Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Bernd Brouns

Research Group „Energy, Transport, and Climate Policy”

11th EADI General Conference

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”

23 September 2005

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 2

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

The climate is already changing...

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 3

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Zur Anzeige wird der QuickTime™ Dekompressor „Foto - JPEG“

benötigt.

Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 4

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Zur Anzeige wird der QuickTime™ Dekompressor „Foto - JPEG“

benötigt.

Global average surface temperature

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 5

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Zur Anzeige wird der QuickTime™ Dekompressor „Foto - JPEG“

benötigt.

Kilimanjaro(Tanzania)

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 6

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Zur Anzeige wird der QuickTime™ Dekompressor „Foto - JPEG“

benötigt.

Upsala Glacier (Argentina)

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 7

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is

attributable to human activities.” (IPCC 2001)

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 8

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Vulnerability of human societies and natural systems due to

I. Increased frequency and/or severity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and windstorms.

II. Slow but continuous change of climatic conditions such as temperature increase, sea level rise, change of precipitation patterns, ice melting.

Future impacts of climate change

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 9

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Bewertungsskala: --, -, 0, +, ++

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 10

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Increases in precipitation will occur during high flow season but may not alleviate dry season problems.

Most vulnerable regions are central Asia, southern Africa and countries around the Mediterranean Sea.

Climate change increases water resource stresses in some regions, but decreases them in others.

People living in water-stressed regions from 1.7 million to around 5 million by 2025.

Projected impacts on water availability

Source: IPCC (2001); Arnell (2004)

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 11

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

Crop yield responses to climate change vary widely.

Even though increased CO2 concentration can stimulate crop growth and yield, that benefit may not always overcome the adverse effects of excessive heat and drought.

In some temperate areas potential

Projected impacts on agriculture and food security

Source: IPCC (2001); Parry et al. (2004)

yield increase for small increases of temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes; In most (sub)tropical regions potential yields are projected to decrease for most projected increases of temperature.

Climate change will worsen food security in Africa.

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 12

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

“Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most

vulnerable.” (IPCC 2001)

Bernd Brouns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy 13

Panel “Environment and Human Rights”Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South

For climate policy: The definition of long-term climate goals must take into account the human rights of those who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

For human rights policy: climate change endangers basic rights of people and its economic/social/cultural survival.

What does that mean?

Thank you

for your attention!

Any further questions? Please contact

bernd.brouns@wupperinst.org