Climate change and the risks it poses to the world’s hottest sea

Seminar for Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science (KFAS)13th October 2021

John Pinnegar

ClimateScientist

CefasCefas is an ‘Executive Agency’ of the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

We were established in 1902 to provide advice to government on marine and freshwater fisheries as well as the environment

~550 staff based at two specialist laboratories in Lowestoft and Weymouth, plus dedicated offices at UK ports

We now work all around the World, but especially in GCC countries and Small Island States (SIDs)

We have an office in Kuwait, associated with the UK Embassy

iMC3• The International Marine Climate Change Centre (iMC3)

brings together expertise from across Cefas to provide scientific evidence and applied advice on marine climate change.

• We work all around the World, but particularly in the ROPME region, the Caribbean, UK Overseas Territories and around the British Isles

• We provide advice to the UK government but also international organisations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Regional cooperation…

ROPME is the Regional Organization for

the Protection of the Marine Environment

As part of the UK‐Gulf Marine Environment

Partnership (UK‐GMEP) we are helping

ROPME to develop a region-wide climate

change strategy

We conducted a regional Climate Change

Risk Assessment (CCRA), based on our

experience with the UK CCRA

The ROPME ‘Regional Marine Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy’

• The 2013 ROPME ‘State of the Marine Environment Report’ (SOMER) highlighted a need to undertake more detailed examination of climate change risks, to raise public awareness of these risks and review the capacity of the Region to respond (ROPME, 2013).

• The work programme to develop a “Regional Marine Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy” for the RSA was launched in 2019.

• Products include: (1) a climate change evidence report, (2) a climate change risk assessment, (3) a blue carbon inventory.

Evidence Report

http://ropme.org/430_Tech_Reports_Summary_EN.clx

(Peer reviewed by recognised regional experts)

The world’s hottest sea…

Alosairi et al. (2020)⁎

Extreme sea surface temperatures reached 37.6 °C, on 30th July 2020 in Kuwait Bay, at the offshore station KISR01

Fish kill incidents were reported at the northern edge of the Gulf

The Gulf has been identified as the warmest water body world-wide (Bargahi et al. 2020 and Brandl et al. 2020)

Recent satellite imagery indicated that the Gulf frequently experiences the highest SST globally, exceeding 36.0 °C

Kuwait air temperature (1901-2020)

Hot, salty, sour and breathless!Temperature Salinity Ocean acidification Low oxygen Cyclones &

storms

Monsoon Sea level rise

I-RSA already one of warmest seas (>36°C)

SST could increase by 2.8–4.2 °C

High evaporation leads to very saline waters

Salinity increased by 0.5–1.0% over the past 60 years

pH in the RSA could decrease by ~ 0.25 units by 2050

Areas of low oxygen concentration (OMZs) are expected to become larger and more persistent

The number of severe tropical cyclones in the O-RSA and M-RSA may increase by the end of this century

Projections for 2100 suggest a weakening of the Indian winter monsoon in the Arabian Sea

Sea-level rise of 2.2 mm per year has been estimated for the I-RSA

Coral reefs

There has been a rapid decline in coral reefsacross most of the RSA in the last two decades.

This has been linked to a wide range of climaticdrivers as well as other human pressures.

Repeated and widespread bleaching events havetaken place across both the Inner and Middle RSAdue to increasing summer water temperatures.

In future decades, most reefs in the Inner RSAwill be under threat from the combined effectsof warming, ocean acidification and other localstressors.

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

HABs in the RSA are an important issue and theirgeographical scale and persistence appear tobe increasing.

HABs can cause severe disruption and damage, including:

• blocking cooling water intakes in coastal desalination and industrial plants,

• large-scale mortality of fish and other marine organisms.

Currently, a link between occurrence of HABs and climate change in the RSA has not yet been fully established.

Fish and FisheriesUp to 10% of fish species occurring in the InnerRSA may become regionally extinct by the end ofthe century as a result of increasing temperatureand salinity.

Productivity of important pelagic fish speciessuch as tuna and sardine in the Middle and OuterRSA may decline due to an expansion of theoxygen minimum zone.

Following coral bleaching events, reef fishassemblages have been observed to change.

In 2020 we will carry out a more detailed assessment of fish and fisheries (as well as possible adaptation actions)

The ‘long list’ of key risksAn initial ‘long-list’ comprised 15 risks to biodiversity and habitats, and 30 risks to economy and society

Biodiversity & Habitats Economy & Society

Assessing the risks…

• 16 technical experts from across the RSA were invited to

a workshop in Oman (12-14 November 2019), based on

their relevant work and expertise

• The ‘long list’ of risks was revised by lumping and

splitting (to 23 biodiversity, 22 societal)

• Risks were scored based on their perceived ‘proximity’

and ‘magnitude’

• Confidence scores were assigned, based on the level of

agreement and the amount of available evidence

Confidence scoring

Proximity scoring

PROXIMITY (TIME to consequence(s) occurring)

1 Over 50 years

2 Within next 50 years

3 Within next 20 year

4 Now

• For each risk identified, a score was assigned, based on the perceived ‘proximity’ or urgency.

• Risks or impacts that are thought to be occurring already were assigned a score of ‘4’

• Risks that are anticipated in the more distant future wereassigned a score of ‘1’.

Magnitude (severity) scoring

Each risk was scored overall

in terms of magnitude,

taking into account

economic, environmental

and social concerns

Overall scoringThe formula that used to combine scores is as follows:

100 ×𝑀𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒

3

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑦

4

This means that the lowest possible score is 8.3 and highest

possible score will be 100.

Scores above 60 were considered ‘severe’.

Risk Proximity Magnitude Score Confidence

HABs 4 3 100 Med

Coral reef 4 3 100 Very High

Dugong 3 3 75 Med

Phytoplankton 4 2 66.7 High

Jellies 4 2 66.7 Med

Pelagic fish 4 2 66.7 Low

Benthic inverts 4 2 66.7 Med

Corals (species) 4 2 66.7 Very High

Demersal fish 3 2 50 Low

Turtles 3 2 50 High

Seabirds 3 2 50 Low

Waterbirds 3 2 50 Med

Mangroves 3 2 50 Low

Rocky shore 3 2 50 Med

Deep sea 3 2 50 Med

Zooplankton 4 1 33.3 Low

Microbes 4 1 33.3 Low

Saltmarsh, etc 2 2 33.3 Low

Macroalgal 2 2 33.3 Low

Seagrass 3 1 25 Low

Sandy beach 3 1 25 Low

Cetaceans 2 1 16.7 Med

AIS 2 1 16.7 Med

8 top biodiversity risks

For the entire ROPME Sea Area

15 lower ranked biodiversity risks

RiskI-RSA

proximity

I-RSA

magnitudeI-RSA score

HABs 4 3 100

Coral reef 4 3 100

Phytoplankton 4 3 100

Corals (species) 4 3 100

Dugong 3 3 75

Jellies 3 2 50

Pelagic fish 3 2 50

Benthic inverts 3 2 50

Demersal fish 3 2 50

Turtles 3 2 50

Seabirds 3 2 50

Waterbirds 3 2 50

Rocky shore 3 2 50

Seagrass 3 2 50

Mangroves 2 2 33

Microbes 4 1 33

Saltmarsh, etc 2 2 33

Cetaceans 2 2 33

Zooplankton 3 1 25

Sandy beach 3 1 25

Macroalgal 2 1 17

AIS 2 1 17

Deep sea 0 0 0

Inner ROPME Sea Area

5 top biodiversity risks

No risks with a score in the 60s

18 lower ranked biodiversity risks

12 most severe risks (in order)…(1) Damage to reefs (2) Harmful blooms

(3) Coastal communities (4) Fisheries

(5) Flooding of infrastructure

(6) Desalinisation plants

(7) Industry & energy

(8) Disruption to transport

(9) Plankton productivity

(10) Coral health (11) Proliferation of jellyfish

(12) Impact on shellfish

100 100 75 75 75 75

75 75 67 67 67 67

But what about the dugongs?• The I-RSA (Qatar and UAE) hosts

internationally-important populations of dugong

(2nd only to Australia)

• Indirect effects of climate change on seagrass

are expected to have substantial impacts on

dugong abundances and distributions

• Dugongs are not present at all in the M-RSA

and O-RSA so they received a lower

‘magnitude’ score overall

• Within the I-RSA (Gulf), changes in dugong

abundance and distribution was highlighted as

a severe risk.

Thank youContact details

Email: john.pinnegar@cefas.co.ukTwitter: @johnkpinnegar