Climate change simulations of

the South American Monsoon System

CLARISA Europe-South America Networkfor Climate Change Assessmentand Impact Studies

Rafael TerraIMFIA - Universidad de la República, Uruguay

VAMOS/CLIVAR/WRCP8th Annual Panel Meeting

7-9 de Marzo del 2005México

Analysis Projects to IPCC AR4

Dominant large-scale patterns influencing the seasonal predictability of precipitation over South America.

PIs: Carolina Vera, CIMA/UBA; G. Silvestri, UBA; B. Liebmann (NOAA/CDC)

Frequency changes in daily weather regimes over South-Eastern South America.

PIs: Jean-Philippe Boulanger, CNRS; G. Cazes and C. R. Mechoso, (Uruguay-UCLA).

Analysis of regional circulation regimes over southern South America and their response under global warming.

PI: Silvina A. Solman, CIMA (UBA-CONICET).

Surface climate response associated with Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes.

PIs: Andrea Carril, INGV; C. Menéndez CIMA/UBA.

Dominant large-scale patterns influencing the seasonal

predictability ofprecipitation over South

America

Carolina Vera (1), Gabriel Silvestri (1),

and Brant Liebmann (2)

(1) CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

(2) NOAA/CDC, Boulder, Colorado, USA

1. To describe the relative contributions of the leading modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation and the SST in the SH to the precipitation variance over SESA in present climate (from reanalyses).

2. To investigate the ability of the climate models in reproducing the main features of such modes and their impact on South America precipitation.

3. To diagnose variations of the activity of the leading modes of atmospheric circulation and SST on climate change simulations and to assess climate change scenarios of precipitation over South America based on such variations.

OBJECTIVES

Large-scale signatures on precipitation over SESA

CORR(SSTA,PRECIP(SESA)) CORR(STM200,PRECIP(SESA))

ND ND

JF

MA

JF

MA

Leading Patterns of 500-hPa height anomalies Pattern 1 Pattern 2 Pattern 3

(AAO) (PSA1) (PSA2)

NCEP

Re-analyses

NASA (GISS-Model E20/ HYCOM)

NASA (GISS-Model E20/ RUSSELL)

Contour interval 3 m

Contour interval 1 m

25% 7% 8%

18% 11% 8%

24% 7% 8%

OND

ENSO

NCEP

Re-analyses

NASA (GISS-Model E20/ HYCOM)

NASA (GISS-Model E20/ RUSSELL)

OND

Surface climate response associated with SAM changes

First diagnostics using the multi-model dataset from PCMDI

Andrea Carril (INGV, Bologna)

Claudio Menéndez (CIMA, Buenos Aires)

Ensemble 2, 20C3m, 10 models, (34) runs, time slice 1970-20001. cnrm_cm3 (1)2. gfdl_cm2_0 (1) 3. giss_aom (2) 4. giss_model_e_h (5) 5. giss_model_e_r (9) 6. miroc3_2_hires (1) 7. miroc3_2_medres (3) 8. mri_cgcm2_3_2a (5) 9. ncar_ccsm3_0 (5: run 1, 3, 5, 6, 9) 10. ncar_pcm1(2)

Ensemble 1, sresA2, 6 models, (12) runs, time slice 2070-21001. cnrm_cm3 (1)2. gfdl_cm2_0 (1) 3. giss_model_e_r (1) 4. miroc3_2_medres (3) 5. mri_cgcm2_3_2a (5) 6. ncar_pcm1(1)

Based on the “Ensemble 2” for the present climate and on the “Ensemble 1” for the future climate (A2 scenario)

• Anomalies removing the seasonal cycle and relative to every single run

• Linear detrend of the 30-year periods

• Ensemble is built by concatenating single runs

METHODOLOGY

sresA2z500 - EOF 1 (28%)

20C3mz500 - EOF 1 (28%)

Present climate: Composition for SAM+ events (1SD)

Future climate: Composition for SAM+ events (1SD)

Sea level Pressure Surface Temperature Precipitation

Surface Temperature Precipitation

Future scenarios of atmospheric circulation, precipitation and temperature in the South America Monsoon Region.

PIs: Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti, P. L. Silva Dias, D. Herdies, C. Cunningham, H. Camargo, T.Tarasova, K.Andrade, (CPTEC-Brazil)

Sensitivity of South American Monsoon-related Features to Anthropogenic Changes in Radiative Forcing.

PIs: A. Seth, S. Rauscher (IRI-USA), and M. Rojas (Chile)

Poleward penetration of the monsoon over the South American continent in a changing climate.

PI: Rafael Terra, (IMFIA-Uruguay)

Tropical Extratropical interactions in present and future times: The connections between La Plata and the Amazon Basins.

PIs: J. Marengo, C. Campos, M. de Mello and W. Soares (CPTEC-Brazil).

Analysis Projects to IPCC AR4 (Continued)

OBJECTIVE:

To identify in the future scenarios, changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns and climate variables over South America and nearby oceans, related to the life cycle of the SAMS.

The purpose is to analyze changes in precipitation and temperature over South America, considering different regions, different regimes and changes that can occur in climatological systems, such as: Bolivia High, Upper level Cyclone Vortex over the Atlantic Ocean, ITCZ, SACZ, Atlantic and Pacific Subtropical Highs, Jet streams.

Changes in tropical convection of other regions and connections with changes over South America will also be investigated using different statistical techniques, including clustering analysis, EOFs.

Of particular interest is the analysis of changes in the general characteristics of the SH teleconnection patterns relevant to S. American climate.

FUTURE SCENARIOS OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN

THE SOUTH AMERICA MONSOON REGION

PIs: Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti, P. L. Silva Dias, D. Herdies, C. C Cunningham, H. Camargo, T. Tarasova, K. Andrade (Brazil).

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

The two regions with larger changesin Precipitation are

Southeast and Northeast Braziland the La Plata basin region.

Larger increase of Temperature over

Central South America

1% CO2 EXPERIMENT

Difference between (Years 71 to 280) - (Years 11 to 70)

Poleward penetrationof the Monsoon

over South Americain a Changing Climate

Rafael Terra, (IMFIA-Uruguay)

CO2 effect only: 100 years Pre-Industrial100 years 2 x CO2100 years 4 x CO2

January only: “Deep” summer

Multimodel: MPIOthers ......

Maps: 2xCO2 – Pre-Industrial

ANALYSES

Precipitation

2 mm/day contours(Red means less rain in 2xCO2)

SST

1 °C Contours(Red means

warmer in 2xCO2)

LONGWAVE SHORT WAVE HEAT FLUXES

10 W/m2 contours – (Red means higher fluxes into the ground in 2xCO2)

ENERGY BUDGET AT THE SURFACE

WATER VAPOR PATHTOTAL CLOUDINESS

10% contours(Red means less clouds in 2xCO2)

5 Kg/m2 contours(Red means more WVP in 2xCO2)

RADIATIVE FORCING

Tropical South Atlantic/South America scenarios; assess ocean circulation changes associated with tropical-extratropical exchanges.

PI: Ilana Wainer, USP.

The ENSO effects in the atmospheric circulation and in the climate of southern South America.

PIs: V. Barros, I. Camilloni, M. Doyle (CIMA/UBA, Argentina).

Analysis of extreme indeces.PIs: M. Rusticucci and O. Peñalba, UBA; J. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE; M. Renom, UR; M. Núñez and C. Menéndez, CIMA/UBA.

The comparative analysis of interannual variability of global climate characteristics of the two hemispheres using adiabatic invariants.

PI: I. Pisnitchenko (CPTEC, Brazil).

Analysis Projects to IPCC AR4 (Continued)

Extreme indices in South America.Model vs. Station Data

CLARIS Work Package 3.2: High-quality regional daily data base for climate

trends and extreme event studies.

MODEL: CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (hi-res), Japan.

Rusticucci M., Penalba O. (Argentina); Marengo J. (Brazil); Renom M. (Uruguay).

INDICESR95t: Percent of Annual Total Precipitation due to Events exceeding the 1961-

1990 95th Percentile Tn90: Percent of time Tmin > 90th percentile value of daily minimum

temperature.

Station data: daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures Period: 1960-2000

MODEL DATA

MEAN

(% annual precip when precip > 95

percentile)

SIGMA

(interannual variability in %)

R95T (Rainfall)

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 to 4 4 to 8 8 to 12 12 to 16 16 to 20

MODEL DATA

MEAN

(% days when

Tn>90th)

SIGMA

Interannual variability

(%)

Tn90 (MinTemp.)

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

4 to 7 7 to 10 10 to 13 13 to 16 16 to 19

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2 to 5.5 5 .5 to 9 9 to 1 2.5 1 2.5 to 16 1 6 to 1 9.5

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Mean squared error (Model vs.Data)

R95T (Rainfall)Tn90 (Temperature)

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Regional climate scenarios based on GCMs:

TRENDS OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN BORDER OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC HIGH

Vicente Barros, Ines Camilloni (CIMA/UBA)

Objective

The annual pattern of SLP in the western border of the South Atlantic High between 25°S and 45°S has shifted southward since 1950 as revealed by the NCEP reanalyses and synoptic data.

This study discusses this shift using NCEP reanalyses and outputs from different GCMs.

Future scenarios of the SLP patterns taken from GCMs are discussed.

HADCM3, CSIRO Mk2, GFDL R30, ECHAM4/OPYC3 (done)GCMs for IPCC-AR4 (analysis in progress)

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC2 - NCEP - 45.1%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

FL1FL 2

The first two patterns represent the winter and the summer fields and jointly explain 90 % of the variance.

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC1 - NCEP - 46.1%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

Results: PCA applied to the correlation matrix of seasonal means of SLP (NCEP, 1950/2000)

The FLs of these two modes indicate a growing contribution to the total variance of the summer mode at the winter mode expense consistent with the observed southward trend of the regional field.

Results: PCA applied to the correlation matrix of seasonal means of SLP (GCMs, past+future)

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC2 - HADCM3 - 40.4%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC1 - HADCM3 - 49.8%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC1 - GFDL R30 - 54.6%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

PC2 -GFDL R30 - 34.8%

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

HADCM3

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

FL1FL2FL1+FL2

GFDL R30

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

FL1FL2FL1+FL2

HADCM3

GFDL R30

Regional scenarios of climate change for southern South

America

Silvina Solman and Mario Nuñez

CIMA (CONICET/UBA)

In the context of the

Second National Communication (Argentina)

regional scenarios of climate change have been derived

nesting MM5 regional model into HadAM3 AGCM.

Up to now, two 10-years simulations have been performed:

• Present Climate: Decade 1981-1990

• Future scenario: Decade 2081-2090 A2 SRES