Climate Change in the AndesOverview and Evidence

www.bolivian-mountains.org

MSc Dirk HoffmannBolivian Mountain Institute - BMI

Mountain DayHighlighting the Critical Role of Mountain Ecosystems for Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Development

Durban, South Africa4 December 2011

• Foto

Presentation Overview

• The Context: Climate Scenarios and Emissions

• The Tropical Andes

• Regional Temperature Rise

• Impacts of Climate Change

• Main Points

• Conclusions

Context

International Energy Agency (IEA):

• Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history.

http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959

Temperatura global año 500 - 2100

IPCC, 2001

The 2-Degrees Target

• The Climate Convention calls for limiting global warming to levels that do not interfere dangerously with the global climate system.

Reality: This is no more possible („warming in the pipeline“) – We have failed to meet the objective of the

UNFCCC.

• Welcome to a Four-Degree-World !

The South American Andes

Source: Conservation International

Climate Change is a Reality in the Andes

• Temperature, precipitation and humidity have changed considerably over last 50 years.

• Temperature increase is now about 0.3 C per decade (Vuille et al. 2008)

• Mountain people are noticing changes.

Global Warming is not Uniform

Temperature increase over continental regions is between 1.5 to 2 times higher than global average.

Global Warming is Expected to be 1.5 – 2 Times Stronger at High Andean Elevations

Source: Bradley et al. 2006

What does that translate to?

• A global average temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 leads to a regional increase in the Altiplano and mountain ranges of about 7 – 10° C.

• For 2030 that would mean a temperature increase compared to today´s temperature of between 0.5 – 3° C.

Bolivian Mountain Institute: Bolivia + 4. Escenarios Socio-Políticos en un Ambiente Global con 4° C, unpublished, 2011

Impacts

• (High) Andean ecosystems are very sensitive to climatic changes

• Andean mountain societes are very vulnerable (subsistence farming, herding, poverty)

Attributing Climate Change Impacts

• Difficult, due to lack of data and studies.

• Signs of (natural) climate variability, human intervention and climate change often work together in combination.

• As scientists, we must be extremely careful and honest aboutour data.

What are the consequences for Andean glaciers?

Glacier retreat in the Tropical Andes - 1• The accelerated melting of glaciers -

commenced in the 80s.

• There was around 2,500 km² of glaciated areain the 80s. (According to the World Glacier Monitoring Service -WGMS)

• Tropical glaciers: Peru 70%Bolivia 20%Ecuador & Columbia 4%Rest of the world 1%.

Glacier Retreat Across the Tropical Andes

-1600

-1400

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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antizana 15Aantizana15byanamareybroggipastoruriuruashrajuCajapZongo (area)Charquini-S (area)Chacaltaya (area)

Edson Ramírez, Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología (IHH)

rapid retreat of mountain glaciers

is the most visible sign of global warming

Canary in the coal mine - 1

Direct visual impact

March 2007 October 2009

Laguna Moro Kholla, Cordillera Real, Bolivia

Photos: Hoffmann

Huayna Potosí Summit, Bolivia, 6.088m

August 2003 October 2009

The Example of Chacaltaya Glacier

Left: ski competition in the 70sRight: Chacaltaya Glacier, 2005

Glacier retreat in the Tropical Andes - 2

New research from the Cordillera Real in Bolivia shows: 50 % reduction in surface area and

volume over the last 35 years.(Soruco et al., 2009)

This means a water surplus in glacial watersheds in the short term – but an abrupt water decline thereafter.

Water - Hydrological Cycle

Water and Andean Cities• Lima, Peru• Quito, Ecuador

• La Paz / El Alto, Bolivia: 10-15% (A. Soruco, E. Ramírez)

what is happening with glaciers worldwide is probably also

happening – silently and largely invisible to the

majority of the people –to the ecosystems around the world

Canary in the coal mine - 2

Andean Biodiversity & Protected Areas

Bofedales (Andean Peat Bogs)

New Dangers in Mountain Regions

• GLOFs – Glacial Lake Outburst Floods• Slope instability due to thawing permafrost• Avalanches, rock slides

Impacts on: - mountain people

- infrastructure

- mountaineering & tourism

The Keara GLOF incident (Bolivia), November 2009

Photos: Martín Apaza Ticona

Main Points

• There are very few detailed studies of climate change impacts in the Tropical Andes.

• Upland – lowland linkages are still poorly studied.

• Most existing studies for the region work with outdated emissions scenarios.

• There are still very many limitations to regional climate models.

Conclusions

• The main tasks for the Andes are adaptation measures and strengthening the resilience of its ecosystems and societies.

• In view of continuing uncertainties, scientists other than climatologists should start working with future scenarios.

• We need North-South as well as South-South research alliances in order to better understand the possible impacts of climate change and its interactions with other factors to orient adaptation measures.

One example:The Andes – Himalayan Imja Lake Expedition

Nepal, September 2011

Conclusiones continuing...

• It is crucial to face up to the realities of a global warming much higher than 2 degrees Celsius.

• Politicians and policy makers need to act now, because of the vulnerability of mountain regions and the strong inertia of the climate system.

• Human livelihoodsin mountains shouldbe put at the centerof attention.

Thank you for your attention!

Contact:

dirk.hoffmann@bolivian-mountains.

Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña - BMI