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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS
FOR HYDRAULICS AND
HYDROLOGY ENGINEERS
IWHR’s Global Forum, September 6, 2010
Nobuyuki Tamai
President, International Association for Hydro-
Environment Engineering and Research
Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo
Honorary Professor, China Institute of Water Resources
and Hydropower Research
Trend of Global
Warming
All differences are relative
to corresponding
averages for the period
1961-1990. Smoothed
curves represent decadal
averaged values while
circles show yearly values.
The shaded areas are the
uncertainty intervals
estimated form
comprehensive analysis of
known uncertainties (a
and b) and from the time
series (c) (IPCC, 2007)
Impacts of Floods, Typhoons & Cyclones
Number of People Affected by Floods
(annual average, 1980-2000)
Number of People Affected by Typhoons
& Cyclones (annual average,1980-2000)
Water Related Natural Disaster and
the Death Tolls
Regional Distribution
of Floods, 1990-2001
The death toll classified by
income level, 1975-2001
Local Torrential Downpours
Annual Occurrence of Torrential Downpours Higher Than 80mm/hr (average
occurrence per 1,000 observation points)
(Data: Meteorological Agency of Japan, 2009)
Average
1987 to 1997,
11.5 times
Average 1976
to 1986,
9.9 times
Average 1998
to 2008, 18.5
times
Sea level rise
Increase in the frequency of high water events in
Venice between 1926 and 2005 (number of
events equal to and higher than 110cm)
Data: Venice Water Authority Concessionary (2007)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
1986-1996
1996-2005
Venice and
its lagoon
051208, Yomiuri online
IAHR 2007
Consorzio Venezia Nuova
Venice, The MOSE sytem to
regulate tides in the lagoon
Mobile Barriers and complementary measures (Consorzio Venezia Nuova)
Impact of Climate Change on Flood Risk
The design precipitation in on-going projects was
enlarged in the range of predicted ratios, and the
annual probability of exceedence was calculated.
In flood protection schemes we must estimate
safety level of the target of a master plan. The River
Bureau of Japanese Government performed a
country level simulation by downscaling of the GCM
and Asia Regional Climate Model.
Down-
scaling to
a Country
Model
GCM
Spatial resolution
Atmosphere: 280km
Ocean: Longitude 2.5 deg
Latitude 0.5-2 deg
Asia Regional
Climate Model
Spatial resolution
60km
Japan Regional
Climate Model
Spatial resolution
20km
Subcommittee on
Climate Change
Adaptation for Flood
Control, River Bureau
of Japan (2008)
~200km
Degradation of current projects’ flood safety by Climate Change
Rate of
increase in
precipitation
Flood safety level (annual probability of
exceedence)
Current
Climate
Conditions
Climate Conditions after 100
years (probability under
present climate conditions)
1.1 times
1/100 Comparable 1/50~1/60
1/150 Comparable 1/70~1/100
1/200 Comparable 1/100
1.2 times
1/100 Comparable 1/20~1/40
1/150 Comparable 1/40~1/80
1/200 Comparable 1/60
Subcommittee on Climate Change Adaptation for Flood Control,
River Bureau of Japan (2008)
A Framework of River Basin Management
Model for Adaptation to Climate Change
Step 1 Input Data Meteorology, Geography, Water
Quality, Urbanization, Global
Warming
Step 2 River Basin 2-D Catchment Model, 3-D
Catchment Model, Habitat
Simulation
Step 3 Output Change of Discharge, Flow
Regime, Impact on Ecosystems
Step 4 Evaluation
&
Adaptation
Technical, Economical,
Historical, Cultural Feasibility
Study
Step 5 Engineering
Practice
Design Code, Design Manuals Feed-
back
Research topics in the field of Hydro-
Environment Engineering and Research
1) Prediction techniques of climate change impacts on
hydrological cycle,
2) Climate change impacts on runoff regimes,
3) Climate change impacts on fluvial processes,
4) Impacts of variation of sediment yield on bar
formation and evolution,
5) Climatic impacts on water quality,
6) Climate change impacts on aquatic habitats and eco-
systems,
7) Climate change impacts on floods in lowlands,
8) Adaptation to climate change impacts in mega-cities,
9) Climate change impacts on coastal disasters, and
10) Climate change impacts on groundwater systems in
inland and coastal zones.
Impact of CC (Toshiharu Kojiri, Kyoto Univ.)
GeographyMeteorology
Water Quality
Eco-systems
Urbanization
Global Warming2-D catchment model
3-D catchment model
Change of Discharge
Flow Regime
O il
O il
G as
G as
N uclear N uclear
H ydro H ydro
O ther O ther
C oal/peat
C oal/peat
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1973 2007
Other includes
geothermal, solar, wind,
tidal current combustible
renewables (for example,
biomass) & waste, and
heat
Mitigation Options in Energy Production
(IAE ,2009)
Fuel Share of
Electricity
Generation
Big Increase of Renewable Energy,
Waste and Heat
A Possible Mitigation MeasureGenerated electricity by renewable energy, waste & heat is 36.7TWh
in 1973 and 514.0TWh in 2007. In 34years the generated electricity by
renewable energy, waste & heat expanded to 14 times of that in 1973.
Major cause in the difficulties to-date have been intermittent nature
of some major forms of renewable energy.
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
1973
2007
Generated Electricity in one year (TWh)
Renewable energy, waste & heat Total
Potential and Characteristics of
Marine Current Power
The turbine can be raised for
maintenance. Marine Current
Turbines Ltd., Wikipedia (UK)
There is no danger to fish because the
blades rotate quite slowly - about 20
revolutions per minute.
Research suggests marine current
turbines have the potential to be four
times more efficient than wind turbines of
a similar size.
Martin Wright, of Marine Current Turbines Ltd,
said: "We estimate that there is at least 10
gigawatts (=10M Kw) of power available from
tidal power in the UK.
"That's the same as about half of the existing
nuclear industry."
BBC NEWS, 2003 & OCEAN ENERGY & OBSERVATORIES, web.
SeaGen Project
IAHR WG on Marine Renewable Energy was established
in 2009.
The 1.2 MW SeaGen tidal current turbine has been developed
by leading tidal turbines technology developer Marine Current
Turbines Ltd. UK. Unlike wind energy, tidal flows are much
more predictable. Moreover, due to the higher density of water
compared to air, underwater turbines do not need to be as
large as wind turbines. SeaGen has been installed in Northern
Ireland’s Strangford Lough and is the world’s first commercial
tidal current turbine.
NKE Supplies Bearings for Marine
Current Turbines
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Mitigation Options in Social
InfrastructuresExamples of small scale mitigation plans are considered in the area of
ecological city planning. The topics are concerned with “Light impact way of
life”, such as, rain water harvesting, green roof, non-motorized
transport (cycling, walking), and so on. Technologies and planning are
relevant with “Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research”.
Green Roof in Auckland
Outlet for Rainwater
Rainwater Supply to Plants from a
Parking Lot in Auckland
Medium scale mitigation plans
Examples of medium scale mitigation plans are considered in the area of eco-
compatible river basin management. There are many topics related with
IAHR in river restoration, carbon cycle in a river basin, and so on.
Shibetsu River, Hokkaido, Japan
Straight channelization started in 1967.
Restoration of meanders started in
2001 at a test section.
(a)1945-54 (b)1965-74 (c) 1999
Kushiro Regional Office, Hokkaido Dept., MLIT, Japan
National scale mitigation
An example in national scale mitigation is eco-
compatible management of national
infrastructure planning.
One example is a proposal based on technical
assessment studies on heat island problems
for policy makers.
Subjects in this planning are
1) demand-side management program of water
resources, and
2) environmentally effective land-use regulation.
◎Water Balance
・Suppression of evapo-
transpiration
・Reinforcement of Surface Runoff
Ave. Annual Evapotranspiration
urban center: 300mm
rural Tama area: 800mm
◎Heat Balance
・Reinforcement of Sensible Heat
(heat transport by wind)
・Suppression of Latent Heat
(heat transport by vapor)
◎wate
r B
ala
nc
e
◎He
at
Ba
lan
ce
Urban Heat Island,
simulated results in
Tokyo Metropolitan
Area
(b)Surface Runoff
(a)Evapotranspiration
(a) Latent Heat Flux
(b) Sensible Heat Flux
motto
Think Globally, Act Locally.
Think Scientifically,
Act Professionally.
END
Thank you for your attention.