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8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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CLIMATE CHANGE THE MOSTVULNERABLE PLACES AND
PEOPLEMartin Parry
Grantham Institute /Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London
and UK [email protected]
[Co-Chair Working Group (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability)
2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment]
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1. Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability.
Hundreds of millions of people will be additionally exposed to increased water
stress. Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-
thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)
8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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Undefined
> 50 %
20 to 50 %
5 to 20 %
-5 to 5 %
-20 to -5 %
-50 to -20 %
< -50 %Not assessed
Water
Country-level impacts on rain-fed cereals, % yield change , 2080s(HadCM3-A1FI)
2. Crop yields are projected to decrease , especially at lower latitudesTens of millions estimated to be additionally at risk from hunger.
8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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2020s 2050s 2080s
%
changeinpricesfrom1
990base
line
10
8
6
4
2
0
22020s 2080s 2020s 2080s
40004200
3800
3600
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2050s 2050s
Cerealproduction(mmt)
Referencescenario
Climate changescenario
2020s 2050s 2080sAdditionalmillionsofpeopleat
riskofhunger
5045
40353025
20151050
Additional people at risk of hunger
(0 = reference case, i.e. about 300million in 2000, FAO ).
Projected global cereal production for reference
case and the climate change scenario.
Percentage change in global cereal prices under the
climate change scenario
(0 = reference case).
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Additional number of people at risk of hunger in
Africa under the climate change scenario (0 =
Projected reference case).
2020s 2050s 2080s
45
40
35
30
2520
15
10
5
0
Africa
Additionalmillionsofpeop
leat
riskofhunger
Projections for cereal production in Africa
under the reference case and the climate
change scenario
340360
320300280260240220200
180160140
2020s2050s
2080s 2020s2050s
2080s
Cerealproduction(mmt) Africa
scenario scenario
Reference Climate change
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3. Densely populated megadeltas especially in Asia and
Africa, are most at risk. Tens of millions will be additionally at risk
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4. Health effects will be generally negative, especially on the
poor, elderly, young and the marginalised
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5. Summary: People will be most at risk in:
Most vulnerable regions: Africa, Asian mega-deltas, small islands, the Arctic
Most vulnerable sectors:
water in the dry tropics agriculture in low latitudes human health in poor countries where activities depend on sensitive ecosystems, especially: tundra,
boreal, mountains; or ecosystems already stressed: e.g. mangroves,coral reefs.
In all countries, even those with high incomes, some are especially atrisk: the poor, young children, the elderly, the marginalised.
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6. How can we best respond?
a) Reduce emissions (mitigation)
b) Adaptation (reduce vulnerability)
c) Follow pathways of development and
governance which effectively combine
mitigation AND adaptation
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Committed0.6oC
2.0oC target(pre-ind.)
8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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6a. Summarised impacts from IPCC WG2
Technical Summary; and mitigation targetsCommitted0.6oC
2.0 target(pre-ind.)
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6b. Adaptation options are extensive and well tested. Butwhat are their limits and costs?
8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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Peak c. 2065with start2015
Peak c. 2080with start2025 Peak c. 2100with start
2035
unmitigatedpresent
Recovery by2300 withstart 2015
pre-industrial temp change C
Recovery by2200 with
start 2015
T uncertainty range:
90th percentile temp.
50th percentile temp.
10th percentile temp.
Adaptation levels:low (10% cover)
moderate (50% cover)
large (90% cover)
Peak c. 2065with start 2015
Peak c. 2080with start 2025
Peak c. 3000
with start 2035
Recovery by2200 with start
2015
Recovery by2300 with start
2015
Parry, et al., Nature, April 2009
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6c. Development Pathways (implicitly combining
adaptation and mitigation). IPCCs SRES scenarios
A1 = World of Global Markets: high growth, hightech, low pop,
A2 = World of Regional Enterprise: high pop (11bnin 2050), high growth (but inequitable) [currentpathway]
B1 = World of Global Sustainability: low pop,moderate growth, global environmentalagreements
B2 = World of Local Stewardship: low pop (9 bn in2050), moderate growth, local envt management
8/14/2019 Climate Change - The Most Vulnerable Places and People (Martin Parry)
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
MillionMetricTonnes
SRES A1SRES A2
SRES B1
SRES B2
Projected cereal production under the four SRES scenarios
(no climate change). BLS run with FAO assumptions
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
Changeincerealprices(%)
SRES A1
SRES A2
SRES B1
SRES B2
Projected global cereal prices, relative to 1990 , for the four SRES
marker scenarios (no climate change). BLS with FAO assumptions
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
Additionalmillionsofpeople
SRES A1 SRES A2 SRES B1 SRES B2
Projected numbers of people at risk of hunger, for the four SRES
scenarios (no climate change). BLS with FAO assumptions
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2020 2050 2080
AdditionalMillionsofPeople
A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship
Projected climate change- induced
additional people at risk of hunger
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CONCLUSIONS: HUMANITARIAN
IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGEMOST AT RISK ARE: People in most vulnerable places:
Africa, small islands, Asian mega-deltas
Main effects felt through:increased water shortage, increased risk of hunger, risks to human health
People in most vulnerable livelihoods:un-irrigated farming in dry tropics, poor people in tropical megacities
Poor, elderly, young and marginalised people, including those in developedcountries
HOW CAN WE BEST RESPOND: Even the most stringent mitigation may not avoid a further 2.5 deg C warming
(i.e. 3 deg C above pre-industrial); and the implied impacts are very large.
Adaptation is urgent, and we should plan to adapt for at least 3.5 deg C.
Emissions reductions are needed now, or capacity to adapt may be exceeded.
Equitable and sustainable development, combining both adaptation and mitigation isprobably the most effective response