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1Trevor Murdock
5 November 2018Making the Links ConferenceKelowna, BC
Climate Change in BC
What Can We Expect?
Pollev.com/climatepcic543
climatepcic543
37607
Responding with Poll Everywhere
Text votingWeb voting
Nutrition Facts Serving Size 1 presentation
Amount Per Serving
Slides 20 Minutes 20
% Daily Value*
Maps 4 200%
Plots 4 80%
Photos 5 20%
Cartoons 0 0%
Humour 5% ?
* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of the first day of a two-day conference
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
December 2nd 2005 • 6°C snowing in ______ • 19°C sunny in ______
Climate: long term statistics of weather
Weather: conditions at a specific location & time
Victoria Montreal
• Weather: conditions at a specific location and time – December 2nd 2005
• 6°C snowing in Victoria • 19°C sunny in Montreal
• Climate: long term statistics of weather – 1971-2000 average December
Climate: Long Term Statistics of Weather
Past Minor reductions (RCP8.5) Paris commitments (RCP4.5) Paris goal (RCP2.6)
Future Warming in BC
a) Albert Einstein b) Mark Twain c) Winston Churchill d) George Bernard Shaw e) Niels Bohr f) Will Rogers g) Enrico Fermi h) Yogi Berra i) Dan Quayle j) Woody Allen k) Confucius
“Prediction is hard, especially about the future”
More frequent and more intense wet days
Wettest day of the year
Decreased snowpack
April 1 snowpack
Fraser River at Hope
Statistical emulation of streamflow projections from a distributed hydrological model: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections for British Columbia Water Resources ResearchVolume 50, Issue 11, pages 8907-8926, 19 NOV 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015279 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014WR015279/full#wrcr21222-fig-0010
Future streamflow: Peace River @ Taylor
Higher in winter
Lower and earlier peak
Lower in summer
Increased hot days
Days above 25°C
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
• “Climate is not static” • “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are
expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future” • “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and
operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”
17
Agree or disagree?Where are these quotes from?
BC Building Code 2012• “Climate is not static”
• “Past and ongoing… greenhouse gas emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future”
• “… buildings will need to be designed, maintained, and operated to adequately withstand ever changing climate loads.”
• “The analysis generally assumes that the past climate will be representative of the future climate”
18
Unm
et C
oolin
g H
ours
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
Past Past (updated) 2020s 2050s 2080s
Steo 2 Step 3 Step 4
EUI (
kWhr
/m2)
0
13
25
38
50
Past 2020s 2050s 2080s
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
Energy Use Unmet Cooling Hours
Source: UBC (Campus and Community Planning) with RDH Building Science
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
• Make use of available climate information
• Consider a range of future projections
• Practice cross-disciplinary engagement
• Iteration, iteration, iteration
Best Practices
Increasing Mitigation
Incr
easi
ng A
dapt
atio
n
Cohen and Waddell, 2008 / Harford, 2018 / LePage 2018
Maladaptation Low Carbon Resilience
Unsustainability
Code Minimum
New Vulnerabilities
High AFUE
Existing Bldgs
PH w/ Fossil Fuel PH
Net Zero
Net Carbon
N-C + Future Climate
All Electric All Electric Clean Grid
PIEVC
Adaptation and Mitigation – Discussion
Online adaptation tools webinarhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxj-3gPkDW4
• Plan2Adapt • Regional Analysis Tool • ClimateBC / ClimateWNA / HectaresBC / BC Climate Explorer • PCIC data portals
– BC station data – High-resolution PRISM climatology – Statistically downscaled climate scenarios – VIC hydrological model output (gridded) – Station hydrological model output
• Seasonal maps
27
PCIC* climate tools for BC
28
Primary*audiences
Ease of use Flexibility Type of output
Plan2Adapt Planners Decision-makers Consultants
Easy Low Summary tableMaps Possible impacts
Regional Analysis Tool Impacts researchersEngineers
Difficult ! Medium
High MapsPlots Regional analysis
PCIC data portals Impacts researchersHydrologists Consultants
Medium Medium Data
Seasonal maps Managers Easy Low Maps
ClimateBC ClimateWNA HectaresBCDatabasin
ForestersEcologists Impacts researchers
Medium High Data Maps
BC Climate Explorer Foresters, general Easy Medium MapsPlots
PCIC* climate tools for BC
• Educational/background • CBC podcast mini series • Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS): Climate Insights 101 • What if climate change is real? – Katherine Hayhoe Ted Talk
• Adaptation guidance • PICS adaptation in buildings infographic • Infrastructure Canada Climate Lens • BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Technical Circular • EGBC guidance document • Climate / engineering language primer • National guidebook on climate scenarios
More resources
• Climate Projections Reports released by regional districts • Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District • Climate Projections for the Capital Region • Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver
• Climate Projections for Whistler • City of Vancouver Climate Impacts Summary
• Webinar: Three important factors for adaptation: location, location, location https://goo.gl/cVWJZ1
And even more resources
2015 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/2015_Year_in_Review-Final.pdf
2016 https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2016/bc-track-set-new-temperature-record-2016 and https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2017/climate-variability-hot-cold-winter-%E2%80%9916-%E2%80%9817
2017 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/PCIC_Update_Mar_2018.pdf
2015 / 2016 /2017 weather events, seasons
