Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs and Water Resources climate change/2... · Conférence Internationale Eau et Climat "Dams and Climate" workshop July 11, 2016 - Rabat, Morocco Climate

Conférence Internationale Eau et Climat "Dams and Climate" workshop July 11, 2016 - Rabat, Morocco

Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs

and Water Resources

Dr. Denis Aelbrecht (EDF-CIH, France) Chairman of ICOLD Technical Committee

on Climate Change, Dams and Reservoirs

ICOLD Technical Committee on Global Climate Change "Dams and Climate" workshop, July 11, 2016 - Rabat (Morocco) | 2

Climate and Water:

a hot topic

Intl Water Power & Dam Construction

May 2016


" Whiskey is for drinking,

Water is for fighting over "

Mark Twain


Evidence of man-induced impact on global warming

From IPCC, Assessment Report 4 (2007) - similar in AR5 (2013)


Climate and Dams / Reservoirs / Water Resources systems are interacting closely

- impacts on average flow regimes

- impacts on extreme floods

- impacts on extreme droughts and air T°

- impacts on water uses and related risks

- Hydropower : reduction of GHG emissions

- GHG emissions associated to reservoirs

- dams and reservoirs as mitigation tools

or responses to climate effects


Majority of the world is vulnerable to effects of : - global Air temperature increase - and regionally variable Precipitation changes (+/-)

resulting in : - change in seasonal and annual inflows patterns - change in droughts / flood frequency and intensity with local / regional variations (latitude, snowmelt-driven basins, …)

ICOLD Response: Formation of Climate Change Technical Committee Not interested in The Debate on the Cause of Climate Change Interested in Providing Recommendations for Local Solutions

to a Global Concern

GLOBAL CLIMATE TRENDS


1. Executive Summary 2. Objectives of ICOLD Bulletin 3. What Is at Risk 4. Climate Evolution: Facts, Uncertainties 5. Climate-Induced Impact and Risk Assessment 6. Climate Is One of the Drivers 7. Opportunities for New Storage and Management 8. GHG emissions linked to reservoirs and water resources 9. Case Studies 10. ICOLD Recommendations 11. References 12. Acknowledgements 13. Glossary 14. Appendix of Case Studies

ICOLD Technical Bulletin Chapters


ICOLD bulletin : Technical chapters and authors

Chapter 3 : What is at risk ? D. Aelbrecht (France)

Chapter 4 : Climate evolution: facts, uncertainties S. Bergström (Sweden), Ingjerd Haddeland (Norway), Claes-Olof Brandesten (Sweden)

Chapter 5 : Climate-induced impact and risk assessment R. Roy, M. Braun, D. Chaumont (Canada), D. Aelbrecht (France)

Chapter 6 : Climate is one of the drivers, among others R. Lemons (USA)

Chapter 7 : Opportunities for new storage and management G. Annandale (USA)

Chapter 8 : Green House Gas emissions associated to dams & reservoirs M. Demarty (Canada), F. Sanchez (Spain)

Chapter 9 : Case studies of adaptation, to climate effect M. Airey (UK), Trevor Jacobs, D. Stewart (Australia), T. Sugiura (Japan)

Chapter 10 : ICOLD recommendations M. Airey (UK), Trevor Jacobs (Australia)


Insights of

Technical Chapters


De

ns

ity

of

pro

ba

bilit

y

Climatic parameter

(b) change in variabilityBaseline

scenario 2

De

ns

ity

of

pro

ba

bilit

y

Climatic parameter

(c) changes in both average

and variability

Baseline

scenario 3

De

ns

ity

of

pro

ba

bilit

y

Climatic parameter

(a) change in averageBaseline

scenario 1

Baseline

reference

Change in

variability Change in

Average

or both

changes !

Chapter 3: What does “Change” mean?


Risk = Hazard Exposure Consequences

Water Resources systems

Irrigation

Water Supply

Power Generation

Other Industrial Needs

Flood Control

Environmental Needs

Inland Navigation

Chapter 3: What is at Risk?

Hydro-meteo forcings

Average air temperature

Extreme Air temperature

Average rainfall

Extreme rainfall

Floods and droughts

Evapotranspiration

…


Historical data, Trends, Modeling

Global Modeling

Chapter 4: Climate Evolution Facts and Uncertainties

Regional Modeling

Site-Specific Studies


Air Temperatures

Past (statistical) Trends

• Warming for last 150 years :

linear trend 0.85 deg.C

on period [1880;2012]

• Significant increase since

years 80’ and 90’

• Not increased as much in

last 15 years (natural

variability)

IPCC Projections

• End of 21st Century : + 1.5 to 2.0

deg.C warmer than 1850 to 1900

• Greater Extremes

Changes are

more certain …



Past (statistical) Trends

• Confidence on trends depends

on latitude : • Mid-lat. : since 1950, medium

confidence for average

increase

• Elsewhere : low confidence of

+/- trends

• Huge spatial variability

• Changes in Extremes : medium

confidence to some regional

increase (intensity, frequency)

IPCC Projections

• High latitudes : increase

• Low latitudes : decrease

• Mid latitudes : ?

• Potential greater extremes in

some regions


Precipitation Changes are more

uncertain …


IPCC Recommends:

1. Define Problem and

Baseline scenario

2. Select Method

3. Test method / sensitivity

4. Select climate scenarios

5. Assess biophysical /

socio-economic impacts

6. Assess autonomous

adjustments

7. Evaluate adaptation

strategies

Figure 5.1 Illustration of the analysis design quantifying the benefits for

adaptation (modified from Roy et al., 2008)

Chapter 5: Climate Induced Impact and Risk Assessment



Defining Projections of Climate Scenarios

" What if " postulated scenarios

• based on past observations or IPCC global

projections

• what if + 1º C or + 2º C for air temperature

• what if +/- 5%, 10% or 20% in annual

precipitation

Climate model-based scenarios

• Consider families of GHG emissions scenarios

• Consider ensemble of "serious" GCM models

• Take care to downscaling issue

• Coupling GCM models outputs to hydrological

and water resources management models



20 j 80 j

Déstockage Remplissage Déstockage

Δ amplitude

- 30 Mm3

(- 30%)

Déstockage Remplissage

Déstockage

Example - Imagine_2030 project Impacts of climate change on water resources of the Garonne river:

- irrigation needs

- hydropower generation

Change of storage capacity management for irrigation Change of annual inflows



20 j 80 j

Déstockage Remplissage Déstockage

Δ amplitude

- 30 Mm3

(- 30%)

Déstockage Remplissage

Déstockage

Example - Imagine_2030 project Impacts of climate change on water resources of the Garonne river:

- irrigation needs

- hydropower generation

Change of storage capacity management for irrigation Change of annual inflows

Assuming priority on irrigation needs,

the impact on Hydropower is :

- less annual power

- less flexibility


From R. Jones (CSIRO, 2000)

Probabilistic approaches

• Typical outputs : by 2070,

Prob (V<Vannual_50%) = 20%

• Advantages : suitable to

handle uncertainty and

quantify risk

• Drawbacks : method is

more complex, and you

need to know your risk

limits in probabilistic

terms !!

V_crit

V_crit



Chapter 6: Climate Is Just One of the Drivers

Demographic Evolution

Technology Evolution

Social and Regulatory Evolution

Economic Factors

Sedimentation


Figure 7.1. Global Groundwater

Depletion (data from Konikow 2011)

3.5 times more

groundwater is used

worldwide than what is

naturally replenished

Figure 7.9. Net total and per capita global

reservoir storage space (Annandale, 2013

Negative trend in per

capita reservoir storage space

Chapter 7: Opportunities for New Storage


More Storage is needed to offset

• Decreasing groundwater reserves

• Decreasing reservoir storage per capita

• Climate change variability increase

Water supply: new storage capacity to

be considered as complementary to

• Desalination

• Conservation

Chapter 7: Opportunities for New Storage


Figure 8.3. Main processes leading to GHG emissions

from reservoirs (from Demarty and Bastien, 2011)

Chapter 8: GHG emissions associated to reservoirs


Test

Figure 8.4 (A) summer CO2 emission rates for Quebec reservoirs

(B) annual CH4 emission rates for tropical reservoirs

Chapter 8: GHG emissions associated to reservoirs


• Impacts and adaptation opportunities vary

• Differ by region

• Differentiating factors include:

• Hydrological and system characteristics

• Region drying, wetting, extremely variable

• Infrastructure exist or is being developed?

• Living standards

• Cultural / indigenous values and practices

• Environmental water

Solution: a combination of

structural and functional changes

Chapter 9: Adaptation Strategy


Figure 9.1 – No Regrets Approach to Adaptive Management

Chapter 9: Adaptation Strategy


• The bulletin provides 6 case studies:

• Australia, Guyana, France, Japan, USA, Korea

• Africa not (enough) covered

• Some insights of 2 of them in next slides

Chapter 14: Appendix A Case Studies


Chamonix

« Les Bois »

power station

Adaptation of a hydropower station glacier water

intake structure to Glacier retreat in France

Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WARMER CONDITIONS


French glacier front retreat

1990 2002 2008



« Pessimistic » what if scenario

« Optimistic » what if scenario


French glacier retreat

Prediction of glacier front

evolution from 2008 to 2028

Study by LGGE Laboratory (France)


Generally higher latitudes

Japan and Sweden experiences

Upgrades to facilities, infrastructure and operations

Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WETTER CONDITIONS


Increasing dam height

Spillway upgrades

Improve flow forecasting

and storage management

Coordinated flood management

Updating flood criteria then developing operations models that provide flexibility

Water use

Sediment

Storage

Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO WETTER CONDITIONS


Water Conservation and Securing Water Supplies

• Increase in piping projects

• Increase in desalination projects

• Temporary and permanent water use restrictions

• Finding more efficient ways of managing water systems

• Better coordination and management on national, regional and local levels

Chapter 14 – Case Studies ADAPTING TO DRIER CONDITIONS


• Not ‘Future Scenario’ – ALREADY LIVING IT

• 10-Year Drought last three years SEVERE

• Severe stress on floodplain ecology

• Responded quickly with a range of adaptive measures


River Murray System in Southeast Australia


Adaptive Measures:

• Changed interstate water sharing arrangement

• Changed river system operations

• Prioritized both permanent and temporary drought contingency measures

• Reduced water allocations

• Institute State and Federal water planning – Includes setting and implementing “Sustainable Diversion Limits”

– Provisions for critical human water needs


River Murray System in Southeast Australia


Future ICOLD work on climate change issues:

“ Role of dams and reservoirs in climate change

mitigation and adaptation ”

Theme 1. Identify and manage water issues especially on water shortage or drought management:

– Contribution of dams and water storage to adaptation to changes in water resources

– Impact of climate change to existing water regulated systems, and natural water resources

– Opportunity for new dams and reservoirs to mitigate the impacts of CC

– Case studies, especially in semi-arid or arid regions linked to climate change (Africa, Middle-East, Asia, America, South-Europe, Australia)


“ Role of dams and reservoirs in climate change

mitigation and adaptation ”

Theme 2: Assess the role of hydropower in climate change mitigation. Identify climate-induced opportunities for hydropower (including pumped-storage) in new power generation mix, and as a balance of intermittent renewable power resources (wind, solar).

Important note : each of topics above should include lessons from

actual climate adaptation case studies: in particular, how uncertainties have been handled as well as multi-decades time horizons in the adaptation decision-making process

Future ICOLD work on climate change issues:

Conférence Internationale Eau et Climat "Dams and Climate" workshop July 11, 2016 - Rabat, Morocco

Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs

and Water Resources

THANK YOU

Documents

Climate Change, Dams, Reservoirs and Water Resources climate change/2... · Conférence Internationale Eau et Climat "Dams and Climate" workshop July 11, 2016 - Rabat, Morocco Climate