YEAR 1 PROGRESS REPORT for APN PROJECT

ARCP2010-13NMY-Bae

The following collaborators worked on this project:

Prof. Deg-Hyo Bae, Sejong University, Korea, dhbae@sejong.ac.kr

Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) Member Countries

Climate Change Impact Assessment

on the Asia-Pacific Water Resources

under GEOSS/AWCI

CClliimmaattee CChhaannggee IImmppaacctt AAsssseessssmmeenntt oonn tthhee AAssiiaa--PPaacciiffiicc

WWaatteerr RReessoouurrcceess uunnddeerr AAWWCCII//GGEEOOSSSS Project Reference Number: ARCP2010-13NMY-Bae Year 1 Progress Report

©Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

PAGE LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

1

Progress Report for Year 1 of APN Project ARCP2010-13NMY-Bae

Part One: Overview of project work and outcomes 1. Introduction and background: Asia monsoon plays an important role on global water circulation and provides substantial precipitations and water resources to the peoples living within the domain. It provides many benefits such as power generation and transportation facilities, but also causes serious flood and drought problems. Of course, there are various reasons for these water-related disasters, but the current climate change makes much more complicate and difficult to manage them. Global Earth Observation System of Systems/Asia Water Cycle Initiatives (GEOSS/AWCI) was launched for sharing hydrologic and meteorological data and for solving various water-related problems over the Asian monsoon region. As a part of GEOSS/AWCI research activities, this study aims to evaluate the climate change impact assessments on water resources over the Asia-Pacific regions joining the GEOSS/AWCI and to promote the capacity building for climate change impact assessment technology. In general, there are two approaches for the climate change impact assessments on water resources, as shown in Fig. 1. One is the analysis of past historical hydrologic and meteorological observation data to detect some climate change trends. The other is the use of GCM outputs with downscaling and hydrologic models under the future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Fig. 1 Two approaches for climate change impact assessments on water resources

For the analysis of past historical hydrologic data, Mann-Kendall statistical test and linear regression will be used to determine the significance of trends in precipitation and runoff data more than 18 countries joining GEOSS/AWCI. The Mann-Kendall test is a non-parametric test for detecting trends in time series data. The test is widely used for analyzing environmental data, including precipitation data (Partal and Kahya, 2006), streamflow data (Liu and Zheng, 2004), and water quality data (Donohue et al., 2001). This method is simple and robust and can cope with missing values and values below a detection limit. Linear regression is another simple and good approach to detect trends in monthly precipitation and discharge data. In order to interpret the significance of the results, test statistics in the form of a t-test, the ratio of slope of the linear regression to the standard error, is calculated. For the future climate and hydrologic projections over the East Asia monsoon area, we will use GCM

]

2

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

simulations with downscaling schemes and hydrologic models. The climate projections, the outputs of GCMs obtained by using the greenhouse gas emission scenarios, are used for generating Multi Model Ensemble (MME) scenarios and for evaluating the difference of the hydrometeorological variables on the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 (called 2020s, 2050s and 2080s hereafter) relative to the past 30-year reference period (1980-2010). In this study, the 13 GCM results out of 23 GCM simulations provided by IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC, http://www.ipcc-data.org/index.html) are used. The climate models and their development countries are CONS:ECHO-G (Germany/Korea), MPIM:ECHAM5 (Germany), BCCR:BCM2 (Norway), CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T47 (Canada), CNRM:CM3 (France) CSIRO:MK3 (Australia), GFDL:CM2 (USA), GFDL:CM2_1 (USA), INM:CM3 (Russia), IPSL:CM4 (France), NIES:MICRO3_2_MED (Japan), MRI:CGCM2_3_2 (Japan) and ULMO:HADCM3 (UK). The used greenhouse emission scenarios are B1, A1B and A2. Their projected CO2 densities in 2100 will be 550 ppm in B1, 720 ppm in A1B and 830 ppm in A2 scenario. Direct use of GCM outputs to the basin-scale hydrologic model may cause some bias, because the general spatial resolution of GCM simulation output is over 100 km. Therefore, it usually requires downscaling of GCM for the surface hydrologic applications. Two categories of climatic downscaling, namely, dynamic and statistical approaches, are commonly employed. Dynamic downscaling approach has been used to develop regional climate models (RCMs) to attain a horizontal resolution on the order of tens of kilometres over selected areas of interest. In statistical downscaling approaches, regional-scale atmospheric predictor variables (such as area-averages of precipitation and temperature) and circulation characteristics (such as mean sea level pressure or vorticity) are related to station-scale meteorological series (Jiang et al., 2007). We will select either one of the approaches that would be reasonable to this study purpose, depending on data and model availabilities. The hydrologic models that can be considered in this study are several conceptual rainfall-runoff models such as PRMS (Leavesley et al. 1983), SWAT (Arnold et al., 1993) and VIC (Liang and Lettenmaier, 1994), etc. After dividing the study area into multiple subareas having relatively homogeneous hydrologic response unit, these models are applied to simulate all the components of hydrologic cycle and calculated total discharges at the drainage basin outlet from the summation of sub-grid discharges. The use of several different hydrologic models quantifies the uncertainty caused by hydrologic model structures. The reasons for the necessity of this activity are: although several countries have developed their own methods for this impact assessment and provided local hydrologic impacts of climate change, their results include high uncertainties due to the inconsistent methodologies used and lack of model calibration/verification. From these reasons, sharing the common method and observation/simulation data for both climatology and hydrology is very important for climate change impact assessment on water resources including flood/drought over the Asia-Pacific regions. In line with these project objectives, we will work with both approaches, namely, past historical observation data analysis for the first year and future simulations of climate change impacts on water resources for the second year. 2. Participating countries: Bangladesh (Ashfakul Islam, Ministry of Defense), Bhutan (Karma Chophel, Hydro-Met Services), Cambodia (Long Saravuth, Department of Hydrology and River Works), India (Rakesh Kumar, National Institute of Hydrology), Indonesia (M. Syahril Badri Kusuma, Institute of Technology Bandung), Japan (Toshio Koike, University of Tokyo), Korea (Deg-Hyo Bae, Sejong University), Laos (Chanthachith Amphaychith, Lao National Mekong Committee), Malaysia (Mohd Zaki Mat Amin, National Hydraulic Rsearch Institute), Mongolia (Gombo Davaa, Institute of Meteorology and

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

3

Hydrology), Myanmar (Tin Ngwe, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology), Nepal (Shiv Sharma, Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention), Pakistan (Bashir Ahmad, National Agriculture Research Center), Philippines (Flaviana Hilario, Phil. Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration – PAGASA), Sri Lanka (S. B. Weerakoon, University of Peradeniya), Thailand (Thada Sukhapunaphan, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives), Uzbekistan (Sergey Myagkov, Uzhydromet), Vietnam (Tinh Dang Ngoc, National Center for Hydrometeorological Foreasting) 3. Objectives: The objectives of this study are to evaluate the climate change impact assessments on water resources over the Asia-Pacific regions joining the Asian Water Cycle Initiative for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS/AWCI) and to promote the capacity building for climate change impact assessment technology. 4. Funding received for 2010/11: < USD 42,000 > 5. Outcomes and products against original proposal objectives: Since this project started, the meeting of climate change working group (CCWG) of Asia Water Cycle Initiatives (AWCI) has been held in Tokyo on 5 – 6 October 2010, as part of The 7th International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting of GEOSS/AWCI. Through this meeting, the outline of project including background and objectives, methodology and expected outcomes was discussed. At the time of the meeting, all of the AWCI country representatives were asked to nominate a suitable river basin, for which sufficient data records would be available allowing for developing a hydrological model for that basin and for accomplishing the objectives of the project as mentioned above. In cooperation with Prof. Toshio Koike of the University of Tokyo, Japan, leader of the Project ARCP2010-10NMY-Koike, a simple proposal template was developed for the AWCI country representatives to provide basic information of a suitable candidate river basin and also nominate a leader of such study. So far, 18 river basins in 16 of the AWCI member countries have been nominated for the study, some of the countries have already submitted the basic set of necessary in-situ data. Data from other basins are expected to be submitted by 20 February 2011 and a basic database for the Project use will be prepared by 10 March 2010. Opening of the database to a wider community will be subject of further negotiation but perhaps cannot be expected before the end of this Project, i.e. before the end of 2012. As a preliminary study of the 1st year task for this project, we performed past historical data analysis in Korean basin. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall’s test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran’s I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long-term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south-western regions of the study area. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south-western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. For more details, refer to Bae et al. (2008). Once the AWCI member countries provide their past historical data, similar analysis with the case study in Korea will be performed for the rest period of Year 1.

]

4

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

Fig. 2 Study area with application basin in Korea Table. 1 Trends of seasonal and annual precipitation for five major river basins of Korea,

1968-2001.

Basin Time Linear regression Mann-Kendall test

b p β p

Han Spring -0.152 0.389 -0.519 0.603

Summer 0.149 0.401 0.282 0.778

Fall 0.046 0.797 0.163 0.870

Winter 0.135 0.446 0.593 0.553

Annual 0.104 0.559 0.430 0.667

Nakdong Spring -0.212 0.229 -0.593 0.553

Summer 0.095 0.594 0.430 0.667

Fall 0.061 0.731 -0.015 0.988

Winter -0.086 0.630 -0.682 0.495

Annual 0.002 0.991 0.074 0.941

Gum Spring -0.302 *0.083 -1.438 0.150

Summer 0.218 0.216 1.141 0.254

Fall 0.038 0.832 0.044 0.964

Winter -0.020 0.910 -0.326 0.744

Annual 0.082 0.643 0.341 0.733

Sumjin Spring -0.372 **0.030 -1.661 *0.097

Summer 0.162 0.360 0.845 0.398

Fall -0.101 0.571 -0.815 0.415

Winter -0.140 0.429 -1.289 0.197

Annual -0.066 0.711 -0.282 0.778

Youngsan Spring -0.329 *0.057 -1.705 *0.088

Summer 0.137 0.441 0.875 0.382

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

5

Basin Time Linear regression Mann-Kendall test

b p β p

Fall -0.141 0.425 -1.082 0.279

Winter -0.148 0.405 -0.623 0.533

Annual -0.085 0.634 -0.429 0.667

* significant at the 0.1 significance level; ** significant at the 0.05 significance level significant values are in bold. b = standardized coefficient of slope; p = p-value (probability of obtaining a test statistic value); β = Mann-Kendall stat

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

100

200

300

400

500

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Han River

Nakdong River

Gum River

Sumjin River

Youngsan River

Spring (Mar - May)

Downward trend

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

400

600

800

1000

1200

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Summer (Jun - Aug)

Upward trend

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

200

400

600

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Autumn (Sep - Nov)

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Winter (Dec - Feb)

Fig. 3 Trends of seasonal precipitation for five major river basins of Korea

]

6

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

As a part of the Project, a training course on downscaling techniques, hydrological modeling, and model output precipitation data bias correction method is being organized at the University of Tokyo, 11 – 12 March 2011 that will be followed by a series of AWCI related events including the Global Terrestrial Network – Hydrology (GTN-H) meeting (12 – 13 March), The Integrated Global Water Cycle Observation (IGWCO) meeting (14 – 15 March; http://watercycleforum.com/workshops.html), and the 5th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium (16 – 18 March, http://www.geoss-ap-symposium.org/index.html). All these events will include sessions focused on observation and data integration issues in the Asia Pacific region, or dedicated directly to the AWCI activities. A dedicated AWCI session during the GEOSS AP Symposium will also serve as the 1st Project workshop to assess the progress in its activities. With support of this Project and collaborative projects funded by APN (ARCP2010-10NMY-Koike and CBA2010-14NMY-Kaihotsu), the AWCI ICG members and the nominated leaders of the climate change impact assessment study in the proposed basins are invited to participate in the training course as well as the subsequent meetings. 6. Self evaluation of work performed to date: This project was kicked off in October 2011 and so far has been keeping good momentum and following the proposed schedule. It can be categorized to two tasks for the success of this project: one is the data collections for all applicable basins; the other is data analysis and modeling approaches for the climate change impact assessment on Asia-Pacific regions under AWCI framework. In cooperation with Prof. Koike’s project, we build an efficient, well coordinated, international framework of AWCI for data collections. Nevertheless, several member countries are expected to be delayed their data submissions. We expect the delayed data will be collected until the training course on 11 - 12 March 2011. For the data analysis and hydrologic modeling approaches, the project leader Prof. Bae has a good experience on this area and he will provide expertise and training in the methods for assessment of climate change impacts on water resources that will then be applied to nominated river basins for the 2nd year. References: Arnold, J.G., P.M. Allen and G. Bemhardt (1993) A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model, J. of

Hydrology (142): 47-69. Bae, D.-H, I.W. Jung and H.J. Chang (2008) Long-term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins,

Hydrological Processes (22): 2644-2656. Donohue, R., W.A. Davidson, N.E. Peters, S. Nelson and B. Jakowyna (2001) Trends in total phosphorus and

total nitrogen concentrations of tributries to the Swan-Canning Estuary, 1987-1998. Hydrological Processes 15(13): 2411-2434.

Jiang, T., Y.B. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V.P. Singh (2007) Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J. of Hydrology (336): 316-333.

Liang, X. and D.P. Lettenmaier (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. J. of Geophysical Research 99(D7): 14,415-14,428.

Leavesley, G.H., R.W. Lichty, B.M. Troutman and L.G. Saindon (1983) Precipitation-runoff modelling system, User’s manual, Water-Resources Investigations, 83-4238.

Liu, C.M. and H.X. Zheng (2004) Changes in components of the hydrological cycle in the Yellow River basin during the second half of the 20th century. Hydrological Processes 18(12): 2337-2345.

Partal, T. and E. Kahya (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes 20(9): 2011-2026

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

7

Part Two: Request for project continuation

7. Funding requested for 2011/12: <USD 42,000> 8. Budget for 2011/12 Estimated costs for the 2nd kick-off meeting in TBD location in Asia, November 2011

Round-

trip

airfare

Per Diem No. of

participants

Total

(US$) Accommodation

(3 days)

Allowance

(3 days)

Travel 7,480

Seoul - TBD loc. 700 225 115 2 2,080

Dhaka - TBD loc. 600 225 115 2 1,880

Tashkent - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Islamabad - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Thimbu - TBD loc. 900 225 115 1 1,240

Meeting facilities 1,000

Other costs 1,520

Communication 300

Coffee breaks 200

Training material 820

Consumables 200

Total (A) 10,000

Future climate change scenarios

Technical support for preparation of future climate change scenarios 3,000

Communication (teleconferences) 1,000

Total (B) 4,000

Technical support for research work

Rainfall-runoff model calibration/verification 3,000

Review the each country’s output and recalibration 2,000

Comparative analysis of each country’s output 3,000

Total (C) 8,000

]

8

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

Estimated costs for the 2nd Task Team Workshop in TBD site in Asia, March, 2012

Round-

trip

airfare

Per Diem No. of

participants

Total

(US$) Accommodation (3 days)

Allowance (3 days)

Travel 7,480

Seoul - TBD loc. 700 225 115 2 2,080

Dhaka - TBD loc. 600 225 115 2 1,880

Tashkent - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Islamabad - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Thimbu - TBD loc. 900 225 115 1 1,240

Meeting facilities 1,000

Other costs 1,520

Communication 300

Coffee breaks 200

Training material 820

Consumables 200

Total (D) 10,000

Estimated costs for the 2nd year final meeting in TBD site in Asia, September 2012

Round-

trip

airfare

Per Diem No. of

participants

Total

(US$) Accommodation

(3 days)

Allowance

(3 days)

Travel 7,480

Seoul - TBD loc. 700 225 115 2 2,080

Dhaka - TBD loc. 600 225 115 2 1,880

Tashkent - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Islamabad - TBD loc. 800 225 115 1 1,140

Thimbu - TBD loc. 900 225 115 1 1,240

Meeting facilities 1,000

Other costs 1,520

Communication 300

Coffee breaks 200

Training material 820

Consumables 200

Total (E) 10,000

A + B + C + D + E 42,000

ESTIMATED TOTAL COSTS FOR ONE YEAR (US$) 42,000

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

9

Support Leveraged:

Budget Secured from Other Sources (Cash and In-kind Contribution)

Activity Organization In-kind Cash US$

Administrative and

management support to

project ($16,000/year)

Technical support for the

research work

($ 20,000/year)

Publication activities

($3,500 for technical

report, $2,500 for scientific

manuscript)

Sejong University, Korea

(Source: Construction

Technology Innovation

programme under KICEP of

Ministry of Land Transport

and Maritime Affairs)

42,000

Methodology for climate

change impact assessment

on water resources

Sejong University Monetary equivalent not

specified

Total Not specified

Note: The meetings are held in cooperation with other two APN supported projects, in particular:

ARCP2010-10NMY-Koike and CBA2010-14NMY-Kaihotsu. All these projects contribute to the AWCI

activities and in total involve about 35 researchers, experts, and governmental representatives who

serve as the AWCI International Coordination Group members.

]

10

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

10. Definitive project targets for 2011/12

Project activities

Year 2 (2011/2012)

From October 2011 to September 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Training and set up the methodology

for climate change impact

assessments on water resources

Discuss project outlines for the

second year at the kick-off meeting at

the occasion of another GEOSS/AWCI

meeting

Meeting report drafting

Future climate change scenarios with

downscaled fine resolution covering

the Asia-Pacific experimental

watershed regions

Rainfall-runoff model

calibration/verification over all the

study regions; Application of

hydrologic model for obtaining future

climate change impact assessment on

water resources

2nd Task Team Workshop during

AWCI ICG meeting

2nd year progress report to APN

Review each country’s outputs and

recalibration

Comparative analysis of each

country’s output; Write a technical

report for the second year; Write a

scientific manuscript; Derive future

collaborative research activities

Present and discuss outputs at the

final meeting

APN project and financial reporting

Date/Venue Event Estimated No. of participants

November 2011/ TBD 2nd year kick-off meeting 20

March 2012/ TBD Task Team Workshop 20

September 2012/ TBD Final meeting 20

AR

CP

201

0-

13N

MY-

Bae

-Yea

r 1

Pro

gres

s R

epo

rt

]

11

The definitive targets of the project are to evaluate the climate change impact assessments on water resources over the Asia-Pacific regions joining the Asian Water Cycle Initiative for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS/AWCI) and to promote the capacity building for climate change impact assessment technology. For the first year, we will collect historical hydrologic and meteorological observation data over more than eighteen country regions. And then, a non-parametric Mann-Kendall’s test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly variations. For the second year, climate change projection, downscaling process and hydrologic model application are addressed. The GCM simulation outputs provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC, http://www.ipcc-data.org/index.html) are used in this study. After evaluating several statistical and dynamic downscaling schemes, we will select the most feasible method for this study objective. Also, several hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are considered for the evaluation of climate change impact assessments on water resources over the Asia-Pacific countries.