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climate change, the EU and the world wide context

Lutz Ribbe (Euronature),Member of the Economic and Social Committee

Lima, april 18, 2008

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content

1. Who is mainly responsible for the GHG emission ( for climate change)?

2. What are the consequences, who is suffering most?

3. What is happening in the EU, and …4. … what can civil society do, what is

our role?

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The 10 biggest CO2-producer (2005)(in million tons – from energy sources: gas, oil, coal)

438 502 532 611880 982

1406

2532

5327

6526

France Italy

Canad

a* UK Ger

many

India*

Japan

Russia

China

USA

responsible for 2/3 of the global CO2-Emission coming from energy use

*= 2002 source: iwr

use of energy = 80% of GHG sources

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The 10 biggest CO2-producer (2005)(in million tons)

438 502 532 611880 982

1406

2532

5327

6526

France Italy

Canad

a* UK

German

y

India*

Japan

Russia

China

USARed = G8-member states (so called `developed countries`)

G8 (13% of global population) responsible for appr. 45% of the global CO2 Emission

USA: more than 22%

*= 2002, source: iwr

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CO2- Emission (tons/ per capita + year)

1,0

3,0

4,4

7,58,0

10,2 10,4

16,718,0

19,7

0,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,0

10,011,012,013,014,015,016,017,018,019,020,021,0

India

China

World

Poland

EU (25)

German

y

Russia

Canad

a

Austra

l.

USA

More than 2 to = unsustainable!!!

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another source: land use change

20% of GHG emission worldwide

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8

unsustainable too!!!

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Land use change

- mainly happens in developing countries - for example - in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil (and other parts of America), Africa

often effected: tropical forests and peat land ……extreme important carbon reservoirs…but also important for the world wide biodiversity (global effect)

we effect global “public goods”…… for which the public is not paying for! Yet!

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Land use change …

- Indonesia: still 80 Mio ha of rainforest, every year they cut 2 Mio ha ( 600 Mio t of CO2)(=UK)

- Amazonas: 50% or more of the rainforest might be destroyed by 2030 ( 96 bln t of CO2)

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… good for our climate?

- Deforestation/ overuse is happening in many other countries too

very unsustainable way of using landforest protects against flood (regional effect)

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Land use change

- even land use change nowadays takes place mainly in the so called „developing countries“, the products are often/ mainly consumed in industrialized countries

feed stuff for animals (EU: imports protein from more than 10 Mio ha outside the EU, world wide increase of meat production)

more and more: biofuels wood (legal and illegal logging)

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Consequences

- dramatic economic consequences, for the global but also local economy (f.e. private farmers) (see Stern report, costs: up to 20% of our GDP)

- People will be directly effected:– many different health problems (see WHO)

– hurricanes: more often and stronger– floods (more heavy rainfall, deforestation)

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Consequences

- problem: water supply - f.e. in those regions, where it depends on glacier

(20% of the world wide population), Peru: lost 22% of the glacier mass in the past 25 years

- Caribbean- south of Europe

- problem: food (quantity of production and food-price), problems with fishery see: IMF last weekend + our declaration

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a kind of „summary“

1. the developed countries are mainly responsible for the GHG emissions, directly or indirectly

2. but: poor people are suffering most!3. we are at the beginning of new

competition in land use between food, feed and energy/ biofuel production (and biodiversity) (different critical opinions prepared and adopted by the EESC = role of civil society)

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Decisions of the EU-summit

- CO2 reduction (EU-summit, march 2007):- -30% until 2020, if other industrialized

countries contribute in the same way- “guaranteed”: -20% until 2020- -60 to -80% until 2050 (basis: 1990)

- ambitious goals! Commission: a new „industrial revolution“

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CO2- emission (tons/ per capita) 200510,2

8,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

Germanytoday

EU today

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2020: EU goal - 30%, Germany - 40%10,2

6,1

8,0

5,6

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

Germanytoday

Germany 2020 EU today EU 2020

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2050: goal - 60%10,2

6,1

4,1

8,0

5,6

3,2

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

Germanytoday

Germany 2020 Germany 2050 EU today EU 2020 EU 2050

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2050: goal - 80%10,2

6,1

2,1

8,0

5,6

1,6

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

Germanytoday

Germany 2020 Germany 2050 EU today EU 2020 EU 2050

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Energy package

- 20% of all energy coming fromrenewable sources (by 2020)

- Energy efficiency: +20% until 2020 1,5% each year: buildings, cars,

products- Transport policy (more railway)- 10% biofuels (by 2020 ☺ + )

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Climate change - just a technical problem?

- Reaching these ambitious goals is not a mere technical issue.

- It takes more than saving energy and technological solutions like solar/ renewables

- It is all about political power and markets; the idea is to „make money“

- Interest groups !

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Centralized/ De-centralized structures

- the age of fossil energy was/is the age of centralized, relatively inefficient energy production structureslarge power plants with low efficiency rates (35 to 45%, residual heating)

very few global operating oil companiesnot many large energy suppliers, with excellent access to decision makerin Germany: 4, in France: just 1

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50% of the energy of coal gets lost

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electricity to warm up water:

90% of the energy of coal gets lost

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unsustainable too!!!

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Centralised/De-centralised structures

- The age of regenerating energies becomes the age of de-centralized and efficient energy structures:

Sun on the roof (Electricity and Heating)Combined Power and Heating Systems (with more than 90% energy efficiency, instead of 45% in the case of large power (coal/nuclear) plants)De-centralized energy circuits using biomassConsumer starts to be a producer (☺

+ )

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Access to cheap energy

- A crucial question for fighting against poverty !!!

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30

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Who will profit?

- new energy producers (consumers becomes producer), new market players

- new workplaces in the regions: energy saving techniques, short-distance supply networks, solar energy and local workforce, biomass/ -gas, including decentralized vegetable oil technologies

- but the old „large“ energy suppliers wish to maintain centralized structures; they live from them

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needs

- a much more efficient use of energy in both, the developed and developing countries

- structural changes in the energy and transport sector towards non polluting energy

- help people and governments in establishing appropriate (= cheap) technologies such as renewable from local sources for local use

- exchange of ideas and best practices - programs to implement them

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EU-India round table

- discussion on renewable energy and climate change

- practical example form daily life: how to cook?– today: cow dung, wood, kerosene

health problems for women, environmental damage

– tomorrow: electricity from big power plants?– or: cooker fired with vegetable oil from local

production?

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Plant Oil Stove - Protos

Facts and figures:

Power range: 1.6–3.8 kWUsage: 2 - 6 liters oil per week for a family

of 4-5 → 100 - 300 liters per year

Fuel: All plant oils, also used oils(development with coconut-oil)

Efficiency: 35 – 48 %Emissions: Ten times lower than with high quality keroseneCO2-balance: Neutral

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Documentation of integrated project

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needed: vegetable oil

Strategy of de-centralization?– a sustainable vegetable oil production by

private farmer– as a new source for a new environmental

friendly, regional energy networks– in which a farmer can become a real

player in the economic chainor

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vegetable oil/ biofuel

Strategy of centralized structure?– should the farmer just produce a cheap

row material? – or do we want to see not farmers, but an

“effective” industrial production by big companies

– just for export as a “bio”-fuel, to feed the cars all over the world?

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dezentralized oil-mill

Ölmühle Kramerbräuhof in Pfaffenhofen

Ölmühle Wöhrl in Galgenhofen / FFB

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Petrol station on a farm

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pure vegetable oil for tractors

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Pure vegetable oil for heating orcooling systems

100 kW el

120 kW th

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the role of civil society

- we have to start and to follow the discussion on the „new“ energy policy

- organize itself to counteract the lobby and self-interest of big multinational companies

without civil society the new energy age will not be possible

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… let´s explore new avenues!