Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the Process of

Industrialization and Urbanization

Jiahua Pan Institute for Urban & Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jiahuapan@163.com

UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change & Development Policy

28-29 Sept., 2012, Helsinki, Finland

Emissions trend

Challenges Urbanization

Industrialization

Opportunities

Mitigation policies

conclusions

content

CO2 emissions peaked, or to be peaked? US, EU, China and India compared

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/.

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Mt CO2

China UK Brazil India Japan US

Emissions trends: GDP per capita and CO2 Emission per capita, BASIC and Major EU Countries

0123456789

101112131415

CO2 Em

ission per capita ( ton CO

2/person)

20.000 15.000 10.000 30.000 35.000

GDP per capita, $US

25.000 45.000 40.000 5.000 0

China UK Italy

Germany France India

Brazil South Africa

Data Source： 1.CO2 Emission data is from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center(CDIAC) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2011，include emission from fossil fuel combustion and Cement process 。 2.GDP Data is from World Bank Database 2012，Price is 2010 dollar constant price。 3.Data of CO2 Emission from fossil fuel combustion from CDIAC and IEA are basically Consistent， Error is in 1%.

Post-industr. Late stage

Medium stage Early stage Pre-industr.

Challenges: industrialization in different parts of China at various stages

Industrial production (physical output for selected manufactured goods, 2009 and 2011) : -- world workshop for global market -- no more room for physical expansion

unit 2009 % world 2011

raw steel mt 568 46.6 684

steel mt 696 ～50 883

cement bt 1.63 >50 2.09

aluminum mt 12.85 35 17.68

copper mt 4.13 25 5.18

coal bt 3.05 45 3.52

Chemical f. mt 66.0 35 62.17

unit 2009 % world 2011

automobile m 13.79 25 18.41

computer m 182 60 320

Color TV m 98.99 48 122.31

refrigerator m 59.30 60 86.99

Air conditioner m 80.78 70 139.12

Mobile phone m 619.0 50 1,133.0

Chemical fiber m 27.3 57 33.9

Cotton fiber m 23.9 46 29.0

• End of 2011: urbanization rate: 51.3%, totaling 691m • Incomplete urbanization: 250 m rural migrants in

cities • 2030: urban. Rate: 70%; 300 million people • Rural: increase in income and living standard

Challenges: Urbanization

Consumer behaviour:

End of 2011: automobile fleet totals 105.8 million, 16.4% increase over the previous year. Private vehicles 78.7 million; households cars: 43.2 million, 25.5% more than 2010.

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Urban Population城镇（%）

Rural Population乡村（%）

Urban Population（10000）城镇（万人）

Rural Population(10000)乡村（万人）

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单位：美元 current USD

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?page=1

Opportunities: increase in capabilities（1970-2010）

Demographic trend: peak and aging

census date conducted

Growth rate per yr

(%)

Family size (no.)

Urban. Rate (%)

% 0-14 yrs % 60 yrs & above

total population

(M)

6th 1st Nov 2010

0.57% 3.10 49.68% 16.60% 8.87% 1,371

5th 1st Nov 2000

1.07% 3.44 36.09% 22.89% 6.96% 1,295

4th Jul 1990 1.48% 3.96 26.23% 27.69% 5.57% 1,160

3rd 1st July 1982

2.10% 20.6% 1,032

2nd 30th June 1964

18.4% 40.4% 5.5% (60 yrs)

723

1st 30th June 1953

13.26% 574

Source: population census bulletin, various years

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年份

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印度

Opportunities: Energy security, env quality Primary energy consumption (100 mtoe) for selected economies

2011 in China: total primary energy consumption 3.48 btce, 7.0% increase over 2010

2012-07-21: Jingshi Junction, Beijing

2012-06-23: Hezhou, Guangxi

Opportunities: Climate Security – urban resilience

Drought in

Shandong Province,

2011

Mitigation policies: target setting & implementation 2020 CO2 reduction targets

Per unit GDP reduction of CO2 by 40%—45%, as compared to 2005 level Share of non-fossil fuel energy over primary energy consumption: 15%； Increase in forested area by 40 m ha as compared to 2005 level; timber

volume increase by 1.3 billion cubic meters, as compared to 2005 level 12th five year (2011-2015) plan mandatory targets

Cut of Conventional environmental pollutants Chemical oxygen demand and SO2 by 8% NH3 and NOx by 10%

Forest cover increase to 21.66％, timber volume increase by 600 m cubic meters

Energy and CO2 emission Energy consumption cap Energy saving: 16% energy intensity reduction Carbon reduction: 17% carbon intensity reduction

Non-fossil fuel energy: increase in share from 8.3% in 2010 to 11.4% 2015

Regional desegregation of national targets for performance evaluation on local gov officials

regions provinces Energy intensity

targets

Group I Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangshu, Zhejiang and

Guangdong 18%

Group II Beijing, Hebei, Lianning and Shandong 17%

Group III Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqin,

Sichuan and Shaanxi 16%

Group IV Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan,

Ganshu and Ningxia 15%

Group V Hainan, Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang 10%

Mitigation policies: measures & actions Energy efficiency

super- super- critical thermal power, mandatory shutdown of small scale generation units

automobile: from Euro I to Euro IV and V in 10 years Buildings codes

renewable energy China became the largest investor in renewable energy market, with 48.9 billion

USD in 2010, consisting 28% of the world investment. Wind: China has 42.3 GW of wind power; surpassed the US in terms of total

installed capacity. China has become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment.”

Solar: by 2011, China has 13018.4MW Solar PV, consists 47.8% of the world market. Solar water heaters: completely commercialised

Hydropower: China’s Hydro power installation increased 5.3% in 2010, the newly added installation consists 50% of the world total installation in 2010.

Bio-gas: forestation Sources:UNDP2010 Report on Renewable Energy; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA);

Low carbon cities

Source: IEA, 2011, China National Statistic Yearbook 2011

per capita CO2

10.47

14.8913.36

7.9

4.896.23

4.84

8.27

3.38

19.8

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beijing

tianjin

shanghai

chongqing

hainan

China

world EU

developing US

Low carbon city pilot programmes: low

carbon city planning • Target setting: short and

long term

• measures Energy efficiency measures

Renewable energy utilization

Forest sinks

• Policies: cap & trade, incentives, regulation

• Consumer behavior

Conclusions: the way forward Climate compatible development for climate

security: urban planning and management Transforming the energy system for securer

energy supply: affordable, sustainable, and reliable

Consumption ethics: sustainable and low carbon, respect for nature, away from wasteful and luxurious consumption

Integration: pollution control, low carbon, ecological restoration

Working together: global efforts