely

considered the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to

provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and

successful evacuation of low–lying coastal residents from the

projected path of Cyclone SIDR. That is government has

adopted improved Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy

at institutional and operational level that reduced the vast

casualty (Paul, 2009). Although less death of human (191 in

Bangladesh) is reported from cyclone AILA (on May 25,

2009) but livelihood is much affected due to heavy intrusion

of saline water inside the embankment from Bay of Bengal.

Agricultural activities and source of drinking water are

heavily disrupted due to extreme salinity and consequently

local people are still affected due to AILA.


Fig. 5. Maximum wind speed (a) with surge height (b) due to cyclone hit since 1960 in Bangladesh. Source: BMD.

In addition to human casualty or fatality, a great number of

people were also missed and affetced due to devastating

cyclonic hits. Cyclone caused great loss in the different

sectors like agriculture e.g. growing crops especially semi-

matured rice; infrastructures like building, mill/industry,

house, roads, bridge etc.; and basic services like

communication/telehone networks, electric power networks,

water supply networks, medical services etc in the coastal

districts (Awal et al., 2013). Communication system is

seriuosly collapsed through the disruption of road, bridge,

culverts, embankment etc. Tourism industries are also

affetced by cyclone and storm due to tidal surge/erosion and

scarcity of fresh water availability in the coastal zone.

Destruction of mills or industries may create sudden

unemployment situation that is a great concern to livelihood

security in the locality. As a whole the damages that occurred

due to storm are of great concern (Table 1).

Table 1. Salient features of some devastating cyclonic storms that strike Bangladesh coast.

Storm/Year Period

Highest wind

sustained (km/h)

Lowest

pressure*

mbar (hPa)

Affected areas Fatalities

Damage

occurred

(US$**) Formed Landfall Dissipated 3-minute 1-minute

BHOLA

Cyclone/1970

November

3

November

12

November

13 185 205 966

India,

Bangladesh

300,000–

500,000

86.40

million

Cyclone

GORKY/1991 April 24 April 29 April 30 240 260 918 Bangladesh

138,866–

150,000 1.70 billion

Cyclone

SIDR/2007

November

11

November

15

November

16 215 260 944

Bangladesh and

West Bengal,

India

~15,000 1.70 billion

Cyclone

AILA/2009 May 23 May 25 May 26 110 120 968

India,

Bangladesh 330

552.60

million

Cyclone

MAHASEN/20

13

May 10 May 13 May 17 85 85 990

Indonesia,

Slilanka, India,

Thailand,

Myanmar,

Bangladesh

107 At least 5.14

million

Cyclone

KOMEN/2015 July 26 July 31 August 2 75 – 986

Bangladesh,

Myanmar, East

India

493 Extensive

*Standard atmospheric pressure at sea level is 1013.25 millibars (mbar) or hectopascals (hPa) equivalent to 1 atmosphere (atm). ** US$ value of respective year. Source: Wikipedia Creative Commons.


3.3. Tornado/Nor’wester/Kalboishakhi

It happens from sudden depression on land due to the high

insolation load in the pre-monsoon season with transparent or

clear sky from March to May. That is higher sun load is

common prior to Summer Solstice that occurs on 21 June in

Northern Hemisphere. Table 2 summarized some devastating

tornadoes hit on various places of Bangladesh. It is localized

and the weather condition brings thunder, lightning, and hail

that cause heavy damages. However, the wind speed during

tornado hit is very faster than the sea cyclone. The damages

by Kalboishakhi storm are also occurred in the very small

area as compared to those occurred from tropical sea

cyclones. Strong Kalboishakhi can destroy everything on the

ground. Hail seriously damages developing fruits of mango,

litchi etc and growing or semi-matured/matured Boro rice in

Bangladesh.

Table 2. Salient features of some devastating Tornadoes/Nor’westers/Kalboishakhi occurred in Bangladesh.

Date of

occurrence

(D/M/Y)

Place of occurrence

Area of

devastation

(km2)

Duration of

storm (minute)

Maximum wind

speed (km/hr)

People

killed

Number of

injured

Loss of

property

(million BDT)

14/04/1969 Demra 155.5–168.4 5–7 644 922 16511 40–45

17/08/1973 Manikganj 20.7 8–10 322 100 1000 10

10/04/1974 Faridpur 25.9–39.9 12–15 242 46 Innumerable Several millions

11/04/1974 Bogra 25.9–31.1 10–15 242 28 75 10

09/05/1976 Narayanganj 2.59 1–2 242 1 42 Several millions

01/04/1977 Faridpur 51.8 2–3 322 500 6000 12

26/04/1989 Manikganj (Saturia) 150.2 Several minutes 388–419 526 Innumerable Several millions

20/04/1990 Sirajganj 77.7 40 193 29 2000 –

07/05/1991 Gazipur – Several minutes 298 46 400 –

18/05/1991 Gouranadi 207.2 Several minutes 251 17 400 –

08/05/1995 Lowhajang – Several minutes 250 34 Several hundreds –

13/05/1996 Tangail 16 Unions of

6 Thanas 5–8 320–400 570 30,000 –

Source: Climate Division, BMD.

4. Conclusion

Due to gradual changes of global climate the frequency of

some extreme weather events especially flood and tropical

cyclone are increasing in Bangladesh. Flood is a common

climate change shock that occurs every monsoon season in

Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is the best breeding ground

forming sea cyclones and southern coast of Bangladesh is

highly sensitive for inviting those tropical cyclones.

Neverthless any place of the country may be affected by

localized tornadoes with thunder and hail during premonson

season. Evading policy can be adopted for saving life,

agricultural enterprises and other properties from extreme

weathers as these are mostly beyond to human control.

Acknowledgments

This paper is based on a study entitled ‘Adapting social

safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and

options for Bangladesh’ financed under the Research Grants

Scheme (RGS) of the National Food Policy Capacity

Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP). The purpose of the

RGS was to assist in improving research and dialogue within

civil society so as to inform and enrich the implementation of

the National Food Policy. The NFPCSP is implemented by

the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

(FAO) and the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU),

Ministry of Food with the financial support of EU and

USAID.

The author is gratefully acknowledged Professor Ahmed

A. Jamal, Managing Editor, Banglapedia, Asiatic Society of

Bangladesh to give his kind permission for using some

invaluable maps of Banglapedia that made the article useful

one.

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Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather