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Climate Change:Climate Change:
Challenges for Innovation Studies
Govindan Parayil
Professor
Center for Technology, Innovation and Culture
University of Oslo, [email protected]
Environment and DevelopmentEnvironment and Development
o Environment an afterthought of productiono Grow first and worry latero Environmental costs were externalizedo A case of market failureo Environmental pollution and regulationo Environmental protection and wealtho Environmental Kuznets Curve?
Emissions per head
A hypothetical environmental Kuznets curve
Income per capita
Environment and Environment and DevelopmentDevelopment
These approaches can at best solve local-level environmental problems
Smog, acid rain, effluent disposal etc.
Global warming too big and global problem to be addressed by existing environmental regulatory tools
Climate change can’t be solved as a simple externality problem
Need global and local solutions
The Science of Climate ChangeThe Science of Climate Change
GHGs and global warming (the greenhouse effect)
Initial doubts about the validity of the theory largely gone, but still some critics exist
Global consensus among climate scientists
How does the scientific enterprise work?
2005 was the hottest year on record; the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.
Source: Holdren (2007) based on J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)
Green bars show 95% confidence intervals
The Earth is getting warmer on the average
°C
Evidence for a human role: the last 1000 Evidence for a human role: the last 1000 yearsyears
Source: Holdren (2007) based on National Research Council, 2006
“Proxy” temperature reconstructions + 125-yr thermometer record
Direction & rate of temperature change switched suddenly in 1800s
The human role: CO2 build-up for the last 250 years tracks emissions from fossil fuels & deforestation
Fossil-fuel contribution is confirmed by reduced C-14 fraction in atmospheric CO2.
Fossil fuels provide 80% of civilization’s energy today.
Source: Holdren (2007)
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Doubling of pre-industrial levels of GHGs is likely to raise 2 – 5 degrees of global mean temperature during this century.
The “Hockey Stick” DebateThe effects of global warming are
already being feltWarming is intensifying the water
cycle, reinforcing existing patterns of water scarcity and increasing the risks of droughts and floods
The next 100 years compared to the last The next 100 years compared to the last 400 400 (Source: Holden, 2007)(Source: Holden, 2007)
Colored lines pre-2000 are proxy-based T reconstructions by different groups.
Gray band 2000-2100 shows range of scenarios for future developed by Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.
Continuation of recent trends (middle of band) leads by 2100 to temperatures not reached since the Eocene (25-35 million years ago), when sea level was 20-30 m higher.
Climate ChangeClimate Change
As the world warms, the risk of abrupt and large-scale changes in the climate will rise
IPCC and other scientific bodies such as national academies of sciences are unanimous in their stand on climate change due to GHGs
The body of evidence and the growing quantitative assessment of risks pose clear challenges to economics and innovation studies to come up with solutions
The Ethics and Economics of The Ethics and Economics of Climate ChangeClimate Change
Climate change is the result of the externality associated with GHGs emissions.
A case of market failure, according to economists.
The costs associated with climate change are not paid by those who create the emissions. It is being borne by others, especially those who did not partake in the growth and wealth.
The Ethics and Economics of The Ethics and Economics of Climate ChangeClimate Change
A tragedy of the commons On a global scaleIt is global in its causes and
consequencesThe impacts of climate change are
long-term and persistentMost GHGs until recently were created
by the wealthy industrialized societiesSo who should bear the responsibility
for mitigating climate change?
The Ethics and Economics of Climate The Ethics and Economics of Climate ChangeChange
Most of the adverse effects of climate change will be felt in poor and vulnerable societies
Eventually it will affect the rich, although they are better prepared to adapt in the short-term
There is also the question of inter and intra-generational equity
Implications of climate change for Implications of climate change for developmentdevelopment
While all nations will eventually feel the adverse effects of climate change, it will pose the most serious threat to developing countries.
The effect will be felt most seriously by the most vulnerable sections within developing countries who are at the margins of society
Most people in developing countries are dependent on subsistence agriculture while the rest live on livelihoods within the informal sector
Implications of climate change for Implications of climate change for developmentdevelopment
Floods and water shortages, vector-borne diseases, droughts,
Those who live on coastlines and shanties are also affected
Climate change poses long-term sustainability of the development process
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will not be met
In Sep 2000, 189 countries signed the UN Millennium Declaration, an international blueprint for poverty reduction with a target date of 2015:
Millennium Millennium DevelopmentDevelopment Goals Goals
Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerAchieve universal primary educationEmpower women and promote equality
among men and womenReduce under five morality by two-thirdsReduce maternal morality by three-
quartersReverse the spread of aids, especially
HIV/AIDS and malariaEnsure environmental sustainabilityCreate global partnership for development,
with targets for aid, trade and debt relief
Impacts of climate change on Impacts of climate change on developing regions: South Asia:developing regions: South Asia:India: Crucial annual monsoons could be
affected (threat to food security and drinking water); extreme climates lead to droughts and flooding.
Melting of Himalayan glaciers could affect the survival of several great rivers affecting the whole region, including China
Similar effects in Bangladesh, particularly floods and storms
Hundreds of millions could be pushed into poverty, negating the gains made against poverty
Impacts of climate change on Impacts of climate change on developing regionsdeveloping regions
Sub-Saharan Africa: More desertification and water
shortages Hundreds of millions will be pushed
into hungerMiddle East and North Africa Further shortage of waterPossibilities of intensifying conflicts over
water resourcesGlobal population movements due to
environmental catastrophes
UNDP Human Development Report 2006
The geography of water stress
What to do?What to do?
Adaptation: measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur.
Examples: changing consumption and agricultural practices, strengthening defenses against climate-related disease, and building more dams and dikes.
Mitigation: measures to reduce the pace & magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities.
Examples: reducing emissions of GHG, enhancing “sinks” for these gases, “geoengineering” to counteract the warming effects of GHG, new technologies.
Suffer (BAU)
Adaptation in the Developing Adaptation in the Developing WorldWorld
Poverty and developmental constraints will present obstacles to adaptation, but focused developmental policies can make some dent in the impact of climate change
Promote growth and diversification of economic activity
Enhancing resilience to disasters and improving disaster management
Investment in flood prevention, irrigation, water preservation
Investing in health and education
Investing in adaptation through:Investing in adaptation through:
Human capital (investing in health and education)
Social capital (Bring civil society in the development process - good governance)
Physical capital (infrastructure)Natural capital (protection of rain forests
and mangroves)Technology transfer and diffusion
Harnessing Markets & Institutions Harnessing Markets & Institutions for Adaptationfor Adaptation
Taxes to be imposed on emitters to offset the full social cost of their emissions (establishing carbon prices to reflect the damage caused by GHG emissions)
Quantity restrictions can limit the volume of emissions (using command and control approach)
Full set of property rights to be established (carbon trading)
Kyoto Protocol (CDM)
Harnessing Markets & Harnessing Markets & Institutions Institutions Cap and tradeCreating a global price for carbonTransition to a low carbon and zero
emission economyGlobal compact for technological
innovation (development, transfer and diffusion)
Technological innovation (Sustainable Innovation)
Thank you!
