Climate Change ChallengesClimate Change Challengesfor Northern Infrastructure for Northern Infrastructure

Don Hayley P.EngDon Hayley P.EngEBA Engineering Consultants Ltd.EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd.

Northern Development Ministers ForumNorthern Development Ministers Forum

Permafrost, Ice and Climate ChangePermafrost, Ice and Climate Change

•• Learn from the pastLearn from the past•• Look to the futureLook to the future•• Adaptation by technology improvementsAdaptation by technology improvements•• Address the challengesAddress the challenges

–– New buildings (defined life)New buildings (defined life)–– Site reclamation (perpetual) Site reclamation (perpetual) –– Winter (Ice) roads and resource developmentWinter (Ice) roads and resource development

Dawson City, YTDawson City, YT

1973

Construction on permafrost 100+ years agoConstruction on permafrost 100+ years ago

Early Buildings on Permafrost, Dawson YTEarly Buildings on Permafrost, Dawson YT((1898 to 2005)1898 to 2005)

Main Street 1972

Hudson Bay Railway Hudson Bay Railway The Pas to Churchill, The Pas to Churchill,

ManitobaManitoba(Constructed, 1910 to 1930)(Constructed, 1910 to 1930)

•• Discontinuous permafrost Discontinuous permafrost encountered for the first time encountered for the first time on a major transportation on a major transportation project project

•• The first recognition that The first recognition that embankments over permafrost embankments over permafrost must be continuous fill must be continuous fill structuresstructures

•• Terrain comprises the most Terrain comprises the most extensive extensive peatlandspeatlands in the in the world (Hudson Bay Lowlands)world (Hudson Bay Lowlands)

60 Years of Track Settlement60 Years of Track Settlement––an indicator of climate change?an indicator of climate change?

Hudson Bay Railway - North of Gillam, Man. 1976

Railway Grade Railway Grade –– Disappearing ActDisappearing Act

HBR - North of Gillam, Man.

•• Collaborative projectCollaborative project–– Government, university, Government, university,

industryindustry•• Premise Premise –– Climate change is Climate change is

just one more uncertainty for just one more uncertainty for design engineersdesign engineers

•• Projects are screened based Projects are screened based on consequenceson consequences

•• Guidance on climate warming Guidance on climate warming scenarios based on latitude scenarios based on latitude and seasonand season

An Engineering Tool An Engineering Tool For Managing Risk For Managing Risk

Associated with Associated with Climate ChangeClimate Change

Project Ranking By RiskProject Ranking By RiskExamples From EBA FilesExamples From EBA Files

EKATI Dam A

A

B

Inuvik Health Centre

GNWT Hwy 3

Sensitivity

Con

sequ

ence

Arctic Landfills AC

Water Dam, EKATI Diamond MineWater Dam, EKATI Diamond Mine

Climate Change Assessment• Permafrost Sensitivity: Medium (short life,stable permafrost)• Failure Consequence: Catastrophic (environmental damage)• Analysis Requirement: A–Full quantitative impact analyses

Frozen sand and gravel core to retain waterFrozen sand and gravel core to retain water

Regional Health Centre, InuvikRegional Health Centre, Inuvik

Foundations complete, superstructure erection, October 15, 2001

Foundations complete, superstructure erection, October 15, 2001

Climate Change Assessment• Permafrost Sensitivity: High (Ground ice, sensitive region)• Failure Consequence: Major (Low settlement tolerance) • Analysis Requirement: A–Full quantitative impact analyses

Inuvik Climatic Assessment Inuvik Climatic Assessment Health Centre Foundation DesignHealth Centre Foundation Design

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

1 in 100 warm year

1 in 5 warm year

Mean Year (61-90)

Design Guide (PERD)

Best-fit line

--4.64.6

--6.86.8--7.57.5

--9.59.5

Design Life 30 years

Climatic Design Criteria Climatic Design Criteria Inuvik Health CentreInuvik Health Centre

•• Five consecutive 1 in 5 warm years followed Five consecutive 1 in 5 warm years followed by a 1 in 100 warm yearby a 1 in 100 warm year

•• Ten consecutive 1 in 5 warm yearsTen consecutive 1 in 5 warm years•• Global warming scenario +0.47°C per decade Global warming scenario +0.47°C per decade

(high sensitivity case from EC/PERD report)(high sensitivity case from EC/PERD report)

The foundation design was verified The foundation design was verified for each of the above criteriafor each of the above criteria

Defense Site Reclamation ProjectDefense Site Reclamation Project((DEW Line)DEW Line)

21 Sites69° LatitudeMAAT varies –9 to –15°CGround Temperature –5 to –12°C

Arctic LandfillsArctic Landfills(Distant Early Warning Site Reclamation)(Distant Early Warning Site Reclamation)

Climate Change Assessment• Permafrost Sensitivity: Various locations – ice rich to ice poor• Failure Consequence: Major• Analysis Requirement: C to A – qualitative or quantitative analyses

A structure left on the permafrost landscape in perpetuity A structure left on the permafrost landscape in perpetuity requires a high level of riskrequires a high level of risk--based analyses to consider all based analyses to consider all potential future consequences of climate warming. potential future consequences of climate warming.

Winter Roads Winter Roads Essential To Essential To RResource esource DDevelopmentevelopment

•• Use of ice covers for transportationUse of ice covers for transportation•• Seasonal Seasonal –– typically 70 to 90 days (southern NT)typically 70 to 90 days (southern NT)•• No significant grade constructionNo significant grade construction•• Low capital cost but high maintenanceLow capital cost but high maintenance•• Operating risks must be managedOperating risks must be managed•• Low environmental impactLow environmental impact

Current and Future Mining Prospects Current and Future Mining Prospects --Slave Geological ProvinceSlave Geological Province--

•• Winter road over ice Winter road over ice is the only practical is the only practical accessaccess

•• The limit on annual The limit on annual rere--supply has been supply has been reachedreached––no reserve no reserve capacitycapacity

Nico

LupinIzok

High Lake

Discovery

Con, Giant

Hope Lake

UluHackett

River

Colomac

GeorgeLake

Thor

DO 27

Diamond Deposit

Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter RoadTibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road

.

EKATI Diamond Mine

Diavik Diamond Mine

Dome LakeMaintenance Camp

Yellowknife

Lockhart Lake Rest Stop Snap Lake Project

Gahcho Kue

Lupin MineJericho Project

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

NUNAVUT

N.W.TNUNAVUT

Lac de Gras Rest Stop

50 km

100 km

150 km200 km

250 km300 km

350 km

400 km

450 km

0 km

500 km

550 km

•• CharacteristicsCharacteristics–– 600 Km Long600 Km Long–– 85% Over Lake Ice85% Over Lake Ice–– Normal Season 78 DaysNormal Season 78 Days

•• OperationsOperations–– Joint Venture of Joint Venture of

producing diamond producing diamond mines mines

•• UniquenessUniqueness–– The Most Significant The Most Significant

Use of Ice Covers For Use of Ice Covers For Transportation in the Transportation in the WorldWorld

Is Climate Change a Threat?Is Climate Change a Threat?

Winter Road Load Counts Winter Road Load Counts

Actual Truck Loads 1989-2007

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

# Tr

uck

load

s

Build EKATI Mine

Build Diavik Mine

Build Snap Lake Mine

Operate Lupin Gold Mine

2006 Shortfall2006 Shortfall

Projected Future Northbound TrafficProjected Future Northbound Traffic

Winter Road Truckloads to Ekati, Diavik, Tahera, Snap Lake & Gahcho KueSource: Ice Road Alternatives Study

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Nu

mbe

r of

Tru

ck L

oads

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 20272005

Year

Total Truck Loads 1989-2027

Max. 14,000

Climatic Uncertainty

Unknown

Managing the Risk of Ice Failure by Managing the Risk of Ice Failure by Technology ImprovementsTechnology Improvements

Failure resulting from speedFailure resulting from speed--related blowout, March 2001related blowout, March 2001

Technology ImprovementsTechnology ImprovementsIce capacity by stress analyses

•• More efficient use of BMore efficient use of B--trains for fuel haultrains for fuel haul•• Safe movement of heavy loadsSafe movement of heavy loads

100,000 kg GVW100,000 kg GVW

Technology ImprovementsTechnology Improvements

•• Optimization of traffic lanesOptimization of traffic lanes

Technology ImprovementsTechnology Improvements

•• Understanding ice Understanding ice deflectiondeflection

•• Improved Ice RadarImproved Ice Radar

What Happened in 2006?What Happened in 2006?

•• Great Slave Great Slave LakeLake––The Arctic The Arctic Hot Spot 2006Hot Spot 2006

•• The Warmest The Warmest Winter in 70 Winter in 70 Years of RecordYears of Record

Understanding Climatic Variability Understanding Climatic Variability

•• Freezing Index is a measure of winter severityFreezing Index is a measure of winter severity––higher is betterhigher is better•• The steeply dipping trend is a clear indication of climatic The steeply dipping trend is a clear indication of climatic

warmingwarming

FIGURE 5Correlation of Yearly Freezing Index for Yellowknife with Operating Season

Freezing Index Determines Operating DaysFreezing Index Determines Operating Days

2006

•• 2006 was unprecedented but the trends and extremes 2006 was unprecedented but the trends and extremes have been severe during the last decade. have been severe during the last decade.

•• There is a high risk of reoccurrence.There is a high risk of reoccurrence.

Evaluation of Alternatives?Evaluation of Alternatives?

FIGURE 6All Options Map

TransportationTransportationAlternativesAlternatives

•• Roads (South and North)Roads (South and North)•• Supplementary Winter Supplementary Winter

RoadsRoads•• RailRail•• AirAir•• HydroelectricHydroelectric

Seasonal Overland Road StudySeasonal Overland Road Study

•• ObjectiveObjective–– Replace 160 km of overReplace 160 km of over--ice road with ice road with

seasonal overland roadseasonal overland road

•• Advantages:Advantages:–– Less dependency on climate variabilityLess dependency on climate variability–– Extend season 30 daysExtend season 30 days–– Operating efficienciesOperating efficiencies–– Meets demand objectivesMeets demand objectives–– Environmental tradeoff with winter roadEnvironmental tradeoff with winter road

•• Disadvantages:Disadvantages:–– Rough bedrock terrainRough bedrock terrain–– Permitting complexity?Permitting complexity?–– CostCost

Winter RoadWinter Road

SORSOR

Climate Warming and Northern InfrastructureClimate Warming and Northern InfrastructureWhat’s the plan?What’s the plan?

•• Immediate DefenseImmediate Defense–– Contingency planningContingency planning–– Continue to invest in technologyContinue to invest in technology

•• PlanningPlanning–– Continue to evaluate transportation Continue to evaluate transportation

infrastructure optionsinfrastructure options–– Address the immediate needs now (SOR)Address the immediate needs now (SOR)

•• Strategic PartnershipsStrategic Partnerships–– IndustryIndustry--Government coGovernment co--funding (P3)funding (P3)–– Engage First NationsEngage First Nations