The Fourth GEOSS Asia‐Pacific SymposiumSanur Paradise Plaza Hotel and Suites, Bali, Indonesia

10‐12 March 2010

Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation in the Philippines

Flaviana HilarioClimatology and Agrometeorology Division

PAGASA/DOST

MDG-F 1656: Strengthening the Philippines’ Institutional

Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change

OverviewDonor: Government of Spain thru the MDG

Achievement Fund Thematic Window on Environment and Climate Change

Duration: 2009-2011 (3 years)

Amount: 8 Million US

Major Partners:Government of the Philippines (NEDA, DENR, DA,DOST-PAGASA, DOH, DOLE, HUDCC, HLURB, DTI, Province of Albay)

United Nations (UNDP,UNEP,FAO,HABITAT, ILO, WHO)•

Programme Summary

Supports the following Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets:

Direct:

1. MDG 1- Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger2. MDG 2- Achieve Universal Primary Education 3. MDG 3- Promote Gender Equality4. MDG 6- Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases5. MDG 7- Ensuring Environmental Sustainability

Indirect:

1. MDG 4- Reduce Child Mortality2. MDG 5- Improve Maternal Health

MDG-F for Climate ChangeProgramme Summary

This joint programme will:

1. Determine vulnerability of critical sectors of the Philippines to climate change;

2. Strengthen the country’s adaptive capacity by enhancing the planning, programming and implementation capacities of key stakeholders; and

3. Undertake five (5) adaptation demonstration projects to develop / test systems for potential upscaling and replication.

Programme Outcomes

Outcome 1: Climate risk reduction (CRR) mainstreamed into key national & selected local development plans & processes (e.g. land use/devt/investment planning & programming, EIA system)

Outputs:

a. Baseline risk scenario & CRR/adaptation monitoring system developed for priority sectors (water, agriculture, coastal,forestry,health);

b. Adaptation options for key sectors assessed,valued and prioritized; c. CRR mainstreaming guidelines adopted by key NGAs and selected LGUs

Programme Outcome 2

Outcome 2 : Enhanced national & local capacity to develop, manage & administer projects addressing climate change risks (through better & effective forecasting, improving climate dependent services, strengthening academe’s capacity to assist local authorities)

Outputs:

a. National capacity assessment b. National IEC Programme and Multimedia Materialsc. CRR capacity development programme developed and

implemented

Programme Outcome 3

Outcome 3: Coping mechanisms improved through pilot adaptation projects.

Outputs:

1. Five adaptation demonstration projects

5 cc adaptation demo projects implemented

DA/FAO Equitable Integrated Ecosystems Climate Change Adaptation in the Cordilleras  (innovative adaptation measures/  technologies for agri, water/ watershed mgmt and biodiversity conservation);

DOH/WHO Strengthening Disease Surveillance, Emergency Preparedness, and Response for Climate Change –Related Conditions in Metro Manila  and  Albay;

HUDCC/UN HABITAT Designing & Building with Nature: Showcasing a Climate Change Resilient Human Settlement in Sorsogon City (site selection, adaptation planning in coastal settlements);

5 cc adaptation demo projects implemented

DTI/DOLE/ILO Climate Resilient Farming Communities in  Agusan del Norte through Innovative Risk Transfer Mechanisms (innovative financial safety nets, to fund alternative livelihoods); 

PGA‐CIRCA/UNDP A2C2: A Local Governance Reform Model for Climate Resilient Development in the Bicol Region (capacity needs assessment/ training, crr‐enhanced land  use/ dev plans, secondary/tertiary curriculum with cc concepts)

Equitable Integrated Ecosystems Climate Change Adaptation in the Cordilleras

Strengthening Disease Surveillance, emergency Preparedness, and Response for Climate Change-Related Conditions in Metro Manila and Albay

Designing and Building with Nature: Showcasing a Climate Change Resilient Human Settlement in Sorsogon City

Climate resilient farming communities in Agusan del Norte through innovative risk transfer mechanisms

A2C2: A Local Governance Reform Model for Climate Resilient Development in Bicol Region

Target BeneficiariesPolicy and decision‐makers from key National 

Government Agencies  (NGAs);43++ Local Government Units (LGUs);Five Project Demo SitesSelect NGOs and Academe (PNCC,  PATLEPAM)

Sectoral Focus (CHAW‐F)C‐ Coastal; H‐ Health; A‐ Agriculture; W‐Water; F‐ Forestry

Under the READY Project funded by UNDP

16. Zamboanga del Sur (City) 31. Quezon (Lopez-Calauag)

1. Surigao del Norte 17. Laguna 32. Oriental Mindoro (Calapan)

2. Surigao del Sur 18. Quirino 33. Camarines Norte (Daet)

3. Southern Leyte 19. Agusan del Sur 34. Aklan (Kalibo)

4. Ormoc 20. Nueva Viscaya 35. Cebu (Metro)

5. Bohol 21. Cagayan 36. Western Samar (Catbalogan)

6. Aurora 22. Isabela 37. Zamboanga del Norte (Dipolog)

7. Porac, Pampanga 23. Zamboanga Sibuegay 38. Bukidnon (Malaybalay)

8. Cavite 24. Rizal 39. Davao Oriental (Mati)

9. Catanduanes 25. Iloilo 40. Sarangani (General Santos City)

10. Eastern Samar 26. Ilocos Norte 41. CARAGA (Agusan Norte, Butuan City)

11. Northern Samar 27. Benguet (Baguio and La Trinidad)

42. CAR (Mt. Province, Bontoc)

12. Zambales (Subic) Under READY Project funded by GOP

43. ARMM

13. Antique 28. Pangasinan (Dagupan) Other Priority Areas14. Ilocus Sur (Vigan) 29. Batanes (Basco) 44. Liguasan Marsh

15. Abra 30. Bulacan (DRT San Miguel)

Downscaled HadCM3 A1B scenario for 2020 and 2050 for 43 LGUs using PRECIS

Started downscaling ECHAM4 A2 scenarios for 43 LGUs using PRECIS

Projected changes in future climates in Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines

DJF_2020

MAM_2020 MAM_2050

DJF_2050 Projections formean temp are likely to increase by

0.9 - 1.1 oC in 2020

&1.7 - 2.2 oC in

2050.

Projections formean temp are likely to increase by

0.9 - 1.2 oC in 2020

&1.9 - 2.3 oC in

2050.

Future Plans

• Climate Change Scenario:Downscaling of GCMs 

• Impacts assessment using different emission scenario

• National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation 

Thank you!