Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol

and Civil Engineering

Dr Stuart Parkinson

http://www.sgr.org.uk

The basic science…

• Natural ‘greenhouse effect’ – Sun’s heat trapped by greenhouse gases (GHGs)

• Human emissions of GHGs trapping more heat

• This ‘global warming’ is leading to changes in climate

• Assessment of scale of the problem provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Defining the climate problem

• Present global temperatures – are 0.7C higher than 100y ago – are higher than at any time in the last 1000y

• Predicted global temperatures in 2100– will be between 1.4 and 5.8C higher than 1990– will increase faster than at any time since the

transition from last Ice Age (10,000y ago)

Lead to major changes in climate

Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100

• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data;

• 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental;

• 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

Source: IPCC (2001)

Reliability of scientific assessment

• Physics of Greenhouse Effect well understood (observations of Earth, Mars, Venus)

• Wide range of data on past climate – eg ‘ice cores’ show carbon dioxide and temperature

have varied together over past 420,000y

• Climate models calibrated on past changes used to predict future changes

CO2 versus temperature

Human emissions of GHGs

• Carbon dioxide (60% of warming effect)• from burning coal, oil, gas for energy; and deforestation

• Methane (20%)• from gas leaks, livestock, paddy fields

• ‘F’ gases, eg HFCs (14%)• from fridges, air-conditioning, electronics industry etc

• Nitrous oxide (6%)• from nylon industry, agriculture etc

What will be the effects?

• Sea level rise – approx 0.5m by 2100

• ‘More energetic hydrological cycle’– More severe weather, eg storms, floods in some

areas, with droughts in others

• Large regional changes in climate– Jeopardising food, water supplies

• Risk of dramatic/ irreversible climate shifts

• Poorer countries most vulnerable

Possible impacts

Recent UK Meteorological Office study…• Increase in people facing ‘water stress’

– extra 3 billion (four-fold increase) by 2080

• Increase in people facing malaria– extra 290 million by 2080

• Increase in people facing flooding– Eight-fold increase by 2080

• Substantial die-back of tropical forests

Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

• Agreed at Rio Earth Summit in 1992

• Aim: ‘to prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference with the climate system’

• Method: control of greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions

• Industrialised countries agreed to act first

• 190 countries now ratified

Kyoto Protocol (KP)

• Agreed in 1997

• Set targets and timetables for control of emissions of 6 GHGs in 38 industrialised countries (and EU)

• Combined target equals 5.2% reduction in net emissions between 1990 and 2008-2012

• Allowed for use of carbon trading, carbon sinks (forestry etc)

KP Targets

• EU: 8% overall cut compared to 1990– UK: 12.5% cut; Germany: 21% cut; France: 0%

• USA: 7% cut

• Japan: 6% cut

• most Eastern European countries: 8% cut

• Russia: 0%

• Australia: 8% increase

KP current status

• Entered into force on 16th February, 2005

• Ratified by 150 countries

• USA, Australia not ratified for ‘economic’ reasons

Tackling CO2 emissions

• Change energy production– Fuel switching, renewables, cogeneration,

carbon capture and storage, nuclear?

• Preserve and improve forestry– Conservation, reforestation, afforestation

• Improve energy efficiency– Buildings/ transport/ industrial sectors

Improving energy efficiency in buildings sector

Global CO2 emissions in 1990 (MtC/y)

Annual growth rate (1990-95)

Potential reduction in 2010 (MtC/y)

Potential reduction in 2020 (MtC/y)

Buildings 1650 1.0% 700-750 1,000-1,100

Notes

Buildings emissions are approx 25% of total global CO2 emissions from all sectors

Figures include construction and use of buildings

Most reductions available at negative net direct cost

Source: IPCC (2001)

Technical measures

• Over 200 technical energy efficiency measures have been identified in buildings sector

• Main areas– insulation (roofs/ walls/ windows); efficient

space heating/ water heating/ ventilation; efficient appliances/ lighting; environmental design; energy management systems; local energy sources (eg Bipv)

Technical measures

• Space heating is largest energy user

• ‘Integrated building design’ reduces energy use by 40% on average

• Use of energy efficient appliances/ lighting reduces energy use by 40% on average

• ‘Aggressive implementation’ can lead to major GHG reductions and be cost-saving

UK efforts

• Gov estimates UK will beat KP target– GHG emissions reduced by 21% by 2010

• Buildings sector– Business

• UK ETS; climate change levy; CC agreements

– Domestic• Energy Efficiency Action Plan; promotion of new

technologies

Conclusions

• Climate change resulting from human activity is an extremely serious global threat

• Buildings sector is a major source of GHG emissions

• Environmental action by the civil engineering sector is both cost-effective and can make a very large contribution to tackling the problem