Climate Change Here and Now: Forest Ecosystem Impacts Steven
McNulty Southern Global Change Program USDA Forest Service
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Three Goals of This Presentation Participants will describe two
examples of impacts of climate change on ecosystems Participants
will identify two impacts of climate change on forests Participants
will identify three ecosystem services that forests provide
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Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change
Impacts on the US, NAST 2000
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Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts
on the US, NAST 2000
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Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change
Impacts on the US, NAST 2000
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Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton Beaubien and
Freeland I.J.Biomet 44:53-59, 2000
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The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years
averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most
consistent temperature records.
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Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability
Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity WaSSI-CB
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Water Shortages
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West Compared to East: Different Demands on Water
Resources
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Model Rationale Supply Demand Climate Land use change Anthro
Ground water
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WaSSI = Total water supply from all sectors Total water demand
from all sectors Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)
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Reductions in Forest Water Quality Increased sedimentation
(turbidity)
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Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal
proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8 mm) Karl et al. 1996 BW 7
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Projected Brook Trout Intact Range 2006 2026 2056
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Water Trade-Offs Water Yield v. Forest Carbon Gain
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Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability
Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity (Law Model) (Constanza Model)
(Sun Model) WaSSI-CB
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> 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE
Large Scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature From
Westerling et al. 2005
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Changes in Tree Distribution
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Sugar maple Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Insect Impacts on Forests
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Insect Caused Forest Loss Mountain pine beetle Pine beetle
damage Forest damage
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Nearly 4 million acres (and 38 million trees) of mature white
spruce forest on the Kenai Peninsula have been killed by a growing
population of spruce bark beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) since
about 1987. We attribute the beetle infestation to rising average
temperatures in South-Central Alaska in both winter and summer.
More beetle larvae can survive, and higher summer temperatures
allow the insects to mature faster and complete a two-year life
cycle in one year. Edward Berg and Kenneth Raffa Future Insect
Impacts on Forest Carbon Loss
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Hurricane Impacts on Forests
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Hurricane Zone in the US
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T.R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
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Recap of Talk Climate change will impact ecosystems - Change in
the growing season starting date - Change in the growing season
length - Changes in location of ecosystem productivity Climate
change will impact forests through - increased water stress -
increased fire risk - increased hurricane damage - increased soil
erosion Ecosystem Services Provided - Water - Fisheries
(recreation) - Paper, timber, carbon sequestration
