Climate Change to 2030 Re-defining Terroir

Climate Change to 2030 Re-defining Terroir

Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIASTMelbourne School of Land and Environment

University of Melbourne

The globe is warming at an increasing rate

IPCC 2007

South Eastern Australia is also warming

2030

TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône

DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945

1-sept6-sept

11-sept16-sept21-sept26-sept

1-oct6-oct

11-oct

Ganichot, 2002

Vines are and will respond to this warming

Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria

y = -1.83x + 39925

R2 = 0.62

26-Feb

5-Mar

12-Mar

19-Mar

26-Mar

2-Apr

9-Apr

16-Apr

23-Apr

30-Apr

7-May

14-May

21-May

28-May

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Da

te w

he

n g

rap

es

re

ac

he

d 2

1 B

rix

A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009

10th Apr average pre1998

13th Mar average1998 and post

28 days

Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)

Future climates will change in both mean and variance of temperature and rainfall

Models and observations indicate increases in both

Mean temperatures

Temperature Variance

resulting in

More hot weather and extreme events

Less change in cold weather

frost uncertain

IPCC 2007

Future Environments for Viticulture – Southern Australia

• Temperature – + 0.7-1.2 C in 2030 and +2.3- 3.5 C in 2070 – More extreme events – heat waves

• Rainfall – - 4% by 2030 and -12-13% by 2070– Vine water use up + 7% in 2030 and +20-25% 2070– Runoff is more severely affected

• Frost – Difficult to know , but could be worse

• Carbon Dioxide – What will 450ppm do ?

1990

2030

2050

Year

January February March April May

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21Coonawarra

2050

2030

1990

Year

January February March April May13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

tem

per

atu

re

Vic/NSW Murray Valley

2.5 °C

4.2 °C

Climate driven changes in phenology exacerbate post verasion temperature increases

Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008

Vines are and will respond to this warming But is it temperature alone ?

Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria

y = -1.83x + 39925

R2 = 0.62

26-Feb

5-Mar

12-Mar

19-Mar

26-Mar

2-Apr

9-Apr

16-Apr

23-Apr

30-Apr

7-May

14-May

21-May

28-May

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Da

te w

he

n g

rap

es

re

ac

he

d 2

1 B

rix

A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot Noir between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009

10th Apr average pre1998

13th Mar average1998 and post

28 days

Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)

Elevated CO2 increases Canopy Temperature

Free air CO2 enrichment -FACE

CO2 enrichment increases crop growth by approximately 20% CO2 enrichment decreases water loss and increases canopy temperature

Elevated CO2 increases the capacity of the leaf to produce sugar at high temperatures

Pho

tosy

nthe

sis

Leaf temperature (0C)

Long 1991

•Leaves are more tolerant of high temperatures at elevated CO2

•Photosynthetic rates and carbon accumulation can be higher at these high temperatures

•Potential for high sugar and compressed vinatges

Alcohol Contents of wine are increasing

Godden & Gishen 2005

A word from Charles Darwin

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.”

“It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

Climate Change Adaptation Framework

Adaptation Actions

Severity of Climate Change- Temp, Rainfall & Extreme Events

In situ Adaptive

Management

Variety, Canopy man Irrigation Man Pest & Diseae

Adapting Systems

New crops New cropping systems New irrigation system New Markets

Transformation Changed industries New products Different Systems New production areas

Current productivity programs

Strategic system adaptation

Transformation to new climate ,

Need good economic models to assist producers define the milestones

Climate Change Projections -2030 Adelaide Hills Wine Region

Region- Adelaide Hills 2030 high emissions projected change

1970-2005 baseline

Percent Probability

CLIMATE VARIABLE 10 50 90

potential evapotranspiration (%) 1.1 6.6 4.1

Rainfall (%) -14.8 -13.20 -7.1

relative humidity (%) -1.5 -0.6 -0.2

solar radiation(%) 0.1 0.7 1.5

Temperature (°C) +0.5 +0.8 +1.3

wind speed (%) -2.8 0.4 3.4

t_max (°C) +0.6 +0.9 +1.4

t_min (°C) +0.5 +0.8 +1.2

Wine industry adaptation to climate change

• In situ Adaptation – Irrigation management of extreme events– Secure water – Modified canopy management – Re-evaluate crop load /quality relationships – Evolve wine styles

• System Adaptation – Change variety /rootstock– Change row orientation /canopy management – Change wine style – Investigate delays of phenology

• Transformation – Same wine style –new terroir – Row orientation – Secure water –surface/ground – Alcohol management – Flavour management

Cabernet Sauvignon

(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)

Regional Average Mean January Temperature

252423222120191817

Pri

ce

($

/to

nne

)

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

Cabernet Sauvignon

Malbec

Merlot

Pinot Noir

Shiraz

Chardonnay

Chenin Blanc

Colombard

Pinot Gris

Riesling

Sauvignon Blanc

Semillon

Cabernet Franc

Meunier

Muscadelle (Tokay)

Traminer

Verdelho

Ruby Cabernet

Variety code

Coonawarra Riverland Barossa Valley

Gippsland Yarra Valley Margaret River

Vic/NSW Murray Valley Tasmania Hunter Valley

Cabernet Sauvignon

Malbec

Merlot

Pinot Noir

Shiraz

Chardonnay

Chenin Blanc

Colombard

Pinot Gris

Riesling

Sauvignon Blanc

Semillon

Cabernet Franc

Meunier

Muscadelle (Tokay)

Traminer

Verdelho

Ruby Cabernet

Variety code

Coonawarra Riverland Barossa Valley

Gippsland Yarra Valley Margaret River

Vic/NSW Murray Valley Tasmania Hunter Valley

How do these warmer ripening temperatures impact on grape and wine quality ?

Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008

Wine Region Map provided by AWBCClimate data extracted from OzClim

no price data

costmax30

max30

0 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

31 - 35

36 - 40

41 - 45

46 - 50

51 - 55

56 - 60

61 - 65

66 - 70

71 - 75

76 - 80

81 - 85

86 - 90

91 - 95

96 - 100

More im

pact

Less im

pact

Potential reduction in winegrape value from climate change in 2030

Riverina16- 52%

Yarra Valley4 - 10%

Coonawarra1 - 4%

Hunter Valley5 - 17%

Year 2030

Margaret River3 - 7%

* measured by surrogate for quality: $/tonne

No price data

Grapevine development and maturity is strongly influenced by ambient temperature

Jones 2007

Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range

2050 Isotherms move poleward by 150-300km - NH area expands ,SH declines

Jones 2008

% change in land area with equivalent climate% change in land area with equivalent climate

1 e.g. Pinot Noir

15.8-19.1ºC

TotalArea

2 C. Sauvignon19.1-20.2ºC

3 Many

20.2-20.7ºC

4Shiraz

20.7-22.3ºC

5Verdelho

22.3-23.4ºC

6Chenin Blanc23.4-24.8ºC

2030 mid warming 2050 high warming2050 low warming

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mildura (Sunraysia)

Launceston Airport (Tasmania)

Cerberus (Mornington Peninsula)

Tem

per

atu

re

(°C

)Black SaturdaySmoke taint?

Damage to vineyards reported

In the past 200 years, greenhouse gases have continued to increase, and the Earth has warmed

Carbon dioxide and temperature last 1000 years

200

250

300

350

02004006008001000years before 2000 AD

CO

2 (

pp

m)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

tem

pe

ratu

re (

o C)

Cape Grim and South PoleLaw Dome ice corestemperature change

1990

2030

2050

Year


17

18

19

20

21

22

Margaret River 2050

2030

1990

Year


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26Vic/NSW Murray Valley

1990

2030

2050

Year


17

18

19

20

21

22

Margaret River 2050

2030

1990

Year


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


(°C

)

Cabernet Sauvignon

VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)

+1.4C

+2.2C

Chardonnay

+1C

+2C

Cabernet SauvignonMalbecMerlotPinot NoirShirazChardonnayChenin Blanc

ColombardRieslingSauvignon BlancSemillonCabernet FrancTraminerVerdelho

Blackwood Valley Geographe Great Southern

Margaret River Perth Hills Swan District

Cabernet SauvignonMalbecMerlotPinot NoirShirazChardonnayChenin Blanc

ColombardRieslingSauvignon BlancSemillonCabernet FrancTraminerVerdelho

Blackwood Valley Geographe Great Southern

Margaret River Perth Hills Swan District

Distribution of varieties (Bearing hectares) in 2002 in selected wine regions of Western Australia (Source ABS)

1990

2030

2050

Year


17

18

19

20

21

22

Margaret River 2050

2030

1990

Year


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


1990

2030

2050

Year


17

18

19

20

21

22

Margaret River 2050

2030

1990

Year


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


(°C

)

Cabernet Sauvignon

VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)

+1.4C

+2.2C

Chardonnay

+1C

+2C

Warming has dual effects

1990

2030

2050

Year

January February March April May

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

tem

per

atu

re

Coonawarra

2050

2030

1990

Year


14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

tem

per

atu

re

Vic/NSW Murray Valley

2.5 °C

4.2 °C

Impacts of Climate change on Grape ripening temperatures



1-sept6-sept


1-oct6-oct

11-oct

Ganichot, 2002

Australian Phenology Trends for vintage , sugar and alcohol

• Australian vintages are moving forward at about 1 day per year

• Assuming average sugar accumulations of 1 Be’/week in final stages of ripening

• 1 day per year is equivalent of 0.14% sugar per year

• AWRI (Creina Stockley) reported today average increases of 0.14% alcohol increase per year over the same period (1990-2003)



1-sept6-sept


1-oct6-oct

11-oct

Ganichot, 2002

Grapevine Phenology Responds strongly to Temperature

Greg Jones 2008

Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range

Finding the ‘Right’ Climate

Climate Suitability will move South with Climate Change

00midgp1

00midgp2

00midgp3

00midgp4

00midgp5

00midgp6

Coo

ler

clim

ate

vari

etie

s

War

mer

cli

mat

e va

riet

ies

Pinot NoirChard.

Cab Sauv.Merlot

ShirazSemillon

VerdelhoRiesling

Chenin Blanc

E.g.

Present Climate

Year 2050 high warmingYear 2050 mid warming

Year 2030 mid warmingNo varietal preference

2030 lower warming

2050 lower warming

2030 higher warming

2050 higher warming

• Current infrastructure and production is concentrated in the traditional irrigation regions (~60%).

• Need to find varieties suitable for this warmer ‘trailing margin’.

Adaptive challengesAdaptive challenges

River basins

Irrigation regions

Wine regions

What will happen behind this ‘trailing margin’?

Year 2050 lower warming

Cabernet Sauvignon

(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)

Regional Average Mean January Temperature

252423222120191817

Pric

e ($

/tonn

e)

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

Rsq=0.6094

The temperature sensitivity modelThe temperature sensitivity model

Are these phenology changes driven by more than temperature ?- Carbon Dioxide

Documents

Climate Change to 2030 Re-defining Terroir