a100%renewable

future

“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius , which would have …

…devastating consequences for the planet.”

“We have 5 years to change the energy system…

…or have it changed”

Fatih Birol

IEA Chief Economist

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs

~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007

~ 5.9% 2009-2010

~ 3.2 % 2010-2011

(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)

Things are getting worse!

Global CO2 emission trends?

The State of Play

“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science”

Copenhagen Accord (2009)

Committee on Climate Change global budget has 56% chance of exceeding 2C

UK Government adopts a pathway with a 63% chance of exceeding 2C

The Challenge

CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous

climate change (2°C) It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon

budget) This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of

climate change- from long term gradual reductions- to urgent & radical reductions

UK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050EU 60%-80% 2050Bali 50% 2050

The Challenge

“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”

Anderson & Bows 2008

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Low DL

Low DH

Medium DL

Medium DH

High DL

High DH

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak

Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

Total Greenhouse Gas Emission PathwaysAR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issio

ns o

f C

O 2 a

lon

e (

GtC

O 2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 2015 peak Medium DL

2015 peak High DL

2015 peak High DH

2020 peak High DL

2020 peak High DH

Even then total

decarbonisation by

~2035-45

necessary

… and for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak)

13 of 18 scenarios

‘impossible’

10-20% annual reductions – even for a high probability of exceeding 2°CGlobally: no emission

space for coal, gas, or shale – even with CCS!

a100%renewable

future

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Growth 3.5% p.a

Peak 2025

Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!)

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Peak ~2010

Reduction ∞% p.a.

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011

~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

The Problems All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate

change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give negative emissions (geoengineering)

Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power

Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic Recent historical emissions massaged Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed Reduction rate universally dictated by economists Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers

and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”

And 4oC? Emissions must peak no later than 2020 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative At least it’s achievable…

The Downside For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean And an increase on the hottest days of:

6°C - 8°C in China 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe 10°C -12°C in New York

And in low latitudes 4°C gives up to 40% reduction in maize and rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

The SituationThere is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with an organised global community

is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’

is devastating to the majority of eco-systems

and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).

Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs

Energy Emissions 10% reduction year-on-year

Impossible?

Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of global population

Including *probably* everyone in this roomAnyone who ever sets foot on a planeAnyone in the UK earning over ~£30k

And Wales?

Wales leading the way

“Wales is a definite leader in promoting sustainable development”

Wales leading the way?Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar (normalised to 2003)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

EnglandNorthern IrelandScotlandWales

Wales leading the way?Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar (partly normalised to 2003)

2003200420052006200720082009201020110

5

10

15

20

25

South EastEast MidlandsEast West MidlandsLondonNorth WestNorth EastSouth WestYorkshire and the HumberWales

Wales leading the way?Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)

(MW per 1000 people)

a100%renewable

future

dim mwy o nwy

Slides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/ Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16 Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (with permission)Slide 24 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/25/jonathon-porritt-wales-is-a-definite-leader-in-promoting-sustainable-development-91466-31898347/Slide 29 http://www.climate-justice-now.org/leave-it-in-the-ground-cop17-illustration/

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