Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP) · Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP) Scoping Studies on State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) ... in the recent past applies

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Report on:

Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP)

Scoping Studies on State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC)

Study #2:

Assessment of the knowledge and data gaps to deliver SAPCCs,

and a strategy to address needs of six States –

Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Maharashtra & Orissa

Prepared by:

The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) University, New Delhi

Submitted by:

State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change (SKMCCC)

Environmental Planning & Coordination Organization (EPCO), Bhopal

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Executive Summary

The study aims at scoping the present information and knowledge bases available in six Indian States

on climate change risks and vulnerabilities. Assessment of present status of climate change

knowledge would help in identifying crucial data gaps, and for making optimal use of available

information base to design and effectively implement policy and programmes against climate

change risks, as is being targeted by the CCIP. The study hence seeks to feed into the CCIP’s agenda

for enhancing States’ capacity for action on climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The study enquires into three knowledge domains available specific to each of the study States, viz.,

1) assessment of present status of climate change risks at state level and future projections, 2)

sectoral impact assessments of climate change risks, and 3) on-going initiatives having relevance for

management of risks associated with future climate change. A synthesis of strategic knowledge

needs for key sectors is presented along with a specific consideration of the needs to carry out

mitigation actions at the sub-national level. Further, a typology of knowledge and data needs has

been identified based on the enquiry. This typology, highlights a broad range of information and

evidence bases that would be essential for a State to generate for effective climate change

adaptation strategy building and implementation.

The key issues this Report identifies are summarized as under.

Firstly, State-level assessments of climate change risks and vulnerabilities and future projections of

climate parameters are found to be largely inadequate at present. There are few states, however,

that have gained from regional level climate projection studies: the EU high-noon projections for

entire Gangetic belt is applicable for Bihar; climate projections for entire north-eastern India applies

to Assam; and the 4 sectorX4 region climate risks and vulnerability assessment as executed by INCAA

in the recent past applies for conditions emerging in coastal states of Kerala, Odisha and

Maharashtra. Regional projections on climate profiles could be taken as indicative of future climatic

conditions as might prevail for the above mentioned states. Nevertheless this does not substitute

the need for State specific projections with higher confidence limits and lower uncertainty that are

capable of providing more robust understanding on future climate related risks. Hence, having State

level climate projections for different scenarios through sophisticated modelling exercises (as has

been done for Maharashtra) would be essential for all the States, to act more prepared against the

future climate risks.

Secondly, models on climate projections would require observational data on different climate

parameters, and generation of higher resolution climate statistics. It will be hence important to

create basic infrastructure through automated weather stations at different locations within a State,

and to make them connected through a well-managed network. The observed parameters should

be recorded at a regular interval, following a standardized protocol issued by IMD/ relevant central

authority, which will allow comparative analysis on climate change. Appropriate skill building among

climate scientists and technicians involved in the process of recording and analysing observed data

would need to be ensured through rigorous training and continuous update of knowledge. The study

puts forward key specific suggestions on types of observations and inventories that need to be built

up, to facilitate knowledge bases related to observations on important climate parameters.

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Thirdly, there remains a huge void in all the States, in terms of present knowledge on sectoral

impacts of climate change. As noted during the intensive consultations that had fed into this

document, key stakeholders from different State departments across the states could identify

specific needs where sectoral assessments should be carried out on a priority basis. The list includes,

but is not restricted to, evaluation of climate impacts on different crop varieties (i.e., rice, wheat),

bio-diversity species, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, human and animal health, and so on. The

study presents a long list of suggestions as put forwarded by the stakeholders in connection to

impact assessment studies. Suggestions on baseline inventories on GHG emissions, bio-diversity,

wet-lands, dry-lands, etc were found important, which would create the baseline inventories on

stocks and flows, and would allow keeping track of alterations with changing climate parameters.

Lastly, a proper recording of experiences related to implementation of climate change projects, and

assessment of their impacts is considered to be important. The study calls for establishing an

appropriate system of adaptation and mitigation project data base, which will act as compendium of

knowledge created through different projects across States and thereby enable experience sharing

in the practice domain. Creation of case-studies based on best practices that demonstrate efficient

adaptation and mitigation efforts, would be very useful for sharing of knowledge within and across

the States.

The study identifies the on-going initiatives in the States, and the various agencies functional at State

or district levels, which may be effectively used as important ‘enablers’ in order to address the

knowledge and data gaps, through appropriate technical and management support under the CCIP.

A strategic approach is suggested (illustrated in the schematic below) which involves a range of

activities in connection to: generation of observed data, project/intervention data from adaptation

and mitigation projects, research capacity building, knowledge dissemination and climate change

risk communication across diverse group of stakeholders.

Climate Statistics

GHG inventories

Natural Resource Accounting

Database on Impact Assessment

Data base on Adapation and Mitigation

Copendium of best practices and case studies

Validation of

project

based

information

Building

opportunities

for testing of

association

Database on financing

source and mechanism

Important information support for initiatives

Observation Data base Project Data base

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1. Background

The Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP) aims to strengthen States’ capacities for relevant

strategy identification, appropriate prioritization from available options, and effective

implementation that would make the States’ development pathways resilient to climate change risks

and vulnerabilities. In this regard an essential pre-requisite is an adequate knowledge and evidence

base that informs decision making on climate change. The scoping of the currently existing

knowledge base at the sub-national level is expected to give important direction to the CCIP’s

agenda for enhancing States’ institutional capacity for action on climate change adaptation and

mitigation.

The CCIP is envisaged to be executed in partnership with State governments, private agencies, and

communities, in order to: a) raise efforts/initiatives for generating evidences; b) enhance the level of

communication within and outside State governments, by improving opportunities for exchange of

diverse set of knowledge, information and methods; and, c) expand opportunities for building links

between different networks and initiatives within and outside the States. The present exercise hence

scopes out the ‘needs’ regarding State specific climate risks-related information, with an emphasis

on specific knowledge requirements for the priority sectors identified in the SAPCCs. It points out

State specific knowledge and data availability, and scopes out important knowledge gaps that

restrict States’ choices for building most suitable strategies for climate change adaptation.

2. Study Objectives

This scoping study aims at –

A) Accessing the available level of knowledge and data by,

Assessing the timing, location, and severity of future climate change impacts (in the

short, medium and long term);

The level of vulnerability and uncertainties around it and;

The manner in which this information is used in planning and decision making at

different levels

B) Undertaking assessment of the:

Knowledge and data gaps & its limitations to assess climate change interaction with

existing vulnerabilities at the national and state level;

Research capacity and its communication.

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C) And attempt developing strategy for:

Data and knowledge generation,

Knowledge dissemination, and;

Informed action based on the gaps identified, including building institutional

capacity.

For each of the six States, the approach adopted is as follows. First, we describe existing knowledge

base on risks and vulnerability available from State specific projections, and the regional or national

level efforts, if any, made in this regard in the recent past. Second, based on information gained from

stakeholders’ consultations, we identify key knowledge gaps and priority activities to address these

gaps. Third, we identify institutions available within the States, capable of providing important

information-based support for the CCIP initiatives. Fourth, we present a sector-wise synthesis of key

knowledge products for effective SAPCC implementation in the six study States. Fifth, there is

specific attention to knowledge requirements for SAPCC-defined mitigation actions. Sixth, a typology

of information needs has been developed to help define the strategic approach to knowledge

generation and its dissemination. The final section of this report presents the strategy for data and

knowledge generation, dissemination of information across different State departments, and also

for sharing knowledge base among important non-State stakeholders as well.

3. Data sources

The information about State specific knowledge and data bases related to climate change risks and

vulnerabilities, sectoral impacts, and on-going initiatives, is sourced from multiple origins, viz.-

i) Extensive review of SAPCC documents constitutes the core basis of assessment of

available information, since the preparation of these documents has generally involved

a comprehensive review of available knowledge base;

ii) Review of other reports generated by government and non-government agencies,

including reviews by different State departments relevant for climate change adaptation

and mitigation efforts;

iii) Pre-consultation meetings with State nodal officers, who are designated to look after all

activities related to climate change in a particular State; and

iv) Stakeholders’ workshop notes prepared by the study team, following State-level

stakeholders’ meetings involving diverse set of State actors.

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4. Assessment of State Level Knowledge and Data Gaps

4.1 Assam

4.1.1 Present knowledge and information on climate change risks and vulnerability

The draft SAPCC for Assam draws from published literature to throw some light on climate change

risks and vulnerability as faced by the State. No State-specific climate modelling exercises have been

made so far to gauge future uncertainties emerging from changing climate, and its probable impacts

across sectors.

An analysis of Indian climate change scenario at a regional level conducted by the Indian Network for

Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) indicates that going by the time scale of 2030s with respect to

1970s, the entire north-east region is expected to witness a fall in rainfall received during winter

months between January and February. It does not however project any additional rainfall being

available to the region during the months between March to May and October to December. The

monsoon rainfall during June- August is projected as likely to increase by 5 mm in 2030s with

reference to the records of 1970s, which confirms a rise of monsoon rains by 0.6%.

The INCCA report specifies that the north-east region has experienced increase in the annual mean

maximum temperature over the past decades, at the rate of +0.11 oC per decade and annual mean

temperatures at the rate of +0.04 oC per decade. According to the report1, an increase in maximum

temperatures could be expected overall for the Indian subcontinent by 0.71 oC per 100 year. The

mean annual temperature for north-eastern region is projected to rise by 25.8 ± 0.8oC to 26.8 ±

0.9oC in 2030s. The rise in temperature with respect to the 1970s baseline period shows a range

between 1.7 to 1.8o C. The climate risks and vulnerabilities as indicated by the INCCA (2010)

underpin the facts that:

The north-eastern part of India is more prone to water induced disasters because of its

location in the eastern Himalayan periphery, fragile geo-environmental setting and

restricted economic development.

The north-east region is prone to floods and soil erosion; hence, agriculture is vulnerable to

flood impacts. Cloudbursts as commonly witnessed in the region also cause loss of life and

agriculture produce and is a cause of concern.

1Ministry of Environment and Forests. 2010. Climate Change and India: A 4X4 Assessment, A Sectoral and

Regional Analysis for 2030s, INCCA: An Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment, Government of India

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However, the broad regional level impact assessments of current and future climate change

scenarios only partially inform the vulnerability conditions for Assam. Multiple consultations with

important stakeholders in the State have led to identification of the critical gaps in knowledge, which

are acknowledged to have impeded efforts towards developing correct strategies, designing

interventions, and optimization of available choices for best results. As highlighted by the

stakeholders representing different departments in the consultation workshop, the immediate

knowledge requirements for the State relate to:

1. Increased future risk of heavy rainfall phenomenon that causes frequent floods in the State

almost every year, incurring large scales losses made to human lives and property,

2. Increased future risk of drought conditions that lead to drying up of existing wet-lands,

causing further imbalances in the State’s overall bio-diversity and water availability

situations,

3. Means to access technology and finance that will help the State better prepared for

undertaking adaptation and mitigation action, and,

4. Prioritization frameworks (inclusive of environmental conservation) that will facilitate

making correct investments across different sectors.

Thus, it is required that Assam in the next one to two years conduct scientifically robust risk

assessment studies on the impacts of changes in extreme rainfall, temperature and hydrological

responses of the river basins, and determining the range and severity of impacts on different

sectors, thereby enabling the State to choose the correct actions for climate resilient development

planning.

4.1.2 Present knowledge and information on climate change impacts

Based on recent evidence on impacts of climate change, certain priority sectors and geographic

‘hotspots’ in the State of Assam have been identified which demand urgent attention for

appropriate resilient planning and strategic implementation. Some of these are highlighted as

follows:

The agricultural sector in the State, especially for Nalbari and Dibrugarh districts, appears to

be the most vulnerable to both floods and droughts under current climate conditions, and is

likely to remain so in future climate change scenarios.

In the water sector, with respect to its availability, the districts of Kamrup, Morigaon,

Darrang show the highest vulnerability to climate risks prevailing at present; in a future

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climate change scenario, Nalbari, Dhubri and Kamrup are likely to be the most vulnerable

districts.

Forest vulnerability is high in the Nalbari district of Assam, especially when climate change

comes in as a stressor additional to the usual human-induced pressures on forests in the

form of overexploitation of forest products, poaching of animals, forest land diversion, and

so on.

During the consultations, stakeholders in Assam emphasized on generating evidence bases through

a range of pilot projects, observations and inventories. The suggested knowledge enhancing projects

span across multiple sectors related to agriculture, surface and ground water, bio-diversity, forestry,

human health, urban habitation, and so on. Some of the important suggestions on sector-specific

strategic knowledge requirements and knowledge products for implementation of climate actions in

the State are listed below:

Sector Stakeholders’ suggestions on knowledge enhancing activities

Agriculture, livestock and fisheries

Research studies, surveys and assessments Scientific assessment of climate change impacts on tea crop varieties Assessment of market potential of bio-fuel crops in the State

Water resources

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on changes in river discharge resulting from combined impact of

climatic and non-climatic factors Pilots for evidence generation Pilot-cum-demonstration projects on conservation of flood plains

Forests & biodiversity

Research studies, surveys and assessments Development of bio-diversity inventory for the State Longitudinal studies on changes in forest ecosystems observed due to

climate change Studies on specific plant species with particular focus on their changing

pattern of germination and attributes with variation observed in climate Study on mitigation and adaptation potential of bamboo plantation on river

embankments through community participation Demonstration projects for innovations Demonstration project encouraging participation of indigenous groups in

efforts for conversation of bio-diversity

Urban habitation

Research studies, surveys and assessments Study on innovative approaches for efficient management of urban waste

control of pollution, and management of water and sanitation issues – in short the roadmap to “climate smart” cities in the State

Model plans for integrated city development, specifically for Guwahati and Dibrugarh

Human health Research studies, surveys and assessments Scientific assessment of human health impacts in connection to climate

change risks

Energy Research studies, surveys and assessments Study on opportunities for expanding/deepening energy access in the State

through renewable energy based off-grid and decentralized energy systems

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and smart-grids

Infrastructure

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on environmental feasibility and climate resilience of certain

infrastructure projects Pilots for evidence generation Pilot-cum-demonstration projects on making tourism infrastructure in

national parks climate proof Pilot project on climate resilient value chains for non-timber forest produce

Natural disasters Research studies, surveys and assessments Multi-hazard risk mapping studies involving both statistical GIS based

modelling and dynamic high resolution regional climate modelling

4.1.3 Existing institutional capacity and on-going project/programme level activities:

potential for useful engagement for CCIP initiatives

Government departments

1. The Assam Science Technology and Environment Council (ASTEC) can act as a nodal

Resource Centre for overseeing the strategic knowledge generation and dissemination

regarding climate change and the environment. The Remote Sensing Application Centre at

ASTEC can play a key role in gathering real time data. Their on-going projects such as CAPE 2

Assam, integrated studies of 20 major wetlands for fisheries development and near time

flood mapping of Assam, etc. can help in knowledge generation and database development.

The on-going Environment Information Systems (ENVIS) project at ASTEC can be linked to

knowledge management that would be required for SAPCC implementation. The Status of

Environment Report being prepared by ASTEC with study areas ranging from topography,

climate, water resources including ground water, geology, energy, health, forest and wildlife,

minerals, wetlands to culture and archaeology can act as an initial database.

2. The Soil and Land Use Survey programme under the State’s Agricultural Department can act

as a data source on the extent and spread of soil erosion in Assam.

3. The mission points of the Irrigation Department aims at introduction of high yielding crop

varieties to increase the agricultural production of the State. With the INCCA report

predicting a fall in yield of crops owing to climate change in the north-east region, such R&D

initiatives by the Irrigation Department may be converted into pilot projects that will help in

building the required knowledge.

2 Crop Acreage and Production Estimation

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4. Geo-spatial mapping being carried out by the Assam State Disaster Management Authority

(ASDMA) can help the State government in developing decision support systems for guiding

decision making.

Universities, research centres and technical institutions

5. To strengthen the science-policy interface in the State, building field based partnerships with

institutes like the Jorhat based Rain Forest Research Institute (RFRI) has been suggested.

The Institute delivers need based technological support towards conservation, protection,

restoration and management of forest resources through a network of Van Vigyan Kendras

(VVKs) in the North Eastern States including Sikkim.

6. IIT-Guwahati is reported to be carrying out preliminary studies on impact of climate change

on water resources of Brahmaputra basin.

The above discussion brings out an illustrative depiction of present understanding that exist at the

State level in regard to assessment of climate change risks and uncertainties for different sectors. It

also specifies ideas on initiatives that can generate knowledge on observed impacts of climate

change, as have been put forwarded by the key stakeholders from Assam. It would be important for

the CCIP to take advantage of some of the on-going programmes and projects in the State for

building up the strategic knowledge base.

4.2 Bihar


Similar to the majority of States in India, the State of Bihar possesses only a limited information and

knowledge base on present and future climate change risks and vulnerabilities. An important source

is the EU-supported HighNoon Research Project3 under which a regional climate modelling exercise

was conducted for the entire Gangetic belt to capture future uncertainties for the region. The

Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections from the High Noon Project, which may be taken as

applying to Bihar, point to -

Gradual widespread warming over northern India

Expected increase in temperatures in the Ganges basin by an average of about 2°C to

4°C by 2100, being more pronounced over mountainous areas

3 http://www.eu-highnoon.org/

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Likely exacerbation in drought conditions by 2050 as a result of higher temperatures and

fewer rainy days

Likely increase in high intensity precipitation events in the Ganges basin

Decline in yields of existing varieties of both rice and wheat, with greater reductions in

upstream regions

High flood risks for the upstream regions

Besides this study, a recent assessment by Gosain et al (2011)4 predicts a significant increase in

sediment load in the majority of Ganga sub-basins, which would lead to further adverse impacts on

river-flood condition for Bihar.

Consultations made with researchers from the Central University of Bihar established the availability

of RCM projections made at 50X50 resolution for Bihar. The data made available through automated

weather stations are being used to conduct impact assessment studies in agriculture and water

sectors. On the practice side, as reported by government representatives of the Agriculture

Department, a weather alert system has been launched in the State recently, which is capable of

providing two days advance forecast on weather parameters to farmers.


According to the stakeholders from the State government who were consulted, initiatives have

already been taken to build evidence on climate change impacts for different sectors. As 60%

districts are flood prone and 40% districts are drought prone in Bihar, the emphasis was on the need

to have impact assessments of climate change on new varieties of seeds/crops, by utilizing local

weather information sourced from automated weather stations5. A key knowledge need, as pointed

out by the stakeholders, is risk perceptions of particular communities and social groups regarding

future climate change impacts, which is important for understanding community awareness and

preparedness on climate change. The priority sectors and geographical ‘hotspots’ identified for the

State include the following:

Districts located in southern Bihar, with medium to high sensitivity to observed climate

change (though most of the southern districts show medium sensitivity to climate

change, yet they are highly vulnerable to climate change as a result of low adaptive

capacity)

4Gosain AK, Rao S and Arora A. 2011.Climate change impact assessment of water resources of India, Current

Science, VOL. 101( 3), AUGUST 2011 5 As informed by representative from Department of Agriculture in the stakeholders’ workshop conducted at

Patna.

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Agriculture, since it engages about 81% of the population as the primary production

system

Urban infrastructure related to water supply, sewage disposal, and sanitation

The consultations carried out under the present scoping study highlighted the need for further

policies/programmes, research-based initiatives for creating data inventories that would contribute

to evidence building on climate change impacts. The key suggestions in this regard include the

following:


Agriculture, livestock & fisheries

Research studies, surveys and assessments Survey on live-stock productivity, accompanied by study for determining

reasons for reduced litter size, confirmatory research on hybrid species, exploring opportunities for engagement with SHGs for controlled environmental in situ production in dairy farming.

Inventory of coping strategies linked to livestock management like changes in shelter, feed and fodder, etc.

Water resources

Research studies, surveys and assessments Baseline study and model simulations of likely impacts of future climate

change Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project to develop a database on water resources in forest areas,

which will require (a) Collection of necessary data on hydro-geological domain (b) Assessment of basin-wise surface water availability in present/future climate scenarios including water quality, and (c) Inventory of wetlands/lakes.

Urban habitation

Research studies, surveys and assessments Study to develop model CDPs (city development plans), which promotes

deployment of renewable energy technology, green buildings, low carbon mobility planning, rainwater harvesting and climate resilient urban infrastructure.

Study on regional sub-urban planning or agglomeration planning that may look into aspects of landscape planning, transportation (mass transit system), and energy efficient infrastructure amongst other things

Human health

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on the impacts of climate change on human health, that should

include a component of natural disasters related impacts Cross-sector studies that identify the linkages of health to climate change,

indoor air pollution, water quality and sanitation

Energy Research studies, surveys and assessments Baseline study and model simulations of likely impacts of future climate

change

Natural disasters

Research studies, surveys and assessments Inventory of local traditional knowledge regarding early warning and coping

methods in case of floods Demonstration projects for innovations Formulation and mock drills of standard operating procedures (SOPs) for

flood risk management with local community involvement and use of

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traditional knowledge

Mass communication

Research studies, surveys and assessments Study to identify best practices and learning from other regions for mass

communication on climate change and for inducing behavioural change through audio visual media (like short films)




1. A major portion of the State falls in the Gangetic basin, which is prone to flooding. With

climate change likely to increase the occurrence of floods, the role to be played by the

Water Resources Department is enormous. Additionally the Water Resources Department is

entrusted with the Command Area Development and Water Management Programme which

broadly covers the areas of soil conservation, land consolidation and development of

underground water. The Water Resources Department also plays a key role in Major and

Medium Irrigation Sector, which is equally important in the wake of increased drought risks.

All of this calls for the development of integrated data management systems.

2. Bihar Agricultural Management & Extension Training Institute (BAMETI) can serve as a

repository of ideas and develop information, knowledge products, regional communication

and documentation services etc. on climate change and agriculture. Programmes like the

“Kisan Pathshala”, a massive farmer training programme, and “Kisan Vikash Shibir”, a

programme for interaction between agricultural scientists and farmers - these might prove

to be helpful in knowledge and technology transfer for improving climate resilience of the

agriculture sector.

3. The work of National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA) in terms of improving facilities

like sewerage and solid waste management along 21 towns along the river Ganga must be

ramped up to cover more places to help keep in check the menace of vector-borne diseases

whose incidence rate is set to see a rise in the wake of climate change. In fact, the NGRBA

gives a good example of building institution-level focus on strategic knowledge generation

and management. Along with a Ganga Knowledge Centre, the NGRBA suggests formulating

City-level Citizen Monitoring Committees and Forums for carrying out social audits of the

River Ganga.

4. Bihar Renewable Energy Development Agency (BREDA) can act as a co-ordinating agency

for the targets mentioned in the energy sector. BREDA with the support from the Ministry

for New and Renewable Energy has on-going projects that deal with energy efficient building

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and biogas production, which can be the basis for creating a project database to collate

experiences from the ground.

5. The activities of the Science and Technology Department, Government of Bihar can help in

the data inventorization in aspects relating to survey, gauging forest resources and also in

flood forecasting. Such initiatives can help bridge knowledge gaps.


6. The State Department of Environment and Forests has developed a close collaboration with

the Department of Environmental Sciences in the Central University of Bihar, and this has

given rise to multiple knowledge-linked initiatives to assess climate change impacts in the

agriculture and water sectors. The expertise in climate modelling available within the State

provides an enabling environment for carrying out important vulnerability assessment

studies.

7. A number of research initiatives by Rajendra Agricultural University (RAU) and Bihar

Agriculture University (BAU) are underway to assess impacts of climate change risks on

agriculture.

The description of current understanding on climate change risks for Bihar, and the status of climate

change impacts assessments on different sectors recognizes a large knowledge gap that exists at

present. The key stakeholders from the State could usefully demarcate certain thematic ideas where

further initiatives for evidence building would be necessary. Taking the benefit of on-going

initiatives, CCIP is expected to come out with strategies in collaboration with the Government of

Bihar, for making the State resilient against climate change risks and uncertainties.

4.3 Chhattisgarh


The State recognizes that its several existing vulnerabilities (ecological, economic, social and cultural)

are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, if not addressed adequately and holistically in a short

timeframe. The SAPCC identifies certain sectoral vulnerabilities as currently understood. However,

the State would require information from specific vulnerability assessment studies, contextualized

for the State. Some of the observations and projections on climate change risks, as are noted

through recent studies, point to the following:

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Decrease in rainfall in some districts, which is assumed to have linkage with the

phenomenon of climate change.

A study by Gupta (20026) indicates that the frequency and magnitude of droughts in the

State will witness a rise in many districts; water scarcity hence would pose a challenge

for the State, affecting other sectors as well.

Forests and biodiversity in Chhattisgarh are expected to be seriously impacted by future

climate change; there is sufficient anecdotal evidence to highlight this as a major risk for

the State.

There is an urgent need for comprehensive vulnerability assessments to future climate change risks

for the State, covering possible impacts on each of the priority sectors identified in the SAPCC. The

geographical hotspots identified for such assessment studies include (a) drought prone districts and

blocks identified in the SAPCC, and (b) parts of the central areas of the State and the northern regions

which are most vulnerable as a result of low adaptive capacity. As emphasized during the State

stakeholders’ consultation workshop, more robust evidence on climate change risks and vulnerability

would be required, which would help in sensitizing the policy makers in the State.

The gaps in knowledge of climate change impacts need to be filled with technically correct and well-

validated assessment exercises taken at the State level that may include modelling of future climatic

scenarios, State-specific vulnerability analyses across sectors given priority under the SAPCC, and

systematic documentation of community perceptions on climate change and its impacts across the

State and various sectors.


The SAPCC highlights the vulnerability of priority sectors to climate change risks, which unless

addressed timely and adequately, are likely to be exacerbated with climate uncertainty. A major

concern for agriculture sector arises from lack of strong information base for a weather forecast

system in the State. Vulnerability to uncertain rains received by the State is reflected in overall low

agricultural productivity, including that for rice cultivation in central part of Chhattisgarh, which is

regarded as the rice bowl of the State. Similar concerns are emerging for forestry and biodiversity,

where loss of forest species is being observed, along with increased incidence of forest fires. The

water resources in the State have been receiving reduced amount of rains in the recent past and

present indicators point towards growing water scarcity. Other sectors i.e., urban infrastructure,

human health, industry & mining, and energy are expected to get affected by increased climate

6 S. Gupta, Water Policy for Drought Proofing Chhattisgarh, 2002

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uncertainty. Hence, assessment of sector impacts of climate change risks is identified as a critical

need for informed decision making and implementation of appropriately prioritized interventions

identified in the SAPCC. Stakeholders participating in the State workshop came up with multiple

suggestions on further research, inventory building, pilot interventions and initiatives that would

help the State gain more insights about sectoral impacts of changing climate parameters. These

include-



Research studies, surveys and assessments Research on new crop varieties that will promote climate resilience in farm

systems in the State Studies on the adaptation and mitigation potential of agro-forestry (there

is a State Agro Forestry Plan) Study on mitigation potential in the animal husbandry sector

Demonstration projects for innovations Cross-department and cross-sector project (Forest – Agriculture – Animal

Husbandry) on conversion of degraded forest areas to sustainably managed grazing lands

Forests and biodiversity

Research studies, surveys and assessments Baseline assessments of habitat fragmentation (especially due to mining) Taxonomy studies to assess local level flora and fauna involving local

experts, which would tremendously help preparing biodiversity inventory. A Folklore Taxonomy Project in this direction is already underway in the State.

Baseline inventory creation would be particularly important. Certain baseline inventories are being created for the State already, such as vegetation carbon pool assessment, using ground sampling and satellite remote sensing data.

Severe impacts of climate change are already being observed in case of NTFPs (non-timber forest products); shift in species distribution across regions and extinction of species at local level is already being observed. Scientific studies need to be conducted to determine the scale and severity of such impacts.

Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project on REDD+ for the State, especially with a focus on primitive

tribal groups

Water resources

Research studies, surveys and assessments Wetlands in the State need attention, since encroachment of water bodies

is a big problem and it will require maintaining of baseline inventories. Various conservation technologies have relevance to Chhattisgarh; these

need to be linked with proper geological studies in the State. The State has also developed a Draft State Water Resources Policy in 2012,

which aims at developing water resources in drought affected and rain shadow areas and to ensure water management efficiency among many other objectives. A policy review can be done to incorporate cross-sector emphasis on data generation and knowledge management for integrated management of water resources in the State.

Urban habitation Research studies, surveys and assessments

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Study on incentives for lifestyle change Study on incentives for promotion of eco-friendly vehicles and low carbon

mobility support in Naya Raipur

Energy

Research studies, surveys and assessments Baseline assessment of energy resources in the State (especially bioenergy

resources) and vulnerability to future climate change Demonstration projects for innovations Model solar and wind villages

Industry Demonstration projects for innovations Mostly metallurgical industries in the State, so waste heat recovery

projects can be identified and incentivized for getting carbon credits




1. The Chhattisgarh Council on Science and Technology can play a major role towards

knowledge building. Their on-going projects on Crop Acreage and Production Estimation and

Groundwater Conservation can help in both knowledge and capacity building.

2. The State Forest Department is digitizing all forests areas/divisions in the State and also

carrying out GIS mapping which can help the Department itself while carrying out future

assessments. Detailed survey of flora and fauna happening under CAMPA by BSI and ZSI (3

year project covering all districts), which will lead to publication of database on species in

the State.

3. With renewable energy power generation being a priority under the State Industrial policy,

the Chhattisgarh Renewable Energy Development Authority (CREDA) can assume the role

of a resource centre by developing a project database.


4. During the consultations, it was informed to the study team that a list of key resource

persons in the State has been prepared who would an asset for further action on the SAPCC.

These resource persons belong to both the government and non-government organizations,

some hailing from local academic institutions such as the Indira Gandhi National

Agricultural Institute in Raipur.

It is important to take note of the existing willingness demonstrated by the State government in

Chhattisgarh, while planning for further strategies under the CCIP. There is a potential for political

17

leadership, and with support from CCIP the State can emerge as one of the model SAPCC

implementation States.

4.4 Odisha


Odisha is most vulnerable to floods and heavy rainfall. A conservative analysis of the impacts of

natural disasters indicates that between 1963 and 1999, Orissa experienced 13 major disasters,

killing thousands of people and incurring huge losses to property. An average of 900,000 ha of

agricultural production is lost every year due to disasters. In such a State, it would be more than

essential to put a robust weather forecasting system in place for making timely forecasts on weather

uncertainties and extremes. Present vulnerability assessments of the State, as cited in the SAPCC

and other studies, indicate:-

Moderate to highest level of vulnerability. (TERI 2003)

The State is most vulnerable to floods and heavy rainfall. (Based on statistics from IMD)

Drought is also quite frequent in many regions of the State.

Temperature stress and erratic precipitation are likely to affect the agricultural sector.

Salt water intrusion, storm surges and coastal flooding shall affect the coastal zones and

fishing.

Due to climate change the availability of freshwater in the State is likely to be affected

thereby making the communities more vulnerable to waterborne diseases.

In Orissa, the months between June to September are critical in terms of heightened food

insecurity situations among the rural population, especially in tribal dominated districts.

Currently, there are no modelling studies on future climatic projections for the State. There exists

only a limited set of assessment studies that inquire into impacts of climate change on specific

sectors.


The SAPCC identifies priority information and knowledge needs for combating with climate change

impacts, particularly for:

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Specific districts e.g., Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur and Malkangiri where

more than half of the population is tribal; climate change risks faced by the local

communities with low adaptive capacity make these areas a ‘hotspot’.

The western and south-western parts of the State are drought prone regions, requiring

serious attention for identification of resilient strategies.

The SAPCC document highlights climate change impact assessment needs for agriculture sector

which is exposed to multiple challenges posed by changing climate. These include challenges in

cultivation of paddy crops in coastal areas which is prone to frequent soil erosion, salt intrusion and

coastal inundation. Overall agriculture sector in Odisha is vulnerable to erratic precipitation,

temperature stress and reduced soil moisture, along with problems such as pest and disease

outbreaks, which are likely to increase due to climate variability. The State is prone to frequent

disasters and its coastal line is vulnerable to recurrent cyclones, which has led to a crippling effect on

the economy, and resulted in gravely adverse consequences for its population, marine life and

promising economic sectors like fishing. Overall rise in ocean temperature is apprehended to result

in shifting of habitation of marine lives, which would prove a strong blow for the marine bio-diversity

and fishing activities in the State. The limited coverage of mangroves along the coastline has already

weakened the natural resistance to coastal cyclones. On health, there is rising incidence of sudden

heat waves resulting in loss of many lives due to heat strokes in specific districts in Odisha.

The workshop with key stakeholders of the State identified multiple activities that could potentially

raise the State’s knowledge about climate change impacts. Most importantly, it was emphasized that

in spite of certain sectoral successes gained at individual projects level, it will be important to build

cross-sector convergent initiatives. More and more visibility is required for climate change actions

among academia, policymakers and government agencies – for this appropriate communication and

dissemination material would be required as knowledge products. It is also important for the State to

be able to develop systems for integration of data for water, mining, etc sectors, which is possible

with GIS and remote sensing data. The sector-specific activities suggested in the consultation

workshop are listed below:


Agriculture, livestock & fisheries

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies to identify appropriate livelihood related adaptation strategies for

vulnerable groups living in fragile ecosystems, viz, fishing community dependent on lake Chilika, forest-dependent tribal people from Kalahandi, etc.

Water resources Research studies, surveys and assessments River basin level assessments of future water availability under different

19

climate scenarios


Research studies, surveys and assessments The State will need to know changes in the forest cover over the last few

decades, and need to develop capacity for assessing its relationship with temperature and rainfall pattern changes. The State needs to be able to integrate data/information sources and to build evidence accordingly.

Urban habitation Research studies, surveys and assessments Assessment of heat-islands phenomenon using remote sensing data and

GIS technology

Human health Research studies, surveys and assessments Epidemiology-based assessments across regions in the State for diseases

such as dengue, chickengunia, and other vector borne diseases

Energy

Research studies, surveys and assessments Inventory of GHG emissions for specific sectors

Pilots for evidence generation Pilot-cum-demonstration projects on livelihood generation for remotely

located communities through renewable energy based off-grid systems

Natural disasters

Research studies, surveys and assessments Study to identify lessons learnt during crisis situations arising out of natural

disasters Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project to generate natural disasters-related statistics




1. The proposed Odisha Climate Change Agency is expected to act as a nodal agency for

knowledge dissemination on all issues relating to climate change; for this an appropriate

knowledge management system (KMS) in the area of climate change would need to be

developed. Meanwhile a list of experts drawn from different organizations within the State

has been prepared by the Climate Change Cell in the nodal Environment Department.

2. A number of departments are launching new initiatives for strengthening evidences base,

efficient logistic mechanism and raising human resource potential. An example is the

Department of Water Resources that has established a hydrometry wing for effective

collection, validation and management of data at the departmental level. It has started

collecting data from different sources such as SRC, CWC, IMD and other stakeholder

departments, for conducting robust river basin level studies.

3. The Orissa Renewable Energy Development Agency (OREDA) is mandated to increase the

capacity for generation of solar and wind based power in the State. The experience and

expertise available in OREDA will be an important resource for SAPCC implementation.

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4. The Odisha State Disaster Management Agency (OSDMA) is doing a lot of commendable

work in generating decision support tools for disaster management – it has the potential to

be build up as a resource centre for other States as well.

5. The Adaptive Research Stations under the Agriculture Department can play a role in

generating scientific knowledge on new crop varieties and farm practices that are more

resilient to local climate.


6. The Orissa University for Agriculture and Technology (OUAT) can act as nodal agency,

dealing with knowledge dissemination relating to the agricultural sector.

7. The Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI), Cuttack has many ongoing research projects that

may be relevant in the wake of climate change and its apprehended impacts on crop yields.

8. Research being carried out at the Water and Land Management Institute (WALMI), Cuttack

in the areas of water resources management and Integrated Watershed Management are

very helpful for the State as the vulnerability assessment for the State predicts an increase in

drought conditions owing to climate change.

9. The School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences at IIT Bhubaneswar is expected to emerge

as a major resource centre as the institute grows in the near future.

Odisha shows tremendous potential for making the State planning and development pathways

resilient to climate risks and uncertainties. Willingness and preparedness across different

departments are worth noting, and could very well be capitalized on for newer initiatives planned

with the support of CCIP. The State demonstrates some degree of preparedness and sensitization

among key stakeholders, but varyingly across different departments. The SAPCC plan document has

attained approval of the MoEF in 2011 and some of the strategies are already being carried out in

the State.

4.5 Kerala


The State of Kerala is prone to multiple hazards like floods, storm surges, cyclone related torrential

downpours, occasional droughts, sunstrokes – with evidence of higher intensity in recent times -

21

along with increase in the sea level. India’s Second National Communication to UNFCCC identifies

the parts of the Konkan coast and south Kerala as the most vulnerable stretches. Analysis by the

Indian Meteorological Department on rainfall data of the State indicates declining trends of annual

rainfall and southwest monsoon during last 60 years. This decrease is largely in south Kerala

particularly in the hill areas. Increased surface temperature and flooding due to sea level rise are

anticipated in future. According to the Kerala SAPCC, it is projected that if the sea level rises by 0.5

meter, 212 sq. km of wetland may be lost and the coastal region would be inundated. It is also

anticipated that average temperature in the region bordering Kerala, especially the mean surface

temperature in Western Ghat regions may rise by 1 – 5 degrees Celsius.

Consultations with key stakeholders in the State brought out the emphasis on the need for

enhancing knowledge base on the recent shifting trend of rainfall as is being experienced by the

State, coupled with incidences of sudden extreme events. Some of the recent initiatives undertaken

by the State, such as, scientific research on high-tide, changing climatic pattern, creation of

awareness about climate change issues, in collaboration with academic institutes available within

the State, are expected to help in collating important information related to climate change. This will

require further enhanced efforts and technical capacity building among State officials. However, in

general the absence of State-specific scientific or modelling studies on climate change and its impacts

is recognized to have restricted building effective adaptation strategies and a comprehensive

adaptation policy framework for the State.


The State has high economic dependence on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, fisheries,

forest, water resources and health, which makes the State highly vulnerable to climate change. In

agriculture, climate change is apprehended to affect the crop maturity period hence affecting the

paddy productivity drastically; this is a major impact for Kerala where rice is the stable food. In

fisheries, loss of species has been noticed over the recent period, and the SAPCC mentions ten

species of freshwater fish as most threatened to climate change. Nearly about 300 rare endangered

plant species or threatened species have been identified for the entire Western Ghats ecology, of

which nearly 159 are native to Kerala. The State has been witnessing unprecedented upsurge in

vector-borne diseases since 1996, much of which is said to have a linkage with climate change

attributes. The geographical ‘hotspots’ identified for the State that demand urgent attention are:

1. The major climate change hotspots in Kerala as identified using a composite index are -

Alappuzha, Palaghat and hilly districts of Wayanad and Idukki. These regions show

22

considerable weakness in adaptive capacity and have higher sensitivity as well as exposure

to climate change risks..

2. Four districts that are categorized having high vulnerability to climate change, are located in

the hilly region i.e. Idukki, Wayanad, the southern district of Thiruvananthapuram, and the

northern district of Kannur.

Stakeholders gave a high emphasis to sectoral impact assessment of climate change risks. Some of

the priority needs identified in this regard include: studies on cash crops, specifically, rubber, coffee,

pepper, spices and coconut; studies on mitigation effect of practices related low carbon emission

i.e., waste disposal mechanisms, extensive use of solar vehicles, and so on. Stakeholders also came

up with a list of suggested initiatives that can feed into the process of climate change knowledge

building for the State, and these are presented below.


Agriculture Research studies, surveys and assessments Study on impact of end-of-season drought on important species for the

State such as coconut, rubber, coffee, pepper and other spices


Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on pollution abatement and mitigation potential of plantations,

social forestry and adaptation potential of shelterbelts along the coast Study on opportunities for emerging REDD plus mechanism Studies on economic opportunities for the State from forest products such

as, Bamboo

Urban habitation

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on innovative technology, practices and institutional mechanisms

for sustainable waste management in Kerala’s cities Pilot projects/studies on highway planning, inland waterways, sustainable

urban transportation including mass transport system, pedestrian friendly transport, and comprehensive mobility plans

Human health Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on the impacts of climate change on vector borne diseases,

airborne diseases and water quality and sanitation associated diseases

Energy

Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project on electric vehicles/ LNG driven water transport in the

backwaters Pilot projects on low carbon technology application in storage and

transport activities of the fisheries sector Demonstration projects for innovations Demonstration project for carbon neutral campus of Secretariat and other

major govt. buildings

.

23


potential for useful engagement in CCIP initiatives

Government departments/agencies

1. The data generated from the Hydrology project of the Kerala State Groundwater

Department can be an important resource.

2. The resources of the Agency for Non-conventional Energy and Rural Technology (ANERT),

which is already playing a role in knowledge dissemination of non-conventional energy

sources, can be used by the Fisheries Department to employ renewable energy based drying

and processing (SAPCC ranks this as a high priority task). ANERT can act as the coordinating

agency for all the tasks that have been mentioned in Energy Sector, Section 3 of the SAPCC.

3. The Kerala State Remote Sensing and Environment Centre (KSREC) can help in building data

relating to land use land cover changes, inventorization of natural wetlands and irrigation

potential of projects, all of which are ongoing research projects at KSREC.

4. The services of the Centre for Water Resources Development and Management (CWRDM)

can also be put to use for watershed development and agriculture-water development, crop

water management. The SAPCC ranks “identification of regions vulnerable to water

availability” as a high priority task, which can be carried out by CWRDM.

5. The Coconut Development Board (CDB), Kochi can help support the coconut cultivators in

increasing their yield in the wake of climate change.


6. The expertise of IIM-Kozhikode in Project Management can be utilized by ANERT, Energy

Management Centre (EMC) and the Power Department for solar deployment across the

state. The work of Energy Management Centre (EMC) in energy conservation and small-

hydro promotion can be used by the state extensively.

7. The Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI), Kochi can help bridge the gap in

knowledge pertaining to impacts of climate change on coastal marine environment and

fisheries. The XIth Plan in-house research projects at CMFRI are in line with this. The State

Fisheries Resource Management Society (FIRMA) can coordinate with CMFRI over relevant

knowledge transfer that is required for planning and development of fisheries.

8. The Central Institute of Fisheries Nautical and Engineering Training (CIFNET) can help

educate fishermen in the wake of climate change and its impact on fishing productivity.

9. The Nansen Environmental Research Centre (India) can help in knowledge dissemination in

areas such as: impacts of climate change on monsoon and coastal zone management.

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10. The role that Kerala Agricultural University can play is immense. Research on new and

better adapted crop varieties will help the farmers and also ensure food security in a

changing climate. Kerala Agricultural University can also act as a resource centre in climate

change adaptation research.

11. The role of Kerala Agricultural University in tackling the risks of climate change can be

augmented by Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT). The research activities

it carries out in Monsoon Meteorology, Crop-Weather modelling and Land-Sea interaction

can help fill in knowledge voids in these areas.

12. The research being carried out at Central Plantation Crops Research Institute (CPCRI) can

benefit niche areas such as developing climate change resilient crops.

13. The on-going projects at the National Centre for Earth Science Studies (NCESS) can help

utilized for scientific knowledge building. The organization can also be a coordinating agency

in scientific knowledge dissemination across the state.

14. The activities at Jawaharlal Nehru Tropical Botanic Garden and Research Institute

(JNTBGRI) can help conserve critically endangered flora which might be more vulnerable to

climate change.

The State will require initial handholding for designing and implementation of newer initiatives that

enhance current level of knowledge on climate change risks and impacts. Much of a help would be

to keep the newly launched7 Climate Institute in focus, while planning and implementation of

strategies under CCIP initiative.

4.6 Maharashtra


The Government of Maharashtra has taken a pioneering step towards formulating the Maharashtra

State Adaptation Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAAPCC) by commissioning a comprehensive

vulnerability assessment study which included the task of generating model-based climate

projections specific to the State’s geography. The Government of Maharashtra appointed The Energy

and Resources Institute (TERI) in 2010 to carry out a study titled “Assessing Climate Change

Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra”, which broadly aims to “address the urgent

need to integrate climate change concerns into the State’s overall development strategy, thus

7 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Kerala-to-setup-study-and-

research-centre-on-climate-change/articleshow/36830604.cms

25

assisting in building long term climate resilience and enabling adaptation to the likelihood of risks

arising from climate change”. The study outputs have been used to formulate the Maharashtra State

Adaptation Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAAPCC).

For the modelling component, TERI entered into a partnership with the UK Met Office in 2010 to

assist in the development of climate projections for the State as a unit. Using the high resolution

HadRM3P model in the PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System and a unique domain selection

method that sought to represent the climatic pattern over the State’s topography to a fairly good

degree, changes in temperature and rainfall have been projected at a resolution of 25 km x 25 km.

These projections relate to three future time slices during the 21st century – 2030s, 2050s, and

2070s, with respect to the model baseline, which is the average climate during 1970-2000. The

model results have been validated using several observational datasets including those of the India

Meteorological Department (IMD).

An important component of the study is the development of a Macro Level Vulnerability Index

(MLVI), which identifies the most vulnerable districts in the State. The MLVI comprise of 19

indicators under the categories of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to assess the

vulnerabilities of the districts. A ranking exercise has been undertaken for the districts on the basis

of the vulnerability index, which ranks Nandurbar as the most vulnerable district, followed by Dhule

and Buldhana. To validate and ground-truth the climate sensitivity, exposure levels, and adaptive

capacity of communities to climate change and extremes, six vulnerability hotspots were selected

for in-depth case studies and local-scale consultations. In addition, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region

was selected for a detailed case study due to its economic and demographic significance for the

state. These case studies represent the range of climatic zones, socio-economic diversity, and

administrative divisions in Maharashtra.


The above mentioned study includes sector-specific assessment of climate change impacts for the

following priority sectors: (a) Hydrology & fresh water resources; (b) Agriculture & food systems ; (c)

Coastal areas marine ecosystem and biodiversity; and (d) Livelihood (including migration and

conflict). Additionally, there are cross-cutting areas that include issues related to human health,

ecosystem and biodiversity, markets, and risk management.

26

Under the study, sea level rise analysis has been done for the Maharashtra coastline. Historical

analysis of 100-year tide gauge data8 and 17-year satellite data has been used for this purpose. To

identify areas in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which are prone to flooding when exposed to heavy

rainfall events, flood maps have been generated for different rainfall events. These maps simulate

the rainflow and water level variations, using satellite imagery and rainfall data. These maps have

been validated using the observed data sets from the disaster management reports of the Municipal

Corporation of Greater Mumbai.

Climate change is projected to reduce the availability of water in Maharashtra’s rivers – Tapi,

Narmada, Godavari, and Krishna (Gosain et al 2006). While River Tapi is projected to experience

constant water scarcities, Rivers Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular

water stressed conditions, and River Godavari is projected to experience water shortages in few

locations. While rivers Tapi and Narmada irrigate most of North Maharashtra, Krishna and Godavari

irrigate most of the central and eastern Maharashtra.

The World Bank (2008) study using the Integrated Modeling System (IMS) finds that the following

changes may occur across the Godavari basin: (a) an increase in precipitation of about 36% (to

approximately 840 mm) in the A2 scenario and 24% (to about 770 mm) in the B2 scenario; (b) an

increase in annual maximum temperatures, on average of 3.8C in A2 and 2.4C in B2; and (c) rainfall

is found to become more variable but the variation will be very similar in B2 compared to A2; the

higher rainfall is expected to increase runoff by 12.5% in B2 and by 13.5% in A2.

The frequency of droughts is projected to increase in future through changes in the hydrological

cycle viz. precipitation, evapo-transpiration (ET), soil moisture etc. ET being the major component of

hydrological cycle will affect crop water requirement, future planning & management of water

resources. A study on sensitivity of ET to global warming for arid regions, has projected an increase

of 14.8% in total ET demand with increase in temperature. It is also concluded that marginal increase

in ET demand due to global warming would have a larger impact on the resource-poor, fragile arid

zone ecosystem that constitutes a bulk of Maharashtra.

The biggest challenges for agriculture in Maharashtra are to increase productivity and protect farmer

livelihoods in a scenario of climate change, over-extraction of groundwater, and soil degradation.

Most studies on the impact of climate change on agriculture come to the same conclusion that

climate change will reduce crop yield in the tropical area. Rice and sugarcane, two of the principle

crops of Maharashtra are highly water intensive and climate sensitive. Changes in water availability

8 From the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level of the National Oceanographic Center (NOC) and the

National Environmental Research Council (NERC)

27

along with 18 increase in temperature could have profound effect on the productivity of these two

crops. A World Bank Study (2008) estimated that the productivity of sugarcane could go down by

30%.

Maharashtra has a prominent position on the horticultural map of India with more than 15 lakh

hectares are under different fruit crops. The state has a 14.5 percent share in the country's fruit

production and ranks first amongst all the states; and contributes 27 per cent in area and 21.5 per

cent in production (Planning Commission, 2007). Any changes in temperature and precipitation can

adversely impact the fruit production in the state, thereby endangering the livelihoods of those

dependent on horticulture activities. It is estimated that as much as 30 - 35 % of fruit and vegetable

production is lost on account of lack of adequate post-harvest infrastructure in the state.

Maharashtra ranks fifth in marine fish production in India. While the role of the small-scale fisheries

sector in Maharashtra has declined, the development of alternative livelihoods has been slow. As a

result, poverty in coastal fishing communities is a serious problem. The percentage of the population

living under the poverty line in the coastal rural blocks of Thane district, Sindhudurg district and

Ratnagiri district is as high as 52, 43 and 37 percent. The impact of climate change will further act as

an additional stressor to the existing challenges in the fisheries sector. In Maharashtra, it is reported

that sea surface temperatures have increased both at the surface and even more at the bottom. Also

extreme precipitation events have been on an increase that has had catastrophic effects on fish-

drying operations. Recent work by CMFRI in Maharashtra indicates that some 75 coastal villages are

vulnerable to inundation due to a projected 1m rise in sea level, expected to happen over 20-50

years. All these combination of impacts make the livelihoods dependent on fisheries highly

vulnerable to the current and future impacts of climate change.

Precipitation and temperature have been two important climatic parameters which have been

decisive in determining the trends in the forest ecosystems. Various modelling studies have depicted

possible changes in these two parameters which would result into possible changes in the species

compositions, Net primary Productivity (NPP) of the ecosystems and so on. According to the

modeling results presented in INCCA report (2007), 18% forested grids in the Western Ghats are

projected to be vulnerable to vegetation change due to climate change by 2035. Also, the region is

projected to have approximately 20% increase in NPP on an average by 2035. An assessment by

Chaturvedi et al (2011) identifies the northern and central parts of the Western Ghats to be

vulnerable to climate change. The analysis suggests that Western Ghats, though a bio-diversity

hotspot, has significant extent of fragmented forests in its northern parts. This makes these forests

additionally vulnerable to climate change as well as to increased risk of fire and pest attack.

28

Changes in precipitation are likely to impact distribution patterns and growth of mangroves.

Decreased rainfall and increased evaporation will result in an increase in salinity, a decrease in net

primary productivity, growth and seedling survival, change competition between mangrove species,

decrease diversity, and decrease mangrove area by changing upper tidal zones to hyper saline flats.

Climate change may adversely impact human health by increasing the risk of exposure to vector,

water and food-borne diseases, aggravating malnutrition and increasing injuries and deaths from

extreme rainfall events and thermal stresses. Currently 2% of the total reported malarial cases in

India are from Maharashtra. Presently, the transmission window (based on minimum required

conditions for ensuing malaria transmission) is open for 12 months in the State of Maharashtra. In

the recent INCCA report (GoI, 2008) a district-wise map of India was generated to show the

distribution of different categories of transmission windows under baseline and in A1B emission

scenario of year 2030s. The assessment for the Western Ghats zone, which covered 6 districts of

Maharashtra, showed that here the transmission windows are open for 10-12 months and continue

to do so in the 2030s when transmission windows are determined on the basis of temperature only.

When transmission windows are determined in combination of temperature and relative humidity,

50% of the districts under assessment show an increase in open months of transmission windows

from 4-6 moths to 6-7 months. These findings are nevertheless subject to a number of uncertainties

related mainly to the presence of various environmental and socio-economic factors, other than

climate, which influence the transmission of the disease.

In case of Maharashtra, the TERI team has been frequently interacting with government officials and

other stakeholders over the past four years for preparing the State Adaptation Action Plan9. During

the course of these interactions there have been several important suggestions to enhance the

strategic knowledge base with respect to climate change and its impacts; some of the key

suggestions with a relevance to the objectives of the CCIP are listed below.



Research studies, surveys and assessments Scientific assessment of impacts of climate change on important

horticulture crops in the State The INCCA report brings to attention the fact that a lack of simulation

9 Awareness Workshop on ‘Assessing Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation strategies’ for

the State of Maharashtra, Mumbai, June 2010; Workshop on Climate Change, Mumbai, February 2011; Conference on “Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture”, Mumbai, April 2011; Conference on “Climate Variability and Cash Crops of Maharashtra”, Thane, January 2013; State level Brainstorming Session on “Development of Urban Wetlands of Maharashtra: Needs, Gaps and Way Forward”, Mumbai, February 2013

29

models in the fisheries sector has made it impossible to evaluate the 2030 scenario on fisheries.10 Current information on impacts of climate change on the sector comes from the analysis of past data and its interpretation in relation to changes in weather and sea-surface temperatures in those periods.

Pilots for evidence generation In a pilot project, Tata Consultancy Services has developed a mobile-based

platform for disease forecasting and advisory services. It connects farmers with agricultural experts who can study photos of crop diseases and recommend suitable measures. This pilot project demonstrates the potential scope for private enterprise. Expand the pilot to more regions and more crops to gain experience and demonstrate benefits to farmers.

Demonstration projects for innovations Weather Based Crop Insurance Schemes (WBCIS) are being implemented in

the state in collaboration with ICICI-Lombard, IFFCO-TOKIO, M.S Cholamandalam General Insurance Companies, besides Agricultural Insurance Corporation. Under the CCIP, the experience from this initiative can be assessed and a demonstration project launched to up-scale/out-scale

Water resources

Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies to assess (cost-benefit analysis) the potential of retaining riparian

buffer zones in the surface run off management and conservation of wetlands (ecosystem based adaptation)

Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project to carry out geospatial mapping and modelling groundwater

flows to understand seasonality and demand trends. (Nationwide dynamic groundwater resources assessment was last done in 2004. While the Groundwater Information System exists in Maharashtra, the data needs to be updated.)


Research studies, surveys and assessments Study to assess the impact of temperature rise and sea level rise on

mangroves. Pilots for evidence generation Establish a digital GIS database of mangroves, salt marshes, salt flats, and

coastal plains, and establish mangrove monitoring programmes to observe changes in forest structure, leaf production, morphology, growth and senescence, reproductive capacity and phenology, microbial and meiofaunal communities, and intertidal and aquatic fauna

Urban habitation

Research studies, surveys and assessments Study to assess the feasibility of flood insurance in case of Mumbai Study to assess the impact of increase in rainfall intensity on flooding in

major cities in Maharahstra. This will require the development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships using historical data.

Study to estimate the adequacy of stormwater drain infrastructure to deal with more frequent or more intense floods.

Human health Research studies, surveys and assessments Studies on the regional pattern of different climate-sensitive diseases and

disease outbreaks (such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, diarrhea,

10 INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment. Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment. A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, November 2010

30

cholera, heat stress etc.) by undertaking regular analysis of data, at district and sub-district level. This can also include identification of trigger events (climatic and non-climatic factors) that influence the infection-transmission-spread of climate sensitive diseases

Studies to assess regional vulnerability (spatially & temporally) with respect to changes in the climate to identify areas, population groups and diseases that may be impacted more significantly.

Pilots for evidence generation Pilot project to develop and maintain a decentralized digital health

database, especially for climate-sensitive diseases such as vector-borne diseases, water borne diseases, heat stress related illnesses, nutrition related disorders, direct and indirect health effects from extreme events such as floods (injury, death, psychological problems) etc.




1. Maharashtra State has an e-governance policy, 2011 and the following initiatives have recently

won medals at the National Awards on E-Governance: (a) Crop Pest Surveillance and Advisory

Project, Commissionerate of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture; (b) e-Disaster

Management Cell, Collector Office, Gadchiroli; (c) Geo-informatics in Implementation of Forest

Rights Act, 2006 in Maharashtra, Tribal Research and Training Institute, Tribal Development

Department. These initiatives, related to agriculture extension, disaster management, urban

management, and community forest management, can be meaningfully harnessed in the

implementation of the MSAPCC.

2. The Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) uses the Data Warehousing approach

for 24 desks at Mantralaya and 33 districts covering complete state. All key services for reporting

by District offices are rendered via MAHANET website for Water Supply and Sanitation

Department. This system helps in timely receipt of periodic reports from district office to aid in

monitoring of the progress of various schemes.

3. Other key data repositories in the government domain are the Groundwater Survey and

Development Agency (GSDA), State Bureau of Health Intelligence and Vital Statistics, Mumbai

Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (MMRDA), and the Maharashtra Remote

Application Centre (MRSAC).


4. There are several national level scientific and technical organizations in Maharashtra that are

important data and knowledge repositories. These are the India Meteorological Department at

31

Pune, the National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSS&LUP) at Nagpur, the

National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) at Nagpur, and the Indian

Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) at Nagpur.

5. Similarly, the State is well endowed with a number of reputed academic organizations that

include IIT-Mumbai, the University of Pune, the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) at

Mumbai, the Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS), the International Institute of Population

Sciences (IIPS) at Mumbai, the Central Institute on Fisheries Education (CIFE) at Mumbai, the

National Insurance Academy at Pune, Mumbai University, and the Indira Gandhi Institute of

Development Research (IGIDR) at Mumbai. There are four State Agricultural Universities

(Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth, Dr.Balasaheb Sawant Konkan Krishi Vidyapeeth,

Dr.Panjabrao Deshmukh Krishi Vidyapeeth, Marathwada Agricultural University) and and two

Colleges of Agriculture (College of Agriculture, Pune, College of Agriculture, Sonai, Ahmednagar)

as well.

5. Sector-specific knowledge products required for SAPCC implementation

A sector-wise identification of key knowledge products for effective implementation of SAPCCs is

presented in the table below. The list is based on stakeholders’ inputs during consultations, needs as

identified in the SAPCCs as well as in published literature. This is only illustrative to emphasize the

magnitude of knowledge generation efforts that is required.

Sector Sub-sector

Key knowledge products for effective SAPCC implementation

Water resources

Surface water resources

Precipitation maps, Inventories of water-sheds and physiographical maps, Model generated runoff and soil erosion projections/simulations, Sub-basin scale water budgets, Database and analytics of water quality parameters, Cross-sector impact indicators, Basin scale integrated management plans

Ground water resources

Aquifer maps and water budgets, Database and analytics of groundwater quality parameters

Ecosystems Forestry Forest Resource Accounts, Forest Volume and Species Distribution Maps, Land-cover & Land-use maps, Cross-sector impact indicators

Wetlands Inventory of wetlands, Ecosystem Accounts, Cross-sector impact indicators

Marine Bathymetric maps, Assessment of Ocean Acidification, Ecosystem Accounts

Bio-diversity Bio-diversity inventories, Species level impact indicators, Cross-sector impact indicators

Agriculture Projections on changes in crop productivity and yields due to climate change, Impact indicators at crop, farm and food system levels, Livelihood impact indicators, Cross-sector impact indicators, Surveillance based maps on pest incidence, Inventory of local farm practices

32

Animal Husbandry

Livestock Analytics based on livestock census, Inventory of management practices, Surveillance based maps on disease incidence, Species level impact indicators, Cross-sector impact indicators

Fisheries Habitat maps, Stock and flow accounts, Inventory of Fishing Fleets, Model simulations of ecosystem dynamics

Disaster Management

Floods Flood maps (for cities, villages and river basins), Model simulations of urban storm water runoff & drainage, Hydrological projections for peak-flows, (Hazard Risks and Vulnerability Atlas from Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority -GSDMA, could be referred for management of six-different varieties of natural hazards)

Droughts Drought maps, Inventory of local coping practices

Human Health Surveillance based maps of incidence of vector borne diseases, Projections of changes in transmission windows for vector borne diseases, Urban heat island maps, Community specific impact indicators for disease incidence, and malnutrition (women, children, vulnerable populations)

Urban development

Demand projections for urban services, Hazard maps for urban infrastructure, Inventory of sustainable technology and practices with information about comparative techno-economic feasibility (mitigation and adaptation cost curves for feasible technology and practices), City scale emission inventories

Energy RE resource maps, Resource specific impact indicators, Cross sector impact indicators, Hazard maps for energy infrastructure

Industry Inventory of low carbon technology, Marginal abatement cost curves for feasible technology, Hazard maps for supply chains and value creation systems

6. Strategic knowledge requirements for SAPCC-defined mitigation actions in

the States

The States could aim to synergize State-specific mitigation actions with national developmental

priorities and tap on potential economic opportunities. The strategic knowledge requirements

common to all six States in this regard are as follows:

1. At present not many States have inventoried their GHG emissions. Only Odisha has

commissioned a carbon footprint study for the entire State. An emissions inventory would

cover all sectors such as energy, industry, forestry, agriculture and waste and this knowledge

will be helpful to keep track of, and identify ways to reduce emissions. GHG accounting and

an inventorization program that is based on standard practices has been identified as a key

first step in the draft Assam SAPCC.

2. The sectoral inventories will also be helpful in the management of GHG emissions. Each

State could formulate its own GHG management strategy to curb GHG emissions. State-

specific mitigation cost curves will be a useful decision support tool.

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3. Renewable energy potential varies in each State. While some States have high solar

potential others have huge wind potential. The Odisha SAPCC, for instance, gives emphasis

to tapping the unrealized potential of renewable energy, particularly biomass and solar

energy in the State. Chhattisgarh’s SAPCC document aims at identifying the feasibility for gas

based and other alternative source power plants; significant measures of promotion of

renewable energy through CREDA has been indicated in the SAPCC. The Kerala SAPCC

indicates the promotion of solar and wind energy as key strategies towards addressing

energy security and mitigation of climate change. Therefore, detailed techno-economic

resource assessments for each State are required to optimally harness its RE potential.

4. With economic growth and development in each State, new industrial clusters and

residential clusters are being developed. It is important that proper planning is done in

terms of landscape planning, utilization of renewable energy applications as applicable

amongst others and the SAPCCs have recognized this need. For example, promoting green

buildings as a mitigation strategy has been indicated in the Orissa’s SAPCC. The draft SAPCC

of Bihar mentions incentivizing GHG mitigation investments made by the industrial sector. It

also seeks to encourage captive power generation by industries using their waste, by-

products or bagasse-based cogeneration. An inventory of best practices and available

technology would be helpful for the planners.

5. The Kerala SAPCC emphasizes on promoting ecotourism, tourism sustainability and

conducting a tourism sector greenhouse gas inventory. While measures to make the tourism

sector low carbon could be promoted, States could also develop an institutional mechanism

to raise carbon finance from foreign tourists. For example: offsetting the emissions of

tourists by way of increased urban plantation could be promoted, as urban/social plantation

would not only sequester carbon but also make the landscape more attractive. This requires

study on appropriate fiscal instruments for mobilizing financial resources within the State.

6. Waste could be used as a resource and also to curb emissions as identified, for example, in

the Kerala SAPCC. Some of the options to reduce emissions from this sector include secure

landfills, composting plants, and waste to energy projects. Again, detailed techno-economic

assessments would be required to guide the decision-makers.

7. A database/ repository of key academic institutions and key experts on mitigation studies

will be helpful to the States.

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7. Typology of knowledge and data bases: Pre-requisites for evidence based

decision making

Based on the earlier discussions in this report, a synthesis of sub-national knowledge and data needs

is attempted here using a typology that may help structure the design of initiatives under the CCIP. A

comprehensive knowledge base would include not only past trends and future projections on

climate change parameters11 along with their impacts on socio-ecological systems, but would also

demand useful ‘experiential learning’ from projects/programme implementation to explore options

available for dealing with climate uncertainties. Hence ‘lessons learnt’ from past projects and

programmes is included in the typology of databases given below:

1. Climate data sets: that account for time series data on climate parameters

2. Natural resource stock & flow accounts: satellite environmental accounting of bio-diversity,

wetlands, forestry, etc., for understanding changes that takes place in stocks and flows.

3. Database on impacts: assessment in terms of bio-physical and socio-economic attributes of

climate change impacts, involving number of priority sectors

4. Emission inventories: on GHG emissions, necessary as important baseline statistics

5. Adaptation and mitigation project database: on people, projects, technology, resource

persons, to be used as ready references

6. Sources and mechanisms on financing: once developed and updated on a regular basis

would help State governments exploring opportunities for financing of climate resilient

strategies

7. Compendium of best practices and case-studies: on efficient technology use, farm

practices, institutional arrangements, etc., that gives opportunities to understand what

contributes to socio-economic transformation and also act to as useful benchmarks

The suggested typology of database would gain from their co-existence and would ultimately help in

building strategies for appropriate decision making. The schematic below depicts the synergy-

11

There is long list of climate change parameters that includes temperature (mean, maximum and minimum), amount of rainfall, number of days of rainfall, relative humidity, rate of evaporation, solar radiation, number of sunshine hours, and so on; national-level projections cited in the SAPCCs are mostly in terms of mean surface temperature and rainfall.

35

8. A strategy for data & knowledge generation, and dissemination of

information

The State level strategies for data and knowledge generation and dissemination of information on

climate change risks and vulnerabilities, impacts, adaptation and resilience, essentially need to

follow a multipronged approach. The key strategic components are specified here:

1. Creation of data infrastructure to record observations is an essential pre-requisite for

knowledge generation. In most States there is already a process to install automated

weather stations (AWS) to augment the meteorological observations network. In

Maharashtra, for example, the Watershed Organisation Trust's (WOTR) Climate Change

Adaptation project is being implemented with the help of India Meteorological Department

(IMD), in which 51 automated weather stations installed in Akole and Sangamner blocks in

Ahmednagar district provide data to generate agro-advisories specific to crop and

geographical location for farmers to access through mobile text messages or wall displays12.

Similarly, in Bihar the data made available through automated weather stations are being

12

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/maharashtra-farmers-get-climate-smart-with-hi-tech-weather-alerts-113112500496_1.html

Climate Statistics

GHG inventories

Natural Resource Accounting

Database on Impact Assessment

Data base on Adapation and Mitigation

Copendium of best practices and case studies

Validation of

project

based

information

Building

opportunities

for testing of

association

Database on financing

source and mechanism

Important information support for initiatives

Observation Data base Project Data base

36

used in a weather alert system, which is capable of providing two days advance forecast on

local weather parameters to farmers.

2. Once automated weather stations are in place, standardized protocols for data collection

would need to be followed in the operations. Data collection processes would need to be

standardized in terms of periodicity of data collection, scale, and range of parameters,

allowing comparative analysis across States based on these data sets.

3. The skills for collection and recording of climate parameters would need to be

strengthened among technicians. Onsite monitoring using GPS would help improve

credibility of collected information, which can be linked with GIS platforms.

4. CCIP can possibly provide technical assistance to the States in order to come up with

important white papers, guidelines, protocols and formats, for multiple activities related to

collection of climate and environmental statistics, up-gradation of technical skills among

technicians, data storage and data sharing, and similar important activities, which will have

tremendous effect on collection of high quality data, collation of information, while

transferring them into knowledge base.

5. It will be important to create data platforms or interfaces between researchers and

accessible resources. Once collected, data will required to be used by multiple stakeholders

groups involving government agencies, researchers, non-government entities etc. It is hence

important to put up a useful system in place that facilitates access to data sets13,14.

6. An enormous amount of effort needs to be directed into facilitation of research capacities

within the States, and developing knowledge networks involving universities and research

centres. Capacity enhancement workshops would be required to be conducted in the States,

on a regular basis, that provide technical knowledge on assessment tools and techniques for

inventorization, economic analysis, environmental impact assessment, etc.

7. The States would require having diverse set of knowledge products for effective

communication on climate change risks and vulnerabilities, considering large heterogeneity

in target audience. This may involve production of – case studies, policy briefs, research

papers, communication products made in vernacular languages. All possible target

audiences would be required to be served by effective communication materials, based on

analysis of data/ information related to climate change and relevant to the State context.

13

A good example of web-based open access database is the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) (http://cait2.wri.org/wri/) 14

Another example of collaborative scientific research using open access database is CORDEX: A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/cordex/)

37

8. Range of knowledge dissemination strategies need to be developed, both involving formal

(i.e., involvement of mass media, school or colleges through study modules, debate &

discussions, etc) and informal channels (i.e., street plays, folks songs, folk drama etc),

considering diversity of targeted audiences. Involvement of universities, local non-

government organization will be important in the process.

9. Building right kind of knowledge partnerships between the State institutions and

institutions of global repute can be promoted, by facilitating visit of researchers from

outside. On the other hands, officials across departments could be taken on exposure visits

for gaining experiential learning and hands-on training on cutting-age technologies on key

advancements i.e., drip-irrigation, organic farming, climate resilient farming techniques,

green building etc. Hence, partnerships with industry, and knowledge based organizations

within and outside the country would prove to be beneficial.

Under the aegis of CCIP, appropriate facilitation could be planned for building suggested

strategies for information generation, knowledge formation, dissemination and communication

on climate change risks and vulnerabilities, and suitable adaptation strategies.

***

Documents

Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP) · Climate Change Innovation Programme (CCIP) Scoping Studies on State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) ... in the recent past applies