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Climate Change in the Kawarthas March 2014 Part 1 . Nature in the Kawarthas is changing . The climate is warming: 2010 – 2014 – 40 out of 48 months warmer than 1971 – 2000 average (83%) Changes in dates of events in nature (e.g., leaf out) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate Change in the Kawarthas
March 2014Part 1
Nature in the Kawarthas is changing
The climate is warming: 2010 – 2014 – 40 out of 48 months warmer than 1971 – 2000 average (83%)Changes in dates of events in nature (e.g., leaf out)Changes in numbers and kinds of some species (e.g., opossum)More extreme events (March 2012) Tonight’s talk…• Will focus on events with likely or possible climate change connection• What we are seeing now• Extreme events of note• Concern for the future
2010 OMNR Report – Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditons for Ecoregions in Ontario Temperatures similar to s. Pennsylvania on the way
Kawarthas Kawarthas
Arrival of southern bird species
“Southern birds” have increased in number and have expanded their range northwards over recent decades
Mourning Dove – edge of Shield
Hooded Warbler
Northern Cardinal – Bancroft, Minden
Hooded Warbler – GanaraskaForest Red-bellied Woodpecker
The arrival of the Virginia Opossum Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are extending their range into the
Kawarthas
Johnston Dr. Ptbo – Feb. 2014
Gannon Narrows – December 2012
Flying squirrel hybridization • With warmer winters, Southern Flying Squirrels are moving north into the Kawarthas and some are mating with Northern Flying Squirrels, a different species
• Hybrid squirrels are becoming increasingly common
• Being explained as a possible effect of climate change
• akin to Polar Bears & Grizzlies mating ; also seen with Black-capped & Carolina chickadees
(Trent University/MNR study 2009)
Butterflies: Southerners on the march northward
Southern (Carolinian) species have expanded their range northwards over the last decade
Giant Swallowtail now common in Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme SW Ontario
Coldest winter temperature determines northern limit In years with long, hot summers, two broods of some species
Northern True Katydid (long-horned grasshopper) may be next southerner to arrive.
Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s biggest butterfly
Delaware Skipper
Northern True Katydid
Some short-distance migrants are, on average, returning earlier as spring becomes earlier
Common Merganser
American Robin
Great Blue Heron Hooded Merganser
Red-winged Blackbird
An earlier nesting season
Earlier springs are resulting in an earlier start to the nesting season for resident birds & short-distance migrants
May mean more more young
One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs up at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade Mourning Dove
An earlier spring frog chorus Spring Peeper
• Peak calling period of early breeders is now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995. Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study published in Herpetological Conservation and Biology, 2012)
Salamanders are mating earlier, too.
Chorus Frog
Earlier flowering of trees Alberta study: Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier
Red MapleCarolina Poplar
Speckled Alder
Silver Maple
Earlier spring wildflower bloom In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal
Coltsfoot
White Trillium
Hepatica
Wild Columbine
An earlier black fly emergence
Black flies are now in peak numbers in late April through early May
In the 1960s, peak numbers were not until mid- to late MayTraditionally, May 24th Weekend saw the worst black fly conditions
Earlier and more abundant tree pollen
With climate change, tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks earlier in the spring in much of North America.
Pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040.
Many people are experiencing more serious allergy symptoms .
A marked increase in invasive species
Purple Loosestrife Common Reed (Phragmites)
Dog-strangling Vine Garlic Mustard
An increase in tree disease
Butternut – canker (fungus) American Beech – beech scale (insect and fungus)
Ashes – Emerald Ash borer – milder winters may be allowing
faster expansion north