Climate Change & Bangalore:

Science, Politics and Action

Climate Change & Bangalore:

Science, Politics and Action

Sharachchandra LeleEnv & Dev group

Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the

Environment

Outline 1: Science• how climate works and role of

GHGs• historical temperatures and

evidences of change• Projections • Likely impacts

Model 1: /4 = T4. = 1368 W/m2 T= 279K

Model 2: (1-a) /4 = T4. a = 0.31 T= 254K. (Adding an albedo is better science but gives a worse result.)

Actual Te = 288K. Missing: An atmosphere with a greenhouse effect (responsible for 34K of warming).

Earth’s Energy Balance

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

• Carbon Dioxide & Water Vapour• Methane, ozone, nitrous oxide,

chlorofluourocarbons (CFC)

Note• Greenhouse gases make life on

Earth possible, but too much is bad

Differences in GHGs• Different effectiveness of warming

– Depends on lifetime in atmosphere– Efficiency of molecule

• Described by global warming potential (GWP)

• Different contributions• CO2

around 60%~80% of historical warming

Evidence of CC

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf

Mauna Loa CO2 data, 1958-2004

Temperature Rise

Figure SPM.3

CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Temperature, CO2, and methane track each other

Projections

IEA Projection for World Primary Energy Demand

Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario

Coal

Oil

Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

1971

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Global emissions grow 50% between now and 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in

the 2020s

World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Global emissions grow by just over half between 2003 & 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries

OECD52%

China16%

India4%

Other11%

MENA6%

Transition

economies

11%OECD42%

China19%

India6%

Other16%

Transition

economies

9%

MENA8%

24 Gt

20302003

37 Gt

PredictionsMulti-model averages and assessed ranges

for surface warming

IPCC

Continued emissions will lead to further warming of 1.8ºC to 4ºC over the 21st century, depending on different scenarios

Impacts (Global)• Average temperature rise (old focus)• Increased frequency of extreme

evenets (more cyclones, more droughts)

• Melting of polar ice• Stopping of gulf stream (ice age in

Europe)• Sea level rise, coastal inundation

Impacts (India)• NOTE: we know very little of the details• Melting of Himalayan ice stocks, and

permafrost in Tibet>>changes in river flows

• More monsoon failures, or extreme events in an already monsoonal climate

• Collapse of monsoon system?• Increased ET >>crop stress• Sea level rise and resulting inundation• Complex effects: e.g., disease vectors

What is required to avert ‘catastrophic

CC’?• Catastrophic CC tentatively

defined as >2deg C rise• 50%-85% reduction in global

emissions of GHGs required by 2050

• Many are now saying even this will not be sufficient

Politics of climate change

• Who is to blame and how much?• Who should respond and how?

Who has contributed?

• Historically, LDCs have contributed only 20% or less

• In recent year: India ~1,750 million tCO2e in 2005 = 5% of the global GHG emission rate

• In per capita terms, India = 1.3 tCO2e in 1994, rising to 1.9 tCO2e in 2004 (still using 1994 population),

• So India is ranked 146th amongst all countries. • In contrast, per capita emissions of the USA were

around 23 tCO2e in 2004.• European countries are lower than USA but still

much higher than LDCs

Where do we need to go?

• In per capita terms, to avert catastrophic CC requires limiting GHG emissions to ~3 tCO2e/yr

Core problems1. Non-acceptance of CC as a probem (USA

position till recently!)2. Refusal to think in per capita terms or some

such equitable responsibility framework3. Equity has many dimensions

1. Historical contributions or present emissions only?2. Per capita using which population?3. Capacity to respond (affluence) or simply equal4. Extent of impact (e.g., coastal) or simply equal5. Etc etc

4. BUT, whatever the model, North has to cut back drastically and help the South also

Core problems 2• If commitments are to be made,

North insists on trading

Indian position so far• We did not create the problem• We are not currently contributing much (‘6th

largest emitter language makes little sense’)• Even if we introduce dramatic changes, our

contribution to the desired reductions will be small

• We cannot afford to cut back• We have a right to pollute in order to develop• We are anyway doing a lot• We need a lot of financial and tech transfer• Best way to adapt is to develop• We will not make binding commitments but

we are willing to make some money out of trading (?!)

Limitations of this position 1

• Science: – if the goal is 3 tCO2e/cap, we will

have to move away from business-as-usual anyway• TERI 2008: ~5 tCO2/capita in 2031 under

business-as-usual

– Current policies will put in place huge infrastructure that will be difficult to change

– North does not have the technology to help us anyway

Limitations 2• Ethical:

– There is no undifferentiated “we”: Indian elite is emitting at high level

– We cannot use Northern inaction to sidetrack us from environment-worthy actions today

– LARGER PICTURE: current developmental model needs to be questioned anyway!

– CC overlaps with other problems

Limitations 3• Strategic:

– We will feel the burden of impact heavily, so some compromise that leads to a climate treaty will be ok

– At least invest in adaptation– We are early in the curve: develop

technologies that we can actually market to the North

Bangalore level issues• Focus on Mitigation or adaptation?• Dilemmas of unilateral mitigation

efforts (national or local)– How does it help if no one else is

doing it– Will we get co-opted, or

undermine our equity position?• Can we find win-win with other

local issues?

Possible overlaps• Air pollution and CO2 emissions• Traffic and CO2 emissions• Electricity scarcity, building

energy, & CO2 emissions• Water scarcity and CC adaptation