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Climate change
Source: IPCC Assessment Report,
2007
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Boiling frog effect
Al Gore - 45th Vice President of the United States from 1993 to
2001
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Lifespan of a frog & the time for boilingwaterLifespan of
human & the time forclimate change
If the time for boiling wateris 6 or 7 years, should the
same frog care about beingboiled or starving to deathin the
pot?
=> Cost Benefit Analysis(CBA)
B L 2 1 T
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Basic greenhouse effect (pp. 259 to 260)
B orn Lom org, 2 1 T e ept caorn om org, e ep
caenvironmentalistenvironmentalist
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How much does CO2 affect thetemperature?
- Particles
- Water vapour
,,environmentalistenvironmentalistHow much does CO2 affect the
temperature?
(pp.265 to 266)
j b ( ) h k i lBj L b (2001) Th Sk ti l
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Bjorn Lomborg, (2001) The SkepticalBjorn Lomborg, (2001) The
Skeptical
environmentalistenvironmentalist
- Land ice melts contributes
of SLR- Thermal expansion of
water within the oceans
contributes of SLR
Consequences: sea level rise(pp. 289 to 291)
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The number of people at riskis unreasonable:
IPCC neglected theimprovement in sea
protection and so thenumber of people in riskareas increases
with thetotal population.
The IPCC assumptionevolving protection only
includes measures thatwould be implementedwithout sea level rise
is notreasonable
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Debates
The experts continued arguing about the Greenland and
WestAntarctica.
80% of 300 million people live less than 5 meters above sea
levelare in developing countries. The high-risk red zone such
as
Egypt and Vietnam and low-lyingisland nations and coastal areas
ofother countries.
In Vietnam, 38% of the countryspopulation, 36% of its GDP, and
87%of its wetlands located at less than 5meters above sea
level.
The IPCC Debate on Sea Level Rise: Critical Stakes for Poor
Countries (DavidThe IPCC Debate on Sea Level Rise: Critical Stakes
for Poor Countries (David
Wheeler, Feb 2, 2007), Page 1:Wheeler, Feb 2, 2007), Page 1:
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GPS Aids in Sea Level Rise Debate, World Climate ReportGPS Aids
in Sea Level Rise Debate, World Climate Report
February 9, 2010February 9, 2010
IPCC with Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) corrected: Over
the 1961 to 2003 period, the average rate of global mean
sealevel rise is estimated from tide gauge data to be 1.8 0.5mm
yr1.
Wppelmann with GPS corrected: Sea level rise of 1.61 0.19 mm/yr
over the past century
Measuring sea level changes is more difficult than one
mightthink, and uncertainties abound
The origin of the differences lies in the methods used tocorrect
the tide gauge records for vertical displacements ofthe land upon
which they are located.
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Decadal rate of sea level rise from satellites (red curve)
appended to the decadal rate of global sea level rise
as determined from a 9-station tide gauge network for the period
1904-2003 (blue curve) and from a 177-
station tide gauge network for the period 1948-2002 (adapted
from Holgate, 2007).
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The change in the net relative sea level trend in mm/year
between June2008 and June 2009 (National Tidal Centre, Bureau of
Meteorology,Australian Government, 2009)
li h
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Response to climate changeand SLR
Source: Copenhagen Consensus
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Case study: Mekong Delta inVietnam
Adaptation to Sea Level Rise
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Six Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying
Island states
Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh VietnamVietnam Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe
India Cambodia VietnamVietnam Tunisia Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi
Chad VietnamVietnam China Bangladesh Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan
Source: World Bank, 2008
S l l i i i
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Sea level rise scenarios inMekong Delta
Source: Ministry of Natural Resourcesand Environment, Vietnam,
2009
Sea LevelRise
Inundatedareas
Scenario 1 65 cm 5,133 km2
(12.8%)Scenario 2 75 cm 5,780 km2
(19%)
Scenario 3 100 cm 15,116 km2
(37.8%)
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Adaptation to Sea Level Rise
Governmentsresponses:
- Policies: Law,
strategy, legaldocument
- Living with flood
policy
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- Dyke systems- Technology andknowledge support for
weather forecast, newseeds, climate changescenarios.
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Adaptation to Sea Level Rise
Farmers responses:
- Shifting from Agriculture to Aquaculture
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- Bamboo stilts and mangroveplanting
oo scap ng
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oo - scap ngCommunities or People
Clusters
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The story of a monkey
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