Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Herman.Sievering@colorado.edu Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.

and

Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado

Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports 

CO2 air concentrations over last 60 years, parts per million

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere (IPCC)

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)

“Bottom line” SLR bullets:

*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050

*60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100 When might 1-meter (3 ft. 4 in.) SLR occur??

The BIG Three

*Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year

*Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4th of SLR per year **GreenlandGreenland & Antarctic Melt: ~~1/5th of SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990s Key Review: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138

SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow insidious** impact

Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in.

Year Best Estimate, IPCC

2010 8” - measured; rapid rate

2050 1’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter

2100 3’ 4” ≈ equal to 1 meter

Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________

**eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now.

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)

“Bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100

*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050

*60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100

Needed: A present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100

NYC Case Study: Super-storm Sandy

Super-storm Sandy: 1’ water depth due to human-caused SLR

NYC Case Study: Super-storm Sandy

Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 10’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge

By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 met1 meter er - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’

3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100

Super-storm Sandy: Human Climate Change a factor? *Majority of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1930) is human-caused *Part of 5°F higher ocean Temp (birth region) is due to us *Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path

YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy. Impossible to say how much

Some Solutions after Break

Solutions: Government Driven

Renewable Energy: Govt. credits/subsidies needed

Wind: cost less than coal in many areas

Solar: rapid growth; Germany/European Union

Solutions in Private Sector

Insurance Industry: world’s largest in Global Economy

“Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades; ~40% of payouts

Munich Reinsurance: largest insurer of Insurance Co.s

concluded - in 1973 - there is:

“insurance risk from human-caused climate change”

Insurance industry Climate Change projects; U. of Cal. study

Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $195,000,000,000

Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000

- Toyota Prius: ~$28,000

- Chevy VOLT: ~$27,000

Electric Cars*

- Ford Focus E: ~$30,000

- Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000

*Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts

Last two slides may be useful added visual material

Super-storm Sandy

Regional Sea Level Rise: 2091-2100 mean vs 1900, IPCC

Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’